US share indices rose on Monday after the Good Friday closure. The DJIA added 120 points (0.3%) to about 46,500 after reaching near 46,700, while the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 0.5%, following last week’s rises of 3%, 3.4%, and 4.4%. Markets reacted to March Nonfarm Payrolls data showing 178K jobs added versus 60K expected. Healthcare contributed 76K as Kaiser Permanente staff returned from strike action, unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.2% MoM with 3.5% YoY. February payrolls were revised to a 133K loss from a previously reported 92K fall. CME FedWatch showed almost no chance of a Fed move at the 28–29 April meeting, and a 77.5% probability rates stay at 3.50%–3.75% through year-end. ISM Services PMI eased to 54 in March from 56.1, below 55 expected, marking a 21st month of growth. Employment fell to 45.2 from 51.8, prices paid rose to 70.7 from 63, and new orders increased to 60.6 from 58.6. Oil trading was volatile amid ceasefire reports involving a 45-day plan and talks on the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran rejected. WTI May rose 0.7% to above $112 a barrel and Brent rose 0.6% to above $109, while US warnings referenced possible strikes if the Strait is not reopened by Tuesday. Later this week, the BEA will release the third estimate of Q4 GDP and the PCE index on Thursday, followed by March CPI on Friday. February CPI was 2.4% YoY, and ISM manufacturing prices were at the highest level since June 2022. Looking back at the data from this time in 2025, we can see the clear signs of stagflation that were emerging. The services sector was slowing while its price component surged, driven by oil prices over $112 a barrel. This happened even as the market was rallying, largely ignoring the underlying economic friction. That period of persistent inflation, fueled by the energy shock, ultimately forced the Federal Reserve to abandon its prolonged pause. We saw the Fed hike rates twice more in the second half of 2025 to curb those price pressures. This cooled the strong jobs market and caused the equity rally to stall out for the remainder of that year. Today, the situation has changed significantly, with WTI crude having settled back into the mid-$80s following a de-escalation in the Middle East. This has helped ease headline inflation, allowing the Fed to pause its tightening cycle with the upper bound of the federal funds rate now at 4.50%. The most recent March 2026 jobs report showed a more sustainable gain of 195,000 jobs, with unemployment ticking up slightly to 4.5%. Given this backdrop, implied volatility has been crushed, with the VIX currently trading near 16. This complacency presents an opportunity for traders to purchase protection at a low cost. The recent calm in the markets may not last, especially with key inflation data on the horizon. With the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due next week, buying puts on major indices like the SPY or QQQ could be a prudent move. Any upside inflation surprise could reignite fears of another Fed hike, causing a spike in volatility and a drop in equities. These relatively cheap options provide a cost-effective hedge against such an outcome. There is also significant uncertainty priced into the bond market regarding the Fed’s next steps later this year. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a roughly 55% probability of a rate cut by December 2026, leaving considerable room for repricing. Establishing positions in SOFR futures or options on bond ETFs like TLT could capitalize on shifts in rate expectations following the upcoming FOMC meetings.

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Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw the USD/CHF pair face significant resistance at the 0.8000 level. The technical picture then showed a potential double-top formation, hinting that the recovery from January 2025 lows was losing steam. This setup served as a warning sign for bulls. Today, the situation is vastly different, with the pair trading significantly higher around 0.9150. The primary driver is a clear divergence in monetary policy between a dovish Swiss National Bank (SNB) and a more resolute U.S. Federal Reserve. This fundamental backdrop has overpowered the technical patterns we observed last year.

Swiss Inflation And SnB Policy Shift

The SNB acted last month, cutting its key policy rate to 1.50% as inflation has cooled substantially. Recent data confirmed Swiss inflation is running at just 1.4% year-over-year, well below the central bank’s 2% target. This gives them room for further easing if the economy falters. Conversely, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, keeping the Federal Reserve on a more hawkish path. March’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a robust addition of 215,000 jobs, reducing the urgency for the Fed to cut interest rates. This interest rate differential is a powerful tailwind for USD/CHF. For derivative traders, this clear upward trend suggests buying call options to speculate on further gains. Strategies like purchasing the 0.9200 strike calls or implementing bull call spreads could offer favorable risk-reward. The steady momentum makes these bullish positions attractive in the coming weeks. However, traders should remain aware of downside risks. Buying put options with a strike near the 50-day moving average around 0.9080 could serve as a valuable hedge against any unexpected reversal in sentiment. Recent CFTC data shows a significant net-short position on the franc, meaning a sharp reversal could be aggressive if it occurs.

