US and EU equity markets closed lower after the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine failed to provide a specific outcome, thus making investors concerned. Moreover, the US CPI for February rose 7.9%, the highest since 1982. The Dow Jones dipped 112.18 points and the S&P 500 slid 0.4%; the Nasdaq Composite declined 1%. In Europe, DAX 40 shed nearly 3% at the end of the day.

Markets seemed to move inversely and tie closely to the conflict and energy prices since late February. The equity markets slid hard in response to the surging prices of crude oil; the crude oils have risen more than 15% since then. Oil prices have cooled off in the past two days, that was the time when equity markets bounced back a bit.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JP Morgan Chase& Co both have announced they are going to unwind businesses with Russia, becoming the first two major banks to exit Russia. It will become difficult to operate in Russia for Western financial institutions due to the wild sanctions against Russia. At the moment, European banks have not yet declared their decisions as they are the most highly exposed to Russia compared with US banks; however, US banks still have significant exposure, approximately 14.7 billion.

Main Pairs Movement

Gold climbed slightly, but still traded below $2,000 on Thursday. Gold was up as high as $2,009, then it ended up with $1,996 as the European Central Bank announced that it is moving ahead with plans to end its bond-buying programs amid rising inflation.

EURUSD witnessed a volatile day in the red, trading in the 1.0990 price zone. The eurodollar was once up 140 pips but later lost traction after the US reported the February CPI, hitting a multi-decade high of 7.9%. The markets had put speculative interest on the US dollar on an even more aggressive US Fed.

WTI crude oil prices renewed intraday low, trading below $110 per barrel, as Saudi Arabia tamed oil production fears. At the same time, UAE is looking to push for larger output increases from OPEC+ and Iraq is also ready to produce more.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

After a sharp shift in risk sentiment from the previous day, market participants have resumed cautious trading ahead of another round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The dollar gained back some ground after the Dollar Index dropped more than 1% from the previous trading day. On the economic docket, the UK is due to release its GDP figures and manufacturing production numbers.

On the technical side, Cable was stopped at our projected resistance level at 1.3185. The support level at 1.3096 holds firm. RSI for Cable sits at 39.99, as of writing. Cable is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 1.3185
Support: 1.2998, 1.2876

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The ECB did not change much on its monetary policy, but the central bank did reiterate its firm stance on ending the asset purchase program by the end of March. The ECB has also noted that while it has refrained from raising interest rates any time soon, shall the central bank’s 2% inflation target become unattainable the central bank would consider all possible measures. A strong recovery from U.S. equity markets and rising U.S. treasury bond yields have buoyed the Dollar across the board.

On the technical side, the resistance level at 1.1127 still stands firm and support levels remain unchanged. RSI for the pair sits at 51.31, as of writing. EURUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 1.1127
Support: 1.0839, 1.0766
 

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold continues to face selling pressure after dropping more than $60 per ounce over the previous trading day; however, market participants seem to have rotated bank into safe-haven assets as Gold recovered from its intraday low. As of writing, XAUUSD is consolidating around the $2000 per ounce price region. A new round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine is set to begin soon, market participants will be closely observing the results that come out of these talks.

On the technical side, the support level at $2000 seems to be weakened but is still holding, while the resistance level at $2052 stands firm. RSI for XAUUSD sits at 52.5, as of writing. XAUUSD is currently trading above its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 2052
Support: 2000, 1982

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

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Dear Client,

With Standard time commencing in the US on March 14th. Please consider below carefully:

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Volatility continued to grip global markets as markets reaccessed the headline news related to the war in Ukraine. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.56%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.28%. The S&P 500 finished 0.72% lower, dropping further in a technical correction. Notably, the S&P 500 lurched lower in the last hour of the trading session saw the benchmark gain almost 2% and plunged as much as 1%. The US equities seemed to be a cauldron of opposing bets linked to the war in Ukraine. The markets fluctuated, often touched off by erroneous or stale headlines, resulting in a rush to buy and sell from investors in order to keep their books neutral.

The European Union announced on Tuesday it will reduce its import of Russian gas by two-thirds before the end of the year. The EU imported more than 45% of its total natural gas from Russia in 2021; thus the EU’new plan, REPowerEU, will focus on ramping up renewable and high efficiencies energy sources. At the same time, the EU tries to decrease its dependence on Russia.

The price of nickel surged more than double, over $100,000 per ton, on Tuesday as investors accessed the reality that Russia, a major supplier of the metal, is now facing extensive sanctions from major countries. Because of the unprecedented price movement of nickel, the LME decided to suspend nickel trading on Tuesday morning. The surge in nickel’s price might potentially threaten EV automakers as nickel is a critical ingredient in the lithium-ion battery.

