Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US stocks market is closed for Memorial Day holiday, but futures was still open to trade. Futures on the three big equity indices declined as traders await fresh catalysts. This Friday’s Non-farm Payroll report will be crucial as it could materially changes Fed’s views on inflation and job market. “Policy makers have committed to accepting a higher level of inflation, higher volatility in inflation and as that happens you will see inflation moving structurally higher,” said Mixo Das, JPMorgan Asia equity strategist.

Germany’s inflation rate reached the peaking point since October 2018. The termination of lockdowns played a major part in reviving German economy. We are also seeing consumer prices picked up in Spain and Italy, a report for the euro area on Tuesday is expected to show inflation rising to 1.9%.

The world’s biggest meat supplier was the target of a cybersecurity attack Sunday. These ransom-ware attacks are getting wild, and are mostly claimed by a hacker group named DarkSide. The most noticeable attack forced Colonial Pipeline Co. to stop the flow of fuel for several days earlier this month, causing severe gasoline shortages in many cities.

Main Pairs Movement:

Dollar is on the back foot amid thin liquidity in the market, with the dollar index dipping 0.23%, currently trading 89.85. Euro was the best performer among the G-7 space, rose 0.29% on Monday. Tuesday will be a busy day as the economic docket is packed with releases from several major economies. Traders will be closely watching any policy shifts from Reserve Bank of Australia.

Cable also edged 0.15% higher despite possible postpone of reopening. UK may halt the next and last phase of Britain’s reopening due on June 21. Health experts have been calling on the government to react to the strain first identified in India by postponing this loosening. In the meantime, authorities have settled for accelerating the vaccination campaign.

Gold continues to head higher, climbed 0.16% on Monday. Recent rally in Gold may be contributed by a short squeeze in Europe, and exploding demand from China. According to GoldMoney.com, European bullion bank trading desks were under instructions to close their Comex positions and not roll them, because of the new Basel 3 regulations imposed upon them from end-June. The elimination of players in the Swaps category by Basel 3 regulations is a growing threat to Comex liquidity, leaving the shorts effectively trapped. On the other hand, Reuters reported over the weekend that gold exports from Switzerland to China and India have picked up, with 40.2 tonnes sent to China in April — more than the previous 14 months combined. Bernard Sin, regional director, Greater China at MKS, said “banks will continue to steadily import gold in May, as PBOC wants to manage the pace of RMB appreciation.” Pent-up demand for gold luxuries is also making a come back after depressed household spending back in 2020.

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable climbed 0.11% as price clings to 1.42. Due to UK and US’s holiday on Monday, trading signals could be misleading given the thin volume in the market. Nonetheless, the bulls are eager to break above this hurdle, which has been capping price from advancing for two weeks. Traders were frustrated by the heavy sideline trading within an impossible tight range between 1.411 and 1.425, if a breakout is about to happen, we expect some big moves coming. Further on the north, the nearest resistance sits at 1.437, next to 1.464.

Resistance: 1.42, 1.437, 1.464

Support: 1.4, 1.382, 1.369

USDCHF (Daily Chart)

USDCHF is aiming to extend its correction further in the north. The first attempt to break above SMA 20 resulted in failure on last Friday. It is currently revisiting 23.6% Fibonacci at 0.8988, if it could find solid support around this level, then we could see a potential breakthrough from SMA20. Worth noting that this pair has constructed an inverted head-and-shoulder pattern, which echoes with our hypothesis. Conversely, if bidders fail to defend the support line, then bears could threat to take price further south, likely hitting 0.884.

Resistance: 0.9081, 0.9156, 0.9231

Support: 0.8988, 0.884

NZDJPY (Weekly Chart)

NZDJPY is well placed on an upward trend, gained 0.3% to 79.69 on Monday. This pair has reversed a longer-term bearish trend last November and marked an eye-popping 33% recovery since last year’s low at 59.76. The bulls spent few months struggling to overcome 76.4% Fibonacci level at 78.15, and finally nailed it last week. The overall sentiment remains bullish for NZDJPY given a hawkish RBNZ and concerning virus spread in Japan. In the north, the nearest resistance sits around 81.08, next to 82.3. RSI is very sticky to the overbought zone, but we still expect strong fundamental to overcome technical.

Resistance: 81.08, 82.3

Support: 78.15, 74.59, 71.71

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ” .

