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On Wednesday, the US stock market experienced a significant downturn as investors were hit with a double dose of stress. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s remarks on the state of the banking system rattled bank shares, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dashed hopes for rate cuts shortly. This sent the financial sector into a tailspin and weighed on the broader stock indexes.
During her testimony to lawmakers, Yellen stated that the government is not considering providing “blanket” deposit insurance to stabilize the banking system. This sent financial shares plummeting and caused broader stock indexes to suffer as a result. Investors were already on edge due to inflation concerns and rising interest rates, and Yellen’s remarks fueled the fire.
Adding to investors’ concerns, Powell also stated that he is prepared to keep tightening until inflation shows signs of cooling. The market had initially risen as the Fed delivered the expected 25 basis-point hikes and kept its year-end rate projection intact. However, Powell’s comments caused the market to give up its gains and turn negative.
In a broad-based selloff, the S&P 500 erased a rally that had approached 1% and finished the day with a 1.7% slide. All eleven sectors of the S&P 500 stayed in negative territory, indicating a pessimistic market mood. It’s worth noting that all 22 stocks in the KBW Bank Index retreated, with the measure of US financial heavyweights down almost 5%.
Main Pairs Movement
On Wednesday, the US Dollar experienced a significant drop to its lowest level in almost seven weeks after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected. However, a change in the bank’s language indicated a potential policy shift that could lead to the bank reaching its terminal rate sooner than expected. As a result, the DXY index fell by almost 0.8% and closed at a level of 102.54.
The EURUSD pair surged by 0.82% on a daily basis after the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, mentioned that underlying inflation dynamics remain strong and that they have not committed to raising interest rates further or finished hiking. The pair rallied dramatically following the Fed’s interest rate decision and closed at a level of 1.0856 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD pair earned a 0.42% daily gain and closed at a level of 1.2262.
Gold also experienced a significant gain of 1.55% on Wednesday as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments suggested no out-of-the-line support for United States banks, which seemed to weigh on Treasury bond yields and propel the XAU/USD price. The yellow metal surged with a 1.26% daily gain and closed at the $1970 mark for the day.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise for the fifth consecutive session, nearing the 1.0800 area prior to the US session and posting a daily gain of 0.18%. This rise was mainly due to the weaker US Dollar, as US Treasury bond yields experienced a sharp decline. The markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce a 0.25% hike in the Fed Funds Rate to a target range of 4.75%-5.00% during the meeting. However, traders believe that the Fed cannot be as aggressive as it would like to be due to the international banking crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, has pledged to bring down inflation, as there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation is trending downwards.
From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator stands at 80, indicating that the bulls are in control, as the RSI is entering the overbought zone. The price has maintained its upward momentum and moved alongside the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting that the upside trend may continue. Overall, we expect the market to remain bullish as the pair tests the 1.0903 resistance level. However, there may be a downward correction in the near term before the pair climbs higher.
Resistance: 1.0903, 1.0962
Support: 1.0798, 1.0735
XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)
On Wednesday, XAUUSD stabilized around $1,940 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting, while Wall Street’s main indexes struggled for direction due to uncertainty in the banking sector. Traders have lowered their expectations for the interest rate hike to 25 basis points, citing concerns about liquidity in the banking sector and the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening over the past year as reasons for the crisis. At the time of writing, the price of gold is trading at $1,948.70.
From a technical perspective, the 20-period moving average at $1,964 is currently providing support for the market. If this level is breached, we could see further weakness toward the recent range low at $1,933. On the other hand, if gold breaks above the recent retest of $1,985, it could gain further upside momentum to reach above the $2,000 level.
Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, saw its largest two-day plunge since May as the recent financial turmoil eased, resulting in a rebound of stocks. This surge in banks and assurances from authorities has restored a sense of order to the market for the time being. As the Federal Reserve decision approaches, traders are anticipating another 25 basis-point hikes, indicating officials’ commitment to battling inflation and maintaining financial stability. The uncertainty over the Fed’s decision is currently among the highest since the pandemic sparked emergency rate cuts in 2020. Policymakers are also expected to provide updated rate projections for the first time since December, which will offer guidance on whether additional hikes can be expected this year.
In the benchmark, the S&P 500 topped 4,000 and extended its advance above the key 200-day moving average. The Cboe Volatility Index, which briefly exceeded 30 last week for the first time since October, plummeted to around 21. This led to every stock in a measure of US financial heavyweights climbing, with First Republic Bank surging almost 30% due to optimism over a new plan under discussion to aid the regional lender. Furthermore, seven out of eleven sectors stayed in positive territory, indicating an improvement in market risk sentiment.