Main Pairs Movement

Gold surged to $2,050 per ounce, up 2% on Tuesday, as risk sentiment ebbs and flows surrounding the topic of Ukraine’s war. Regardless of the upcoming interest rate hikes schedule, gold seemed to continue finding the dip-buying demand as the war in Ukraine is far from over.

AUDUSD witnessed some pullback toward 0.7245 after a stalwart rally in March. At the same time, during the speech from RBA’s Lowe, he mentioned that the rate is plausible to increase later this week, but the RBA needs to take its time to assess incoming data before making the decision.

EURUSD bulls move in to stop the 5 consecutive day losses as risk sentiment rallies. EURUSD traded at 1.08955 at the end of the time, up 0.39% on Tuesday. The rallies came in when the market latched onto hopes of a breakthrough in the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine as well as an interview between Ukraine’s president and ABC news.
Technical Analysis:

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable traded slightly lower as market participants continue to monitor the evolving crisis in Eastern Europe. Britain announced at 16:00 GMT that it would ban Russian oil imports in phases. With soaring energy prices, this move could put further price pressure on British citizens and perhaps provoke the ECB to hike rates further in order to control inflation. As of writing, the E U.S. has also announced plans to ban Russia’s oil imports.

On the technical side, Cable has defended the support level at 1.3096; however, on the four-hour chart, Cable seems to be trending further down and the support level seems relatively weak. RSI for Cable is currently sitting at 26.4, dipping into the under-bought territory. GBPUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 1.3185
Support: 1.2998, 1.2876
 

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The European Union announced its Q4 GDP, which was in line with analyst estimates of 0.3%, quarter over quarter; furthermore, employment change was also in line with predictions. The shared currency traded slightly higher against the Dollar, but EURUSD is still unable to break through the resistance at 1.0946. The E.U., which is heavily dependent on energy imports from Russia, is still divided on how it would proceed with oil sanction and the potential spillover effects it would have on the overall EU economy.

On the technical side, the support level at 1.0839 holds firm for EURUSD. The 1.0946 resistance level still stands unchallenged. RSI for the pair sits at 38.87, as of writing. EURUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 1.0946, 1.1127
Support: 1.0839, 1.0766
 

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold pierced higher as tensions continue to escalate between Ukraine and Russia; furthermore, with global sanctions ramping up, market participants have fled to Gold for safety. Gold briefly touched $2069 during the opening hours of the U.S. market. The Dollar and Gold both spiked as Western nations begin sanctions on Russian oil.

On the technical side, XAUUSD has reached a region of no resistance. The historical high of XAUUSD stands at $2070.435, which is in arms reach from recent prices. RSI for XAUUSD is currently at 77.13. XAUUSD is trading well above its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 2070
Support: 2000, 1982

Economic Data

World equities again slid hard on Monday, following four consecutive weeks of declines as markets grew increasingly worried about higher energy prices and the Russia- Ukraine tension. The Dow Jones Industrial plunged more than 2% while the S&P 500 lost 3%, the worst day since October 2020. In the meantime, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.6% at the end of the day, officially heading into the bear market territory.

The market continued to monitor the development of the geopolitical tension in Ukraine. The negotiation seemed to have no evidence of improvements on its ceasefire as Ukraine said Moscow was seeking to manipulate by only allowing civilians to evacuate to Belarus and Russia.

Energy price shock eased a bit as Germany allayed fears of the imminent Russian embargo. According to the Wall Street Journal, Germany won’t boycott Russia’s energy despite the war in Ukraine. Germany and perhaps other European countries are too dependent on Russian energy imports; at the same time, Germany is the world’s largest buyer of Russian natural gas.

Main Pairs Movement

The bullion remains bullish, trading slightly below $2,000, on Monday following the consideration of banning Russian oil and the existing war in Ukraine. As the war in Ukraine, intensifies and the oil prices soar nearly double, the markets take shelter in the traditional safe-haven gold.

The US dollar index continues to edge higher above the 99 benchmarks. As one of the safe-haven, the US dollar become a shelter for most investors in response to fighting against inflation, interest rate expectation, and uncertainty in Ukraine.

GBPUSD stays on the back foot at 16- month low, trading at 1.31142 at the time of writing. Reflecting the broad-based dollar strength, the British Pound is comparably weaker against the US dollar due to the safe-haven effect. The further price movement of the currency pairs eyes on the US CPI report later this week.

West Texas Intermediate oversteps $120 per barrel amid the potential ban on the imports of Russian oil and natural gas imposed by the US and the EU. The talk between Iran and the US will also become the main driver for the price movement of the oil price.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

The British Pound started the week trading even lower as the seemingly unending conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to loom over markets. Market participants fled to safe-haven assets at market open, thus boosting the Dollar despite lowering U.S. treasury yields. Prime Minister Borris Johnson has expressed his intent on further economic pressures on Russia; however, as leading Western Nations consider the ban on Russian oil, the ECB will face an extremely difficult question of soaring energy costs.

