Following the recent collapse of several American regional banks and the Credit Suisse Group AG crisis, investors have begun to recall memories of the 2008 financial crisis. Speculation is rife that major central banks may need to provide liquidity support to financial regulators. As a result, the S&P 500 initially plummeted by over 2%. However, the decline was subsequently cut in half. Despite the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers and a rebound in US Treasury yields, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped by 22 basis points to 3.47%. Except for the Japanese yen, the dollar rallied against all other developed-market peers.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to make sharp moves, peaking at $26,500, the highest since June 2022, before pulling back to $24,500. Gold and Silver moved sideways, holding onto most of Monday’s gains. This suggests that some investors may have more confidence in cryptocurrency than traditional currency.

In the benchmark, the S&P500 fell by 0.7% due to the banking turmoil rippling through financial markets. Only four out of eleven sectors remained in positive territory. Among all groups, the Communication Service and utility sectors delivered the best performance, surging by 1.5% and 1.34% respectively on a daily basis. The worst-performing sector was Energy, which dropped by 5.42%. USOIL reached its lowest point since 2022, at 68.54.

Main Pairs Movement

On Wednesday, the dollar experienced an upswing due to safe-haven buying. Credit Suisse’s recent stock drop has investors concerned about potential weaknesses in its financial reporting and the possibility of a global banking crisis. The DXY index gained momentum during the European trading session, reaching a daily high of 105.1 at the beginning of the US trading session.

GBPUSD experienced a sell-off after reports of internal “materialistic weaknesses” within Credit Suisse surfaced, causing market sentiment to plummet. The pair slumped during the UK trading hour but managed to find support at the 1.2010 level and rebounded to 1.2070 during the middle of the US trading session. On the other hand, EURUSD dropped significantly with losses of almost 2% during the UK trading hour, and closed the day with a 1.45% loss.

Gold buyers flexed their muscles around $1,920 after reaching the highest levels in 1.5 months following Credit Suisse’s weak financial reporting. The market’s risk profile worsened as the CS episode followed the latest fallout of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. The XAUUSD gained bullish momentum during the UK trading session, climbing above the $1935 mark before losing traction and closing around the $1920 mark.

Credit Suisse’s impact on the market has significantly affected several key currency pairs and gold prices. This event highlights the importance of sound financial reporting and transparency in the banking sector to prevent future crises. It also underscores the need for investors to remain vigilant and informed in their decision-making processes.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EUR/USD pair experienced a significant decline on Wednesday, marking its worst day in months and hitting a two-month low below the 1.0530 mark. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0535, reflecting a daily loss of 1.83%. The negative trend continues due to renewed strength in the US Dollar and concerns about the banking sector. The intraday US Dollar rally of over 1% and banking concerns have had a major impact on the EUR/USD pair. The global risk sentiment also took a hit due to negative news about the Swiss lender Credit Suisse, which triggered a sell-off in banking shares worldwide. Additionally, mixed US economic data added to the dismal mood, with the February Producer Price Index (PPI) rising at an annualized pace of 4.6% and Retail Sales declining 0.4% in February. In the Eurozone, concerns about the European banking sector have heightened, leading to a flight-to-safety mood among market participants.

In terms of technical analysis, the RSI indicator currently stands at 32, indicating strong bearish momentum and the potential for the pair to extend its decline as the RSI is around 30. The Bollinger Bands suggest that the price has undergone heavy selling and has moved out of the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend.

In conclusion, we believe that the market sentiment for the EUR/USD pair will remain bearish, with the pair potentially testing the 1.0531 support level. Traders should remain cautious and keep an eye on any developments in the global banking sector, as well as any economic data releases that could impact the pair’s performance.

Resistance: 1.0624, 1.0745, 1.0791

Support: 1.0531, 1.0467

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold prices have dropped to a new intraday low of around $1,890, and remain stagnant during mid-week inaction while sticking to short-term key support. This is due to the recently widening difference between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields, which is affecting the XAU/USD price. The inability of global policymakers to convince the market of the risks emanating from the latest fallouts of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank is also exerting downside pressure on gold prices. Furthermore, the recent run-up in the Fed fund futures, favoring a 0.25% rate hike in March, has made the US dollar more solid, which has further weighed on gold prices.