Please note the specific adjustments as follows:

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equity market edged higher amid President Biden’s generous fiscal spending budget announcement of $6 trillion in 2022. The tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index up 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average index marched 0.3% on the last trading day in May, trading session will be closed next Monday as US is on Memorial Day. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.12%, with Real Estate and Utility share led the gain.

In more than 1700 spending proposal, the budget illustrates Biden’s ambitious vision to restore the nation’s infrastructure, expand the social safety net and combat income inequality with an overwhelming $6 trillions. This spending will come at a cost of significant tax increase on corporations and top earners. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized Biden’s budget is built on outdated economic forecasts and risks overheating US economy.

Bitcoin wiped out most of this week’s gain as BoJ’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned about the token’s volatility and speculative trading. The leading cryptocurrency lost 8% to trade around $35,400. He commented that Bitcoin is ‘barely used as a means of settlement.’ Crypto space has been under pressure from regulators’ criticism around the world, especially in China, where Bitcoins have been mined the most.

Main Pairs Movement:

The US dollar index jumped as much as 0.32% amid President Joe Biden’s 2022 budget release, but momentum quickly ran out of gas, all gains were pared in the end. Inflation in the US advanced forward, with annual Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, jumped to 3.1% from 1.9% and surpassed the market consensus of 2.9%.

Aussie remains subdued given China’s attempt to repress commodity prices, losing 0.5%. The iron ore prices tracked by Bloomberg has indicated a 23% retracement from its high. The commodity index numbers have been moderated but remain close to recent high.

The Cable retreated 0.13% and is still unable to 1.421 hurdle yet. There are concerns that UK won’t be able to fully re-open its economy later in June. Investors need to pay close attention to potential Indian variant that could derail the full reversal from lockdown schedule for June 21st.

Technical Analysis:

GBPJPY (Weekly Chart)

Can anything stop the GBPJPY rally at all? The pair is on another rampage after taking a breather around 149.4 support, climbed 4.14% in the past five weeks. It is currently trading at 2018’s high of 155.67, though it will not be taking down this roadblock this week, but nothing is guarantee for next week. Given recent strong fundamental from the UK and quite the contrary in Japan, there is really little for GBPJPY to holdback, not even the overheating signal from RSI at 75. Looking upward, it could run into 160.18 and 163.9 resistance lines dated back to 2016.

Resistance: 160.18, 163.9

Support: 149.43, 152.83, 145.9

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

Euro dollar attempted to launch another attack to the 1.2175 support, but was quickly fended off. The downsides were heavily guarded by bidders, resulted in a long tail wick on the daily chart. Seeing a huge rejection to the downside, trader may just decide to abandon their shorts and ride with the upward wave. This pair has been residing within the upper Bollinger band since early April and will continue to do so unless we a break lower from the mid-line, which marks SMA20. On the upside, bulls look to contest 1.235.

Resistance: 1.235

Support: 1.2175, 1.195, 1.171

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Price of Gold just refuses to backdown, currently clinging to the $1900 handle. The resilience in the precious metal is attributed to institutional inflows like hedge funds and ETFs, we are seeing a bottom-out in Gold ETF holdings. If the sideway trading carries on for another week or so, there is a chance that market is brewing for some radical moves given the recent concerns in the money market, the initial reaction could be a spike, followed by opposite plunges. On the upside, there are quite some open spaces to capitalize on, the nearest resistance lays around $1955, next to a big round $2000. Overheating condition in the RSI continues.

Resistance: 1955, 2000

Support: 1847, 1815, 1782

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equity market was in a good mood overall as data showed US jobless claims dropped to fresh pandemic low. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Index advanced 0.39% and 0.79% respectively, and the Nasdaq 100 index declined 0.06%. Industrials and Financials share led the gains in the S&P 500, while Utilities stocks lagged. Equities was lifted by a report suggesting President Joe Biden will unveil a budget that would boost Federal spending to $6 trillion in 2022.