On the technical side, Cable has fallen through a multi-year support level at 1.3185. The next immediate level of support for Cable will sit at 1.2998, which formed 2 years prior during late 2020. RSI for the pair has dropped to the oversold territory at 25.3, at the time of writing. Cable is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 1.3185
Support: 1.2998, 1.2876

 
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The Euro started the week trading slightly higher against the Dollar despite a soaring Dollar. The recovery mounted by the shared currency seems weak, however. With a weak economic outlook coming from European investors and a dovish ECB, the Euro will continue to be relatively unattractive for market participants. On the economic docket, the ECB is due to release its monetary policy decision on Thursday.

On the technical side, EURUSD has respected the level we previously estimated support level at 1.0839. Further down support for the pair sits at 1.0766. RSI for EURUSD remains weak and is at 31.24, at the time of writing. EURUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 1.0946, 1.1127
Support: 1.0839, 1.0766

 
XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold jumped at the start of trading for the new week and continued to trade higher throughout the first half of the new trading week. XAUUSD broke the psychological barrier of $2000 twice, amid tensions over Russia and Ukraine. XAUUSD has shown no signs of slowing down as global investors continue to hedge geopolitical risks with the precious metal; furthermore, a stronger Dollar has failed to slow down the surge of Gold.

On the technical side, the $2000 price level has become the new resistance level, while $1959 seems to form as the new support level. RSI is at 65.64, as of writing. XAUUSD is trading well above its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 1975, 2000
Support: 1920, 1900, 1885

Economic Data:

Equities fell on Friday despite a better-than-expected jobs report as a worrying development in Ukraine weighed on the risk sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.53% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.79%; the Nasdaq 100 fell the hardest, moving down 1.66% on Friday. Moreover, the US economy notably added 678,000 jobs last month, above the 440,000 expected. The jobs report would be the last one before the Fed’s meeting where it is expected to start raising the interest rates.

The third round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will take place early this week. From the last negotiation, both sides have agreed to establish corridors for civilians; despite the agreement, Russia declared that it would press its military action until it completely achieve its goal, the demilitarization of Ukraine.

Oil prices are set to continuously surge further due to delays to the conclusion of Iranian nuclear talks and the original topic from Russian supply disruptions. According to Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, oil price could possibly rise to $125, and even to $147.

Main Pairs Movement:

Gold embraced a positive note as the escalation of Russia and Ukraine continues. The tension intensified after Russia’s leader Putin ordered to execute Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. Gold closed with $1970.840, the highest level since 2020. Further price action eyes on US inflation report.

WTI rose further toward $114.95 per barrel as Russia supply concerns persisted. Oil prices look to surge further due to the delays in Iranian talks.

EURUSD headed further south, trading at 1.09262 on Friday following the Nonfarm Payrolls that boosted the US dollar towards as high as 98.6320.

The US dollar index continued to head further north following the unbeaten jobs report. With firm economic data and the fundamental crisis in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has boosted the US dollar to a fresh weekly high of 98.6320.

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable continued its downside traction in a busy Nonfarm Payrolls week, plummeting to the lowest level in three months below mid-1.3200s. Risk-off sentiments are still the main topic in the recent market, as the Russian invasion in Ukraine failed to subside despite two rounds of ‘peace talks’. Emerging stagflation risks amid soaring commodity prices will likely keep Sterlings unattractive in a relatively light week ahead, as investors remain on edge due to the ongoing Ukraine crisis.

On the technical front, the cable is still capped by the mid-to-long term downtrend from August 2021. The pair at the moment traded below all its major moving averages (20,50 and 200 SMA), and both the RSI indicator and MACD histogram show strongly bearish sentiments for the pair. On the downside, the immediate support for the pair locates at 1.3180. On the flip side, the major resistance will appear at 1.3280 in cases the pair rebounded.

Resistance:  1.3280, 1.3400, 1.360

Support: 1.3180, 1.2850

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Euro price has hit a low of 1.0885 – a level not seen since May 2020. Much of the shared currency’s losses can be attributed to the ongoing war at its borders. The Russian war against Ukraine is now moving to the ninth day. Regardless of two rounds of peace talks, Moscow has shelled Europe’s largest nuclear plant, Zaporizhzhia, on Friday. An explosion there could be as much as ten times worse than that in Chernobyl.

As to technical, the euro pair has been in free fall since February. The long-term bearish trend was breached twice this year, but unfortunately, a series of bad news capped the upside momentum and dragged the pair back down below the 1.1000 price level. On the downside, the pair’s last barricade to a thorough collapse sits at 1.0780, and any attempts to recovery will have to challenge the psychological resistance at 1.1000.