For investors, the recent rally in the market and decline in the VIX could signal a return to a more stable investing environment. However, it is important to note that market conditions can change rapidly, and investors should remain vigilant in monitoring their portfolios. As the Fed’s decision approaches, investors should be prepared for potential market volatility. Additionally, it may be wise to consider diversifying portfolios to mitigate potential risks.
Main Pairs Movement
On Tuesday, the dollar pared earlier losses as traders considered the possibility that banking stress could prevent the Federal Reserve and Bank of England from hiking interest rates much further or at all later in the week. The DXY index edged lower with 0.07% daily losses, experiencing some selling during the European trading session before climbing to the 103.2 level in the middle of the American trading hour.
Meanwhile, the GBPUSD dropped with 0.5% losses on a daily basis, marking the first negative day in consecutive four days. Mixed concerns over the Brexit deal’s acceptance and hawkish Fed bets teased sellers, leading to a drop to a daily low of 1.2179 level in early US trading hours, before recovering to the 1.2220 level. In contrast, the EURUSD surged to a level above 1.0780 and closed at 1.077 with a 0.44% daily gain on Tuesday.
However, gold slumped with 1.96% losses on a daily basis, as investors remained anxious ahead of the key Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision. The market mood is fragile, and any incident could trigger wild market reactions. The XAUUSD faced strong corrective pullback pressure for the day, falling to a daily low of the $1935 mark during the middle of the American trading hour.
Investors are keeping a close eye on the Fed’s decision, as it could have a significant impact on market conditions. As always, it is essential for investors to remain vigilant and closely monitor their portfolios to mitigate potential risks.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rose higher, with buyers entering the market ahead of the European session. The pair continued its recent rally, reaching the 1.0780 area, driven by a persistent hawkish narrative from some ECB speakers. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0765, posting a 0.45% gain on a daily basis. The positive sentiment in the financial markets and the weaker US dollar are also contributing to the pair’s rise.
Traders are anticipating that the Fed may cut rates due to the failure of two banks in the United States and another on the brink of default, which has shifted global central banks’ interest rate increase expectations. In the Eurozone, measures to support the global financial system and news that JPMorgan Chase is assisting First Republic Bank have helped the market mood recover, providing support to the shared currency.
From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator currently stands at 65, indicating that the chances favor the bears as the RSI begins to turn south below 70. The price failed to extend its upside traction and retreated from the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that some downside movement may be expected. Overall, the market is expected to be bearish as long as the 1.0790 resistance line holds. However, a break above this resistance could open up the possibility of additional gains.
Resistance: 1.0790, 1.0830
Support: 1.0730, 1.0688
XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The XAUUSD has stopped its upward trend and has started heading south this week due to improvements in risk appetite and rising US Treasury bond yields. At the time of writing, the gold price is trading at a day low of $1,941 and continues to trend downwards. Traders’ fears have calmed in the last 48 hours after the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse, and US banks have continued to try to stabilize First Republic Bank. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin its March monetary policy meeting, with traders anticipating a 25 bps rate hike as Powell and Co. continue their efforts to curb stubbornly high inflation. Another reason for gold’s fall is the rising US Treasury bond yields, with the US 10-year Treasury bond yield up nine bps at 3.58%. The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, a proxy for US Real Yields, stands at 1.351% after tumbling as low as 1.142% on March 16.
From a technical standpoint, the XAUUSD’s daily chart indicates a bullish bias in the yellow metal. However, the price action in the last three days could form an evening star candlestick chart pattern, indicating that gold may drop in the near term. The first support would be the March 15 daily high turned support at $1933, followed by the $1914 barrier. Once cleared, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1892 is next. The RSI sits at 62.
The recent financial turmoil has led to speculation about a slower pace of tightening from major central banks. To shore up market confidence, regulators worldwide have rushed to take action, and global central banks have united with the Federal Reserve to ease access to supplies of the US currency.
Despite the banking turbulence, there has been no dash for dollars, indicating that the financial system may not be experiencing undue stress. Just a few weeks ago, investors were betting on the Fed raising rates to almost 6%, and the European Central Bank hiking past 4%. However, now the markets imply that the tightening cycles are almost over, and there are expectations for four rate cuts in the US by the end of the year. The overnight indexed swaps price in a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike by the Fed this week.
