Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

In earlier NY session, U.S. stocks dropped from record highs as investors weighed the potential fallout from forced block sales on the rest of Wall Street. Oil rose and Treasury yields climbed higher. The financials sector weighed on the benchmark S&P 500 for much of the day following revelations that banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley liquidated holding in Bill Hwang’s family office Archegos Capital Management on Friday after he failed to meet margin calls. Boeing Co. lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average to another all-time high after the aircraft maker announced a large order. The Nasdaq Composite finished in the red.

Stocks bounced off session lows Monday with tech and small caps lagging the Dow and S&P 500 as President Joe Biden announced 90% of U.S. adults will be eligible to get a Covid-19 vaccine in three weeks, marking April 19 as a new milestone in the vaccination push. New York state, the epicenter of the original virus outbreak, will expand vaccine eligibility to those 30 and older starting on April6, according to the governor’s office.

On the other hands, the S&P 500 is edging higher, reversing its earlier losses, after traders said a series of buy programs moved through. Tech is continuing to broadly weigh on the market, with the Nasdaq 100 still in the red whilst market close nearby. Ther exception is big tech, as the NYFANG+ index is putting in a strong performance with Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google all climbing.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

West Texas intermediate crude swung between gains and losses before turning higher. Trades focused on the demand impact of renewed coronavirus lockdowns before the OPEC+ policy discussions on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Ever Given was freed to allow the reopening of the Suez Canal. Elsewhere, Bitcoin headed for the biggest one-day gain in two weeks.

On FX side, the dollar pared gains amid improving risk sentiment as shipping traffic started moving in the Suez Canal and investors looked toward U.S. President Joe Biden unveiling an infrastructure and jobs plan this week.

Greenback is still higher on the day as Treasury yields climbed and gold slumped the most in about two weeks. Of course, greenback optimistic movement amid U.S.’s rapid vaccine roll-out program and in expectations around stimulus. According to trader, greenback gains emerge even as one rebalancing model has shifted to a USD sell signal across currencies.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

Euro dollar setted another boring down move after dollar consecutively went high. Euro dollar still under 1.18 then holding at 1.1765 level for recently low bound support and seemingly without remarkable price gathering support for further downside. On the other hands, both 15 and 60-long SMAs remaining down trend whilst RSI indictor is paltry above 30 figures, which suggest a selling mode, implying further bearish momentum ahead at list for short-run, we believe.

On the slid way, we foresee currently price level, 1.1765, would be a pivotal support for bullish favored. In the light of lacking supportive level in downside, if price tamp down currently level, we see price will get out of hands to further lower position.

Resistance: 1.1805, 1.1838, 1.1872

Support: 1.1765

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

After breakthrough a cosolidation range in 108.37 to 109.24, yen seems accelerate the edging momentum then currently trading at 109.82, seesion peak nearing the highest level in a year. Other persuasive phenomenon for uptrend, 15-long SMAs have golden cross the 60-long SMAs that given a powerful upward momemtum guidance. Meanwhile, RSI indicator set at 68.82 figure, suggesting a optimistic downwind trend ahead.

On surge way, we could not find out there has other barricades ahead once it penetrate upon price cluster. However, yen have been through a dark winter, a 5.9% year-to-date declined. Since, we believe the posiblity for edge up still quite high by combing stance aforementioned, but amplitude could be limited.

Resistance: 109.82

Support: 109.47, 109.24, 108.37

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

As an another yield wildly move in early NY session, gold extensively tamp down the market position to 1712.16 as of writing. At the same time, a long run down trend is pressing the marketplace as the yellow line in the chart. For technical aspect, RSI weighed a strong sell momentum as is girding at 30 figure. On the other hands, both 15 and 60-long SMAs indicators are heading south side whilst short one is above the long one.

Combing the stance above, we expect that gold market will confront another downward impetus. For support below, phycological level on 1700 will be a first pivot support, if loss defend, the sequently support will 1678.85. On contrast way, despite there is a powerful down trend pressure upon, the first resistance will be 1722.75, 1738.32 is following behind.

Resistance: 1722.75, 1738.3, 1754.53

Support: 1700, 1678.85

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Please note change of the following some products due to The Good Friday, Easter Monday and Freedom Day.

If you have any questions, our team will be happy to answer your questions. Please mail to [email protected] or contact the service online.

Dear Client,

Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ” .

