In a positive turn for the stock markets, Tuesday saw a surge driven by robust earnings reports, yet concerns linger over lofty tech valuations. Major companies like Coca-Cola and Spotify exceeded expectations, while General Motors faced challenges. David Bahnsen of Bahnsen Group emphasized worries about high-tech valuations. Meanwhile, the US dollar gained strength with a rebound in Treasury yields and strong US PMI data, impacting currency markets. The article highlights the potential impact of upcoming economic data and central bank meetings on the currency market.

Stock Market Updates

On Tuesday, stock markets saw positive gains driven by a fresh wave of earnings reports and cautious monitoring of Treasury yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 204.97 points, a 0.62% increase, closing at 33,141.38. The S&P 500 followed suit, climbing by 0.73% to finish at 4,247.68, and the Nasdaq Composite experienced a significant 0.93% uptick, reaching a level of 13,139.87. Earnings reports from major companies were a key focus for investors, with Coca-Cola reporting earnings and revenue that surpassed estimates, leading to a 2.9% increase in its stock price. Similarly, Spotify experienced a notable 10% surge after surpassing expectations with its third-quarter results. On the other hand, General Motors’ shares declined by 2.3% as the company withdrew its full-year outlook due to increased costs attributed to strikes by the United Auto Workers union. Despite this setback, the automaker did manage to post better-than-expected third-quarter results. Several tech giants, including Alphabet and Microsoft, were scheduled to release their results after the market closed, with Amazon and Meta also set to report later in the week. Despite strong earnings, some experts like David Bahnsen, the chief investment officer at Bahnsen Group, cautioned that the lofty valuations of big tech companies remain a cause for concern, suggesting that the market may be pricing them for perfection.

The ongoing earnings season has been generally positive, with around 23% of S&P 500 companies already reporting their earnings, and a significant 77% of them surpassing analysts’ expectations, according to FactSet. Despite this favorable start, concerns persist about the high valuations of many tech companies. Bahnsen Group’s David Bahnsen emphasized that the current valuations of big tech firms are excessively high, even considering the recent stock price declines observed over the past few months. He expressed skepticism about the sustainability of such valuations, suggesting that this dynamic may not end well. A significant number of S&P 500 companies are yet to report their earnings for the week, totaling around 150, making it a pivotal period for investors as they continue to assess the overall health of the market.

Data by Bloomberg

On Tuesday, across all sectors, the market saw a 0.73% increase in value. The top-performing sectors were Utilities, with a significant gain of 2.57%, followed by Communication Services at 1.38%, Real Estate at 1.19%, and Materials at 1.13%. Other sectors also showed positive performance, including Consumer Discretionary (1.04%), Consumer Staples (0.96%), Industrials (0.72%), Information Technology (0.71%), and Financials (0.67%). However, Health Care had a more modest increase at 0.29%, while Energy experienced a decline of -1.42% on that day.       

Currency Market Updates

In the latest currency market updates, the US dollar exhibited strength, with the dollar index rising by 0.7%. This uptick was driven by a rebound in Treasury yields, following a setback on Monday, and positive flash US October PMI figures that exceeded expectations. In contrast, European and Japanese PMIs showed signs of deterioration, which put pressure on the euro. The EUR/USD pair fell by 0.74% as bund-Treasury yield spreads narrowed due to the divergence in PMIs. The potential reinforcement of this trend is anticipated with the release of US Q3 GDP data on Thursday, which is forecasted to be 4.3%. The article notes that the US dollar’s performance is also influenced by key economic data, with a focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday.

Additionally, the sterling weakened by 0.75%, primarily due to the drop in gilt-treasury yield spreads, which was accentuated by soft UK PMI data and reinforced by the view that the Bank of England’s rate hike cycle may be coming to an end. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair rose by 0.1%, but its upward momentum remained stalled near the 150 level. Despite a decline in 2-year Treasury-JGB yields, which was significant relative to last week’s peak, buyers are still attracted to the pair due to the substantial yield spread. However, the market remains cautious beyond the 150 level, fearing potential intervention by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to support the yen. The article highlights that the currency market is keeping a close eye on these developments.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Surges to One-Month High as Weaker US Dollar Drives Momentum

The EUR/USD pair rallied significantly on Monday, breaking a downtrend line and reaching 1.0676, its highest level in a month, primarily due to a sharp decline in the US Dollar and improved market sentiment. As the Eurozone and the US prepare to release key PMI data and important monetary policy meetings are on the horizon, the Euro’s outlook remains favorable, though some consolidation may follow the 100-pip rally.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved lower on Tuesday, pushing towards the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading just below the middle band, suggesting the potential for another push lower movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49, indicating that the EUR/USD is back in neutral bias.