Volatility Conditions And Options Pricing

Implied volatility in the pair has remained relatively subdued due to the persistent trend. This makes buying options comparatively cheaper, presenting an opportunity to establish positions before any potential spike in market turbulence. This environment favors taking a defined-risk directional view. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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US shares rose after the Good Friday closure. The Dow added 120 points (0.3%) to about 46,500 after touching 46,700; the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%, after last week’s rises of 3%, 3.4% and 4.4%. Markets reacted to March Nonfarm Payrolls data showing 178K jobs, versus 60K expected. The stronger headline followed strike-related returns, while average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month on month and 3.5% year on year, the lowest since May 2021.

Labor Market And Inflation Signals

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%. February payrolls were revised to a 133K loss from a previously reported 92K fall. ISM services PMI eased to 54 in March from 56.1, against a 55 forecast, marking a 21st month of growth. The Employment Index fell to 45.2 from 51.8, while New Orders rose to 60.6 from 58.6. The Prices Paid Index climbed to 70.7 from 63, linked to higher oil and fuel costs. WTI was up 0.7% above $112 a barrel and Brent up 0.6% above $109, amid ceasefire talks and threats tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Attention shifts to Thursday’s third estimate of Q4 GDP and the PCE index, and Friday’s March CPI; February CPI was 2.4% year on year. Futures implied a 77.5% chance rates stay at 3.50%–3.75% through year-end, with near-zero odds of an April move.

Lessons From 2025 For Today

Looking back to this time in 2025, the market was digesting a strong jobs report but was underestimating inflation risks. We saw the ISM Prices Paid index surging to 70.7, a clear warning sign of cost pressures that were being overlooked. The focus on soft wage growth at the time proved to be a head-fake, as rising energy costs were the real story. That sharp rise in prices paid during 2025 was a critical signal that the Federal Reserve would not be able to hold rates steady as markets expected. In fact, that year’s stubborn inflation, which saw the core PCE rise to 3.8% by the third quarter of 2025, forced two more rate hikes that brought us to the 4.75%-5.00% range we are in today. This history suggests we should place more weight on the price components of PMI reports than on wage data when the Fed is in a holding pattern. The extreme volatility in oil, with WTI swinging above $112 per barrel amid the Mideast conflict in 2025, also taught us a valuable lesson. While markets seemed desensitized then, the sustained high prices ultimately filtered into the broader economy, validating the concerns about energy disruption. With WTI now trading in a more stable range around $85 a barrel as of April 2026, implied volatility in the energy sector is much lower, presenting opportunities to buy protection against future geopolitical shocks at a cheaper price. Given that the March 2026 jobs report showed a more modest gain of 150K and the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.5%, the economic picture is now softer. The market is pricing in potential rate cuts later this year, a stark contrast to the hawkish reality that followed April 2025. Traders should consider strategies like buying call spreads on interest-rate sensitive ETFs, which would benefit from a Fed pivot while defining risk in case inflation proves sticky once again. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell towards 100.00 on Monday after a Strait of Hormuz ultimatum, while markets also tracked hopes for a US–Iran ceasefire framework. Support for the Dollar from higher oil prices and a more cautious Federal Reserve outlook remained in place. US ISM Services PMI eased to 54 in March from 56.1, while prices paid rose sharply. This added to concerns about inflation linked to energy shocks.

Major Fx Moves

EUR/USD rose towards 1.1550 but stayed capped after rebounding from intraday lows. GBP/USD climbed towards 1.3240, helped by a softer Dollar, while USD/JPY was steadier after earlier swings near 159.70 and attention on 160.00. AUD/USD advanced towards 0.6920 as risk sentiment improved. WTI held above $112.00, supported by Strait of Hormuz disruption and strike threats, while OPEC+ agreed to raise May output and ceasefire headlines limited further gains. Gold hovered near $4,660, little changed after earlier weakness. The calendar includes Australia’s TD-MI Inflation Gauge, EU HCOB PMIs and Sentix, US Durable Goods Orders, Canada’s Ivey PMI, Japan earnings and current account, and New Zealand’s RBNZ rate decision and policy review. WTI is a US crude benchmark traded via Cushing, with prices driven by supply and demand, OPEC decisions, political disruption, and the US Dollar. API and EIA inventory reports can move prices, with results within 1% of each other 75% of the time.