Despite this, US data relating to Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Producer Price Index showed that the odds favoring the downtrend have limited upside room for gold trades. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $1,932.

On the technical side, gold has found support above its 200 DMA at $1,775, and further support at the 55 DMA at $1,869. According to strategists at Credit Suisse, a weekly close above $1,890/1900 is needed to clear the way for a retest of $1,973/90. The RSI sits at 75 at the time of typing.

Resistance: 1924, 1947, 1956

Support: 1900, 1885, 1859

Economic Data

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US stocks surged in the closing hours of trading on Tuesday, with traders confident that the worst of the banking turmoil was over. The KBW Bank Index gained 3.2% but remained fragile, with rating companies offering negative remarks on the financial sector.

The S&P500 regained much of the ground lost earlier in the day, with all eleven sectors staying in positive territory. The Communication Service and Information Technology sectors saw the best performance, surging by 2.75% and 2.29% respectively. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 experienced its largest one-day gain in six weeks, rising by 2.3% on Tuesday.

Main Pairs Movement

The US Dollar was largely unchanged on Tuesday after strong consumer price data suggested the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates next week. Fears of turmoil in the banking sector faded, and the DXY hovered in a narrow range from 103.4 to 104.0 for the day. In contrast, the GBPUSD edged lower by 0.21% as traders awaited the UK Finance Minister’s annual budget speech. The EURUSD remained little changed for the day.

Gold slid by 0.51% on Tuesday after snapping a three-day uptrend the previous day. The metal faced a corrective pullback, with the US Dollar tracing upbeat Treasury bond yields to pare the week-start losses ahead of key United States data.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD traded under pressure around $1.0700 at the press time after Tuesday’s US CPI data release. Market participants assessed the inflation data’s implications on the Fed’s monetary policy, with the EURUSD up by 0.86% on the day, trading at $1.0731, with the daily high and low at $1.0748 and $1.0650 respectively. It is essential to follow the US February Retail Sales report on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT and the ECB Monetary Policy Decision Statement on Thursday at 13:15 GMT, as they are critical data points in the short term. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has led the market to anticipate a less aggressive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve.

The daily RSI is at 55 with a neutral stance, while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest daily decline is at 1.0708, and the 61.8% Fibonacci level is at 1.0683.

Resistance: 1.0790, 1.0918, 1.1020

Support: 1.0666, 1.0601, 1.0560

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XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

XAUUSD remains mildly under pressure, as traders struggle to justify mixed catalysts before the US core CPI data during early Tuesday. The metal dropped 0.25% intraday to $1,909 during the first loss-making day in four heading into the European session. Fears from the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapses have recently reversed hawkish expectations from the Fed and challenged the DXY bulls of late.

The daily RSI is at 43 with a bearish stance, while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest daily rise is at 1,903, and the 61.8% Fibonacci level is at 1,897.

Resistance: 1924, 1947, 1956

Support: 1900, 1859, 1850

Economic Data

The US stock market experienced fluctuations on Monday, marked by oscillations between gains and losses. A sudden drop in the yield on the two-year Treasury note was one of the reasons for this. The drop was significant, its largest in decades. On the other hand, tech stocks rebounded from a previous week’s dip after Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. The fallout from the SVB’s collapse led President Joe Biden to promise stronger regulation of US banks and assure depositors of their safety. However, the sudden decline in banks’ stability led to a swift reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, causing swaps traders to price less than a 60% chance that the Fed will hike by another quarter percentage point later this month. The US regional banks’ situation caused trading halts across the sector, with First Republic Bank plunging 62%.

The Nasdaq100 in the benchmark edged up by 0.8%, while the S&P500 closed with a 0.2% loss, leaving only four out of eleven sectors in the negative territory. The day’s financial sector fell sharply, dropping 3.85% amid fears of a bank failure. Furthermore, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, while the MSCI world index dropped 0.4%.

