Dividend Adjustment Notice – July 18, 2023

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Wall Street Prepares for Earnings Season Amidst Optimism and Economic Uncertainty

In a positive start to the week, stock markets experienced gains as Wall Street braced itself for the release of quarterly reports from major global companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its highest closing level in 2023, adding 76.32 points (0.22%) to close at 34,585.35. The S&P 500 climbed 0.39% to end the session at 4,522.79, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.93% to 14,244.95. Notably, tech-giant Apple saw a 1.7% increase, Tesla climbed 3.2%, and JPMorgan Chase shares ticked up 2.4%.

The second-quarter earnings season gains momentum this week, with notable reports from major financial institutions like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, along with companies such as United Airlines, Las Vegas Sands, Tesla, and Netflix. Analysts anticipate a challenging season, with a projected decline of over 7% in S&P 500 earnings compared to the previous year. Additionally, as the Federal Reserve enters its “blackout period” before its July policy meeting, traders are expecting a 97% likelihood of interest rate hikes later this month, after pausing them in June.

Despite concerns over profitability and economic performance, the stock market experienced a winning week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 2.3%, its best weekly gain since March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw gains of 2.4% and 3.3%, respectively. Market sentiment appears to be buoyed by the belief in a disinflationary, soft landing scenario. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, expressed his perspective that although the economy may be experiencing a rolling recession, it is not a widespread economic downturn. Instead, he sees it as a rolling recovery.

These market movements were influenced by positive big bank earnings and softer inflation reports, which instilled hope that the central bank can effectively manage inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. As investors eagerly await earnings reports and monitor the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions, Wall Street faces a mixture of optimism and economic uncertainty.

Data by Bloomberg

On Monday, the stock market showed a mixed performance. Information Technology had a strong day, gaining 1.33%, while sectors like Utilities and Communication Services experienced declines of 1.18% and 0.65% respectively. The overall market ended with a 0.39% increase.

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Major Pair Movement

The US dollar index experienced a slight decline of 0.1% as its rebound from last week’s significant drop started to fade. Investors were eagerly awaiting the release of US retail sales data, which would determine whether the recent selloff driven by disinflation concerns would continue. Despite indications of disinflation and expectations of future rate hikes, the dollar had reached an oversold condition against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound. The currency was in need of consolidation or a correction, especially after the surprisingly positive July Michigan consumer sentiment, which suggested that the US economy was handling the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes better than anticipated.

The performance of the euro against the US dollar saw a slight increase of 0.1% after experiencing a decline from its recent high. Despite reports of falling German wholesale prices and unexpected drops in exports, the euro maintained its strong gains from July. Additionally, the yield spreads between 2-year bunds and US Treasury bonds remained significantly negative. The recovery of the US dollar against the Japanese yen faced resistance at a previously broken uptrend line, although Monday’s trading range exhibited higher lows and highs for the first time since the trend high in late June. The British pound declined by 0.1% ahead of the release of US retail sales and UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USDTrades Rangebound as USD Weakens Despite Tepid Chinese Data and ECB Comments

The EUR/USD pair traded within a narrow range on Monday, hovering around 1.1240. The US Dollar weakened during American trading hours, despite tepid Chinese GDP data. European Central Bank (ECB) officials provided little fresh insight, with policymakers mentioning the need to tighten policy and raise interest rates based on upcoming data. ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed concerns about stagnant GDP growth and increasing trade restrictions. The Fed and ECB will announce their monetary policy decisions next week. In terms of US economic data, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for July came in below expectations but exceeded the previous month’s figure, while June Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization are set to be released on Tuesday.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

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According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair is experiencing a flat consolidating movement on Monday, creating the Bollinger Bands to squeeze. The price is still near the upper bands of the Bollinger Bands. This suggests that the price has the potential to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 78, which is within the overbought area, indicating a bullish trend for the EUR/USD.

