Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
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In a turbulent market session, the Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory, partly driven by Meta’s underwhelming forecast, and Alphabet’s disappointing results added to the pressure. The S&P 500 briefly touched correction territory, and Wall Street grappled with concerns about the US economy’s outlook. Meanwhile, the US dollar displayed resilience on the back of strong Q3 GDP growth. In the currency market, the dollar saw fluctuations as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank were expected to make rate decisions. The Japanese yen faced the risk of intervention from the Ministry of Finance. The British pound and Australian dollar saw rebounds. Upcoming economic data releases are poised to continue influencing market dynamics.
Stock Market Updates
The Nasdaq Composite extended its decline into correction territory as Meta, the parent company of Facebook, reported a forecast that fell short of investors’ expectations. The tech-heavy index dropped by 1.76% on Thursday, closing at 12,595.61, falling below its 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 also dipped 1.18% to close at 4,137.23, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 0.76%, shedding 251.63 points to end at 32,784.30. The S&P 500 briefly entered correction territory during the session, marking a nearly 10% decline from its peak in July. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered correction territory, down more than 10% from its yearly high. Wall Street seemed unimpressed with recent big-tech earnings reports, with concerns about the weakening outlook for the US economy. Meta reported a beat on both top and bottom lines in the third quarter but noted advertising softness and concerns about cost control, leading to a 3.7% drop in Meta’s shares.
This decline in the stock market was influenced by a challenging trading session on Wednesday, driven by a 9.5% decline in Google-parent Alphabet, which had its Class-A shares experience their worst day since March 2020 after disappointing results in the Google cloud unit. The market’s recent correction since the summer has been partly attributed to rising bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield crossing 5% earlier in the month. Despite a slight decrease in the 10-year yield to 4.84% on Thursday, it did not halt the market sell-off. The market also didn’t receive a boost from the stronger-than-expected third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report, with the US GDP growing at a 4.9% annualized rate from July through September, surpassing the 4.7% forecast by economists. Furthermore, major earnings reports are on the horizon, with Amazon scheduled to release its results after the market’s close.
On Thursday, various sectors experienced fluctuating performance in the market. Real Estate and Utilities showed positive gains, with increases of 2.15% and 0.86%, respectively. However, Information Technology and Communication Services had a rough day, with notable declines of 2.17% and 2.58%. Overall, the broader market, represented by “All Sectors,” saw a decrease of 1.18%, while several sectors, including Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Consumer Staples, also ended in the red with declines ranging from 0.63% to 1.56%.
Currency Market Updates
In the latest currency market updates, the US dollar displayed resilience as it strengthened by 0.1%, despite a minor retreat in Treasury yields. This rally was prompted by robust US economic data, as Q3 GDP grew impressively at a 4.9% rate. However, the sales and core PCE figures fell short of expectations, with core PCE at 2.4% compared to 3.7% in the previous quarter. While September core capital goods orders exceeded forecasts, initial and continued jobless claims saw an increase, signaling potential challenges in finding new employment. Additionally, pending home sales surpassed expectations but remained notably weak. The EUR/USD pair experienced a 0.05% decline, with the dollar gaining momentum as both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) were expected to cease their rate hikes and potentially cut rates by mid-year. The USD/JPY pair rose by 0.1%, although it had retreated from its 2023 highs at 150.78 due to a decline in Treasury yields and market concerns about the Bank of Japan’s future policy decisions. Despite these fluctuations, the main perceived risk in the currency market is the possibility of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) resuming yen buying to prevent a breakout above 2022’s 32-year high at 151.94.