The S&P 500 benchmark saw all 11 groups gaining, and there was a decrease in the earlier flight-to-safety bid. A gauge of US lenders climbed after last week’s 15% rout. Despite missing out on a rebound by its regional peers led by New York Community Bancorp, UBS Group AG rose as investors focused on the upside of its Credit Suisse Group AG takeover.
On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100, which had the biggest weekly surge since November, underperformed as a recovery in risk appetite sent Treasuries slumping.
Main Pairs Movement
On Monday, the US Dollar experienced its third consecutive session of decline, with the DXY index showing strong bearish momentum throughout the day and closing just below 103.3 – the lowest level of the day. This drop is attributed to the rush to add liquidity to the monetary system, which is seen as a clear negative for the dollar and a sign of financial stress.
In contrast, the GBPUSD pair saw a significant gain of 0.86% on Monday, thanks to the overall weakness of the US Dollar. The pair continued to experience strong upside traction and saw fresh transactions during the European trading session. The EURUSD pair also managed to attract some buying interest during the late UK trading hour and gained 0.48% on Monday.
However, Gold prices saw a decline of 0.52% on Monday after reaching a year-high above the $2000 mark. This drop was attributed to investors trying to recover their optimism after concerns about global financial stability were triggered by various banks’ failures. The XAUUSD pair experienced strong pullback pressure, touching the daily low of $1966 during the early American trading session before regaining positive traction and trading around the $1980 mark.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair saw a gain of 0.55%, as it continued to build on last week’s rebound from the 1.0520 mark, with the global risk sentiment turning positive. The weaker US Dollar across the board also contributed to the pair staying in positive territory. The market is now pricing in a smaller lift-off of 25 bps at the end of the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday, due to the recent collapse of two mid-sized US banks.
The focus is now on the FOMC decision on Wednesday. In the Eurozone, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that inflation is projected to remain too high for too long, which acted as a tailwind for the shared currency.
From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator currently stands at 61, suggesting that the chances are on the bulls’ side as the RSI rises toward the overbought zone. The Bollinger Bands also indicate that the price is climbing toward the upper band, suggesting that the upside momentum should persist. Therefore, it is expected that the market will be bullish as the pair heads towards testing the 1.0746 resistance line. Technical indicators also advance well above their midlines, supporting higher highs in the upcoming sessions.
Resistance: 1.0746, 1.0790
Support: 1.0637, 1.0542
XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The XAU/USD pair paused its uptrend on Monday after advancing over 10% since March 8 and reaching the round $2,000 level. The pair retreated to $1,967 during the US trading session and is currently trading at $1,978, posting a 0.50% loss on a daily basis. The bearish pressure on the Gold price was due to the positive turn in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield near 3.5% following a sharp decline seen in the European session. The weekend announcement of UBS Bank’s acquisition of Credit Suisse in a historic $3.3 billion deal temporarily reassured investors and stabilized sentiment. However, the risk of contagion spreading across the broader banking sector still remains, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like Gold.
From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator currently stands at 75, suggesting that the pair could experience some short-term corrections as the RSI retreats from the overbought section. The failure of the price to climb higher and drop from the upper band in the Bollinger Bands also indicates that some downside movements can be expected. Therefore, it is expected that the market will be slightly bearish as long as the 1,996 resistance line holds. The chances of a new bear trend might start if the pair breaks below the 1,956 support.
The US stock market suffered a setback on Friday as investors grew increasingly concerned about the impact of the banking sector’s turmoil on the global economy. However, amidst this tumultuous week for global markets, technology stocks emerged as the beneficiaries of the situation. The Nasdaq 100 rallied by 5.8%, posting its best performance since November, despite a slump on Friday. Investors flocked to old standby favorites in the tech sector, including Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc., as they bet that the Federal Reserve would take a more moderate approach to its tightening path.
Unfortunately, Credit Suisse Group AG further exacerbated the financial sector’s troubles when Reuters reported that at least four central banks, including Deutsche Bank AG, had curtailed trading with the struggling Swiss lender. As a result, the regional bank gauge fell by 15% over the past five days. First, Republic Bank became the latest US lender to signal stress, plummeting by over 70% during the week, despite larger banks providing a lifeline to the regional lender on Thursday.
While the banking sector dragged the S&P 500 index to a 1.1% drop on Friday, the benchmark still managed to carve out a 1.4% weekly gain. Unfortunately, all eleven sectors of the S&P 500 remained in negative territory, with the financial sector posting a 3.37% daily loss and emerging as the worst-performing sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.2%, and the MSCI world index slid by 0.6% for the day.