Resistance: 1.1291, 1.1382

Support: 1.1173, 1.1086

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

Gold (XAU/USD) Temporarily Ease as Market Awaits Central Bank Updates and US Inflation Progress

Gold prices showed a temporary decline on Monday, with XAU/USD trading around $1,954, remaining flat for the day after reaching a low of $1,945.72 per troy ounce. Investor excitement in the financial markets calmed down as attention turned to upcoming key events, including central bank announcements and an update on US inflation. The US Dollar made a modest recovery after its recent collapse, although its gains were insignificant compared to the sell-off triggered by speculation that the Federal Reserve may end its tightening cycle earlier than expected. US inflation data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), came in below expectations, suggesting that the Fed may only implement one rate hike instead of the anticipated two.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD pair underwent a consolidating movement on Monday, around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Suggesting the possibility of further upward movement. This indicates the potential for the price to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 59, within the overbought area, indicating a neutral but slightly bullish trend for the XAU/USD.

Resistance: $1,965, $1,981

Support: $1,946, $1,929

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
CADConsumer Price Index20:300.3%
USDRetail Sales20:300.5%

Dividend Adjustment Notice – July 17, 2023

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Week Ahead: Markets to Focus on US Retail Sales and Canada, UK CPI

This week’s economic calendar features US Retail Sales figures, as well as inflation data from both the UK and Canada — all of which have the capacity to move markets significantly. Therefore, it is crucial for traders to be prepared for any volatility that may arise from these key announcements and adjust their approaches as needed.

Keep an eye on the following economic releases:

Canada Consumer Price Index (18 July 2023)

Consumer prices in Canada rose by 0.4% in May 2023, slowing from the 0.7% increase in the previous month. 

Analysts anticipate a 0.4% increase in the figures for June, set to be released on 18 July.

US Retail Sales (18 July 2023) 

US retail sales rose 0.3% month-over-month in May 2023, following a 0.4% increase in April.

Analysts expect a similar 0.3% growth in the figures for June, scheduled for release on 18 July.

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (19 July 2023) 

The Consumer Price Index in New Zealand rose by 1.2% in the March quarter, representing the smallest quarterly price increase since Q1 2021.

Analysts predict a 1.1% uptick in figures for the upcoming quarter, set to be released on 19 July.

UK Consumer Price Index (19 July 2023) 

The UK’s consumer price inflation remained stable at 8.7% in May 2023, repeating the 13-month low recorded in the previous month. 

Anticipated for release on July 19, the upcoming CPI data is expected to show a further decline to 8.3%.

Employment in Australia (20 July 2023) 

Employment in Australia surged by 75,900 to 14.1 million in May 2023. This followed a revised drop of around 4,000 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.6%, down from April’s figure of 3.7%. 

Analysts expect employment figures to increase by 25,100 in the data for June 2023, set to be released on 20 July. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.6%. 

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4 Things Sports Can Teach Us About Trading

As sportswriting legend Bill Simmons once said, “The secret to basketball is that it isn’t about basketball.”

To Simmons, who built his media career off of being an unabashed fan of Boston sports, watching sports isn’t necessarily about the sports but about everything else that affects it—relationships, personalities, and internal struggles. 

While this might be a fairly reductionist view, Bill Simmons nonetheless presents an invaluable perspective for understanding sports. Sports, at their core, are about appreciating the facets of humanity that we either hold dear or seek to understand. Things like success and failure, cooperation and competition, all elicit thoughts and emotions shared by the everyman and the sporting Superman alike. 

Viewing sports as a means of understanding people is something that can be applied in pretty much any field. However, as a domain where success and failure often hinge on psychology, trading in particular enables us to learn and apply lessons from the world’s greatest athletes.

Here are four of the very best takeaways:

1) A Strong Foundation Is Key

First in, last out is the mentality carried by many of the greatest athletes of all time. It’s clear how this type of mindset is beneficial—the more hours you put in, the bigger of an advantage you’ll have. But this mindset comes with a caveat: it’s not just about the hours you put in, but the quality of them and the foundation you set.

Look no further than three of the most talented athletes in the world right now—Virat Kohli, Shohei Ohtani, and Victor Wembanyama. 

Virat Kohli, one of the greatest cricket players of all time, trains five to six days a week and adheres to a strict vegetarian diet. More impressively, Kohli also owns an entire chain of fitness gyms, demonstrating his sheer dedication to physical preparation.

