Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equity market was mixed as investors weighed the risk of inflation with economic growth accelerating. The Dow Jones Industrial Index is down on a second consecutive day, dropped 0.77% on Friday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index pared its weekly losses, with communication stocks led the gain and financial and real estate shares fell behind. US 10-year treasury yield rose 0.55%.

The Federal Reserve will relax its Supplementary Leverage Ratio on banks to pre-pandemic level. In response to market panic back in last March, the Fed had let banks to exclude Treasuries and deposits in SLR calculation. However, this relief will lapse March 31 as planned, the Fed said in a Friday statement.

The first high-level talks between China and US since President Biden took office quickly descended into recrimination. The largest two economies criticized each other over human rights, trade, and international alliances. In response to Biden’s toughness, China accused “US wasn’t qualified to speak to China from a position of strength.” Despite wide expectation of divergence in the first meeting, investors are growing concerns over the development in these fiery talks.

Here is Bloomberg’s key takeaways from BoJ monetary policy:

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Euro was on the back foot against the US greenback as US bond yield advanced to 1.74%. As the mutated coronavirus has taken hold in Italy, Prime Minister Mario Draghi pushed most part of the country into another lock down, set to expire in early April. The latest restriction will significantly deepned the current economic contraction. Thus, the Euro bears are here to stay.

Cable was the worst performer among its G-7 peers, dipped 0.4% on Friday. The Sterling was weighed down by slowdown of its vacination campaign. Around 38% of UK’s population received the first dose of vaccine, but only 2.6% administered the second dose. Investors are concerned that slowing supply may derail exit from the current lockdown.

Aussie slipped 0.14% amid downbeat retail sales. Australian retail sales declined by 1.1% in February, missed expecation of 0.4% growth. However, the commodity linked is generally resilient to the rebounding dollar greenback, dipped only 0.23% on a weekly basis.

Gold continued to recover albeit higher bond yields, rallied 0.31%. We are witnessing a deceleration in sell-offs among the largest Gold ETFs. SPDR Gold ETF holding was essentially unchanged for the week of March 15^th, whereas iShares Gold Trust holding only decreased 0.02 million ounces in the past two weeks. Perhaps, we could see some dip-buying as the non-yield metal is oversought recently.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily & Monthly Chart)

Euro dollar is undergoing a double-top trading pattern on the daily chart. In order to complete this pattern, the bears need a solid breakthrough from neckline of 1.19. On the downside, price would fall onto nearest support of 1.1778, last seen in last November. Conversely, resurgence to 1.195 resistance could offer bulls the chance to pile in, and create momentum to reclaim 1.2. As we mentioned in previous analysis, recent selling bias is actually a bigger retracement on the monthly chart, thus it is completely conceivable for the first scenario to play out itself. MACD slightly favors a bearish trend.

Resistance: 1.1954, 1.209, 1.221

Support: 1.1778, 1.163

AUDNZD (Daily Chart)

AUDNZD is trapped within an ascending triangle, and price is clinging to the ceiling around 1.083. An asending triangle usually points to a bullish trend. Yesterday’s solid long body candlestick has indicated demand for the Aussie are overwhelming compare to Kiwi. In fact, this is bulls’ strongest contest to 1.083 resistance, and we expect sellers to surrender this level. Further in the north, the antipodean pair could eye for 1.093, possibly advance toward 1.1 hurdle. MACD on the daily chart also lends support to the bulls.

Resistance: 1.083, 1.093, 1.1

Support: 1.064, 1.057

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold is still constrained by a descending trendline, which is in line with our forecast. However, price seems to be sticky on the trendline, implying a deminishing pressure from this dynamic resistance. That being said, market may take a breather from recent exteme bearishness on precious metal thanks to Federal Reverse’s dovish tone on Wednesday, thus reviving risk-off tone. More observations are needed amid tentative market movement. If price manged to stand above the downward trendline, then it would look to contest 50% Fibonacci of $1765. Conversely, bearish bias would persist and accelerate if bulls fail to retake the driver seat.

Resistance: 1765, 1839

Support: 1691, 1670, 1600

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

In the US market, Nasdaq fell as the US Treasury yields hit another highest level in more than a year amid the concern of letting inflation accelerate after the FOMC. The 10- year US Treasury hiked to as high as 1.75% for the first time since January 2020 even though the Fed has announced that currently there is no plan to rise interest rates anytime soon until 2023. In the meantime, the 30- year yield has breached 2.5% for the first time since August 2019. Jerome Powell appears to be willing to keep pumping support into the economy and let it run hotter on a fast-paced growth and inflation.