Main Pairs Movement

On Monday, the value of the dollar decreased as investors speculated that the Federal Reserve may slow down or even pause its interest rate hikes to combat inflation. This speculation arose after U.S. authorities took measures to limit the negative impact of Silicon Valley Bank’s sudden collapse. The DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of other currencies, dropped by nearly 0.4% at the start of the week before entering a consolidation phase and closing at around the 103.7 level.

In contrast, the GBPUSD pair experienced a 1.27% daily gain due to the overall weakness of the dollar. During the American trading hours, the pair attempted to surpass the resistance level of 1.2200, but eventually lost momentum and retreated to the 1.2185 level by the end of the day. Similarly, the EURUSD pair gained 0.83% for the day and closed at the 1.073 level. Currently, investors are closely monitoring the CPI report scheduled for release on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, gold continued its bullish momentum and surged by 2.43% on Monday, benefitting from renewed risk aversion among investors. The banking crisis originating in the United States and spreading across the Atlantic has been a key focus of concern. The XAUUSD continued to trend upwards, breaking through the psychological level of $1900 and closing at $1914 by the end of the day.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair made a significant upward move, rebounding and surpassing the 1.0730 level after dropping earlier in the day to the 1.0650 region due to concerns in the banking industry. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0723, marking a daily gain of 0.80%. The EUR/USD continues to perform positively, benefiting from a weakened US dollar, which has been experiencing a recent decrease in US yields not seen in years, leading to the currency’s decline against its main European competitors. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has played a significant role in driving the markets, thereby reducing the likelihood of a 50 basis points rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week and causing US yields to decline sharply. Additionally, mixed results from the February Payrolls, released last Friday, have contributed to bearish pressure on the greenback, providing support to the European currency. This week, the Eurozone will be quite active, with a monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Regarding technical aspects, as of writing, the RSI indicator shows figures of 70, indicating that the bull is in control as the RSI approaches the overbought zone. Furthermore, regarding the Bollinger Bands, the price has recovered and rebounded to the upper band, demonstrating renewed upside momentum, which could signal a continuation of the upward trend. Overall, we predict a bullish market as long as the 1.0685 support line remains intact.

Resistance levels: 1.0790, 1.0918, 1.1020

Support levels: 1.0685, 1.0576, 1.0531

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Due to increased market volatility and rising risks, there has been a surge in demand for safe-haven assets, causing the XAU/USD pair to advance sharply and reach the $1,910 area on Monday, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). As of the time of writing, the price of gold is trading at $1,911, having risen 2.4% on a daily basis. The decrease in expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has led to a sharp drop in US yields, which is considered the primary catalyst for the rise in the price of gold. The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank has triggered concerns about the banking sector, and the odds of a 50 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week have diminished. As for now, the upcoming US February Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday is expected to be critical for monetary expectations. After the SVB collapse, markets are pricing in a softer Fed.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator currently sits at 89, suggesting that the XAU/USD pair is experiencing heavy bullish momentum as the RSI stays well above the overbought zone. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price is moving alongside the upper band, indicating that the upward trend should persist. Therefore, we believe that the market will remain bullish as the pair is heading to test the 1,924 resistance level. A convincing break above that resistance level will lead the price toward the $1,947 mark.

Resistance levels: 1924, 1947, and 1956

Support levels: 1889, 1854, and 1808.

Economic Data

This week, market participants are closely monitoring the release of key economic indicators in the US, including the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and Retail Sales. The Rate Statement from the European Central Bank is also expected to draw significant attention. These highly anticipated releases have the potential to cause significant fluctuations in the markets, providing valuable insights for traders to guide their decisions.

Here are key events to watch out for:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) | US (March 14)

In January 2023, the US witnessed a 0.5% month-on-month rise in consumer prices, the most in three months. 

Analysts anticipate a 0.4% increase in February.

Producer Price Index (PPI) | US (March 15)

Producer prices for final demand in the US increased 0.7% month-on-month in January 2023, the most in seven months.

Analysts expect a 0.3% increase in February.