Resistance: 1.0616, 1.0705

Support: 1.0561, 1.0500

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Slips as Resurgent US Dollar Overshadows Global Tensions

Gold prices faced downward pressure, with XAU/USD hitting an intraday low of $1,953.53 per troy ounce during London trading hours due to a resurgence in demand for the US Dollar. While global tensions simmered with delays in a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip and calls for a peaceful resolution, the Greenback gained strength, benefiting from positive US data and concerns about a steeper economic contraction in Europe, leading to a modest recovery after mid-day trading.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, XAU/USD is moving in consolidation on Tuesday and able to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price of gold is moving just around the middle band, suggesting a possible continuation movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently registers at 58, indicating a neutral bias for the XAU/USD pair.

Resistance: $1,985, $2,002

Support: $1,973, $1,947

Economic Data

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On Monday, the stock market witnessed mixed fortunes as the Nasdaq Composite edged higher while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines, influenced by fluctuations in Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield breached the 5% mark, sparking worries of further monetary tightening and its potential impact on the economy. As Wall Street endured a challenging week, major tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft’s upcoming earnings reports were eagerly anticipated for insights into the market’s trajectory. Meanwhile, the currency market saw the US dollar weaken, the euro showing strength, and the British pound gaining ground, as expectations of central bank policies and upcoming economic data played a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment.

Stock Market Updates

On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite saw a slight increase in value as Treasury yields eased from their recent highs. Investors were eagerly anticipating the release of corporate earnings reports from tech industry giants. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, experienced a decline of 190.87 points, amounting to a 0.58% drop, closing at 32,936.41. The S&P 500 also dipped, falling by 0.17% to reach 4,217.04. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite, known for its tech-heavy components, managed to gain 0.27%, concluding the session at 13,018.33. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield briefly exceeded the significant 5% level before slightly receding, ultimately settling at around 4.85%.

Interest rates have surged in recent weeks, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing the 5% threshold for the first time since July 2007. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments suggested further monetary policy tightening, increasing investor concerns and contributing to the rise in Treasury yields. Some analysts predict that the benchmark yield may continue to rise. The rapid increase in yields has raised concerns about its impact on the economy, with Canaccord Genuity chief market strategist Tony Dwyer noting that it could accelerate an already weakening economic situation masked by higher rates. After a challenging week, which saw the S&P 500 ending 2.4% lower, the Dow Jones losing 1.6%, and the Nasdaq experienced its second consecutive weekly decline of 3.2%, Wall Street now awaits a series of major tech companies’ earnings reports, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, which are expected to provide crucial insights for the stock market.

Data by Bloomberg

On Monday, the overall market experienced a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.17%. Among the individual sectors, there were variations in performance. Communication Services and Information Technology sectors saw gains of +0.72% and +0.42%, respectively. Consumer Discretionary also showed a modest increase of +0.21%. Conversely, Consumer Staples and Industrials experienced declines of -0.27% and -0.46%, respectively. Health Care and Financials sectors declined by -0.63% and -0.71%, respectively. Utilities and Real Estate sectors had larger declines of -0.82% and -0.84%, respectively. Materials and Energy sectors saw the most significant declines with -1.07% and -1.62%, respectively.  

Currency Market Updates

In recent currency market updates, the US dollar experienced a decline of 0.5% as risk aversion sentiment eased, allowing stocks to recover and oil prices to drop, primarily because the worst-case geopolitical scenarios did not materialize. Concurrently, 10-year Treasury yields retreated from their recent peak above 5%. The dollar index fell below a crucial 30-day moving average support level, heading toward October’s lows. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair showed strength, rising by 0.7% and surpassing its previous October recovery high at 1.0640, along with other significant resistance levels nearby. A close above 1.0643 would signify a broader correction after a 12-week downtrend, with potential upside targets at 1.0700 and 1.0740.

