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After reaching $4,706, gold retreated as Iran–US deal doubts and strike fears lifted oil, weighing

Gold fell in Monday’s North American session after reaching $4,706, with doubts over a US–Iran agreement and reports of military preparations for possible strikes. XAU/USD was trading at $4,652, as oil rose and the US Dollar firmed. WTI was up 1.40% at $113.64 per barrel, while the US Dollar Index moved back above 100.00 and was down 0.19%. US 10-year Treasury yields were 4.337%.

Geopolitical Risk Drives Cross Asset Volatility

The Wall Street Journal reported US preparations for potential strikes on Iranian energy targets, citing multiple officials. Donald Trump said Iran “can be taken out in one night”, and a deadline was set for April 7 at 8:00 PM ET, including demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran rejected ceasefire proposals backed by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey for a 45-day pause. In the US, ISM Services PMI eased to 54 from 56.1, below the 55 forecast, while prices paid rose to 70.7, the highest since October 2022. Nonfarm Payrolls showed 178K jobs added versus 60K expected, after February’s -133K, with a 68K average in the first three months. Unemployment fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, and money markets now expect rates to stay steady all year. Technically, resistance is at $4,700 and the 100-day SMA is $4,639. Below that, levels include $4,600, $4,553 and $4,500, while upside levels include the 20-day SMA at $4,755 and $4,800. We are watching the April 7th deadline for Iran very closely, as any military action could cause extreme market swings. This uncertainty has already pushed the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) up over 35% in the last week, currently sitting near 28. Options premiums are high, suggesting traders are bracing for a major move in either direction. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, through which nearly 21 million barrels of oil pass daily, crude oil is the most direct play on this conflict. WTI futures breaking above $113 suggests the market is pricing in a serious supply disruption. Looking back at the spike in early 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine, we know prices can move much higher if supply is actually taken offline.

Trade Ideas For Oil Gold Dollar And Volatility

Gold is in a tricky spot, caught between its safe-haven appeal and a strengthening U.S. dollar now above the 100 mark on the DXY. While a full-blown conflict could push gold through resistance at $4,700, a surprise de-escalation could see it quickly test the 100-day moving average near $4,639. We see this as an opportunity for strangles, betting on a big move but not the direction. The Federal Reserve’s steady stance, confirmed by last week’s strong jobs report showing a 4.3% unemployment rate, provides a firm floor for the dollar. Money markets are now pricing in zero rate cuts for 2026, which limits gold’s upside unless geopolitical fears completely take over. This makes long dollar positions against other currencies a potentially attractive hedge. Given the situation, we are focusing on derivatives that profit from rising volatility, such as long positions in VIX futures or buying call options on major energy stocks. Bullish oil spreads could also offer a defined-risk way to play for higher crude prices. For gold, purchasing out-of-the-money puts could be a cheap way to hedge against a sudden peace deal that would send bullion lower. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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XAG/USD stays rangebound, pressured by Middle East tensions, technical resistance, and traders’ caution amid mixed US-Iran headlines

Silver (XAG/USD) traded in a narrow range on Monday amid Middle East tensions and mixed reports on attempts to end the US-Iran war. Prices were around $73, with a softer US Dollar offering some support. Gains were limited as higher Oil prices raised inflation concerns and supported expectations of higher US interest rates for longer. Reports from Axios said the US and Iran, with regional mediators, discussed a potential 45-day ceasefire. IRNA later reported that Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal sent via Pakistan and issued a 10-point response. The proposal was said to include calls to end regional conflicts and a plan for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Focus has shifted to a deadline set for Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time by US President Donald Trump. Trump warned of strikes on Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Technically, price has faced repeated rejection near the 100-day SMA and remains well below the 50-day SMA. Resistance sits at $75.84, then $82.35, with a further barrier at $96.62. Support is seen at $70-$68, then $61.01, near the 200-day SMA at $59.24. RSI is 43, while MACD is slightly positive but close to zero. We recall how silver was trapped around $73 last year during the 2025 US-Iran conflict, caught between geopolitical fear and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The market was paralyzed waiting for President Trump’s deadline concerning the Strait of Hormuz. That dynamic has changed entirely as we move through April 2026. Today, silver trades at a much lower $55, a direct result of the Fed holding rates high for most of 2025, which strengthened the dollar and suppressed non-yielding assets. The focus has now shifted from military deadlines to economic data, with the latest CPI report showing inflation moderating to 2.8% and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1%. This has the market pricing in potential rate cuts for the third or fourth quarter of this year. This new environment suggests a different approach to volatility than the one we saw during the 2025 standoff, when implied volatility was extremely high. With the CBOE Silver Volatility Index (VXSLV) now trading at a calmer 25, compared to spikes above 40 during past crises, selling options premium appears more attractive. Strategies like writing cash-secured puts or covered calls could allow traders to collect income while waiting for a clearer trend to emerge. For directional plays, the key levels have shifted downwards, with the former 2025 support zone around $61 now acting as firm resistance. Given the prospect of future rate cuts, we see a more constructive long-term outlook for silver. Traders can use long-dated call options, such as those expiring in January 2027 with a $60 strike price, to position for a gradual recovery without committing large amounts of capital upfront. The main risk is no longer a sudden military event but the timing of the Fed’s pivot. We should therefore use options to manage this economic uncertainty by purchasing protective puts below the significant psychological level of $50. This creates a defined floor for long positions should inflation prove unexpectedly sticky and force the Fed to delay its easing cycle.