Japan’s central bank planned to carry out monetary policy adjustments designed to increase its flexibility for financial institutions. Bank of Japan considered to be looking at measures that widen the fund rates move in slightly larger range of 0.25%. With this consideration, it not only can maintain low interest rates, but also give financial institution a chance to increase revenue.

The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged on the future monetary policy. As a response, the UK bond yields moved higher on expectations of rising inflation. Moreover, BOE reassured that a tightening monetary policy won’t happen until a clear evidence of an economy recovery.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Gold declined as the US Treasury yields reached to highest in more than a year. In response to the climbs in the yields, most metals fell. As Jerome Powell mentioned, inflation is likely to be transient, and will not mark progress toward the Fed’s long- term goals. With this, the Fed has no intention to push back against the surge in Treasury yields. In the meantime, holdings in ETF have gradually fallen in every session since February for the longest decline on record. With the combination of the selloff from ETFs and the surge in Treasury yields, gold is heading to a bearish trend.

Crude oil lost around 7% today, settling at $60 a barrle amid the concern over short- term demand and as a strong US dollar weakened commodities priced in the currency. The selloff was the biggest since September.

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

After riding with the FOMC news, contesting the resistance at 1746.91(Fibonacci 23.6% retracement,) gold turns to bearish trend as it fails to break through. At the same time, the bullish- to- bearish momentum is confirmed as the MACD indicator narrows down, and the RSI continues to stay in neutral, implying that there is still more room for the pair to the downside. The next target for gold is expected to sit around the support level at 1676.89(Fibonacci 0% retracement.) if gold successfully breaks the strong support level at 1676.89, then it will open up an accelerating downside pressure.

Resistance: 1746.91, 1790.23, 1825.24

Support: 1676.89

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD drops toward 1.1900 as US dollar index recovers with the US bond yield continues to surge, currently trading around 1.1925. On the daily chart, EURUSD continues to trade within the descending channel; at the same time, it is located below the 50- and 100- SMA, indicating a bearish mode. However, the RSI indicator stays in a neutral situation, suggesting that there is room for the pair to climb or drop. However, after turning into a positive mode from the descending trend, the pair has hovered around the resistance for a while, implying that the pair might not have enough boost to go up. If the pair can successfully climb above the resistance at 1.1945, then it will open a chance to contest the next resisance at 1.2349, where turns the pair from bearish to bullish in the near- term and long- term. To the downside, if the pair fails to test 1.1945, then it will potentially head toward 1.1695, which confirms a bearish trend.

Resistance: 1.2349

Support: 1.1945, 1.1695, 1.1492

BTCUSD (Daily Chart)

Bitcoin once again explodes to all time high this week as bitcoin is moving towards the mainstream where major companies, including Square, Paypal, Tesla, and some China giants, are confident in the future. From a technical aspect, bitcoin has overcome the downside pressure from the beginning of the week, and now has turned back to a bullish trend with the psychological support level at 58000. As of now, bitcoin is expected to keep up its bullish momentum as the RSI of 63 has not yet reached the overbought condition while the pair is trading within the ascending channel and above the 50 SMA. The next price target is expected to be the next resistance of 61742.41(Fibonacci 100% retracement.)); if bitcoin can successfully break the level, it will open up a chance to hit another record- high.

Resistance: 61742.41

Support: 58000, 49564.44, 42030.61

Economic Data

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US stocks market was mixed on Tuesday while 10-year yield edged slightly higher. Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. lifted the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index closed marginally lower, with energy and industrials stocks leading the decline.

President Joe Biden looks to impose higher taxation rate on corporation and wealthy Americans, with relieve eyed for middle-class households. Biden’s proposal will mostly affect families earning more than $400,000 a year and could layout path for his long-standing economic and infrastructure plans. However, the road to higher taxation will be bumpy since any tax changes will have to move through Congress, and Biden has almost no power to push through his plan via an executive order.

European Union look to resume vaccination campaign as the block’s drug regulator signaled AstraZeneca’s Covid shot was safe. Shortly after, Italy and France hinted that they would resume using AstraZeneca vaccine. Despite the setbacks, European Commission will unveil its strategy to gradually lift coronavirus lockdowns on Wednesday.