2025 Versus Today

Looking back at this time in 2025, the market was driven by fears of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices above $112 per barrel. Today, with WTI crude trading much lower around $86, that geopolitical risk premium has completely vanished. This suggests that derivative plays based on supply shocks are less viable, and focus should shift to economic demand indicators. Last April, the US Dollar Index was weakening toward 100 on hopes of a ceasefire, but now it’s holding firm above 104. The Federal Reserve’s commitment to keeping rates higher for longer, a stark contrast to last year’s caution, is supporting the dollar. With the 10-year Treasury yield staying elevated near 4.4%, options strategies should favor dollar strength against currencies with more dovish central banks. We saw EUR/USD surge toward 1.1550 in 2025 as the dollar softened, a level that seems distant from today’s reality below 1.08. Similarly, while last year’s focus was on Japanese intervention to stop USD/JPY from hitting 160, the pair now trades calmly around 152. The narrative has shifted from geopolitical risk to the persistent interest rate differential, making long dollar positions more structurally sound. In 2025, inflation concerns were tied directly to the energy shock, but now the focus is on sticky services inflation, with the latest CPI data showing a 3.5% annual increase. The extreme gold price of over $4,600 seen last year reflected a flight to safety from an active conflict. Today’s price, while strong near $2,350, is more a hedge against persistent inflation and central bank policy rather than imminent war. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Vietnam’s headline CPI rose to 4.65% year-on-year in March 2026, up from an average of 2.94% in January to February. Higher energy costs were cited as a driver, taking inflation above the State Bank of Vietnam’s 4.5% target. Inflation was described as supply-driven rather than demand-driven. The focus was placed on the State Bank of Vietnam’s policy stance as inflation was expected to rise further in the months ahead and move further above 4.5%.

Policy Rate Outlook

UOB projected no policy tightening in response to the supply-led rise in prices. It forecast the State Bank of Vietnam’s refinance rate would remain at 4.50% through 2026. The article stated it was created with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. With inflation jumping to 4.65% in March 2026, we see a clear divergence between rising prices and a stationary central bank policy. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is expected to hold its refinance rate at 4.50% because the inflation is supply-driven. This creates specific opportunities in interest rate derivatives. For the coming weeks, we believe the front end of the interest rate swap curve is mispriced if it reflects any chance of a rate hike. We should consider receiving fixed on 1-year and 2-year VND swaps, betting that short-term rates will remain anchored at 4.50%. This position benefits from a policy stance that looks through the current inflation spike, a view supported by the government’s focus on maintaining economic growth, which stood at a healthy 5.66% in Q1 2026.

Cross Asset Trading Implications

This policy stance, however, likely puts pressure on the Vietnamese Dong, as high inflation without a corresponding rate hike erodes its real yield. This is a notable shift from the currency’s relative stability through much of 2025. We see value in positioning for a weaker VND by buying USD/VND non-deliverable forwards (NDFs), as the exchange rate has already crept up to around 25,500 this past week. The combination of stable, low borrowing costs and strong growth is supportive for equities. The VN-Index is already up over 5% year-to-date, and a dovish SBV should reinforce this positive sentiment. Traders could look at buying call options on the index or related ETFs to capitalize on further upside. Given the uncertainty, volatility itself presents a trading opportunity. If inflation continues to accelerate well beyond 5% in the second quarter, the SBV may be forced to reconsider its position, leading to a sharp market repricing. A long volatility strategy, such as buying a straddle on the USD/VND, could pay off if the central bank’s resolve is tested. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved down towards 100.00 on Monday as hopes for a US–Iran ceasefire framework reduced demand for safe-haven flows. This came alongside US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum linked to the Strait of Hormuz. US ISM Services PMI eased to 54 in March from 56.1, while prices paid rose sharply. Markets focused on the risk that higher energy costs could add to inflation.

Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies

The US Dollar was strongest against the Japanese Yen, while it fell against other majors: EUR +0.27%, GBP +0.32%, JPY +0.03%, CAD +0.24%, AUD +0.41%, NZD +0.45%, CHF +0.26%. For USD itself, changes were: EUR -0.27%, GBP -0.32%, JPY -0.03%, CAD -0.24%, AUD -0.41%, NZD -0.45%, CHF -0.26%. EUR/USD traded near 1.1550 and GBP/USD near 1.3240, with both supported by a softer Dollar. USD/JPY was volatile near 159.70, with attention on 160.00. WTI crude stayed above $112.00, supported by Hormuz disruption and supply risks, while OPEC+ agreed to lift May output. Gold held near $4,660. Key events include EU PMIs and Sentix, US Durable Goods Orders, Canada Ivey PMI, Japan earnings and current account, and the RBNZ rate decision, followed by US PCE, GDP, jobless claims, and US CPI later in the week.

Comparing Last Year With Today

We should remember that this time last year, in April 2025, hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire pushed the US Dollar Index down toward 100.00 as safe-haven demand faded. Today, the dollar is significantly stronger, trading above 104, reflecting a different set of global risks and a more resolute Federal Reserve. This contrast from last year shows how quickly geopolitical narratives can shift currency valuations. The events of April 2025 saw WTI crude oil prices elevated above $112 a barrel due to the Strait of Hormuz disruption. While current tensions in the Red Sea are supporting oil, prices today are more subdued around $85, showing the market is not pricing in a direct superpower confrontation. Still, we see supply tightening, with recent EIA data showing a 1.5 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories, which could keep prices volatile. Last year’s jump in the ISM services prices paid component highlighted how quickly energy shocks feed inflation. We are seeing a similar pattern now, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showing inflation remains sticky at 3.2% year-over-year. This persistent inflation is why the Fed is holding interest rates higher for longer, supporting the dollar, unlike its more “cautious” stance in 2025. The key lesson from last year is that headline risk can cause sharp reversals, making this a challenging environment for directional bets. We should consider buying volatility through options, as sudden news of either escalation or de-escalation in current conflicts could trigger significant price swings in oil and currency pairs. Straddles on WTI futures or EUR/USD could be an effective way to position for a large move, regardless of the direction. We also saw the USD/JPY pair flirt with the 160.00 level in April 2025, prompting intense speculation about intervention from Japanese authorities. We are in a similar territory again today, with the pair above 151, and Japanese officials have already increased their verbal warnings. The playbook from last year suggests that derivative traders should be wary of holding large long positions and could use put options to hedge against a sudden, sharp strengthening of the yen. Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar rallied hard on the 2025 ceasefire news, demonstrating their sensitivity to shifts in global risk appetite. This shows that any signs of easing tensions in today’s conflicts could cause a similar spike in the Aussie. We should therefore watch AUD/USD options for opportunities to position for a rapid increase in risk-on sentiment in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Vietnam’s headline CPI rose to 4.65% year-on-year in March 2026, up from an average of 2.94% in January to February. The rise was linked to higher energy costs. The 4.65% inflation rate was above the State Bank of Vietnam’s 4.5% target. Inflation was expected to increase further in the months ahead and to stay above 4.5%.

Central Bank Likely To Stay On Hold

The report said the price rise was driven by supply factors rather than demand. It forecast no policy tightening in response. UOB projected that the SBV would keep its refinance rate unchanged at 4.50% through 2026. The article stated it was produced with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Given the new inflation data from March 2026, we see a clear signal from the central bank to remain on hold. The jump in inflation to 4.65% is notable because it breaches the 4.5% target, but the view is that this is driven by supply issues, not a booming domestic demand problem. This suggests the State Bank of Vietnam will prioritize economic stability over fighting this specific price shock. This policy stance is consistent with what we observed in the past, such as during the commodity price spikes in 2025. Back then, the SBV also held rates steady, avoiding a policy-induced slowdown and allowing supply chains to normalize on their own. We expect a similar playbook now, which suggests short-term interest rate markets may have overpriced the risk of a rate hike.