As investors reassessed rate-hike wagers, the policy-sensitive two-year experienced more than a 20 basis point swing for the seventh straight session. Yields fell across the curve on Friday following a softer-than-expected reading on inflation expectations.
Main Pairs Movement
On Friday, the US Dollar experienced a deeper decline of 0.68%, failing to benefit from the weak market sentiment. The DXY index ended the week with its lowest close in five weeks, with the American trading session witnessing intense selling pressures, causing it to close below the critical level of 103.9.
The EURUSD showed an upward momentum, rallying with a daily gain of 0.57% due to the persistent effects of the ECB’s rate hike policy. The pair drew in fresh transactions at the beginning of the US trading hour, peaking at a daily high of 1.0685 level. Similarly, the GBPUSD also experienced some buying activity during the first half of the NY session, despite the broad weakness of the US Dollar. It concluded the day with a daily gain of 0.53% on Friday.
In contrast, the Gold market saw a substantial increase of 3.63% daily. This was fueled by concerns regarding widespread contagion, leading to a surge in haven flows and consequently benefiting the price of Gold. The XAUUSD continued to show a strong bullish momentum throughout Friday, eventually closing at a daily high of $1988 marks.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rose due to an increase in buying activity and recovered from the low of 1.0615, which it had reached during the European session. The pair is now trading at 1.0647, with a 0.36% daily gain. The US dollar weakened against other currencies, as the expected rate hike of only 25 basis points (bps) in the upcoming FOMC meeting reduced bets on the greenback and dragged US bond yields lower. Positive news regarding the US and European banking sectors helped to reduce concerns over a potential banking crisis, which supported the EUR/USD pair and improved market sentiment. The European Central Bank increased its key rates by 50 bps on Thursday, and a board member suggested that the terminal rate has not been reached yet and there may be more rate hikes in the future.
Regarding technical analysis, the RSI indicator was at 54, suggesting that the pair is gaining upside momentum as it rises above 50. The Bollinger Bands also indicate some upside movement as the price climbed above the moving average, indicating a potential bullish trend. Overall, the market is expected to be bullish, and the pair may test the resistance level of 1.0685. Technical indicators also suggest a bullish trend.
Resistance: 1.0685, 1.0745, 1.0790
Support: 1.0542, 1.0467
XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)
On Friday, the XAU/USD pair surged to its highest level since April, rising above the $1,960 mark as renewed selling around equity markets and global risk-aversion boosted demand for safe-haven assets. At present, the Gold price is trading at $1,961, representing a 2.22% gain daily. The decreasing likelihood of more aggressive policy tightening by the US central bank and falling US bond yields both contributed to bearish pressure on the US Dollar, driving investors towards the precious metal. Investors remain concerned about the global banking crisis and its potential for widespread contagion, which could continue to benefit Gold prices.
From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator currently stands at 74, indicating heavy bullish momentum as the RSI remains above the overbought zone. The price has moved out of the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a strong continuation of the upside trend. Overall, the market is expected to remain bullish as the pair tests the resistance level of $1,956. A sustained strength above this resistance could potentially lead to further gains.
This week, the financial world eagerly anticipates crucial events, including the FOMC meeting and the BoE Rate Statement. Additionally, vital economic data, including CPI and PPI figures, will be published by major economies like Canada and the UK. Keeping a close watch on these indicators can empower traders to make more well-informed decisions.
Here are key events to watch out for:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) | Canada (March 21)
Canada’s CPI increased 0.5% in January 2023 from the previous month.
Analysts anticipate a 0.3% increase in February.
Producer Price Index (PPI) | UK (March 22)
The PPI in the UK fell 0.6% month-on-month in January 2023, the first decline in a year and the biggest drop since January of 2019.
Analysts expect a 0.5% increase in February.
FOMC Rate Statement (March 23)
The Fed raised the target range for Fed funds by 25bps to 4.5%-4.75% in its February 2023 meeting.
Analysts anticipate the Fed will raise another 25bps to 5% at its next meeting.
Swiss National Bank Rate Statement | Switzerland (March 23)
The SNB brought its interest rate out of the negative territory with two rate hikes in September and December 2022, ending the year with a 1% interest rate. The central bank also indicated that future rate hikes may be required to maintain price stability over the medium term.
Analysts predict that SNB will increase interest rates by 50bps to 1.5% at this month’s meeting.
Bank of England (BoE) Rate Statement | UK (March 23)
During its February meeting, the BoE voted 7-2 to raise interest rates by 50bps to 4%.