Bloomberg’s key takeaways from China’s economic data releases:

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Euro dollar dipped 0.17% albeit upbeat investors confidence data. Germany published the ZEW Economic Sentiment for March on Tuesday, the figure came on top of forecast of 74, printed 76.6. Speculators now awaits the Fed announcement to look for clue on how the central bank will deal with its current account deficit and whether they will push agenda to hike interest rates.

Aussie, Kiwi, and Cable plunged prior to EU session, but pared most of their loss later in the day. Safe-haven pairs such as USDJPY and USDCHF dropped 0.14% and 0.42% respectively. However, low-yielding currencies should remain subdued given the global rise in yields triggered by US led reflation trade.

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold is gradually losing its bouncing strengths as $1740 kept a solid lid on any upward moves. Price is close to kissing its descending trendline that started in January, but price has been rejected by $1740 hurdle three times. This in turn diminishes the likelihood of price actually touches the dynamic resistance line. Sellers are patiently waiting for bond yields to edger higher to kick off another around of bearish run, and price would breach below support band of $1691 and $1673 this time. Further on the south, bears ultimately eyes for $1600 handle. MACD on the daily chart is printing a bullish picture.

Resistance: 1765, 1839

Support: 1691, 1673, 1600

GBPJPY (Weekly Chart)

GBPJPY is extending its gains to the tenth consecutive week, approaching the highest price of 152.83 since April 2018. Strong fundamentals for the Sterling combined with receding demand for safe-haven currency have helped this pair to forge such incredible surge. Meanwhile, the continuous appreciation has driven RSI deeply into the overbought zone, currently printing 77. We expect price to contest 152.83 resistance level prior to profit takings, which would prompt a correction toward the purple trendline. However, the prospect of this pair remains to be bullish within a risk-on enviroment in 2021.

Resistance: 152.83

Support: 149.43, 145.9, 141.17

EURUSD (Daily & Monthly Chart)

Euro is under pressure amid recovering US dollar, and is on a third losing streak. Despite price managed to overcome horizontal resistance of 1.1954, but it failed to reclaim key 1.2 psychological level. The false breakout marked a retracement of the current bearish trend, which looks to resume toward 1.1778.

On the monthly chart, the euro-dollar is correcting toward 23.6% Fibonacci level of 1.167, which is in confluence with the daily picture. However, we expect a robust rebound at this stern support line. In the longer term, the bulls look to challenge previous high of 1.25.

Resistance: 1.1954, 1.2215

Support: 1.1778, 1.163

Economic Data

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US eqity markets turn positive with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are trading in the positive territories. Technology shares led US stocks higher as investors weighed the economic recovery and progress on vaccines against the risk of inflation. Both S&P 500 and the Dow Jones hit fresh records as investors continued keeping eyes on the bond yield, which remains the primary risk facing the stocks markets. In the next upcoming days, the market will have to continually grapple with the anxiety about economic overheating and the upcoming FOCM event.

The US might face the first major tax hike since 1993 in the next economy plan as the President Joe Biden is planning to announce for the purpose of helping pay for the long- term US recovery program. For Biden’s administration, the upcoming changes are an opportunity not just to fund key initiatives, but also address the inequities of Trump’s tax system. Thus, the next economy plan might act as a major turnover of the US tax system.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

DXY opens the week on the positive footing, remainning higher against most G-10 currencies peers. The dollar is expected to stay bid into this week’s Federal Reserve policy decision, which will refrain from any explicit action to rein in yields.The precious metal, gold heads for a second straight days gain on bets that the Fed will decide to keep rates unchanged this week during the meeting. The Fed meeting will be a major driver for the gold’s movement as if rates remain low, potentially lifting the inflation rate, then it will drive the gold market upward.

After last week’s fluctuation, crude oil prices consolidate around $65 in a narrow band on Monday amid a lack of significant fundamental drivers. With a strengthen US dollar index and the news from the possibility of Iranian oil coming back onto the market, oil prices are weak today.

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold extends its positive trend on Monday, currently trading around 1730 area. On the daily chart, the technical outlook seems to suggest that Gold might extend its recovery toward its resistance level at 1746.91 in the near- term. The RSI indicator continues to stay below overbought, mplying that there is still more room for the pair on the upside before it confronts a bearish pressure. In the meanwhile, the MACD indicator just turns to a bullish mode, suggesting that the pair has potential to grow upward. However, in the bigger picture, gold remains bearish as it continues to fall within the descending channel whilist trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average and the midline of Bollinger Band.