Trading Implications For Rates And Currency

For traders in the coming weeks, this means any remaining bets on a near-term rate hike should be unwound, likely putting downward pressure on shorter-term Vietnamese Dong interest rate swaps. With the refinance rate firmly anchored at 4.50%, receiving fixed on 1-year or 2-year swaps could be an attractive position. The market currently shows a slight premium for hikes which we expect will disappear. This stability in local policy rates, however, creates a divergence with other economies, potentially weighing on the currency. The Vietnamese Dong could face depreciation pressure against the US dollar, especially as the US Federal Reserve has held its own rates firm amid resilient economic data. The USD/VND has already climbed to 25,580, a 1.1% increase since the beginning of 2026, and this trend may continue. Consequently, volatility in the USD/VND currency pair is likely to pick up. Traders should consider buying call options on the USD/VND to hedge against or profit from further Dong weakness. The expectation of a passive central bank in the face of rising inflation and a stable Fed makes further currency depreciation a significant risk. This entire situation is supported by Vietnam’s strong economic fundamentals, with GDP growth hitting 6.1% in 2025, largely driven by exports. The SBV is reluctant to tighten policy and risk harming this growth engine, especially when inflation is being imported through factors like global energy costs. Global oil prices have, for example, risen over 10% since January 2026, a factor completely outside the SBV’s control. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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WTI crude oil prices moved sharply, with May futures jumping above $115 before easing to near $112. Spot WTI traded near $104, down 0.2%, after a range between about $101 and $106. The gap between spot and front-month futures points to steep backwardation and a near-term delivery premium linked to a Tuesday deadline. WTI futures rose nearly 12% last Thursday, while spot prices stayed well below the futures level. Donald Trump said the US would target Iranian power plants and bridges by midnight Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by 8 pm Eastern Time. Iran rejected the ultimatum and said the Strait would reopen only after reparations for war damage. The Strait has been largely closed to commercial shipping since late February, with an estimated 17 to 18 million barrels per day affected. A Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire plan, passed via Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, was also rejected by Iran. US crude inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels for the week ending 27 March, and OPEC+ approved a 206K barrels-per-day output increase for April. Goldman Sachs put the risk premium at $14 to $18 per barrel. We remember the extreme volatility around this time last year, when the standoff with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz caused a massive spike in crude futures. The market went into extreme backwardation, with the May 2025 contract trading near $115 while spot prices struggled to hold $104. That memory of a $15 geopolitical risk premium appearing almost overnight should keep us cautious. Unlike the acute crisis in March 2025, today’s market is dealing with a slower grind of competing factors. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, they haven’t shut down a major transit route. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories of 2.7 million barrels, suggesting softer demand than anticipated. This inventory build contrasts with supply-side discipline, as OPEC+ has just agreed to extend its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the second quarter. This creates a tense balance where fundamental weakness is being propped up by managed supply cuts. WTI crude is currently trading around $85 a barrel, significantly lower than last year’s crisis peak but still elevated historically. Given this setup, outright directional bets are risky in the coming weeks. The memory of last year’s sudden price explosion means any escalation in the Middle East could trigger a rapid rally, making short positions dangerous. Therefore, we should focus on options strategies to define our risk, such as buying call spreads to bet on a modest rise or purchasing puts to protect against a sudden drop if demand fears take over. The elevated implied volatility in options contracts reflects the market’s anxiety, but it is a price worth paying for protection. We can use strategies like a straddle or strangle if we anticipate a large price move but are unsure of the direction. This allows us to profit from the volatility itself, which seems to be the only certainty in this market.