Please note the specific adjustments as follows:

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equities climbed on optimism over the vaccine rollout and after the Fed freed banks from restrictions on dividends. The US outlook got boosted after Joe Biden doubled the goal for vaccinations in his first hundred days in office to 200 million. Today, the tone of the market has shifted from angst to optimism.

The blockage of Suez Canal is further stressing an already strained supply chain. It is holding up an estimated $400 million per hour in trade, calculated based on the approx. value of goods that are moved through the canal every day. Despite of trying to remove the megaship, Ever Given, it remains stuck in the Suez Canal, and is likely to stuck until next week. This incident has opened up the challenge for global supply chain, and now is only the start of the rearranging of global trade.

US and European retail brands, such as Nike and H&M, face boycotts in China as Xinjiang dilemma deepens, over Xinjiang cotton statement. The boycott is because of the stand the retailers have taken against the alleged use of forced labor to produce cotton in Xinjiang, part of China. Moreover, Chinese government is seeking to impose real costs for governments and businesses that criticize and impose sanctions on China’s human right issue.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Gold advanced today, narrowing a weekly loss as the US dollar slipped and bond yields is stable. However, gold is still heading for its first weekly loss, underscoring its fitful comeback from a nine- month low. As more and more countries are recovering from the pandemic, and the US dollar is resilient, many factors potentially reduce the appeal of non- interest- bearing gold.

The British Pound climbed against the US dollar toward 1.38 after the UK reported an increase of 2.1% in retail sales in February. With the retail sales report of over 2%, it shows the resilience of the UK economy, boosting the GBP.

The Aussie plunged to its lowest since early February at 0.7563 although it bounced back a little today due to the risk sentiment improvement.

USDJPY prolonged its upward momentum, currently at 109.67 today. The risk- on mood weighed on the safe heaven Japanese Yen and continued to remain supportive of the move up.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD hovers under 1.18 after the concern of EU bans on vaccine exports and the possibility of the third wave. On the daily chart, the pair has broken the descending channel, opening up a more confirmed downside pressure and heading toward the next support at 1.16949. To the downside, EURUSD has formed a double top, a bearish reversal pattern. Moreover, the pair is trading below the 50 and 100 SMAs while the RSI is slight above 30, which is outside of the oversold conditions, implying a further falls in the next few trading sessions.

Resistance: 1.19450, 1.23492

Support: 1.16949, 1.14928, 1.12906

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

After clinging in between 107.87 and 109.45 for more than a week, Dollar Yen finally breaks through the resistance at 109.45. USDJPY prolongs its recent upward trajectory and reaches multi- month highs today. The pair continues to trade within the ascending channel and outplayingly above the 50 SMA, confirming a fresh bullish momentum toward the next resistance at 111.40. However, the bullish momentum might be hold a little as the RSI on the daily chart is currently overbought, 76; USDJPY buyers might sense some caution before positioning for any further positive move.

Resistance: 111.40, 114.55

Support: 109.45, 107.87, 106.29

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

After once again testing the resistance at 1746.91, gold witnesses some selling today. At the moment, gold continues to hover near the resistance boundary of its weekly range in between 1720 and 1746. Gold remains locked in a tight range on the daily chart, looking for a fresh direction. To the downside, gold still trades below the 50 SMA; at the same time, the RSI of 43 remains below the midline, suggesting that the bearish bias still remains intact. On the upside, as gold continues to hover around the resistance, the upside bias is relatively strong, waiting for the time to break through; in the meanwhile, the MACD still lends support to the bulls.

Resistance: 1746.91, 1790.23, 1825.24

Support: 1676.89

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equities edged higher amid improving investors confidence in economic outlook in 2021. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.67% with financials and industrials stocks led the gain. US 10-year yields held steady after today’s seven-year notes auction.

Evergreen’s ‘Ever Given’ massive container ship blocked the Suez Canal for a third day, forcing other vessels to reroute around Africa. The incident will send ripples in global trade, most likely boosting shipment costs and delay countless arrivals. Oil price also buoyed around the situation, plunged 4.07%.

Federal Reserve said dividend restraints can be removed for US banks that pass the upcoming stress tests with sufficient capital. The restriction started last June when banks were prohibited to raise dividends, the act ensures lenders have enough capacity to sustain economic pain triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

During Thursday’s press conference, President Biden expressed he will run again in 2024 with Kamal Harris. The ambitious gentleman also boldly stated “China wouldn’t overtake the US in clout under his watch”, and emphasized technology and medicals are critical in battling with China. Finally, he doubled his vaccination goal to 200 million shots in his first 100 days in office.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Euro dollar dipped 0.32% amid sluggish vaccination campaign. The European Council kicked off a two-day summit today, with vaccination program being top priority on the list. However, market seemed to be quite some pessimistic on any meaningful outcome from these meetings. Rubbing salt into the wound, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos noted “Eurozone economy is likely to shrink in the first half of 2021.”