We are seeing some bizarre actions in the Reverse Repo market recently. Demand for the key Federal Reserve facility used to control short-term rates surged to the highest on record. According to Bloomberg, fifty participants on Thursday parked some $485.3 billion in the overnight reverse repurchase facility. The total amount already surpassed previous record high of $474.6 billion from December 31st, 2015. The return of the Fed facility is close to 0%, but demand has been increasing as a flood of cash overwhelms funding market and have left investors wondering what is happening to the system.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said high inflation will be here to stay until the end of the year. She noted the spiking inflation was caused by price changes driven by consumer-spending shifts related to the pandemic and supply-chain bottlenecks. While the Republicans blame Biden’s plan could accelerate prices, Yellen rejected the idea of long-term spending on infrastructure would spur inflation.

Main Pairs Movement:

Cable jumped 0.62% on Thursday as policy maker from the BoE signals possible early rate hike. Gertjan Vliedhe, a member of BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, is optimistic on UK’s economic recovery, saying “it would probably take until the first quarter of next year to have a clear view of the post-furlough unemployment and wage dynamics, so a risk in Bank Rate could be appropriate soon after, along a slightly steeper path than in my central case.” Although it is not an official statement from the central bank, nonetheless it is the third central banks pathing toward monetary normalization. With more central banks joining the taper party, it will be interesting to see where the Federal Reverse stands, the wait-and-see game is getting boring for investors.

USDJPY surged 0.63% as the Japanese government plans to extend lockdown to June 20th. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said he will decide on whether to extend a virus emergency in Tokyo and other major cities after consulting with experts on Friday. The emergency measure in placed is set to expire on May 31, but the infections cases resist to backdown given there is little progress in Japan’s vaccine distribution. Time is running out for the Japanese government to keep virus cases under control, and they will be hosting the Summer Olympics in less than two months.

We are also seeing rising infections number in Australia. Australian government announce a seven-day lockdown in Victoria, the second-largest state. There is little trading reaction to the negative headline, Aussie is unfazed for the day.

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cheers for the Cable bears did not last long as price bounced on unexpected hawkish sentiment from one of BoE policy makers, climbed 0.42% to 1.4177. Though we are quite bullish on the Sterling, we thought the correction could be deeper into 1.4 handle, but today’s disruptive move further solidifies the upward trend for Cable. There is a chance for a prominent break higher in coming days, with the bulls look to take out 1.42 hurdle. Further on the north, the nearest resistance sits at 1.437, next to 1.464.

Resistance: 1.42, 1.437, 1.464

Support: 1.4, 1.366

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

USDJPY was soaring back to 110 amid extension of another emergency lockdown in Japan. We mentioned the rising infections cases in Japan could be weighing down on the Japanese Yen in previous analysis. This is exactly what the market needs in order to move out of that tight trading range. By overcoming 109.7 resistance, the bulls are moving onto yearly high of 111. The renewed lockdown could severely undermine Japanese Yen given its threat to delay the Olympics game, and all the economical merits. MACD on the daily chart indicates a bullish trend.

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

USDCAD struggled to find demand as WTI crude oil futures look to close around 67, the highest price in three years. Sellers are showing no mercy for this pair, price plunged upon touching SMA20 at 1.214 and completely wiped-out yesterday’s gains. Support at 1.2024 will be under pressure once again, and it might just surrender itself amid recent strong selling bias. Further on the downside, space will be wide open between 1.2024 and 1.1925, followed support at 1.1812.

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Another quiet day in US equities market, with the big three indices edged marginally higher amid thin liquidity on Wednesday. Within the S&P 500 index, we saw better performance in Consumer Discretionary sector, while Health Care shares trailed behind.

A report from Fitch Ratings suggests the US labor market will take about a year and a half to recover from pandemic’s impact. Unemployment rate will not return to their ‘natural’ rate of 4.3% until the last quarter of 2020.

Iran bans bitcoin mining as the nation face power shortages. Major cities are having difficulty supplying electricity, and government officials are putting the blame on illegal cryptocurrency mining. Statistics showed that around 4.5% of bitcoin mining between January and April took place in Iran, according to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic. The negative headline did little impact to Bitcoin’s price, which rallied roughly 1% to $38,674.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its cash rate unchanged at 0.25%, and here are Bloomberg’s key takeaways from RBNZ’s meeting:

Main Pairs Movement:

The US dollar is rebounding across the board today with dollar index up 0.45%, regaining its 90 handle. Euro dollar plunged 0.5%, and essentially gave back all of its gains in the last two days, closed the day just south of 1.22. The 10-year US treasury yield was up 1%, trading at 1.577%.