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Gold fell in North American trading on Monday after reaching $4,706, as prospects of a US–Iran ceasefire weakened. Reports said the US military was preparing for possible strikes on energy targets in Iran, and Iran rejected ceasefire proposals for a 45-day pause backed by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey. XAU/USD was at $4,652, with WTI up 1.40% to $113.64 per barrel. The US Dollar Index was back above 100.00 and down 0.19%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.337%. US President Donald Trump said Iran “can be taken out in one night, might be Tuesday night”. He set April 7 at 8:00 PM ET as the time for action if Iran does not meet US demands, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US data were mixed, with ISM Services PMI at 54 in March versus 56.1 and forecasts of 55, while prices paid rose to 70.7, the highest since October 2022. Nonfarm Payrolls rose 178K versus 60K expected, unemployment edged down from 4.4% to 4.3%, and markets now expect steady Fed rates all year. Technically, resistance is near $4,700 and support sits at the 100-day SMA of $4,639, then $4,600, $4,553 and $4,500. Above $4,700, levels include the 20-day SMA at $4,755 and $4,800. Given the high tension around the potential US strikes on Iran, we must be prepared for extreme volatility, especially with the deadline set for this evening. A military conflict would almost certainly cause oil prices to surge, likely well past the current $113 per barrel, as we saw during the 1990 Gulf War build-up when prices more than doubled in three months. This makes long positions in crude oil derivatives, like call options on WTI, an attractive way to trade the immediate risk of escalation. The situation with gold is more complex, as it is caught between geopolitical safe-haven demand and the headwind of a strong US Dollar. Rising oil is fueling inflation fears, evidenced by the ISM prices paid component hitting its highest level since we were dealing with the inflation spike back in October 2022, yet the dollar’s strength is capping gold’s upside. We should consider options strategies like straddles to play the expected sharp move in gold without betting on the direction, especially as the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has likely pushed above 25. Strong US economic data, particularly last week’s nonfarm payrolls report which showed the unemployment rate at 4.3%, has cemented the view that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady. This supports the US Dollar and puts pressure on non-yielding assets like gold, meaning any rally in bullion may be short-lived if the immediate Iran threat de-escalates. We’re watching the US 10-year Treasury yield, which at 4.337% offers a competitive return against holding gold. From a technical standpoint, gold’s failure to hold the $4,700 level is a bearish signal, with the next key support at the 100-day moving average around $4,639. A break below this level could trigger further selling, making put options or bearish put spreads on XAU/USD a potential strategy for the coming weeks. However, we must remain nimble, as any confirmed military action could override these technicals and cause a flight to safety that sends gold sharply higher despite dollar strength.

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WTI crude oil prices moved sharply, with May futures briefly above $115 before easing to about $112. Spot crude stayed near $104, down 0.2%, after trading between about $101 and close to $106. Donald Trump set an 8 pm Eastern Time Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with threats to destroy power plants and bridges. Iran rejected the ultimatum and said the strait would reopen only after reparations are paid.

Strait Of Hormuz Supply Shock

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed to most commercial shipping since late February after US and Israeli strikes on Iran. This has removed an estimated 17 to 18 million barrels per day from normal transit flows. WTI futures rose nearly 12% last Thursday. A Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire proposal was also rejected by Iran, after messages were relayed by foreign ministers from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey. The EIA said US crude inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels in the week ending March 27. OPEC+ approved a 206K barrels-per-day output increase for April, while Goldman Sachs put the geopolitical risk premium at $14 to $18 per barrel. On a 5-minute chart, WTI traded at $103.97, with the 200-period EMA near $102.90; resistance was cited at $104.80 and $105.50, and support at $104.00, $102.90, and $102.50.

Lessons For Trading And Risk

Looking back at the events of spring 2025, we are reminded of how quickly geopolitical risk can overwhelm market fundamentals. The massive backwardation we saw then, with May 2025 futures soaring to $115 while spot prices lagged, was a clear signal of extreme fear over near-term supply from the Strait of Hormuz crisis. This memory should guide our strategies, as even significant inventory builds were ignored when tensions flared. In the coming weeks, we must remain vigilant for similar disconnects between fundamentals and geopolitical headlines. With WTI currently trading near a more subdued $88 per barrel, the market seems complacent, but recent friction within OPEC+ over production compliance for March 2026 could easily escalate. We’ve seen reports that overall compliance fell to 95%, the lowest in over a year, suggesting internal discipline is fraying and creating supply uncertainty. Therefore, traders should pay close attention to the futures curve for any signs of it shifting back toward the kind of steep backwardation we witnessed in 2025. This structure is a key barometer of supply anxiety, and its appearance would be a strong signal to anticipate higher volatility. Right now, buying long-dated, out-of-the-money call options could be a cost-effective way to position for a sudden upward spike. We should also monitor oil volatility itself through instruments like the OVX index. Back in the 2025 crisis, the OVX spiked above 60, whereas today it is hovering around a relatively calm 32, suggesting options are comparatively cheap. This environment presents an opportunity to build positions that would profit from a sharp price movement in either direction, such as a long straddle, ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting. While the most recent EIA report showed a surprise inventory draw of 2.1 million barrels for the week ending April 3, 2026, the lesson from 2025 is that such data can become a secondary driver. A single headline concerning supply disruptions or major producer disagreements will likely have a far greater impact on price in the near term. We should therefore weight our analysis heavily toward geopolitical scanning and risk management. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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