Sterling was surprisingly well performed among the G-7 space, appreciated 0.35% against the dollar. The rally snapped its fifth losing streak. Given the lack of impetus on Thursday, the upside move could be viewed as a correction rather than a reversal.

Safe-haven duos like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc were on the back-foot once again, dropped 0.38% and 0.45% against the greenback. These two currencies remained unmotivated as upward bond yield momentum is back in action.

Gold looks to surrender all of its gains from yesterday’s session, currently trading around $1727. The precious metal is confined in a $20 trading range, and the fight between bulls and bears is intensifying, one should expect a breakout soon. The constantly higher bond yields and strong US dollar keep Gold’s demand subdued, whereas concerns on infection resurgence in the Euro Zone eke out the yellow metal.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

Euro dollar is extending its decline to 1.1778, a soft support level last seen in November. The overstreching downtrend is the last leg of a double-top pattern. Given solid close in the last two days, we suspect the selloff may be more robust than we’ve expected, thus it is possible that this pair will look to contest 1.163 during next week. As we noted in previous analysis, this pair will exit the current consolidation pahse, and the bears will reclaim the driver seat. It is unsurprising to see a retaining selling bias given the breakout from a ascending trend. We are also seeing a bear revival from the MACD.

Resistance: 1.19, 1.195, 1.2215

Support: 1.1778, 1.163

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

Dollar Yen struggled to find firm direction as the pair zig-zaged between 109.1 and 108.6. Gains from yesterday and today completely wipe out seller’s effort to bring down the overheated price, daily RSI figure remains outside of its comfort zone. The dollar greenback continues to gain traction amid recovering bond yield. The 10-year treasury yield looks to snap a three-consecutive lose, overall expectation for inflation in US resumes upward. This pair will march toward 109.67, a major resistance not seen since last June. We expect at least some profit takings around this level.

Resistance: 109.67

Support: 108, 106.7, 104.9

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold is still clinging to the descending trendline, along with mid-line of Bollinger Band. Bidders managed to launch an attack on $1745 during Thursday’s session, but the gain was quickly erased. The fact that we are seeing bounce-offs from the frequently visited $1727 soft support, any decisive upward drift could encourage bulls to pile in. Price may still trap inside a tight trading range as bulls and bears resume the tug-of-war, investors should be prudent to wait for a clear breakout from either side.

Resistance: 1765, 1839, 1872

Support: 1727, 1691, 1680

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equity markets were negative as the bond yields became steady and investors rotated away from the stocks. In the meantime, European markets eked out a gain whilst most Asia shares fell the most in almost three weeks. Among those, Hong Kong equities declined to a 10 correction as it’s decision to temporarily suspend BioNTech vaccines.

Suez Canal snarled by giant ship has choked the key trade route. As one of the world’s busiest trade routes, it is very vital for the movement of crude oil and consumer goods. According to officials, no progress has been made so far. And the canal may be blocked for days. As around 12% of global trade such as oil shipments need to pass through the canal, this incident may potentially raise oil prices and shipping costs. As a result, oil prices jumped more than 5% today.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to pull the plan for five- day lockdown over Easter. The withdrawal of the lockdown plan essentially meant that Germany remains under restrictions that were loosened before a third wave of infections.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Crude Oil gained more than 5% as the blockage of the Suez Canal by a giant container ship is likely to send ripple of disruption through the global energy supply chain. Both US and European refiners that rely on the waterway may need to look for a temporary replacement.

Gold rose with ebbing yields and a disappointing US economic data. The demand for five years notes increased, and it has dropped around 10 basis points this week. With a good bond auction essentially supported gold. As a result, gold climbed about 0.4% today.

The British Pound struggled to close 1.37 against the US dollar as the US dollar gained traction and UK CPI missed estimates about 0.4%; at the same time, the Pound got weakened as the vaccination rollouts could slow down in the UK.

USDCAD declined further south below 1.2576 as oil prices rose above 60 on the back of an improvement in risk sentiment.