Resistance: 1746.91, 1790.23, 1825.24

Support: 1676.89

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

From a technical aspect, repeated failing to break the resistance at 1.3954 marks the formation of a bearish double- top pattern in the near- term. The double top formation may possibly brings the pair down to the next support level at 1.3779, and then pullback; thus, any decline is likely to find a place near the support confluence region. The MACD indicator also suggests that the bearish momentum is likely to continue. However in the bigger picture, GBPUSD remains bullish as it continues to stay in the ascending channel.

Resistance: 1.3954, 1.4008, 1.4062

Support: 1.3779

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD retreats as the US dollar index recovers its poise, currently trading around 1.1930. On the daily chart, EURUSD continues to trade within the descending channel; at the same time, it is located below the 50- and 100- SMA, indicating a bearish mode. However, the RSI indicator stays in a neutral situation, suggesting that there is room for the pair to climb or drop. That being said, the pair might be in a consolidated mode as of now. If the pair can successfully climb above the resistance at 1.1945, then it will open a chance to contest the next resisance at 1.2349, where turns the pair from bearish to bullish in the near- term and long- term. To the downside, if the pair fails to test 1.1945, then it will potentially head toward 1.1695, which confirms a bearish trend.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.2349

Support: 1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290

Economic Data

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Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US stocks market was mixed amid spiking treasury yields. Higher yield seemed to be weighing down on Tech shares, with the Nasdaq 100 index dropped 0.9% on Friday. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Index advanced higher towards 32,700 and the S&P 500 climbed 0.1%. Financials and industrials stocks edged higher as investors are shifting demand into value shares.

Italy Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced most part of Italy will return to lockdown on Monday amid hiking infections. The government has blamed more-contagious virus strains from the UK and Brazil, and pledges to triple vaccinations to more than half a million a day.

BoJ is considering releasing an analysis of the potential impact of lowering its negative interest rate to show its determination to use this option if needed. Details will be released on March 19 and is widely expected to tweak its stimulus framework while stopping short of major overhaul.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The US greenback stopped its losing streak amid rising yield backdrop, rallied 0.28% and 5.8% respectively. The 10-year treasury yield refeshed high of 1.632% on the last trading day. Investors are confident in the economical upside of Biden’s generous $1.9 trillion stimulus package, not to mention Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s support in rising yield. That being said, bond price will continue to suffer amid higher expectation of inflation in 2021.

Euro was on the defensive against the dollar, slipped 0.28% on Friday. Vaccine rollouts in the Euro Zone is still sluggish albeit regulators’ approval on Johnson & Johnson’s single shot vaccine. Vaccination campaign has been halted in some European countries due to concerns that doeses supplied by AstraZeneca resulted in blood clots.

Cable picked up some volatility as economic docket failed to impress speculators, dipped 0.45%. UK’s Manufacturing Production for January decreased by 2.3%, whereas economists expected the figure to be around -0.8%, and marked the first decline in eight-month.

Fire sales in safe-haven currencies resume, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc lost 0.5% and 0.58% against the greenback. Investors are allocating money into risky assets, and leaving bond behind as they grew optimistic about the outlook in 2021 and 2022. Gold resembled similar trend recently, but somehow managed to stood up against the dollar on Friday, closed up 0.06%.

Canadian dollar was the only one swimming against the current, USDCAD plunged 0.52%. Optimism has been circulating in the oil market due to OPEC+ effort to keep supply constrained, thus boosting crude price and lending support to the oil linked currency.

Technical Analysis:

EURGBP (Daily Chart)

EURGBP struggles to find a direction as price clings to 76.4% Fibonacci around 0.8565. Price has been trapped inside a descending wedge for the last four months, and will soon run into a dead end. If it is not able to pull off a strong rebound in the near term, then this pair will likely to resume its selling bias. However, since RSI is hovering over the edge of a oversold zone, we expect easing downward momentum. The bears will meet its first support around 1.845 followed by robust defense line of 0.828, last seen in last Febuary.

Resistance: 0.874, 0.8887

Support: 0.8565, 0.845, 0.828

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

USDCAD is extending its decline in fourth consecutive day, currently hovering above 1.246 support line. This support level was previously contested, followed by strong bounce. But the bulls look to give up its defense line as Loonie was only currency trading firmly against the US dollar on Friday thanks to upbeat Canadian unemployement rate and stablized oil price. Further on the south, price will meet support of 1.2268 dated back in Febuary 2018. MACD on the daily chart continues to eke out the current bearish trend.