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Spot gold steadied near $4,660, slipping from Friday, while markets tracked shifting sentiment amid Iran war headlines

Gold traded around $4,660 on Monday, near $4,650, little changed on the day but below Friday’s close. Trading remained risk-averse as market mood shifted with Iran war headlines. US President Donald Trump repeated that Tuesday’s deadline is final, and said Iran’s latest proposal is not “good enough”. A quick end to the Middle East crisis was viewed as unlikely.

Market Risk Sentiment

The US dollar gained in the risk-off mood, briefly easing after US data. The ISM March Services PMI fell to 54 from 56.1, below the 55 forecast. Within the report, the Prices Paid Index rose to 70.7 from 63. The Employment Index dropped to 45.2 from 51.8. Gold stayed under selling pressure after moving away from $4,780 and holding below the 20-period SMA near $4,686. The 100- and 200-period SMAs sat near $4,673 and $4,916, while Momentum turned negative and RSI drifted towards 50. On the daily chart, price moved below the 20-day SMA near $4,755 and RSI sat just under 45. Resistance levels were $4,686, $4,787 and $4,820, while support was $4,610, $4,580 and $4,550.

Strategy Considerations

We are seeing Gold hold around the $4,660 level, but the mood is tense because of the ongoing Middle East crisis. This risk-off sentiment is benefiting the US Dollar, putting a cap on any significant Gold rally for now. This suggests a cautious, and potentially bearish, stance is warranted in the immediate term. The latest economic data from March paints a complex picture, adding to the uncertainty for traders. We just saw the ISM Services PMI employment component drop sharply to 45.2, a significant slowdown compared to the average of 50.5 we saw throughout much of 2025. At the same time, the prices paid index jumped to 70.7, indicating inflation is becoming a bigger problem again. This combination of slowing activity and rising prices suggests downside risks for gold in the coming weeks. Buying put options with strike prices near the $4,600 or $4,550 support levels could be a prudent way to position for a potential slide. This strategy offers a defined risk if gold unexpectedly rallies on a new headline. For those of us who believe the upside is limited but are not expecting a major crash, selling call options could be effective. We see significant resistance near the $4,780 level, making strikes above this area, perhaps around $4,800, attractive for collecting premium. This approach benefits from both a drop in price and time decay if gold remains range-bound. A more direct approach involves shorting gold futures contracts, but this carries higher risk due to leverage. Given the daily price swings driven by geopolitical news, any short futures position requires disciplined stop-loss orders. We would place stops above the recent highs near $4,790 to manage the risk of a sudden sentiment reversal. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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XAG/USD remains rangebound, pressured by Middle East tensions and technical resistance, as traders avoid bold positions

Silver (XAG/USD) traded in a tight range on Monday as Middle East tensions continued, while traders avoided strong bets amid mixed reports on efforts to end the US-Iran war. It was near $73, with a softer US Dollar limiting losses. Gains were limited as higher Oil prices raised inflation worries and supported expectations of higher US interest rates for longer. Markets weighed shifting headlines on diplomacy.