Cable is also facing some headwinds, slipped 0.2% near closing time. With strong fundamentals such as leading progress in vaccine distribution and optimistic business mood acting as a backdrop, the Sterling was able to withhold dollar’s rebound better than its European peer. Economic docket will be dollar dominated for the rest of this week, key data like US GDP and Pending Home Sales will be out on Thursday.

Kiwi was the best performer against the dollar greenback as RBNZ lift their projection in the second half of 2022. It is the second central bank to send out hawkish signal, the first being BoC. Kiwi promptly surge 1.1% after the announcement, went as far as 0.7316. On the other hand, its antipodean peer Aussie initially ride with RBNZ’s positive shock, but all gains were pared by recovering dollar, closed the day down 0.1%.

USDCAD continues to rebound after failed to break the 1.2022 support, climbed 0.4% on Wednesday. However, the bounce may be temporary as oil prices are advancing further, the WTI crude oil futures reclaimed $66 and Brent futures are getting closer to $69. Oil price will be closely monitored since it can used as a proxy for future inflation, persistent biddings may indicate rapid economic activities, hence leading to high inflation figures.

Technical Analysis:

AUDNZD (Daily Chart)

The knee-jerking reaction in AUDNZD was triggered by RBNZ’s hawkish tone, though the interest rate was left unchanged. The pair plunged nearly 1% on Wednesday, refreshed the largest one-day loss since last March. Price pierced through 61.8% Fibonacci support of 1.064 and look to contest a low point at 1.053. Some traders were probably expecting a positive shift in RBNZ’s narrative at the beginning of this week, thus the dynamic upward support line was already under attack earlier. Given the magnitude of this decisive breakout, it really sets the bearish trading sentiment in the coming month, unless RBA can pull off something similar. There is a chance for price to revisit 1.064, which would be healthy for the longer-term trend.

Resistance: 1.0643, 1.0725, 1.082

Support: 1.057, 1.052, 1.0433

USDCHF (Daily Chart)

USDCHF has been on a rather steep decline since April, retreated 5.7% from a yearly high of 0.947. The south travel was mostly dominated by sellers, no sight of any significant rebounds in the last two months. Price already breached the 23.6% Fibonacci support of 0.9, and now eyes for another crucial level at 0.884 on the downside. It would take huge dedications from the bulls to push price back above 0.91 handle in order to reverse this strong selling bias. Otherwise, the pair will remain subdued, which resonates with MACD bearish signal.

Resistance: 0.9, 0.908, 0.9154

Support: 0.889, 0.884, 0.878

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold ramped up to $1900 mark earlier than we’ve expected, even advanced to $1913 during mid-day. The constantly leg up in the precious metal is probably associated with institutional inflows like hedge funds and ETFs. We still expect some form of correction coming, likely receding toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $1847. With big players bulking their Gold positions against flying inflation, the pullback in Gold will be bumpy ahead. On the upside, there are quite some open spaces to capitalize on, the nearest resistance lays around $1955, next to a big round $2000. RSI indicated Gold is overheated, which also echo with our short-term correction theory.

Resistance: 1955, 2000

Support: 1847, 1815, 1782

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equities market kicked off the week with some handsome gains. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 rose 1.82% and 1.14% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index lagged slightly behind. Technology shares led gains across the board as inflation concerns are being addressed by Fed officials today.

The US said Americans should avoid traveling to Japan, with the country under a state of emergency over a widening COVID-19 outbreak that raised doubts about Tokyo’s plans to host the Olympics on July 23rd. The US State Department escalate its travel advisory to level four on Japan as the country has been struggling with vaccine rollout, and thus the rising number of infections.

Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk continues to roil the crypto world, sending tweets to indicate support greener operation of crypto mining. Bitcoin advanced as much as 19% to around $40,000 following the tweets. It has plunged as low as $31,132 on Sunday.

Main Pairs Movement:

Euro gained 0.3% against its US counterpart to start the week. Federal Reserve officials pushed back against the threat that high inflation will stay, saying they would not be surprised to see bottlenecks and supply shortages will bump up prices in the short term. St. Louis’s James Bullard said “A very important part of inflation dynamics is longer-term inflation expectations and those have been extremely well anchored, implying that if we saw some development pushing inflation up I wouldn’t expect that to get embedded in the ongoing inflation rate.