Resistance: 1.1000, 1.1200, 1.1400

Support: 1.0780, 1.0640

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold continues to find demand amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Unless there is a negative surprise, investors should continue to price in a hawkish Fed policy outlook. Another leg higher in the US T-bond yields on a strong CPI print could limit the yellow metal’s gains.

The technical picture suggests that XAU/USD remains bullish in the near term, pointing to additional gains towards $1,975. On the upside, $1,975 (February 24 high) aligns as the first hurdle before the precious metal could target the crucial $2,000 level. As long as $1,920 support holds, sellers are likely to remain on the sidelines. Below $1,920, next support is located at $1,900 (psychological level) before $1,885 (20-day SMA).

Resistance: 1975, 2000

Support: 1920, 1900, 1885

Economic Data:

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the best reliability and service to our clients, the trading hours of certain products will be adjusted as follows due to the maintenance

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US equities churned lower on Thursday, led by the tech sector as markets continued to monitor the war and negotiation in Ukraine. In the meantime, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned rates are headed higher despite of the uncertainty in Ukraine. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with 0.29% lower, and the S&P 500 declined 0.53% on Thursday. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.56% at the end of the day.

Western countries continues to impose more sanctions against Russia along with widespread measures against its president and officials. With all of the current sanctions, the Wall Street expects Russia’s GDP is going to contract by 35% in the second quarter of 2022, which is a drastic slowdown comparable to the financial crisis back in 1998.

Russia’s Ukraine invasion could potentially have set in motion an energy market disruption since the major oil crisis in the 1970s. The disruption is approaching as the energy market in already tightly supplied; sanctions by the US and its allies on Russia’s financial system virtually disrupt sales of crude oil. With those, oil price might heads toward another peaks.

Main Pairs Movement:

EURUSD rebounded a bit, but still hitting fresh 22- month lows on Thursday, closing with 1.10659. The euro dollar remained pressured against the US dollar after the release of NFP report. US dollar continued embracing buyers with all the expectations that the Fed’s interest rate hikes. At the same time, as the war in Ukraine continues, markets tend to favor the traditional safe- heaven currency, the US dollar.

AUDUSD witnessed a rally in the first week of March, extending its gain to 0.73336 amid a strong performance by its trade balance.

USDJPY did not change much amid the slightly dovish stance by Jerome Powell’s second speech. USDJPY traded at 115.453 at the end of the day on Thursday. Further price action eye on Friday’s US economic data.

Gold surged  to $1941.29 per ounce in the late US trading session as the second round of the negotiation between Russia and Ukraine has not came up with a result yet.

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The British Pound sank again against the Dollar as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reassures the hawkish stance of the Fed. In his testament, Chairman Powell reassured senators that the Fed will reduce its balance sheet and commit to interest rate hikes in order rein in inflation. The second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine failed to stop Russia’s advance onto Ukraine’s soil. As of writing, Russian troops have entered Kherson, one of Ukraine’s key strategic port.

On the technical side, Cable is still trading above our projected support level at 1.3311 and the pair is expected to stay above this key support level. RSI for the pair sits at 42.82. Currently GBPUSD is trading below its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.

Resistance:  1.3435, 1.35212

Support: 1.331

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The Euro continues to sell off and has dropped to a new multi-month low. The conflict in eastern Europe continues to weigh on the shared currency. Nord Stream 2, a key project that would bring energy costs lower, announced bankruptcy amid global economic sanctions on Russia. The ECB released its latest meeting, which stated a scaling back of accommodative monetary policy; furthermore, the PEPP is projected to end by March. Despite ECB’s expressed interest in scaling back accommodative monetary policies, the shared currency will continue to be unattractive as global central banks engage in direct interest rate adjustments.

On the technical side, EURUSD has, as projected, broken through our estimated support level at 1.11629. Further down support for the pair can be found at 1.1007. RSI for the pair has dripped to 32.2354, as of writing. EURUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.

Resistance: 1.1224, 1.12793

Support: 1.11629

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold traded sideways as no resolute came out of the second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The safe haven asset remains highly in demand as situations are still extremely fluid. As of writing, Russia troops have taken over a key strategic port of Ukraine. The recent volatility of gold seems to have waned, despite escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

On the technical side, a new support level has formed around 1918 for XAUUSD; on the other hand, a new resistance level at 1946 seems to have formed as well. As of writing, RSI for the precious metal sits at a neutral 54.81. XAUUSD is currently trading above its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.

Resistance: 1909.16, 1953.407

Support: 1920, 1900

Economic Data:

Dear Client,

Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please note the specific adjustments as follows:

Note: The above data is for reference only, the actual execution data may be changed, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for details.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].