Ceasefire Talks And Headline Risk

Axios reported talks involving the US and Iran, with regional mediators, about a possible 45-day ceasefire. IRNA later said Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal sent via Pakistan and issued a 10-point response. The proposal was reported to include demands to end conflicts in the region and set terms for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Focus has moved to a deadline set for Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, with warnings of strikes if the strait is not reopened. Technically, price has been rejected near the 100-day SMA and remains below the 50-day SMA. Resistance sits at $75.84, then $82.35, and the February swing high at $96.62. Support is seen at $70-$68, then $61.01, near the 200-day SMA at $59.24. RSI is 43, while MACD is slightly positive but near zero.

Options Strategies For A Volatile Backdrop

We are seeing silver trade sideways around $38 an ounce as traders assess the current geopolitical climate. Market hesitation stems from escalating maritime tensions in the South China Sea, creating a sense of indecision. This feels very similar to what we experienced this time last year. Looking back at this period in 2025, we recall a similar tight range when silver was pinned near $73. The market was whipsawed by conflicting headlines over the US-Iran war and a potential ceasefire. That experience taught us how quickly sentiment can turn on a single news report. Given the uncertainty, we believe establishing long straddles or strangles on silver futures is a prudent approach for the coming weeks. This strategy profits from a significant price move in either direction, which seems likely given the fragile situation. The Precious Metals Volatility Index (PMVIX) supports this view, having climbed 15% to 32.5 in the last two weeks. For those with a slight bullish bias, a call ratio spread could offer a low-cost way to position for an upside break. We have seen call option open interest on the May silver contracts with a $40 strike jump by 25% this past week, indicating an upside hedge. This allows traders to capitalize on a sudden de-escalation or a flight-to-safety rally. We must not ignore the downside risk, as the stalemate could easily break the other way. The memory of silver testing the $61 level during the 2025 crisis serves as a sharp reminder of how quickly support can vanish. Buying protective puts or using bear put spreads to hedge long positions seems wise, especially as the latest CPI data makes a supportive Fed pivot unlikely. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold holds near $4,660 as sentiment shifts with Iran war headlines, leaving bears increasingly in control

Gold traded near $4,660 on Monday, with the current price at $4,650. It was little changed on the day but below Friday’s close, as markets stayed cautious over Iran-related headlines. The United States maintained a Tuesday deadline, with President Donald Trump saying the latest Iran proposal was not “good enough”. The US Dollar gained in the risk-off backdrop, despite a brief dip after economic data.

Macro Data And Market Reaction

The ISM March Services PMI fell to 54 from 56.1 and missed forecasts of 55. The Prices Paid Index rose to 70.7 from 63, while the Employment Index dropped to 45.2 from 51.8. On the 4-hour chart, gold pulled back from the $4,780 area and traded below the 20-period SMA near $4,686. The 100- and 200-period SMAs were near $4,673 and $4,916, and Momentum turned negative as RSI moved towards 50. On the daily chart, price moved below the 20-day SMA near $4,755 and RSI sat just under 45. Resistance levels were $4,686, $4,787 and $4,820, while support was $4,610, $4,580 and $4,550. We remember this time around last year, in early 2025, when gold was hovering around $4,660 amid a crisis in the Middle East and confusing economic signals. That period of uncertainty taught us that geopolitical risk provides a strong floor for gold prices, even when technical indicators look weak. The market is now facing a similar environment of lingering global tensions. That situation was a classic safe-haven play, much like the 10% rally we saw in the fourth quarter of 2023 during another period of intense conflict. The ongoing, albeit different, international disputes continue to fuel demand for hard assets. This suggests that any significant dip in price is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity by long-term investors.