Resistance: 1.275, 1.296

Support: 1.25, 1.227, 1.21

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold pared all of its loss on Friday, and is extending its recovery toward 50% Fibonacci resistance. On the upside, red descending trendline will put a lid on any attempts for a breakthrough. Price is approaching a corner where the red downward trendline, the purple long term support trenline, and horizontal support band intersect with each other. It would be intersting to see how price could maneuver inside this highlighted zone. If bidders are to give up the downside support zone between $1673 and $1690, then it would open doors to $1600 level and essentially mark the death of Gold. MACD on the daily chart seems to be in transition towards a bullish trend, but investors should be prudent to wait for a clear signal.s

Resistance: 1765, 1839

Support: 1690, 1673, 1600

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equity markets jumped to all- time high, fueled by a rally in technology shares as the US yield rates become more stable and the approval of a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. The 10- year Treasury bond yield that holds steadily eases fears of inflation and rates whilst the upcoming stimulus cheers up the majority of equities; the S&P 500 climbed as much as 1.3% and the Nasdaq jumped more than 2.5%.

The ECB has eventually taken action in response of rising bond yields. The ECB plans to ramp up bond buying to tackle surging rates, and to leave its PEPP unchanged at a total of 1.85 trillion euros, around $2.21 trillion USD. PEPP seems to be disappointed to respond the rising yields, therefore, the Governing Council decides to make purchases at a higher pace over the next three months.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, approaches record high as risk- on rally accelerates. Bitcoin is picking up the bullish momentum again as high as $67680 after dipping more than 20% in the past few weeks. “Bitcoin’s resilience is proving to be the stuff of legend,” said Antoni Trenchev. With increasing institutional interest, Bitcoin gradually shows that it is likely to be a store of value akin to gold that can act as a hedge against inflation and a weaker US dollar.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar index extended its losses to one- week low as US equity markets surged and the Treasury bond yield stablized after the 30- year Treasury auction on indications that demand from foreign accounts was soft. The dollar index was down -0.4% to the lowest since last week, trading almost below the 100 EMA.

The Loonie hit the highest in two weeks, caused by a weak US dollar while investors’ appetite for rsikier assets that boosted commodities, such as oil, copper and gold. In the meanwhile, investors awaits for the speech on household spending from Bank of Canada Deputy Governor.

AUDUSD advanced to a fresh weekly high today, and peaked around 0.7790 amid a weaker US dollar. The Australian dollar is also lifted by a better- than- expected March Consumer Inflation, which is up 4.1%, better than the 3.7%.

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold keeps up its positive trend for the third straight trading session, currently trading around 1725 area. On the daily chart, the technical outlook seems to suggest that Gold might extend its recovery toward its resistance level at 1746.91 in the near- term. The RSI indicator stays below 70, implying that there is still more room for the pair on the upside before it confronts a bearish pressure. In the meanwhile, the MACD indicator is on the edge of bearish- to- bullish cross, suggesting that the pair has potential to grow upward. However, in the bigger picture, gold remains bearish as it continues to fall within the descending channel whilist trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average and the midline of Bollinger Band.

Resistance: 1746.91, 1790.23, 1825.24

Support: 1676.89

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD extends gain for the second days after the ECB has left the policy rates unchaged and pledged to faster bond- buying. In the near- term, the pair still has a long way to crawl out of the descending trend and trade above the 50 and 100- SMAs, indicating a bearish mode. However, the RSI indicator stays below the overbought condition, below 70, suggesting that there is room for the pair to climb toward the next resistance at 1.2005. If the pair can successfully climb above the resistance, then it will open a chance to contest the next resisance at 1.2349, where turns the pair from bearish to bullish in the near- term and long- term. To the downside, if the pair fails to test 1.2005, then it will potentially head toward 1.1793, which confirms a bearish trend.

Resistance: 1.2005, 1.2349

Support: 1.1793, 1.1621, 1.1449, 1.1237

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

GBPUSD continues to advance beyond 1.3950 as the US dollar falls whilist a falling yield rates and the approval of the stimulus package. From a technical perspective, GBPUSD has surpassed the 100- SMA on the four- hour chart, which gives the pair more confirmation to a positive movement. In the meantime, the technical indicators are in support of the pair’s bulls as the RSI indicator has not yet reached the overbought condition, below 70, and the MACD well converge to the positive territory. All in all, bulls are in the lead, and the pair is heading toward the next resistance level at 1.4006.

Resistance: 1.4006, 1.4061, 1.4128

Support: 1.3952, 1.3885, 1.3776

Economic Data

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