Retail Sales | US (March 15)

Retail sales in the US unexpectedly jumped 3% month-on-month in January 2023, the biggest increase since March 2021.

For February, analysts expect a 0.2% increase.

Employment Change | Australia (March 16)

Employment in Australia unexpectedly declined by 11,500 to 13.72 million in January 2023. Meanwhile, unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 3.7% in January 2023 from December’s near five-decade low of 3.5%.

For February, analysts estimate that 51,000 jobs will be added, while unemployment rate will be at 3.6%

European Central Bank Rate Statement (March 16)

The ECB raised its interest rate by 50bps to 3% in February 2023.

Markets have fully priced in a 50bps increase this month, with a chance of a similar hike to be delivered in May, after several policymakers backed the idea that rates will have to rise higher and stay higher for some time to bring inflation back to target.

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (March 17)

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment for the US rose to 67 in February 2023, up from the preliminary reading of 66.4, and marking the highest level since January 2022. 

Analysts anticipate that the index for this month will be in the range of 67.5 to 68.

The US stock market experienced its worst week since September. Silicon Valley Bank’s financial troubles sparked concerns about further distress in the banking industry amid the Federal Reserve’s most-aggressive tightening campaign in a generation. Despite reassurances from experts that a systemic financial crisis is unlikely, investors remained anxious, leading to widespread de-risking. The S&P 500 lost 1.45%, erasing most of its 2023 gains, with all eleven sectors falling into negative territory.

The Real Estate and Material sectors were hit hardest, plummeting by 3.25% and 2.15%, respectively. In addition, the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and MSCI world index all suffered losses on Friday. Market anxiety is also high ahead of next week’s consumer price index report.

Main Pairs Movement

On Friday, the US dollar weakened due to slower wage growth in the US labor data for February. This suggests that inflation pressures may ease, leading to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes being modest, and making the dollar less attractive. The DXY index dropped below the 104.20 level before the US trading hour, but then saw a modest recovery to close around the 104.60 level.

Due to the general weakness of the US dollar, the GBPUSD rallied 0.88% daily. The pair reached the daily high of 1.2112 level during the opening of the American trading hour but lost momentum and closed at the 1.2020 level at the end of the day. Meanwhile, the EURUSD gained 0.59% during the day and closed at 1.064.

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Gold prices rose sharply by 2.03% on Friday due to the US dollar selling off after a mixed labor market report and the risk aversion flow triggered by SVB’s turmoil. The XAUUSD continued to move upwards during the late European trading hour to the end of the US trading session, earning around 2% before closing at $1867 on Friday.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair experienced a significant increase in buying, climbing to a daily high above the 1.0670 level as market participants continued to analyze the mixed US jobs report for February. The pair is currently trading at 1.0676, with a daily gain of 0.93%. The EUR/USD remains in positive territory due to renewed US Dollar weakness, with US yields decreasing further after the US jobs report, causing the greenback to lose further ground and break below the key 105.00 barrier. The US Nonfarm Payrolls data for February showed an increase of 311,000, surpassing the market expectation of 205,000 and following January’s print of 504,000. However, the Unemployment Rate also increased to 3.6%, removing optimism from the NFP report. The CME Group FedWatch Tool’s probability of a 50 bps hike at the next policy meeting declined to 40%. In the Eurozone, the focus now shifts to the ECB’s next moves after the bank has already anticipated another 50 bps rate raise at the March event.

In terms of technical analysis, the RSI indicator is at 68, suggesting that the bulls are in control as the RSI rises toward the overbought zone. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price has maintained its upside momentum and moved out of the upper band, indicating that a strong continuation of the upside trend can be expected. In conclusion, the market will likely be bullish as the pair heads towards testing the 1.0685 resistance line.

Resistance: 1.0685, 1.0750, 1.0790

Support: 1.0580, 1.0531

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Friday, the XAU/USD pair climbed above $1,850 as market participants analyzed the mixed US jobs report for February, with gold rising by 1.4% to trade at $1,856. Despite the healthy growth in Nonfarm Payrolls, the increase in the Unemployment Rate led to the 10-year US T-bond yield dropping below 3.8%, contributing to XAU/USD’s gains. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech warning that a 50 basis point hike was possible had initially increased the likelihood of a 50bp hike by the Fed in March to 75%. However, after investors reevaluated the US jobs report, the probability of a 50bp hike declined to 56%.