Similarly, you have Shohei Ohtani—arguably the best baseball player in the world right now—who has lived and breathed baseball since he was a kid. Look at Ohtani talking about his essential items, and it’s easy to see how he attained his current level of success. Everything he values—ice machines, compression machines, accessories to improve his sleep—is solely dedicated to making him a better baseball player, and he cuts the fat from everything else.

Finally, Victor Wembanyama, the most hyped NBA prospect since LeBron James, prioritises taking care of his feet, the key to his mobility as one of basketball’s best big men. At a whopping 7”5, Wembanyama is acutely aware of the dangers that his height and chosen sport pose when it comes to foot injuries, which is why, even as a teenager, he spends millions of dollars making sure his feet are safe and strong.

What all these athletes have in common is that they put an emphasis on building a good foundation. Regardless of sport, they all share the notion that time and money invested into their bodies will translate to success in their chosen discipline.

The same holds true for trading. Success in trading isn’t just about the hours spent placing trades but also about the hours put into skill development. If you consistently view education and continuous learning as a priority, you’ll likely reap the same rewards that Kohli, Ohtani, and Wembanyama have enjoyed thus far.

2) Adaptability Opens Up New Paths to Success

Ever wonder how legends like Lionel Messi and LeBron James still manage to be top-tier athletes, despite both pushing 40 years old? It isn’t just natural ability; it’s in the way they view the game.

LeBron is essentially a basketball genius whose greatest strength is in his ability to analyse the floor. At a macro level, this manifests in how LeBron has been able to change his game throughout the years and add different skills to his impressive athletic frame. When LeBron’s lack of post moves was exploited by Dallas in the NBA Finals 2011, he added them to his already-impressive repertoire. When his lack of a three-point shot was exploited by San Antonio, he added those too and sent the Spurs packing. Now, as an older player, LeBron plays a slower, more precise game than ever before.

Just like LeBron, Messi evolved from being a hyper-athletic youngster into a more complete player. Under the guidance of his former coach, Pep Guardiola, Messi evolved from using his natural speed to score goals, into being craftier and creating more scoring opportunities for others. Then, when Luis Suarez arrived at Barca, Messi became more of an inside player, reinforcing the team’s front line.

Similarly to basketball and football, trading is an extremely dynamic endeavour. Trends shift quickly, and new technologies and ways of thinking often come in to change the game completely. As a trader, it’s important to be ready for these changes. As with Messi and LeBron, there’s a lot of value in staying ahead of the curve and keeping up with change when it gets ahead of you. Be on your toes, and allow yourself to grow as the trading world evolves around you.

3) Winners Can Be Patient When the Pressure Is On

In a fast-moving endeavour like sports, where split-second decisions are constantly made, being patient might seem counterintuitive. However, patience has also played an indispensable role in allowing Tom Brady to become the greatest NFL player ever.

Brady, noted for his excellent passing arm, supplements his physical gifts with an innate ability to survey the floor. Perhaps Brady’s greatest moment came when his Patriots came back from a 28-3 deficit to win the Super Bowl in 2017. This feat wouldn’t have happened without Brady’s incredible patience in assessing the situation, carrying out smart play after smart play, and tying the game with an insane throw to Julian Edelman.

Had Brady let the pressure of being behind get to him, the Patriots would’ve never beaten the Falcons. And if Brady had constantly let his nerves get the better of him, he would probably have a lot fewer than seven Super Bowl rings. 

As any trader is well aware, things move fast in the world of trading. Prices change almost instantly, and trades which looked terrible yesterday might look absolutely inspired today. This often pressures traders into making immediate decisions they aren’t always comfortable with. 

Just like Tom Brady, traders should be patient before making any rash decisions. While old, the oft-given advice to separate emotions from trading is absolutely gold. Emotionally-charged decisions like trying to compensate for missed trades or trading in something you haven’t studied is a fast track to ruin. Like Brady, it can often pay to embrace discipline in high-pressure situations: slow down, understand the situation, then make the game-winning play.

4) The Biggest Lessons Can Come From Failure

Finally, perhaps the most important thing anyone can learn from sports is how to bounce back from a loss. Pretty much all of the greatest players ever have suffered some sort of humiliating loss, but their ability to manoeuvre through it and stay the course is what led them down the path of greatness.