Options And Risk Management

Looking back, the weak ISM Services report from March 2025, with its high inflation component, was a clear signal of the economic crosswinds we still face today. Current data shows the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, remains stubbornly above target at 2.8%. This persistent inflation makes holding a non-yielding asset like gold an attractive hedge against eroding currency values. Given this backdrop, we should consider options strategies that profit from sharp price movements. Buying straddles or strangles on XAU/USD options for the coming weeks could be a prudent move. This allows us to capitalize on a major price swing driven by either an escalation in global conflict or a surprising economic data release. For those with a slight bullish bias due to inflation, selling out-of-the-money puts can generate income while setting a more attractive potential entry price. This strategy pays off if gold stays flat, rises, or only falls modestly. It is a way to get paid for our view that downside is limited by fundamental supports. We must watch the charts closely, as a break below the recent support near $4,600 could signal a deeper correction and challenge our assumptions. On the other hand, a sustained move above the $4,750 resistance level would confirm that buyers are in control. Such a break would likely force us to adjust our positions to capture further upside momentum. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Near 100, the US Dollar Index rebounded amid Iran’s ceasefire refusal and looming inflation-driven volatility ahead

The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved sharply on Monday, dropping from about 100.30 to near 99.75 before recovering to around 100.00. A 200-period moving average on the intraday chart limited the rebound, as a risk-on mood supported equities. A 45-day ceasefire draft put together by Egyptian, Pakistani, and Turkish mediators was rejected by Iran. Tehran said it would only accept a permanent end to the war with guarantees, while WTI oil stayed above $112 per barrel and attention turned to President Trump’s Tuesday deadline linked to the Strait of Hormuz. The ISM Services PMI came in at 54 versus 55 expected, down from 56.1 in February. The Employment Index fell to 45.2 from 51.8, the lowest since December 2023, while the Prices Paid Index rose to 70.7 from 63 and New Orders increased to 60.6 from 58.6. Wednesday brings March FOMC Minutes, followed on Thursday by February PCE, with Core PCE seen at 0.4% MoM and 3% YoY, plus Q4 GDP and jobless claims. Friday’s CPI is forecast at 0.9% MoM versus 0.3% previously, lifting YoY to 3.3% from 2.4%, with Core CPI at 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY; UoM sentiment is seen at 52 from 53.3. On a 5-minute chart, DXY was 100.03 with support at 100.00, then 99.96 and 99.90. Resistance is near 100.03 and 100.10. The US Dollar is currently caught, showing us it has no clear direction around the 100.00 mark. Yesterday’s economic data painted a stagflationary picture, with the employment index falling to its lowest since December 2023 while prices paid surged, complicating the Federal Reserve’s next move. This kind of uncertainty means we should be looking at options strategies that profit from volatility, rather than trying to pick a direction. With Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report being the main event this week, we should prepare for a significant market move. The market expects a massive 0.9% monthly jump, and any surprise could trigger a violent reaction, much like the DXY’s 2% single-day drop after the cooler-than-expected CPI print back in November 2022. We can use derivatives like straddles or strangles on major currency pairs to position for this expected spike in volatility, regardless of the direction. The tension with Iran is the direct cause of elevated oil prices, which are fueling these inflation fears. While the Dollar hasn’t gained a strong safe-haven bid yet, we should watch derivatives on WTI crude oil, as it is the source of the market’s current anxiety. We’ve seen in the past, such as during the 1990 Gulf War, how quickly geopolitical events in the Strait of Hormuz can cause oil prices to more than double in a matter of months. The conflicting economic signals—weakening employment but strong inflation—put the Fed in a very difficult position. This policy uncertainty will be most visible in interest rate derivatives, so we should monitor Fed Funds futures closely for shifts in market expectations. Just as we saw last year, in 2025, the market was forced to aggressively re-price the path of interest rates several times, and this Friday’s data could easily be the catalyst for another one of those major shifts.

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Sterling rises above 1.3240 against the dollar as Iran deadline extension and easing hopes weaken USD

Sterling rose by more than 0.40% on Monday after US President Donald Trump extended Iran’s ultimatum until 7 April. Reports of a possible easing of tensions put pressure on the US Dollar. GBP/USD was trading near 1.3240 at the time of writing. The move came as the Dollar weakened during the session. We remember when geopolitical headlines, such as the extension of an ultimatum to Iran, created sharp but temporary market moves. Back in 2020, that specific event pushed GBP/USD to the 1.3240 level as the US Dollar weakened on de-escalation hopes. Today, on April 7th, 2026, we see the pair trading at a more subdued 1.2715, driven less by headlines and more by economic fundamentals. The core issue for us now is the diverging inflation paths between the UK and the US. With the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing inflation has cooled to 3.8%, the Bank of England has a clearer path to begin cutting interest rates. In contrast, recent US CPI data shows inflation is stickier at 3.2%, pushing back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and keeping the dollar strong. For those of us trading derivatives, this points toward using options to play the potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks. Implied volatility in the pound is currently low, with the GBP VIX index sitting near 7.5, which is below its long-term average. This suggests that options are relatively cheap, creating an opportunity to position for a larger-than-expected move. That memory from 2020 serves as a reminder that low volatility can be deceptive and external shocks can happen at any time. Given the low pricing, we believe buying straddles or strangles ahead of the next Bank of England and Federal Reserve policy meetings is a prudent strategy. This approach allows a trader to profit from a significant move in GBP/USD, regardless of the direction. In the near term, we will be watching the upcoming US retail sales figures and the UK’s next inflation report. A surprise in either of these releases could be the catalyst that breaks the current calm. We see value in using options to prepare for this, rather than taking an outright directional bet on the currency pair.