Cable rose as little as 0.06% on Monday. The pair mainly followed today’s trend of dollar weakness, but vaccine optimism continues to act as a backdrop for the Sterling. Boris Johnson’s plan to reopen UK is on track as data shows over 60 million shots were given out, 72% of adults have received a first dose of vaccine, and 43% have received both shots. Government’s goal is to fully remove social restrictions by June 21, though some worried the emergence of the new variant, but a report from Public Health England suggests vaccines from Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca Plc are highly effective against the strain. It is a big deal if UK can beat EU and US to be the first economy immunized to COVID-19, thus setting the Pound for an upward trajectory.

Aussie fell around 0.4% during Asian session, but reversed upward in US session, closed the day up 0.22%. China officials are trying to temper overheating commodities prices, and pledge severe punishment for violations in commodities markets. Iron Ore price, one of the most exported commodities from Australia, is suffering from the sudden announcement, and looks to extend declines this week.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

Euro dollar swing traders could be baffled by the pairs undecisive moves in the past couple days, rose and fell around 50 pips each day. Horizontal support of 1.217 was under fire, and it survived, showing the resilient support level is worthy to defend. Now that we have established a rather strong foundation, the shared currency is set to edge higher against the dollar greenback, likely toward yearly high of 1.235. Recent German bund yields keep rising, with the 10-year yield recovered to -0.142% from January’s -0.6%, and exerts pressure on its US counterpart.

Resistance: 1,235

Support: 1.2175, 1.21, 1.195

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold has been on a decent rally after shrugged off the $1800 hurdle. However, we have witnessed some exhaustion from the bulls as price spent the past three trading days within a tight range ahead of $1888, which marks the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. Judging the Relative Strength Index of 73, we should be expecting some pullback sooner or later. The odds of a larger retracement would significantly increase if it falls below $1874 with a solid decisive candle. That being said, an interception between previous descending trendline and 38.2 Fibonacci line at $1847 looks like a good place to rest on before climbing back towards $1900.

Resistance: 1900, 1955

Support: 1848, 1815, 1780

USDCAD (Weekly Chart)

Bidders on USDCAD must be scratching their head as the pair pierced through multiple big support lines in a weekly timeframe, and the slide just seem non-stoppable. It is currently sitting north 2015’s low of 1.2065, price did rebound from the support line just like other times in the past several months, in which bidders failed to defend after all. The bears could definitely enjoy some extra gains if the current support line collapses. The nearest key level below would be 1.1671, dated back in December 2014. It is truly amazing for Canadian dollar to pull off such incredible bullish run, RSI of 23 indicated extreme oversold condition, a number that was last seen during the Financial Crisis, and yet we are about to see further plunges.

Resistance: 1.2, 1.245

Support: 1.1671

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ” .

Please note the specific adjustments as follows:

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Technology companies led a rebound in U.S. equities on Thursday after a report showing U.S. stocks were mixed after investors were whipsawed in part by volatile trading in high-risk assets such as Bitcoin amid lingering concerns about the outlook for inflation. Oil rose for the first time in four trading sessions.

The S&P 500 closed little changed after erasing earlier gains when Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the central bank should speak about reducing bond buying sooner rather than later. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 finished lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained as investors shifted from growth to value favorites such as Boeing. Bitcoin resumed its selloff Friday after China reiterated a warning that it intends to crack down on cryptocurrency mining as part of an effort to control financial risks.

European shares climbed earlier on prospects of easing lockdowns and as services data signaled a recovery. Asian shares were mostly higher, although they slipped in China.

China has long expressed displeasure with the anonymity provided by Bitcoin and other crypto tokens, and warned earlier in the week that financial institutions weren’t allowed to accept it for payment. China is home to a large concentration of the world’s crypto miners, programmers who use massive computing power to verify transactions on the blockchain.

The global economic revival, the risk of a significant pickup in inflation and Covid-19 flareups in some parts of the world continue to shape market moves. Stocks have been volatile this week, with speculative ardor cooling as minutes from the latest Fed meeting flagged the possibility of a debate at some point on scaling back stimulus measures. Still, better-than-forecast jobless claims data on Thursday buoyed sentiment.

Main Pairs Movement:

The dollar outperformed its Group-of-10 currency peers Friday as a gauge of output at U.S. manufacturers and service providers set a record in May, reflecting strength in the economic recovery. The euro retreated from a key level as investors cut long positions. Treasury yields were little changed, and the dollar gained. Gold dropped from its highest level in more than four months.

