US equities ended higher following a decline the previous day, and the market views this as an opportunity to re-enter the market. Additionally, the market is awaiting the outcome of President Joe Biden’s NATO and G7 summit visits. The Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded the day 1.11 percent higher; the S&P 500 ended the day 1.50 percent higher, and the Nasdaq Composite ended the day 2.08 percent higher.

NATO and G7 leaders met in Brussels to discuss beefing up NATO military forces in Ukraine’s border county, humanitarian assistance, and escalating penalties against Russia’s leadership.

This uncertainty undoubtedly prompts the most hawkish ECB board members to contemplate extending the QE program beyond the summer if the EU economies enter a recession.

Due to the region’s reliance on Russia for oil and natural gas, oil prices in the region have increased due to supply problems. After the summit, the availability of oil and natural gas may worsen further as the Russian government compels payment in rubles for these commodities.

Main Pairs Movement

NVIDIA shares rose 7.18 percent to their highest level since mid-January, while INTEL rose 5.70 percent, helping to boost the S&P500 and Nasdaq.

Meanwhile, AAPL increased marginally to 1.18 percent, marking the company’s eighth straight day of advances, and bringing the stock to its March high.

Following Wednesday’s significant increase, oil prices fell as much as 2.79 percent as the Russian government mandated that these commodities be paid in rubles.

Meanwhile, the Forex Market has been reasonably stable, although it still reacts when US Jobless Claims fall below 200K.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The cable continues to be relatively stable; our resistance level of 1.3209 has not been broken, however, upward momentum continues towards the next resistance area of 1.3269 – 1.3300. The cable’s current support ranges between 1.3125 and 1.3150. On the four-hour chart, the cable is trading above its 50- and 100-day SMAs but below its 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.3209, 1.3269

Support: 1.3125-1.3150

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD has just broken our resistance level of 1.1008 and moving towards our next resistance area of 1.1046 – 1.1070, while the nearest support level is at the broken resistance at 1.1008 and 1.0969. EURUSD is currently trading above its 100-day SMA, trying to move above 50-days SMA but below its 200-day SMA.

below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs on the four-hour chart.

Resistance: 1.1046-1.1070

Support: 1.1008, 1.0969

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

XAUUSD broke our 61.8 Fibonacci level at $1953 per ounce and chasing higher with the uncertainty of global geopolitical conditions. Our next resistance will be at $1974 and $2000 per ounce. Meanwhile, our support levels will be at $1948 and $1921 per ounce. XAUUSD is currently trading above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs on the four-hour chart.

Resistance: $1974, $2000

Support: $1948, $1921

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On Wednesday, US stock markets finished down as tensions between Russia and Ukraine remained unchanged, and US President Joe Biden was en route to Brussels for the NATO and G7 summits, highlighting the possibility of NATO forces being increased surrounding Ukraine. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 1.32 percent lower, the S&P 500 finished 1.24 percent lower, and the Nasdaq Composite finished 1.30 percent lower.

Since Russia’s initial strike on Ukraine in February, over 140,000 NATO troops have been deployed, 100,000 of which are US forces. Troops are dispersed throughout Ukraine’s neighboring nations, including Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. At least 140 warships and 130 aircraft are stationed in this alliance, ready to battle if a NATO country is attacked or if Russia begins to utilize biological or chemical weapons. This situation will most probably result in a conflict that escalates in Eastern Europe, having a direct effect on Europe’s and the United States’ capital markets.

With the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifying, it will exacerbate future disruptions in the supply of energy and raw materials, causing global inflation to continue to rise and persist for an extended period. A recession indicator appeared in the form of the 10-year US bond yields passing the two-year yield. This condition very likely implies that long-term economic growth will be riskier and that the local and global economies would stagnate, posing a threat to the global economy.

World gold prices began to gradually edge out of the bearish zone and exhibit turnaround characteristics. The current rising in international gold prices is a result of the deteriorating situation in the Ukraine-Russia war, which has lasted more than a month.

It is worth noting that Russia began a military campaign against Ukraine on February 24 and there has been no sign of peace between the two nations in the month afterward. The most recent development in the Ukraine-Russia confrontation is NATO’s backing for Ukraine by stationing extra troops on its border. This, of course, has the potential to re-ignite tensions between the two belligerent nations.

On the other side of the COVID-19 pandemic, a new virus strain, Omicron Subvariant BA.2, has been claimed to have infected over 250,000 people in Germany in just one day last week. This exacerbates the pandemic situation and creates an opportunity for safe-haven assets such as gold to strengthen once more this week.

Main Pairs Movement

On Wednesday, WTI gained moreover 5% as Russia threatened to upset the natural gas market.