Technical Analysis:

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

USDJPY clings to modest daily gains around 108.76, keeping up its momentum within the ascending channel. The pair is confined to a tight range, consolidating in the near -term on the daily chart as it tries to adjust from the recent surge of the US Treasury yields. Since the RSI is still overbought, it is expected to see USDJPY to take a temporary break within the range from 109.45- 107.87. On the upside, the bulls need to contest and penetrate through the resistance of 109.45 to confirm the strength of the recent upside move. To the downside, the bears need to test all the way down to the support of 106.29(Fib. Retracement 33.2% ) in order to break the uptrend. Today, the move of the pair will eye on the US GDP reports and initial jobless claims.

Resistance: 109.45, 111.40

Support: 107.87, 106.29, 104.34

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

GBPUSD pressures on downbeat mood amid strong US dollar and weak UK CPI report. The pair finally takes a break, trading at 1.37184, but still is in the negative territory after suffering from consecutive days of bearish momentum. On the four hour chart, the RSI is in the oversold consition, below 30, suggesting that it is expected to see a retreat; however, as the MACD indicator is still showing a bearish sign, the pair might continue to trade in the negative mode after the adjustment. To the downside, the bears will confirm if the pair breaks through the next resistance level of 1.3674. On the upside, the bulls need to test all the way up to 1.3868 in order to confirm a bearish- to- bullish momentum.

Resistance: 1.3674

Support: 1.3794, 1.3868, 1.3928

Gold (Daily Chart)

Gold continues to stay in a consolidation phase along with the resistance of 1746.91. The move of gold is likely to be determined whether the resistance level can be broken through. At this point, gold has hovered around the area for more than 5 trading sessions, thus expecting to see a breakthrough as bullish momentums are very strong at this point. At the same time, the MACD indicator also lends support to the bulls while the RSI is still neutral, giving gold rooms to move forward.

Resistance: 1746.91, 1790.23, 1825.24

Support: 1676.89

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equity market suffered despite easing bond yields. The three big indexes were on the retreat. The S&P 500 index slumped 0.64%, with industrials and materials stocks led the decline.

Here is Bloomberg’s key takeaways from Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell House CARES act testimony:

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Dollar was gaining traction on Tuesday, the dollar index ramped up 0.64%. The rally may be motivated by external forces, rather than US greenback itself. New Zealand government unexpectedly announced its move to fight rising house prices with a set of measures. The act will heavily hamper down rentier class as newly rolled out tax code makes housing speculation less profitable. To be specific, capital gains on properties investment will be taxed for any property held less than 10 years, compared to previous 5 years. The bigger implication is perhaps pandemic resilient or recovered countries like New Zealand are already getting their hands on reversing the consequence of a too loosen monetary policy. This synchronized expectation in turn dragged down currency crosses like the Aussie and Cable, where similar steps are followed.

Euro dollar plummeted 0.2% as investors are still digesting Turkey headline. Moreover, lockdown extension from Germany and Netherlands further weighed down on the shared currency. There is little sign of backdown from infection figures in Germany, Chancellor Angel Merkel noted “case numbers are rising exponentially thanks to the British variant of the virus, new British variant of coronavirus means we are effectively in a new pandemic. [lockdowns] will be extended until Easter.”

Renewed lockdown in Europe undermined oil price on Tuesday, the WTI crude and Brent crude futures plunged 6.17% and 6.59% respectively. Investors are worried that sluggish EU vaccination campaign will fall further behind amid resurgence of infections within the Euro Zone, thus decelerate the recovery in oil demand.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

Euro dollar looks to close the day with a solid breaish engulfing. Price was very close to climbing back above 1.1954 during yesterday’s session, but today’s recovering dollar strength killed bulls’ hope. More importantly, the double-top pattern is manefesting ifself as price broke through the neckline of 1.19. As we noted in previous analysis, this pair will exit the current consolidation pahse, and the bears will reclaim the driver seat. It is unsurprising to see a retaining selling bias given the breakout from a ascending trend. On the downside, the nearest contestant support lies around 1.1778, following by long standing 1.163. We are also seeing a bear revival from the MACD.

Resistance: 1.19, 1.195, 1.2215

Support: 1.1778, 1.163

NZDUSD (Daily Chart)

The long waited breakout on the Kiwi finally happened, after stuck inside a tight range between 0.7117 and 0.725. Price relentlessly plunged 2.14% on the news that New Zealand government will fight rising house price with a new set of policy. It is falling onto 50% Fibonacci of 0.7, which is also a significant pyschological support. We witnessed a strong bounce last time when this handle was contested, thus it is reasonable to induce a similar action this time around. However, if price fails to pull away from 0.7, then we suspect the starved bear will take price down to 0.69.