Among G-10 peers, the krone was the weakest and is on track to be the worst performer this week; the pound topped all this week, while the loonie was poised for a seventh straight weekly advance, the longest run since September. USD/CAD +0.1% at 1.2077; poised for a weekly drop of 0.2%.

USD/JPY +0.2% to 108.95; pair still heading for weekly drop of 0.4%; spike in activity after U.S. Markit PMIs; pair tracking Treasury yield-curve flattening.

Bitcoin is heading into the weekend in freefall again after a fresh warning from Chinese officials over cracking down on cryptocurrencies.

The largest digital currency fell as much as 10% in late Friday trading to as low as $35,636, and peer tokens also posted double-digit losses. The coin almost hit $30,000 earlier in the week, after ending May 14 at $49,100.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

After moving upside bounder near 1.223 in the earlier trading session, the euro fiber cap under bearish stress and hiting the daily low of 1.217, slightly back up way, trading at 1.2184 as of writing. The sheen greenback upward strength amid HIS Markit reported on Friday, the business activities in the private sector expanded at a record setting pace in May with the Manufacturing PMI and Service PMI that both reach to a sanguine high at 61.5 and 70.1, respectively. Meanwhile, German PMI data missed the estimation of 65.9 versus publish 64. For technical aspect, RSI indicator set around 47 figures which shows market sentiment turn to slightly-bearish moementum. On average price view, 15-long SMA indicator turn it way to southside while market continued choppy in a range and 60-long SMA retained upside slope yet turn flat move.

As we mention in recently, euro seems fail to defended the 1.22 level as it keep mess around in confined range. On the other hands, RSI indicator and short term moving average are both show a weakness of buy side momentum. Moreover, in price action aspect, euro fail to build a sideway comfort support area; instead, form a double head pattern.

Resistance: 1,22

Support: 1.2151, 1.2106, 1.207

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Sterling retreadted sharply after touched 1.4233 the highest level since Feb, dropped to nearly day lows at 1.4156 amid dollar hype to 90 threshold as the highs across the board. The benchmark of U.S. 10 years Treasuries yields move tiny changed in the day while the performance of U.S. eco data shows mixed as positive in PMI and home sales fail to estimation. Nevertheless, tri-PMI data shows strong economy performance in recent, still could not thrive the market to upside. For RSI side, indicator shows 40 figure which nearby a neutral market movement after sterling sharply slum. On the other hands, 15-long SMA indicator remain smooth move and 60-long SMA indicator remaining a ascending movement.

At the moment, pound seems looking again to 1.42 level while await to further buy-in demand for bullish boost up. For price action, we believe pound could still roam between first resistance and support level. In addition, if pound could breakthrough 1.42 level, it could see further gains to higher stage.

Resistance: 1.42

Support: 1.3959, 1.4, 1.4108

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold extended it consolidative sideways price action throughout the European session and remained confined in a limited range, slight above 1875 stage, trading at 1879.7 as of writing. For moving average side, 15-long SMA indicator retained it slope to upside trend and 60-long SMAs indicator retaining it north side momentum. For RSI side, inidcator show 58 figures, suggesting a room for up way in forthcoming.

At current stage, gold try climbed to closer multi-month perch while seems lack of a bull momentum, however, it jumped to 1888 level in earlier session. We still believe gold market is eyeing $1900 mark, wating for follow-through buying stimulation. For long perspective, we still believe downside trend will be a pivotal support level. Furthernore, we hope the 1850 level could firmly defend if any upwind move.

Resistance: 1900

Support: 1850, 1812.88, 1800, 1763.837

Economic Data

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

Technology companies led a rebound in U.S. equities on Thursday after a report showing applications for state unemployment insurance fell last week to a fresh pandemic low rekindled optimism in the economic recovery.

The Nasdaq 100 Index jumped to a two-week high, with gains in megacaps including Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Tesla Inc. powering the advance. Tech stocks rose the most in the S&P 500 as all of the major industry groups moved higher. Ford Motor Co. rose for the first time in three sessions on plans to create a joint venture to manufacture electric-vehicle batteries in the U.S.

The latest jobs report comes after mounting concern that faster inflation will prompt authorities to ease back on stimulus has weighed on risk assets in recent sessions. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed some officials were open to a debate at “upcoming meetings” on scaling back bond purchases if the U.S. economy continued to progress rapidly.