Gold edged higher on Wednesday, finishing at $1948, owing to the uncertainty surrounding US President Biden’s talks with NATO, as well as the fact that US inflation continued to spiral out of control as the Ukraine issue intensified.

On Wednesday, higher energy costs continued to dominate currency market fluctuations, with the Australian dollar gaining and the yen weakening. The Australian dollar increased to its highest level since December 2015 against the Japanese yen and has gained 8% so far in March.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Cable has broken over our previously anticipated resistance level of 1.3209 on the technical side, although upward momentum appears to be waning and back below the resistance level. Cable is currently trading above its 50-day and 100-day SMAs but below its 200-day SMA on the four-hour chart.

Resistance: 1.3209

Support: 1.3125

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On a technical level, the EURUSD has successfully defended our previously anticipated resistance level at 1.1008, while the nearest support level is at 1.0969 (50% Fibonacci levels). EURUSD is currently trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs on the four-hour chart.

Resistance: 1.1008, 1.1046

Support: 1.0969

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On a technical level, our previously anticipated resistance level of $1953 per ounce remains untested. On the other hand, the XAUUSD’s near-term support has been tested and the price bounces back from the $1921 per ounce level. XAUUSD is currently trading below its 100-day SMA but above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on the four-hour chart.

Resistance: 1953

Support: 1921

On Monday, the US stock market moved marginally lower following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s warning about increasing inflation and the possibility of a half-point rate hike in May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 0.58 percent lower, while the S&P 500 was practically flat, down 0.04 percent. The Nasdaq Composite finished the day down 0.4 percent.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell underlined on Monday that the Fed will continue to fight the rate of inflation in the United States. Powell will not alter his liquidity withdrawal approach, despite market participants’ doubts that rapid interest rate hikes will result in a halt in US GDP. Powell’s assertiveness repressed the US stock market, resulting in another 0.6 percent decline in the Dow Jones index.

The decrease in Wall Street’s capital market is, of course, plagued by the Fed’s determination to hike interest rates six times this year and the Fed’s balance sheet reduction, which now stands at $9 trillion US Dollars. The hike in interest rates and the subsequent shrinkage of the Fed’s balance sheet, which will begin at the Fed’s May 4 meeting, undoubtedly signals that Powell will drain liquidity aggressively in the future, resulting in a deterioration of the US capital market.

Additionally, the accident of a Boeing 737 owned by China Eastern Airlines in the Chinese highlands weighed on Boeing’s shares, adding to the market’s woes yesterday. Boeing stock dropped as much as 3.5 percent, according to reports.

The XAUUSD pair’s negative movement may continue this week, owing to the US Dollar currency index’s ongoing gain following last week’s FOMC meeting. The Fed’s program of raising interest rates from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent was the primary driver in the market’s decision to hold the US Dollar. The US central bank is expected to hike interest rates at least three times this year, but it is conceivable for the Fed to raise rates more depending on the direction of US inflation, which is presently at 7.9 percent. The US central bank’s policies continued to strengthen the US dollar and reduce global gold prices this week.

Main Pairs Movement

The Japanese yen fell to a six-year low versus the US dollar in response to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy. USDJPY closed 0.27 percent higher at 119.47 on Monday. Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan maintained its easing stance, maintaining its interest rates and asset purchase program constant.

WTI gained more than 7% on Monday as the EU considered penalties against Russia’s oil industry following an attack on Saudi Arabian infrastructure by Houthi rebels who professed support for Russia’s invasion. The EU has begun discussing joining the US in an oil embargo because of the move.

Gold edged higher on Monday, settling at $1936 because of the uncertainty surrounding the US President Biden-NATO discussions. Meanwhile, the market has moved its emphasis to the Russia-Ukraine war. Separately, gold gained some momentum following word that the anticipated call between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping failed to produce any significant results.

EURUSD fell 0.32 percent, to 1.10152, to begin the week, as the US dollar strengthened in response to Jerome Powell’s aggressive tone.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Cable began the week with a gain as demand for the dollar continues to wane. The Bank of England’s most recent interest rate boost provided an adequate upward impetus for the British Pound. The UK’s CPI and PMI statistics are slated for publication on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively; the US’ initial jobless claims and core durable goods data are scheduled for release on Thursday.

Cable has broken over our previously anticipated resistance level of 1.3185 on the technical side, although upward momentum appears to be waning. Cable is currently trading above its 50-day SMA but below its 100- and 200-day SMAs on the four-hour chart.

Resistance: 1.3208

Support: 1.3100, 1.3000

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The euro-dollar pair has maintained the higher price trend we predicted. However, with no end in sight to the Ukraine-Russia war and no sign of progress in the most recent peace talks, market investors should be cautious of probable short-term trend reversals. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated during his scheduled address during the US session that inflation was running faster than expected and that the central bank would not rule out a 50-basis point rate hike.