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After Iran rejected a ceasefire, the Dollar Index rebounded near 100, as inflation-focused data awaits next week

The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved sharply on Monday, falling from about 100.30 to near 99.75 before recovering to around 100.00. The rebound was capped by the 200-period moving average on the intraday chart. A 45-day ceasefire draft put together by Egyptian, Pakistani, and Turkish mediators was rejected by Iran. Iran said it would only accept a permanent end to the war with guarantees against future attacks.

Markets And Geopolitics

Equities finished higher even after the rejection, while WTI oil stayed above $112 per barrel. President Trump set a Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The ISM Services PMI printed 54 versus 55 expected, and eased from 56.1 in February. The Employment Index fell to 45.2 from 51.8, the lowest since December 2023, despite Friday’s 178K Nonfarm Payrolls figure. Prices Paid rose to 70.7 from 63, and New Orders increased to 60.6 from 58.6, the best since February 2023. This leaves rate expectations unclear. Key releases include March FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and February PCE on Thursday, with Core PCE seen at 0.4% MoM and 3% YoY. Friday’s CPI is forecast at 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY (from 0.3% and 2.4%), with core CPI at 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY; UoM sentiment is seen at 52 versus 53.3.

Technical Levels And Setup

In the 5-minute chart, DXY traded at 100.03, with support at 100.00, 99.96, and 99.90, and resistance at 100.03 and 100.10. The technical section was produced with help from an AI tool. We are seeing a familiar pattern develop around the 105.00 level for the Dollar Index, reminiscent of the situation in early April of 2025 when the index struggled at the 100.00 mark. The current backdrop of elevated geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea and stubbornly high service-sector inflation creates a similar sense of uncertainty. This suggests that the dollar’s next major move will be dictated by hard data rather than shifting headlines. Much like the market’s muted reaction to the Iran ceasefire rejection in 2025, the dollar is struggling to attract a strong safe-haven bid from the latest naval standoffs. While Brent crude has climbed back above $95, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains subdued near 14, suggesting traders are not pricing in a major escalation. This desensitization means we should be cautious about buying dollar call options purely on geopolitical headlines. The economic picture is becoming as muddled as it was this time last year, creating tricky conditions for rate-sensitive derivatives. We just saw a solid 190K Nonfarm Payrolls print for March 2026, yet last week’s ISM Services PMI showed a worrying dip in its employment component, echoing the sharp drop seen in April 2025. With average hourly earnings still growing at a sticky 4.1% year-over-year, these stagflationary signals are paralyzing Fed expectations and creating range-bound conditions in the near term. All eyes are now on this week’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will be the market’s primary driver. Just as traders in 2025 braced for a hot print driven by oil prices, we are facing a similar setup with consensus forecasts for a 0.5% month-over-month headline increase. A number at or above this level could force the market to price out any remaining hopes for a mid-year Fed rate cut, providing a strong tailwind for the dollar. Given the conflicting signals, we see opportunity in buying volatility rather than betting on a clear direction in the immediate term. An options straddle or strangle on USD currency pairs, centered around the upcoming CPI release, could be an effective way to position for a sharp move regardless of the outcome. A break above the 105.50 resistance or below the 104.20 support on the Dollar Index could trigger a significant repricing, making such volatility plays attractive. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Sterling rose over 0.40% as de-escalation rumours and Iran deadline extension weakened the American Dollar

The Pound rose by more than 0.40% on Monday against the US Dollar. GBP/USD traded near 1.3240 at the time of writing. The move followed US President Donald Trump extending Iran’s ultimatum deadline to 7 April. Reports of a possible de-escalation added pressure on the US Dollar.