In terms of technical analysis, the RSI indicator is at 76, which suggests the possibility of short-term corrections as the RSI remains above 70. The price moved out of the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the upward trend should continue. We predict that the market will be slightly bearish as long as the resistance level of $1,856 holds. However, if buyers continue to dominate and exceed the $1,856 level, there is a possibility of an upward move toward the $1,924 level.

Resistance: 1856, 1889, 1924

Support: 1825, 1808

On Thursday, the US equity market took a turn for the worse as concerns grew over trouble in the banking sector and investors braced for Friday’s payrolls report. Weekly jobless claims, released on Thursday, surpassed expectations and marked the first time claims had risen above 200K since early January. Stronger-than-expected figures in Friday’s monthly jobs report could lead to a bigger hike at the March 21-22 Fed meeting, which may adversely impact the global stock market. Additionally, cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, slid significantly as a result of Silvergate’s meltdown.

The S&P 500 benchmark fell to its lowest level since January 19th, with financial companies in the index experiencing a drop of over 4%. The KBW Bank Index, which includes regional lenders, suffered a 7.7% plunge. The banking sector faced increased scrutiny in Washington after Silvergate Capital Corp. collapsed overnight, leading to a record drop in SVB Financial Group’s stock following a sale to mitigate losses. The Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and MSCI world index also experienced declines, with drops of 1.8%, 1.7%, and 1.2% respectively for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar experienced a decline after suffering its largest daily loss in a week. This can be attributed to a sense of caution ahead of upcoming US data and downbeat early signals for NFP, which weighed on the greenback. Throughout Thursday, the DXY index continued to trend downward, ultimately falling by 0.38% for the day.

In contrast, GBPUSD saw a significant uptick, gaining 0.68% in a single day, marking its biggest daily jump in over a week. This rise was fueled by strong momentum amid a weaker US Dollar across the board, as well as anticipation for key statistics from both the UK and the US. Similarly, EURUSD also saw an upward trend, gaining 0.34% on a daily basis.

Gold prices rebounded on Thursday, registering the biggest daily gains of the week at 0.95%. This can be attributed to softer US treasury bond yields, as well as investor caution ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls. During the Thursday trading session, XAUUSD managed to climb from $1812 to $1830.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued to gain momentum, maintaining its recovery trend and holding above the 1.0570 level, with a daily gain of 0.33%. The weaker US Dollar across the board, combined with trader cautiousness ahead of the US Non-farm Payrolls release on Friday, led to a moderate pullback in the greenback and supported the EUR/USD pair. However, the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in worse than the market expectation, indicating a cooling labor market, could limit the downside for the US Dollar as hawkish Fed expectations remain. In the Eurozone, employment-related figures are relevant before the release of the February Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator suggests that the pair is picking up some upside traction, while the Bollinger Bands show the price maintaining its upside momentum, moving toward the moving average. The market is expected to remain bullish as the pair tests the 1.0580 resistance line, with sustained strength above this level potentially leading to additional gains.

Resistance: 1.0580, 1.0685, 1.0790

Support: 1.0531, 1.0508, 1.0461

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Despite positive data on job openings and a strong ADP report on Wednesday, the XAU/USD pair continued to rise, reaching a two-day high above the $1834 mark due to a decrease in US Dollar demand. At the time of writing, the Gold price is trading at $1,830, representing a 0.91% increase on a daily basis. However, the higher-than-expected US Jobless Claims for the week ending March 4 may ease the tightness of the labor market and reduce the pressure on the Federal Reserve. The market will now focus on the closely-watched monthly jobs data from the United States, known as NFP, which is set to release on Friday. A weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report, along with high unemployment claims, may decrease the Federal Reserve’s need to tighten conditions at a faster pace.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator shows a figure of 53, indicating that the upside is more favored as the RSI has turned slightly north within neutral levels. In addition, the price has maintained its upside traction and crossed above the moving average, which suggests that the uptrend should continue. In conclusion, we believe the market will be slightly bullish as the pair heads towards testing the $1,838 resistance level. On the downside, if sellers take control and the price falls below the $1,808 support level, a downside move toward the $1,792 level cannot be ruled out.