Thursday’s rally pushed the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 above its average price for the past 50 days. That level is a key trend indicator for traders and has proven to be a buy signal in past rebounds.

Main Pairs Movement:

Cryptocurrencies pared gains after the U.S. Treasury Department called for stronger tax compliance. Bitcoin, which whipsawed investors with huge price swings on Wednesday, was up less than 5% at 4 p.m. in New York after climbing as much as 11%.

Oil extended declines to a three-week low after Iran’s president said the broad outline of a deal to end sanctions on its oil had been reached. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell as the dollar weakened.

Commodity currencies advanced as traders faded Wednesday’s dollar bounce that came from the latest Federal Reserve minutes. It had advanced on Wednesday after April’s Fed minutes showed some officials indicated a willingness to discuss a tapering of bond purchases.

AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.7745, holding onto gains even after a miss in the April employment report.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro dollar shrugged off the Wednesday’s FOMC-inspired losses that traveling to higher during the U.S. session, trading above 1.22 threshold at 1.2227 as of writing, as much as .48% gains in the day. Meanwhile, greenback has loss the upper traction as U.S. shares market risk sentiment improve and eco data manifest mixed. For technical aspect, RSI indicator set around 65 figures which shows there still have a room for upper way. On average price view, 15-long SMA indicator is ongoing ascending trend in day market after it euro aimed to higher stack and 60-long SMA retained upside slope.

As we mention in recently, we remain our upside expectation as it continued to hold buy-side demand, defended in few vital support as well. At the same time, we expect euro dollar is architecting a comfort zone for further bullish momentum. Since, we deem the first immediately support level is at 1.22, 1.215 following. On contrast, we consider there has a psychological resistance at 1.225~1.226 around.

Resistance:

Support: 1.22, 1.2151, 1.2106, 1.207

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Pound bounced up from yesterday gloomy movement and traded in nearly high level around 1.42 as demand for the dollar receded, trading at 1.4185 as of writing. The improvement in risk appetite weighed on the U.S. dollar fell. The DXY index has fallen to 89.78, remaining the near lows, heading to May’s low. For RSI side, indicator shows 62 figures, suggesting a room for upper side. On the other hands, 15-long SMA indicator remain smooth move after jumped higher in the day and 60-long SMA indicator remaining a ascending movement.

At the moment, pound seems looking again to 1.42 level while await to further buy-in demand for bullish boost up. For price action, we believe pound could still roam between first resistance and support level. In addition, if pound could breakthrough 1.42 level, it could see further gains to higher stage. On the other hands, the Kingdom will unveil leading eco data as PMI figure, expecting a fluctuation move ahead.

Resistance: 1.42

Support: 1.3959, 1.4, 1.4108

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold was traded at higher place with $7 gains in the day as the U.S. dollar falls away weighed by shrink U.S. yields and ends with U.S. shares market better-bid, trading at 1876.8 as of writing. Meanwhile, In the U.S. calendar side, Initial Claims rose less than expected and Philly Fed index missed the estimates at 31.5 figures for the month of May.For moving average side, 15-long SMA indicator retained it slope to upside trend and 60-long SMAs indicator retaining it north side momentum. For RSI side, inidcator show 61 figures, suggesting toward to bullis market in short term.

At current stage, Gold seems to heading the challenge of three-month highs despite U.S. central bank’s tapering delimma. Overall, we see gold has steadied above downside trend after recent days spiral. For long perspective, we still believe downside trend will be a pivotal support level. Furthernore, we hope the 1850 level could firmly defend if any upwind move.

Resistance: 1900

Support: 1850, 1812.88, 1800, 1763.837

Economic Data

Daily Position Report

PNL Changed (System Time 5/19 00:00- 5/19 23:50) Total PNL During the Day

Clients’ gains were around 2.437 M ten mins ahead of the EOD.

Intraday Client PNL

Clients Profit

Clients Loss

Client Net Position

BOOK Exposure & Top PNL at EOD

Market Focus

U.S. stocks closed mixed and Treasury yields rose as minutes showed Federal Reserve officials were cautiously optimistic about the U.S. recovery at their April meeting, with some signaling they’d be open “at some point” to discussing scaling back the central bank’s massive bond purchases.