Take for example tennis superstars like Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams. Nadal has had some embarrassing losses, including his semifinal loss to Juan Martin del Potro in the 2009 US Open and when he failed at the break point against Novak Djokovic in the 2019 Australian Open. 

Serena Williams, similarly, has known the ignominy of defeat: her crushing 2018 stinker against Johanna Konta saw Williams committing a near-absurd 25 unforced errors.

Despite these setbacks, both Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams refused to quit or allow themselves to crumble mentally. By adopting a resilient mindset through the tough times, they were both able to bounce back and eventually etch their names into legend.

While traders might not vie for points or championships, the stakes they play for can be just as high as any. Bad decisions—even bad luck—can result in huge losses and days where it feels like you have no option except to quit.

In these moments, think of Nadal and Williams. Think of Jerry West, who lost eight NBA Finals but still found immortality as part of the NBA logo. Think of every athlete who has failed and dealt with that failure with the entire world watching. And then, like them, try again.

Make the clutch play: click here to create your live VT Markets account and start trading.

Dividend Adjustment Notice – July 14, 2023

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Notification of Server Upgrade – July 14, 2023

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be server maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Hours :
15th of July 2023 (Saturday) 02:00 – 08:30 (GMT+3)

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:

1. The price quote feature on the Client Portal will be temporarily unavailable. You will not be able to open new positions or close existing positions.

2. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed.

3. Please refer to MT4/MT5 for the latest update on the completion and market opening time. Our services will be back online once the maintenance is completed.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Eases Concerns

Stocks surged on Thursday as the latest inflation data came below expectations, leading to renewed optimism in the market. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reached their highest levels in over a year, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.85% to 4,510.04 and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 1.58% to 14,138.57.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a modest gain of 0.14%, adding 47.71 points to close at 34,395.14. Notably, cybersecurity stock Palo Alto Networks saw a notable increase of 2.7%, while MGM Resorts and Alphabet rose 4.1% and 4.7%, respectively.

The positive market performance was attributed to the release of June’s producer price index (PPI) report, which indicated a smaller increase than anticipated. The PPI, measuring wholesale prices, rose by 0.1% in June, falling short of economists’ expectations of a 0.2% increase.

Furthermore, the core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.1%, below the anticipated level. The favourable inflation data further complemented the optimism generated by Wednesday’s consumer price index report, fueling investors’ confidence in the market.

All sectors performance with a positive trend except for Health Care and Energy sectors.

Data by Bloomberg

On Thursday, the overall market experienced a positive trend, with all sectors showing gains except for the Health Care and Energy sectors. The communication services sector had the highest increase, rising by 2.32%. The Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors also performed well, with gains of 1.49% and 1.08% respectively.

The Materials and Real Estate sectors saw moderate increases of 0.79% and 0.67% respectively. The Consumer Staples, Utilities, Financials, and Industrials sectors also showed positive but smaller gains, ranging from 0.38% to 0.37%. However, the Health Care sector experienced a marginal decline of -0.01%, while the energy sector showed a decrease of -0.45%.

Major Pair Movement

The dollar index experienced a significant decline of 0.7%, marking a weekly plunge of 2.4% and dropping below 100 for the first time since April 2022. This decline in the dollar was accompanied by a decrease in 2-year Treasury yields by 12 basis points. Market expectations now suggest that the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in July will likely be the last one before a series of rate cuts totalling nearly 200 basis points next year.

In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to raise rates by 50 basis points before implementing rate cuts of around 65 basis points in the second half of 2024. The positive sentiment toward the euro resulted in a 0.8% increase in the EUR/USD exchange rate, surpassing the key 200-week moving average and reaching its highest level since April 2022.

The anticipation of additional rate hikes and China’s stimulus measures contributed to a surge of 1.5% in the AUD/USD exchange rate. Despite concerns surrounding the situation, USD/CNH fell by 0.25%. The Swiss franc (CHF) experienced a 1% decline against the US dollar (USD), reaching its lowest level since the Swiss National Bank removed its 1.20 EUR/CHF floor in January 2015.

The USD/JPY pair, which had fallen by 4.3% in June, saw a modest increase of 0.34% on Thursday as it encountered support near the 138 expiry level. If the pair closes below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its advance in 2023, at 138.25 and 138, further downward pressure may be expected.