Furthermore, market sentiment regarding the euro was influenced by the anticipation of upcoming economic data from the eurozone and the United States. Although these data forecasts were not particularly bullish for EUR/USD, the market seemed to signal that the worst of the divergence in yield spreads between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) is over. The ECB was expected to maintain a steady course, with no further rate hikes and the possibility of rate cuts by June, which aligns with the Fed’s timeline. The British pound also gained strength for similar reasons as EUR/USD, with expectations of fewer rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in comparison to the Fed. However, it remained below its downtrend line from July’s highs and October’s rebound highs. Investors were closely watching delayed UK employment data to assess the likelihood of another BoE rate hike. Additionally, USD/JPY experienced a 0.14% decline after nearly reaching a peak close to the pivotal 150 level, primarily due to a drop in 10-year Treasury yields. The market was focused on a significant amount of USD/JPY 150 option expiries on Friday, with limited pricing for substantial moves, especially above 150, before the end of the month and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. The prospects for dip-buyers would depend on the performance of Treasury-JGB yields following key US data releases later in the week. Tuesday was expected to bring global flash PMI readings for October, with most forecasts indicating continued economic challenges.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Surges to One-Month High as Weaker US Dollar Drives Momentum

The EUR/USD pair rallied significantly on Monday, breaking a downtrend line and reaching 1.0676, its highest level in a month, primarily due to a sharp decline in the US Dollar and improved market sentiment. As the Eurozone and the US prepare to release key PMI data and important monetary policy meetings are on the horizon, the Euro’s outlook remains favorable, though some consolidation may follow the 100-pip rally.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved higher on Monday, pushing towards the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading at the upper band, suggesting the potential for another push higher movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 75, indicating that the EUR/USD is entering a bullish bias.

Resistance: 1.0705, 1.0770

Support: 1.0630, 1.0561

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Retreats from Multi-Month Highs Amid Optimistic Start to the Week”

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) experienced a pullback from recent multi-month highs, briefly dipping to the $1,960 price range before finding support at around $1,977 per troy ounce during the American trading session. This retreat was attributed to easing demand for safe-haven assets, influenced by optimism in the financial markets as the situation in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hamas, showed signs of not escalating. The movement in gold was also influenced by changes in government bond yields and speculation about monetary policies in various countries, including Japan and the United States. As the week progresses, investors are closely watching upcoming events, such as the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision and the release of key economic indicators in the United States.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, XAU/USD is moving in consolidation on Monday and able to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price of gold is moving just above the middle band, suggesting a possible continuation movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently registers at 63, indicating a bullish bias for the XAU/USD pair.

Resistance: $1,985, $2,002

Support: $1,973, $1,947

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Starting from October 29, 2023, the trading hours of some MT4/MT5 products will change due to the upcoming Daylight Saving Time change in the EU/UK.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

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Several key events are expected to influence the financial markets this week, including interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada (BOC) and the European Central Bank (ECB). In light of this, we recommend traders to exercise caution in their trading preparations, keeping in mind the potential for increased market volatility.

Here are some key highlights to keep an eye on during the week:

UK Claimant Count Change (24 October 2023) 

The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK increased by 900 in August 2023. 

Updated figures will be released on 24 October, with analysts expecting an additional increase of 2,300. 

Flash Manufacturing PMI for Germany, the UK, and the US (24 October 2023)

Germany’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed from 39.1 in August 2023 to 39.6 in September 2023. Meanwhile, the UK’s manufacturing PMI for the same period increased from 43 to 44.3. Finally, the US’ manufacturing PMI for the same period rose from 47.9 to 49.8.

Updated figures will be released on 24 October, with analysts expecting manufacturing PMIs of 40.1 for Germany, 44.7 for the UK, and 49.5 for the US.

Flash Services PMI for Germany, the UK, and the US (24 October 2023)  

Germany’s services PMI rose from 47.3 in August 2023 to 50.3 in September 2023. Conversely, the UK’s services PMI declined from 49.5 to 49.3 during this period, while the US’ services PMI also fell from 50.5 to 50.1 during the same period.