The S&P 500 fell for a third day, and 10-year Treasury yields jumped to session highs following the release. Energy and raw-material stocks fell the most as commodities prices tumbled amid mounting concern about inflation and potential curbs on monetary stimulus. The Nasdaq 100 notched a small advance, boosted by late-day gains in tech stocks including Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc.

At its worst moment, Bitcoin dropped about 30% to within a whisker of $30,000. It pared that decline to about 8% by 4 p.m. New York time. Other cryptocurrencies held double-digit percentage losses, pressured in part by a Tuesday statement from the People’s Bank of China reiterating that digital tokens can’t be used as a form of payment.

Stocks have lost steam in recent sessions, with pricier sectors such as technology tumbling on worries about inflation and a Covid-19 resurgence in some countries. While policymakers have signaled, they intend to maintain an accommodative stance for some time to come, traders will parse the Fed’s minutes for clues about the outlook. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which touched a nine-year high last week, fell for a second day as oil, copper, soybeans and almost every other futures contract linked to industrial and agricultural staples retreated.

Main Pairs Movement:

A gauge of the dollar’s strength halted a four-day loss as traders awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve’s April meeting for clues on its next policy move.

The euro climbed to the highest since January and funds already long the currency left buy stops above the Feb. 25 high of 1.2243 to add to their positions, traders said. USD/JPY bounced off residual buy orders carried over from the New York session above 108.80, according to other traders.

The Norwegian krone and the euro gained the most among Group-of-10 currencies while the New Zealand dollar fell. USD/NOK dropped 0.2% to 8.2118; NZD/USD retreated 0.3% to 0.7228.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro fiber sharply slipped with the initial market reaction to FOMC Minute, fell from day high at 1.2245 level to nearly day lowest spot, trading at 1.2173 as of writing. FOMC’s April meeting showed some policymakers are concerned about rising inflation in near term, provide a boost to the greenback. For technical aspect, RSI indicator retreat from overbought territory that shows 51 figures, which suggest a neutral momentum for short run. On average price view, 15-long SMA indicator is ongoing ascending trend in day market after it euro aimed to higher stack and 60-long SMA retained upside slope.

At the moment, we expect market will remain bull movement in further if euro fiber could hold above 1.2151 level. Meawhile, it also focus on ECB President Largarde speaking tomorrow that could give market a direction and policymaker favor for upcoming euro movement. Moreover, euro need to be defend the 50 level of RSI indicator to ensure that market remain long-side momentum.

Resistance: 1.22

Support: 1.2151, 1.2106, 1.207

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Sterling retreated from perch to fresh lows after Fed’s hawkish statement in FOMC minute while down nearly .47% in the day and traveled to day low bound, trading at 1.4116 as of writing. Some officials saw taper talk starting at upcoming meeting and schedule but note that the economy still have a gap from they goals. For RSI side, indicator shows 45 figures after plummet, suggesting a slightly-bear market ahead. On the other hands, 15-long SMA indicator start turn flat move after overwhelming and 60-long SMA indicator remaining a ascending movement.

As price action demonstrate, it seems fail to defend the 1.42 level as dollar strong boost up, moreover, sterling sentiment has slipped to bearish side. Therefore, we need to see the first support level could be defended. If market momentum could shoaring up the first support level, we expect it could roam between first resistance and support level. If market consecutive fell, we expect market would test the psychological suppport level at 1.4.

Resistance: 1.42

Support: 1.3959, 1.4, 1.4108

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold traveled with sightly change in the day market after dollar index jumped higher over 90 which aimed to FOMC hawkish meeting result that scared market, while U.S. 10 years Treasuries yield flare up to nearly months high. On the other hands, crytocurrencies market went extremely volatility due to regulatory worry which lead market transfer fund to gold market with risk-off flow. For moving average side, 15-long SMA indicator retained it slope to upside trend and 60-long SMAs indicator retaining it north side momentum. For RSI side, inidcator shows 59 figures after it touch once over bought territory, suggesting slightly-bull market move at current stage.

Overall, we see gold seems steady above downside trend after choppy move in the day market. For long perspective, we still believe downside trend will be a pivotal support level. Furthernore, we hope the 1850 level could firmly defend if any upwind move.

Resistance: 1900

Support: 1850, 1812.88, 1800, 1763.837

Economic Data