Analysts predict that the next increase will be at 25bps to 4.25%.
UK and US Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI (March 24)
In February 2023, the UK Services PMI was revised up to 53.5 from 48.7, and the UK Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 49.3 from 47. Meanwhile, the US Services PMI came in at 50.6 during the same period, above January’s 46.8.
Analysts anticipate lower releases of the UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for February, at 48.3 and 50.7, respectively. The US Flash Services is expected to be released lower at 50.1.
On Thursday, US stocks saw a surge in prices following the announcement that a rescue package had been secured for First Republic Bank. This news sparked a rebound in shares of embattled regional lenders, which had previously tumbled more than 60% as investors speculated that the bank could be the next to fail after two high-profile demises touched off the crisis last week.
Regional banks closed higher after the biggest banks in the US agreed to contribute $30 billion in deposits to the First Republic. However, the gauge is still down over 20% this March. Despite this, nine out of eleven sectors of the S&P500 stayed in positive territory, showing that the market’s fear of the bank has been eased. In particular, the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors both rallied with more than 2.5% daily gains, surrounded by strong recovery momentum.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% and the MSCI world index earned 1.3% on Thursday. The S&P500 notched its largest one-day advance since January, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.7% to a one-month high.
European Central Bank Rate Hike and Comments from ECB President
Markets were also digesting a European Central Bank rate hike and comments from the ECB president that inflation is projected to remain too high for too long. The interest rate decision of 50 basis points (bps) rate hike by the ECB has trimmed the Federal Reserve (Fed)-ECB policy divergence.
The US Dollar retreated with a 0.2% daily loss on Thursday, as major Wall Street banks pledged billions to rescue First Republic Bank, boosting the market risk sentiment. The DXY index was hovering in a range from 104.2 to 104.6 during most of Thursday, and the ECB interest rate decision failed to provide directional traction for the greenback.
The EURUSD rallied with a 0.31% daily gain on Thursday, remaining modestly upside during the US trading session and closing around the 1.0610 level. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD also rose with a 0.43% daily gain on Thursday, witnessing fresh transactions ahead of the American trading hour and closing at the 1.2108 level.
Gold Prices Remain Steady
The Gold market was little changed, up for the day due to the broadly weaker United States Treasury bond yield. Investors remained in a cautious mood ahead of next week’s FOMC monetary policy meeting. The XAUUSD witnessed heavy selling pressures during the American trading session, erasing most of the gains of the day and closing at the $1919 mark on Thursday.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The EUR/USD pair experienced a surge on Thursday, recovering from a monthly low of below 1.0530 that was reached the previous day, as market sentiment towards risk improved. The pair is currently trading at 1.0614, with a daily gain of 0.36%. The US dollar has weakened, as investors’ concerns regarding the banking system were somewhat alleviated after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced its plan to lend around $54 billion to Credit Suisse.
In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its expected rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) following the March policy meeting, resulting in a small rally for the Euro. However, the Euro’s strength was limited as ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that financial conditions were closely monitored, and the ECB refrained from signaling future interest rate moves.
From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator currently stands at 45, indicating that the pair has lost its upside momentum as the RSI is turning south below the mid-line. The price failed to maintain its upward momentum and has begun to fall, indicating that some downside movement is possible. Therefore, we believe that the market will remain bearish as long as the 1.0624 resistance line holds. Technical indicators have gained bearish traction within negative levels after correcting overbought conditions.
Resistance: 1.0624, 1.0685, 1.0745
Support: 1.0531, 1.0508, 1.0439
XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The price of gold (XAU/USD) has decreased and is currently trading around $1,918, after failing to surpass the previous high of $1,937. This has been attributed to an improvement in market sentiment, as governments and central banks take steps to ensure the credibility of banks and prevent a severe crisis. The Swiss National Bank and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority have announced that Credit Suisse has met its capital requirements and that liquidity will be provided if necessary, which has brought relief to the market. The European Central Bank has also announced its monetary policy decision, raising interest rates by 50 basis points. President Christine Lagarde has stated that European banks are much stronger than in 2008.
In the short term, the XAU/USD pair has lost some of its bullish momentum, but there are no signs of an imminent decline. In the 4-hour chart, a bullish 20 SMA is providing dynamic support at around $1,910.25 while maintaining its upward slope well above the longer ones. The Momentum indicator is above its 100 level, while the RSI is retreating from overbought readings but remains well into positive territory, currently at 51.
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