Geopolitical And Trade Developments

We saw a similar dynamic back in 2025 when geopolitical news about Iran temporarily weakened the dollar and boosted the Pound. Now, with ongoing US-EU trade negotiations showing signs of progress, a similar pattern of dollar softness is emerging. This suggests that positive diplomatic headlines could continue to lift the GBP/USD pair in the short term. This environment makes trading options on currency volatility attractive. One-month implied volatility for GBP/USD has already climbed to 8.2% from a low of 6.5% late last year, making option premiums more expensive but also reflecting the potential for larger price swings. Traders should consider that buying options now means paying for this heightened uncertainty. Fundamental data is also supporting the Pound, which gives this move more credibility than just a reaction to headlines. Recent reports from March 2026 showed UK core inflation remaining persistent at 3.5%, while the latest US CPI data cooled to 3.1%, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to be less hawkish than the Bank of England. This economic divergence makes a stronger Pound against the Dollar a more probable outcome. For the coming weeks, traders could look at buying GBP/USD call options with strike prices around the 1.3350 level. This strategy allows for profiting from a continued upward move driven by positive trade news. Using options that expire in late April or early May would capture the expected period of heightened news flow.

Risk Sentiment And Dollar Behavior

Historically, we’ve observed that the Dollar often weakens when global risk sentiment improves, as capital flows away from safe-haven assets. After the market jitters seen during the fourth quarter of 2025, we are now in a phase where good news about global cooperation directly pressures the dollar. This is a reversal of the dynamic we saw during the sharp risk-off periods of 2022. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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A video explains how MACD predicted Nasdaq’s 2025 reversal, with the same warning signal reappearing now

In April 2025, the Nasdaq fell towards 17,000 before the daily MACD line crossed above the signal line. After that crossover, price rose by over 9,000 points, reaching near 24,000. During that rise, the daily MACD did not cross back below the signal line, including during pullbacks and consolidations. The text links this outcome to the crossover occurring near the end of an Elliott Wave corrective structure.

Daily Macd As A Long Only Filter

A similar daily MACD crossover is now present after sustained selling pressure. The setup is described as similar in the crossover angle, its position versus the zero line, and the histogram behaviour. The process uses three timeframes. On the daily chart, the crossover is used as a long-only filter, and it is invalidated if the MACD crosses back below the signal line. On the 4-hour chart, the move is counted as a new Wave 1 followed by a Wave 2 pullback, with a 4-hour MACD crossover also forming. On the 30-minute chart, a target zone is placed around 23,600, with entry triggered by a 30-minute MACD bullish crossover at that level and a stop set just below the swing low. We are now seeing a powerful signal that mirrors the setup from April 2025. Last year, we saw the Nasdaq fall hard to the 17,000 level before a daily MACD crossover kicked off a sustained rally to over 24,000 points. That same bullish MACD crossover on the daily chart is appearing again today, April 6, 2026, after a sharp pullback from recent all-time highs.

Lower Timeframe Entry And Risk Rules

The market has been selling off since February after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in hotter than expected at 3.1%, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline. This pullback has pushed the Nasdaq down from over 25,500 to its current level around 23,800. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has reflected this fear, spiking above 22 for the first time in six months. For derivative traders, this daily MACD signal acts as a directional filter, meaning we should now exclusively focus on bullish positions. The strategy is to ignore short-selling opportunities as long as the daily MACD line remains above its signal line. If it crosses back below, the bullish setup is invalidated, and we will step aside. The next step is to watch the lower timeframes for a precise entry point for call options or long futures contracts. Based on the Elliott Wave structure, we are anticipating the current corrective pullback to find a bottom near the 23,600 level. This area represents a high-probability zone for the correction to end and the next major upward move to begin. Our entry trigger will be a bullish MACD crossover on the 30-minute chart once the price enters that 23,600 target zone. This provides a clear, repeatable signal to initiate long positions with a defined risk level just below the swing low. The potential reward is significant if this corrective wave is indeed finished, setting the stage for a powerful Wave 3 rally similar to what we witnessed in 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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