Resistance: 0.7117, 0.725, 0.7465

Support: 0.7, 0.69, 0.6768

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold is still clinging to the descending trendline, along with mid-line of Bollinger Band. Price is backed to a corner, and await for signals from the Treasury market. That being said, we remain a bullish stance on the precious metal since stimulus checks are in the rareview mirror, focus has returned to Fed’s dovish view and upcoming Treasury auction, which should eke out Gold. In fact, we are seeing bounce-offs from the frequently visited $1727 soft support, any decisive upward drift could encourage bulls to pile in. At this point, investors should be prudent to wait for a clear breakout from either side.

Resistance: 1765, 1839, 1872

Support: 1727, 1691, 1680

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Due to the UK/EU Daylight Saving, the adjusted trading hours (of certain products), which will be excuted on 28th March, are shown as below.

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Please mail to [email protected] or contact the service online.

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Nasdaq 100 climbed as high as 2% as the US Treasury yields slid, providing a tailwind for equity markets. Markets also focused on the Federal Reserve’s SLR decision. The Fed is letting expire at the end of March a temporary change to its SLR requirement for banks. The worst scenario is that some of banks have to issue preferred to make room for the increase in deposit, potentially resulting in major selloffs.

Turkish Lira plunged as much as 15% against the US dollar after the Turkish President Erdogan abruptly fired the head of the central bank, putting the Lira for its worst single day decline in nearly three years. Ncai Agbal, who was appointed in November, was the country’s third central bank governor got removed in less than two years. And the reason for the removal was an advocate of lower rates. Agbal’s removal results in a 200 basis- point interest rate hike by the central bank. With the Lira’s freefall, it adds to Turkey’s inflation problem and also risks worsening currency mismatches. Moreover, the rise in external borrowing costs are going to make it harder for Turkish borrower to roll over their external debts.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The Aussie climbed to its highest in nearly two weeks following a drop in the jobless rate. The Aussie rose as much as 0.4% today as it was bought by leveraged funds buying for the second time in a day in the wake of a better- than- expected jobless report. Jobless data dropped to 5.8% from an expected 6.3% whilst full- time employment added 89.1k jobs.

The yellow metal, gold turned negative amid concern that the US Treasury yields might rise further even though the yields dropped nearly 1.7% today. Investors took close attention to the heavy slate of auctions with bonds getting pummeled recently amid an optimistic outlook for growth and inflation. As a result, potential gains in gold might not be enough to spur investors to close out bets.

EURUSD reversed its direction and turned in positive, up around 0.28% on the day at 1.1935. Weaker US Treasury yields today continue to drive the US dollar’s performance. On the other hand, the ECB has pointed out that it is ready to adjust all of its instruments to ensure that inflation moves toward a sustained manner.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD has risen above 1.19 level as the US Treasury yields have dropped today, but still trapped in the descending channel on the daily chart. The pair has limited the bullish potential in the near- term as it needs to climb beyond around 1.2124 to give bulls a chance to happen. By rising up above 1.2124, where the yearly ascending trend and short- term descending trend cross, the pair would trade above the 50 and 100 SMAs, giving it a chance to reverse from bearish to bullish. In the near- term, EURUSD is under downside pressure as the RSI indicator has not reached the oversold condition, giving rooms to further south.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.2349

Support: 1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

Cable turns positive as the US Treasury yields trade lower today, resulting in a weaker US dollar. Cable has been setting higher lows since it hit a low of 1.3779 in the beginning of March. On the four- hour chart, the pair has rebounded back to the ascending trend, heading to the next resistance level at 1.3887(Fib. Retracement 23.6%.) Bulls are trying to comeback as the MACD lines are getting narrowed even though cable is currently trading under the 50 SMA; meanwhile, the RSI is still neutral, giving Cable rooms to move further.

Resistance: 1.3887, 1.3954, 1.4008

Support: 1.3779

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold continues to move up and down between the key resistance hurdle at 1746.91. In a bigger picture, gold is still trapped in the descending channel while trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average. However, in the near- term, the direction of gold is likely to be determined whether the resistance level can be broken. Gold has hovered around the area for a while,thus expecting to see a breakthrough as bullish momentums are very strong at this point. At the same time, the MACD indicator also lends support to the bulls while the RSI is still neutral, giving gold a chance to move forward.

Resistance: 1746.91, 1790.23, 1825.24

Support: 1676.89

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ” .

Please note the specific adjustments as follows:

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].