On a technical level, the EURUSD has successfully defended our previously anticipated support level at 1.0893, while the immediate resistance level at 1.1127 remains untested. As of this writing, the pair’s RSI stands at 40.07. EURUSD is currently trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs on the four-hour chart.

Resistance: 1.1008, 1.1067

Support: 1.0930

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold began the week trading higher relative to the previous week’s closing. With the Kremlin and Kyiv refusing to back down, market participants will continue to monitor the growing scenario while using gold as a hedge against geopolitical tensions. Recent interest rate hikes by central banks throughout the world have also aided the precious metals boom. Recently, the Russian army used hypersonic weapons capable of carrying nuclear warheads to demolish tactical positions. This move has alerted worldwide defense ministries, as such weapons have not been used since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia war.

On a technical level, our previously anticipated support level of $1918 per ounce remains in place. On the other hand, the XAUUSD’s near-term resistance barrier has established near the $1940 per ounce price level. XAUUSD is currently trading below its 50-day and 100-day SMAs but above its 200-day SMAs on the four-hour chart.

Resistance: 1953

Support: 1921

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The trading sessions of some products on MT4/MT5 will be changed as follows.
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The US equities declined on Friday, notching the fifth straight week of losses as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues. The three major indices went positive during the European trading session following the comment from Russian President Putin, saying that the talks occurred to be positive; however, indices ended with negative as a ceasefire had not been negotiated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.69% while the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.2%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.3%, dropping 12% from its peak and declining 9% since the headline of Russia and Ukraine.

Following the restriction of importing Russian energies imposed by the US, Britain, Germany, and France warned Russia over the weekend that an almost- completed nuclear deal with Iran could potentially collapse on Russian demands of oils. If the agreement can be reached, then it could help to offset a disruption to supplies from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The US Federal Reserve’s first interest rates hike is expected to be announced this week while the uncertainty over Ukraine’s crisis continues to hang. In the meanwhile, the Fed also should reveal new forecasts for the US economy. Besides the FOMC interest rates decision, there are also a few economic reports coming this week, including Producer Price Index, retail sales, and existing home sales.

Main Pairs Movement

Gold stayed deep below $2,000, trading at $1,988 on Friday with the 10 year Treasury bond yield gaining nearly 2%. Gold price is on the defensive side following the ECB’s hawkish stance; at the same time, the Fed is expected to embark on its tightening policy despite Ukraine’s crisis.

EURUSD was down 0.66%, trading at 1.09107. The markets weighed the US dollar over the eurodollar despite the ECB showing its hawkish action. The ECB is expected to wait until Q1 2023 to raise the rates, but by then, the Fed will possibly have already raised by 25 bps.

AUDUSD retreated from weekly tops on Friday, trading around 0.72896. The Australian dollar failed to gain traction amid the positive market mood. For mostly the same reason, the US dollar was more preferable from the markets’ perspective as the markets were expecting the Fed to raise the rates.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

The British Pound met further selling pressure after a turbulent early trading session. The British National Statistics revealed a better than expected economic growth rate of 0.8%. Despite a positive economic outlook, the Pound fared worse against the Dollar as market participants continue to demand the Greenback over any other currency. The benchmark U.S. 10 year treasury yield topped 2% once again as market participants rotate into U.S. equities.

On the technical side, Cable is attempting to regain support at the 1.3096 price level, but this support level could soon turn into a resistance level should Cable fail to consolidate around this price point. At the time of writing, RSI for Cable is at 32.7. Cable is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 1.3185
Support: 1.2998, 1.2876 

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Despite a shift in tone from the ECB, EURUSD still faced strong selling pressure as trading began on the 12th. With ECB president Christine Lagarde reiterating that the central bank would not begin hiking interest rates any time soon, market participants sold off the Euro. The Dollar was buoyed by the rising short-term treasury yield and a reviving equities market.

On the technical side, EURUSD continues to fall from the previous day’s close. The support level at 1.0839 remains firm. On the 4 hour chart, a new short-term support level seems to have formed at around the 1.0893 price region. RSI for EURUSD is at 43.5, as of writing. EURUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 1.1127
Support: 1.0893, 1.0845

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold faced fresh selling pressure as the U.K. trading session began. The precious metal dropped as low as $1958 per ounce during the day, but it met strong buying as the U.S. trading session began. As of writing, Gold is trading at $1983 per ounce. With global countries mounting sanctions on Russia, market participants will continue to closely observe Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response.

On the technical side, XAUUSD’s previous support level at $2000 per ounce seems to have disappeared and is now transformed into a solid resistance level. RSI for the precious metal currently sits at 49.09. XAUUSD is trading above its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 2000
Support: 1961, 1918

Economic Data

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