Resistance: 1838, 1856, 1889

Support: 1808, 1792, 1776

Economic Data

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On Wednesday, the US equity market experienced volatility despite the reassurance from Fed chief Jerome Powell that the central bank is not seeking to cause a recession and that no decision has been made on the size of a rate increase in March. Powell’s testimony to American lawmakers increased bets that the Federal Reserve will remain hawkish in the coming months, particularly after the release of another round of hot jobs figures. Powell reiterated that officials are likely to raise rates higher than previously anticipated and could move at a faster pace if necessary. Policymakers will closely scrutinize Friday’s jobs report for three key indicators: payrolls, wage gains, and the unemployment rate.

In terms of performance, the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 edged higher on a daily basis with gains of 0.14% and 0.5%, respectively. Seven out of eleven sectors in the S&P500 stayed positive, with the Real Estate sector performing the best with a daily gain of over 1%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, and the MSCI world index edged lower by 0.1% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

On Wednesday, the US dollar remained steady but was down from its three-month highs reached earlier in the day. This followed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony before Congress, which offered no major surprises. Investors are now waiting for Friday’s jobs data. The DXY index traded in a range between 105.4 and 105.8, with a daily low of 105.36 during Powell’s speech.

The GBPUSD edged higher with a 0.13% gain for the day, remaining sideways within a narrow range from 1.8000 to 1.8500. The EURUSD was little changed down as investors also waited for jobs data on Friday.

Gold was little changed up with a 0.02% daily gain, as investors looked for more clues amid concerns about the hawkish Federal Reserve and recession woes. XAUUSD surged above $1820 during the early American trading session but lost bullish momentum and fell back to around the $1814 region.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

According to the 4-hour chart analysis, the EUR/USD pair was little changed on Wednesday, recovering slightly from a two-month low and holding onto modest daily gains above the 1.0540 level. The pair is currently trading at 1.0546, posting a 0.02% loss on a daily basis. The market has priced in Powell’s hawkishness from Tuesday, and the pair stayed in positive territory amid renewed US dollar weakness.

The RSI indicator is currently at 35, suggesting that the downside is more favored as it is stable near the oversold territory. However, the price rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band, indicating some upside movements can be expected. If the 1.0531 support line holds, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. However, a steeper decline could be expected on a break below the 1.0531 level.

The resistance levels for the EUR/USD pair are at 1.0631, 1.0685, and 1.0790, while the support levels are at 1.0531 and 1.0467. The European Central Bank is ready for its monetary policy announcement next week, which could also impact the pair’s movements.

Resistance: 1.0631, 1.0685, 1.0790

Support: 1.0531, 1.0467

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The XAU/USD pair extended its downtrend during Wednesday’s trading session, reaching the lowest since February. The bearish move was not sustained, and the price bounced back slightly to trade around $1814.26 at the time of writing. The daily chart shows a bearish outlook for gold, and the risk remains skewed to the downside.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the bears remain in control as gold trades below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating south between the longer ones. The momentum indicator remains directionless within negative levels, while the RSI indicator resumed its decline after correcting oversold conditions, currently at around 36.

If the bearish pressure continues, the immediate support levels to watch are $1,804, $1,789, and $1,774. On the other hand, a rebound in gold’s price could face resistance at $1,829, $1,841, and $1,858.

In conclusion, the bearish trend in gold remains intact, and a sustained break below the support levels could lead to further downside momentum. However, any rebound in price would face significant resistance levels, and a reversal in the trend would require a significant shift in market sentiment.

Support levels: 1,804, 1,789, 1,774

Resistance levels: 1,829, 1,841, 1,858

Economic Data