Analysts’ forecasted services PMIs for October 2023 are as follows: 50.1 for Germany, 49.4 for the UK, and 49.9 for the US. 

Australia Consumer Price Index (25 October 2023)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia increased by 5.2% in August 2023, up from the 4.9% rise recorded in July 2023. 

Analysts are expecting a growth rate of 5.4% for September 2023, with updated figures to be released on 25 October.

Bank of Canada Rate Statement (25 October 2023)

The BOC maintained its overnight rate target at 5% during its September 2023 meeting, marking another pause in its tightening cycle. The bank indicated that future rate decisions would hinge on the most recent economic indicators.

The next rate statement is set to be released on 25 October, with analysts expecting rates to remain at 5%.

European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate (26 October 2023) 

During its September 2023 meeting, the ECB increased its main refinancing rate by 25 bps to 4.5%. The decision to hike the interest rate was closely contested among ECB members, with the meeting minutes revealing that they were divided by tactical considerations. 

Analysts expect the central bank to maintain a rate of 4.5% following its upcoming meeting on 26 October.

US Advance GDP (26 October 2023) 

The US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.1% in Q2 2023, down slightly from the 2.2% growth in Q1 2023.

Data for Q3 2023 is scheduled for release on 26 October, with analysts projecting a growth rate of 4.3%.

US Core PCE Price Index (27 October 2023) 

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for the US, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.1% month-over-month in August 2023. This was the smallest increase since November 2020.

Data for September 2023 is scheduled for release on 27 October, with analysts expecting a growth of 0.3%.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

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In the latest trading session, stock markets experienced a decline as investors reacted to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks regarding elevated inflation and monitored the rise in the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.75%, concluding at 33,414.17, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw drops of 0.85% and 0.96%, respectively. Powell’s comments indicated a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, resulting in a 97% probability of rates remaining unchanged at the upcoming policy meeting. Rising bond yields further added to market unease. Despite strong quarterly earnings reports from some S&P 500 companies, all major indexes are poised for weekly losses. In the currency market, the US dollar retreated, influenced by Powell’s speech and yield spreads between different countries’ bonds. The week ahead will be influenced by Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), UK retail sales, and developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Stock Market Updates

Stocks experienced a decline on Thursday as investors closely examined statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and monitored a crucial development in the Treasury bond yield. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 250.91 points, marking a 0.75% drop, concluding at 33,414.17. Simultaneously, the S&P 500 saw a decrease of 0.85% to reach 4,278, and the Nasdaq Composite ended 0.96% lower at around 13,186. Powell acknowledged that inflation remains elevated and may necessitate slower economic growth, while also acknowledging some recent progress in curbing price increases. He stressed that despite these positive developments, inflation remains too high, emphasizing the need for more sustained progress in this regard. Investors interpreted his comments as a signal that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adjust interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting, with a 97% chance of rates remaining unchanged as per CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Nevertheless, there is lingering uncertainty about the Fed’s long-term rate strategy, causing market volatility.

Rising bond yields also had a bearing on the market’s performance, with the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approaching the significant 5% level, last seen in 2007. Additionally, quarterly earnings reports were a point of interest, with more than 15% of S&P 500 companies having already reported this earnings season. Among these, over 74% have surpassed Wall Street’s expectations. Notable moves in individual stocks included Tesla’s 9% decline after it missed analysts’ Q3 earnings and revenue estimates and CEO Elon Musk’s warning about the Cybertruck’s cash flow. Conversely, Netflix shares surged 16% after exceeding third-quarter earnings estimates, largely due to strong ad-tier subscriptions. Beyond the tech sector, AT&T saw a 6% increase following better-than-expected Q3 results, while Blackstone faced an 8% decline due to a weaker-than-anticipated report. As the week concludes, all three major indexes are poised for losses, with the Nasdaq down 1.7%, the S&P 500 down 1.2%, and the Dow down 0.8%.

Data by Bloomberg

On Thursday, the stock market experienced a mixed day with varying sector performances. The overall market saw a decline of 0.85%. Some sectors, such as Communication Services (+0.33%) and Energy (-0.13%), showed modest movements, while others, like Consumer Discretionary (-2.20%) and Real Estate (-2.44%), faced significant declines. Financials (-1.25%) and Materials (-1.08%) also had notable losses, contributing to the overall negative trend. The Health Care (-0.96%), Utilities (-0.93%), Industrials (-0.90%), Consumer Staples (-0.77%), and Information Technology (-0.44%) sectors all experienced moderate decreases in their respective values. 