Additionally, gold prices rose by 1.1% following the departure of a member of the Bank of England (BoE), reinforcing expectations of aggressive rate hikes totalling 117 basis points to address the current economic challenges.

Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USDGains Momentum Amid Dollar Sell-Off and ECB’s Interest Rate Speculation

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its upward trajectory for the sixth consecutive day as the US Dollar experienced another round of selling pressure, driven by US inflation data indicating a slowdown. The negative momentum of the Dollar persists, potentially paving the way for further gains, although the extent of the rally suggests a potential consolidation or modest correction.

The European Central Bank (ECB) released minutes from its recent meeting, echoing President Lagarde’s comments about potential interest rate hikes beyond July if deemed necessary. Meanwhile, upcoming economic growth forecasts and trade balance data from the European Commission, along with declining US and Eurozone yields, continue to shape the market sentiment. The latest Producer Price Index figures highlighted a further slowdown in inflation, leading to additional losses for the Dollar, while the upcoming Consumer Confidence data is anticipated on Friday.

EURUSD gains as the US Dollar experienced another round of selling pressure, driven by US inflation data

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair is experiencing an upward movement on Thursday, pushing towards the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is still near the upper bands of the Bollinger Bands, and the bands themselves indicate the potential for further upward movement.

This suggests that the price has the potential to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 84, which is within the overbought area, indicating a bullish trend for the EUR/USD.

Resistance: 1.1291, 1.1382

Support: 1.1173, 1.1086

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

Gold (XAU/USD) Consolidates as Markets Remain Optimistic on US Inflation Easing

Gold prices held steady at $1,958 per troy ounce as financial markets maintained an optimistic outlook on easing United States (US) inflation. The release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) indicated a modest year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 0.1%. The core annual reading of 2.4% was lower than expected and the previous figure, reinforcing positive sentiment.

Despite the US Dollar’s decline, investors turned their attention to high-yielding assets, resulting in limited gains for gold. While Wall Street maintained modest gains, comments from San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly expressing the need for rate hikes impacted stocks, citing the economy’s momentum and uncertain wage growth’s impact on inflation.

XAUUSD consolidates as markets remain optimistic on US Inflation easing

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD pair underwent a consolidating movement on Thursday, near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Suggesting the possibility of further upward movement.

This indicates the potential for the price to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 71, within the overbought area, indicating a bullish trend for the XAU/USD.

Resistance: $1,965, $1,981

Support: $1,946, $1,929

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
USDPrelim UoM Consumer Sentiment22:0065.5

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Dividend Adjustment Notice – July 13, 2023

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Optimistic Data Spurs Stock Market Rise Amid Inflation Concerns

Stocks experienced a notable upswing on Wednesday as investors found hope in newly released data indicating the Federal Reserve’s potential to manage inflation without triggering a recession in the U.S. economy.

The S&P 500 reached its highest level of the year 2023, reflecting the overall positive sentiment in the market. Bank stocks, including Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, saw significant gains, contributing to the upward momentum.

Although the consumer price index for June rose 3% year-over-year, it fell slightly below economists’ expectations, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also rose less than anticipated.

While this was viewed as a positive sign, analysts emphasized that the Federal Reserve remains vigilant about areas such as service inflation, wage inflation, and housing inflation, which still persist at uncomfortably high levels.

Investors are closely watching both the consumer price index and the producer price index for insights into future interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve. The market currently indicates a strong probability of approximately 92% for a Fed interest rate increase during the July meeting.

As the economy continues to navigate the path of inflation, analysts remain cautiously optimistic, acknowledging that despite positive developments, the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates is not yet certain.

The market eagerly awaits the release of the upcoming producer price index data for June, which will provide further clarity on inflation trends and potentially impact the central bank’s future moves regarding interest rates.

All sectors' performance showing positive performance amid inflation concerns.

Data by Bloomberg

On Wednesday, the stock market showed positive performance across various sectors. The Communication Services sector saw the highest gain, rising by 1.51%, followed closely by Utilities with a 1.47% increase. Materials and Information Technology sectors also performed well, both gaining 1.29% and 1.25% respectively.

Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors saw moderate gains of 0.96% and 0.90% respectively. Financials and Real Estate sectors experienced smaller increases of 0.63% and 0.44% respectively. Consumer Staples sector had a modest gain of 0.23%. However, Industrials and Health Care sectors faced slight declines, dropping by 0.20% and 0.28% respectively.

Major Pair Movement

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index dropped by 1% as the U.S. CPI data came in below expectations. This led to a significant decrease in Treasury yields and pushed the dollar below its prior lows for 2023. Two-year Treasury yields fell by 15 basis points, outpacing the 12 basis point drop in 10-year yields. This shift in yields suggests a potential signal that the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle may be coming to an end.

The CPI data, along with a relatively positive beige book report, did not change the market’s expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike in July, which has been priced in since the Fed’s pause in June. However, it did reduce the likelihood of further tightening and increased expectations of rate cuts in 2024 by at least 150 basis points.

The euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) increased by 1.1% following a breakout above its prior peak for 2023. EUR/USD is approaching its pivotal 200-week moving average at 1.1183, but further disinflationary U.S. data and the Fed’s stance on 2024 rate cuts may impact its future movements.

The U.S. dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate (USD/JPY) fell by 1.47%, trading below June’s low. It briefly dipped below the 38.2% retracement level of its uptrend for 2023. While USD/JPY is oversold on daily studies, there is a possibility of a corrective bounce if it fails to indicate further decline and closes above 138.25.

The significant recovery of the yen could reduce the need for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise its cap on 10-year JGB yields. As a result, pricing by the Fed and Treasury yields remain crucial factors. Sterling (GBP) rose by 0.44%, but its boost was smaller compared to EUR/USD, as it had already broken out above its prior peak for 2023 earlier in the week.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Surges on Weakening US Dollar Amidst Inflation Data, Awaited Economic Reports and Central Bank Minutes

The EUR/USD extended its upward momentum, driven by a sharp decline in the US Dollar following disappointing US inflation data. The pair reached monthly highs as Treasury yields dropped and stocks rallied on Wall Street, boosting risk sentiment.

Market participants anticipate the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in July, but the lower-than-expected inflation figures have sparked optimism that this could be the final increase. Traders are now eagerly awaiting the US Producer Price Index report and the European Commission’s economic forecast, Industrial Production data, and the release of the European Central Bank’s latest meeting minutes.

With ongoing volatility, the pair faces the potential for both continued gains and significant corrections.

EURUSD surges on weakening US dollar amidst inflation data.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair is experiencing an upward movement on Wednesday, pushing towards the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price is still near the upper bands of the Bollinger Bands, and the bands themselves indicate the potential for further upward movement.

This suggests that the price has the potential to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 78, which is within the overbought area, indicating a bullish trend for the EUR/USD.

Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1271

Support: 1.1086, 1.0990

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

Gold (XAU/USD) Surges as Disappointing US Inflation Data Weighs on Dollar

XAU/USD experienced a strong rally, hitting an intraday high of $1,959.30 per troy ounce during the American session, as the US Dollar faltered due to lower-than-anticipated inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose by a modest 0.2% month-on-month, falling short of the expected 0.3%, while the year-on-year CPI increase was 3%.

Additionally, the core annual reading came in at 4.8%, both below forecasts, indicating a continued easing of price pressures. This development bolstered risk appetite, leading to a surge in global stocks and further weakening of the US Dollar across foreign exchange markets.

The prospect of a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle gained traction, suggesting a potential easing or conclusion of rate hikes, which could potentially mitigate the risk of a severe recession in the United States.

XAUUSD surges as disappointing US inflation data weighs on Dollar

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD pair underwent an upward movement on Wednesday, pushing towards the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is close to the upper bands of the Bollinger Bands, and the bands themselves suggest the possibility of further upward movement.

This indicates the potential for the price to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 76, within the overbought area, indicating a bullish trend for the XAU/USD.

Resistance: $1,965, $1,981

Support: $1,946, $1,929

Economic Data
CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
GBPGross Domestic Product m/m14:00-0.3%
USDUnemployment Claims20:30251K
USDProducer Price Index m/m20:300.2%
USDCore Producer Price Index m/m20:300.2%

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