Currency Market Updates

In the latest currency market updates, the US dollar faced a significant retreat, driven by short-term US yield movements in response to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent speech. Powell’s comments hinted at a reluctance to raise interest rates unless compelling data suggests a sustained reversal in inflation trends. The EUR/USD pair notably gained 0.46%, building on earlier increases despite widening spreads between German bund and US Treasury yields. This development raised concerns about the potential economic repercussions of higher Treasury yields and the rapidly narrowing 2-10-year yield curve, reaching its tightest level since September 2022. These indicators are perceived as potential warnings for the US economy in the long term, particularly impacting interest rate-sensitive sectors. In the currency market, EUR/USD’s movements near the pivotal levels of October’s high and 23.6% of the July-October decline at 1.0640-43 became crucial.

Additionally, USD/JPY’s effort to reattain the 150 level faced challenges, retracting by 0.05% after a broader pullback in the US dollar following Powell’s speech. Despite this retreat, it was modest, as the decrease in 2-year Treasury yields and spreads over Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields was somewhat offset by an increase in 10-year yield spreads. The attractiveness of these spreads is maintained due to the gradual pace of policy normalization by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Meanwhile, the British pound experienced a 0.07% gain, albeit not reaching its earlier highs linked to 2-year gilts-Treasury yield spreads, as short-term US Treasury yields decreased in response to Powell’s statements. However, the pound still remains distant from recent recovery highs and key resistance levels compared to the EUR/USD pair, which surged to break its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. In the broader market, the US dollar index dropped by 0.34%, primarily due to the EUR/USD’s rise, but found support at the kijun level at 1.0594. For a more significant retreat to be signaled, the US dollar would need to close below the 30-day moving average at 105.87 and October’s low at 105.53, falling to a key Fibonacci level at 105.50.

Finally, it is noteworthy that Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and UK retail sales are anticipated as the final major data releases for the week. Moreover, risk sentiment and oil prices, particularly those of crude-related currencies, will be influenced by the Israel-Hamas conflict and its broader implications. Israel’s defense minister’s statement about troops entering Gaza is expected to have a significant impact on these markets.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Gains Momentum Despite Obstacles and Weak Dollar

The EUR/USD saw an upward trend on Thursday, aiming for its highest daily close in over a week, fueled by a weaker US dollar amidst market risk aversion. Nevertheless, it struggled to hold above the 1.0600 mark, signaling potential challenges ahead. Key events to watch include Germany’s upcoming Producer Price Index report and the European Central Bank meeting, with expectations of unchanged key rates. In the US, mixed economic data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s stance on rate stability, and concerns about inflation have contributed to the USD’s weakness, maintaining intrigue in the EUR/USD pairing.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the EUR/USD was slightly lower on Thursday, pushing towards the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading just above the middle band, suggesting the potential for another lower movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, indicating that the EUR/USD is still in neutral bias.

Resistance: 1.0616, 1.0672

Support: 1.0561, 1.0502

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Surge to Three-Month High as US Dollar Weakens Amid Middle East Tensions and Fed Chairman’s Speech

Gold prices remain on a bullish trajectory, with XAU/USD surpassing $1,970 per troy ounce, its highest level in three months. Initially, the US Dollar found support due to risk-averse sentiment driven by tensions in the Middle East and anticipation of Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of New York. However, the Greenback later weakened despite global equities’ poor performance and rising government bond yields, as investors interpreted Powell’s words to mean the Federal Reserve would avoid further rate hikes. Speculative interest turned against the USD during Powell’s speech, allowing XAU/USD to maintain its gains. Notably, the 2-year Treasury note yield dropped to 5.16% after reaching a multi-year peak of 5.25%.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, XAU/USD is moving higher on Thursday and able to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price of gold is moving just below the upper band, suggesting a possible continuation movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently registers at 79, indicating a bullish bias for the XAU/USD pair.

Resistance: $1,985, $2,002

Support: $1,973, $1,947

Economic Data

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].