Meanwhile, the British pound saw a 0.2% increase in value after hitting its lowest level since October’s 1.2038 trend lows. This rebound came in the wake of a pullback in Treasury yields, despite concerning reports of CBI sales and reduced UK public inflation expectations. The Australian dollar also displayed resilience with a 0.3% increase, recovering from its lows in 2023. This recovery was attributed to a potential change in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Looking ahead, upcoming economic data releases include Tokyo core CPI for October, expected to remain steady at 2.5%, as well as German GDP and retail sales figures. Additionally, the US market will be closely monitoring data on personal income, spending, core PCE, and Michigan sentiment. These indicators will likely continue to influence the dynamics of the currency market in the days to come.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD Finds Support Despite Dovish ECB Stance and Robust US Growth Data
The EUR/USD pair hit a bottom at 1.0521, aligning with the previous week’s lows. This drop came as the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a more dovish stance, hinting at a possible terminal interest rate amidst economic concerns. Meanwhile, the US Dollar failed to capitalize on better-than-expected US GDP figures, as the Core PCE remained slightly below expectations and employment data raised concerns. Despite these dynamics, the fundamental factors suggest a mixed outlook for EUR/USD, with potential influences from upcoming US Core PCE data.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD consolidated on Thursday, approaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading between the middle and lower bands, indicating the potential for further downward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43, signaling that the EUR/USD is adopting a bearish bias.
Resistance: 1.0616, 1.0705
Support: 1.0500, 1.0405
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
XAU/USD Resilient as Economic Uncertainties Persist Amid ECB and US GDP Reports
Spot Gold initially surged to $1,993.44 an ounce before receding, influenced by key developments in global economics. The European Central Bank opted to keep rates unchanged due to the Euro Zone’s economic struggles, while the US Dollar strengthened following a robust Q3 GDP report. The uncertain economic outlook drove investors to seek safety in Gold, contributing to its rebound as stock markets faced headwinds.
According to technical analysis, XAU/USD is consolidating on Thursday and has the potential to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, which is currently squeezing. Presently, the price of gold is consolidating near the upper band, implying a possible downward consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57, indicating a neutral bias for the XAU/USD pair.
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Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Due to the end of U.S. Daylight Saving Time on November 6, 2023, the trading hours for certain products on MT4/MT5 will change.
On the same day, the server time will also change from GMT+3 to GMT+2.
Please refer to the table below outlining the affected instruments:
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On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed at 4,186.77, dipping below the critical 4,200 level, spurred by Alphabet’s disappointing earnings, tech stock declines, and rising bond yields. Microsoft bucked the trend with a 3% share price increase after strong earnings. Meanwhile, in the currency market, the US dollar gained ground due to higher Treasury yields, while major currencies like the euro and pound struggled. The yen faced a make-or-break moment against the dollar, and the Canadian dollar hit mid-March highs following the Bank of Canada’s cautious stance. Upcoming economic data releases and the ECB meeting are poised to impact the financial landscape further.
Stock Market Updates
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 experienced a significant decline, closing at 4,186.77, which was below a key level of 4,200. This drop of 1.43% marked the first time the S&P 500 had closed below this level since May, a development closely monitored by chart analysts. The downward trend was attributed to disappointing quarterly results from Alphabet, the parent company of Google, which saw its shares plummet more than 9% due to a miss in its cloud business performance, overshadowing otherwise strong revenue growth and earnings. The S&P 500’s communication services sector also took a hit, losing 5.9%. Other major tech giants, such as Apple and Amazon, saw their shares decline by 1.3% and 5.6%, respectively. Concerns also revolved around rising bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield spiking nearly 11 basis points to approximately 4.95%, causing jitters in the market and negatively impacting tech stocks.
Amid this turbulence, Microsoft stood out as an exception among tech stocks, experiencing a 3% increase in share prices after it posted fiscal first-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations. Additionally, other tech firms like IBM and Meta were set to announce their quarterly results in the afternoon. So far, approximately 29% of S&P 500 companies have reported their third-quarter earnings and an impressive 78% of these companies have surpassed analysts’ expectations. While corporate earnings remained a focal point for investors, the bond market’s rapid rise in yields, not witnessed since 1982, raised concerns about the future of the stock market.
On Wednesday, various sectors experienced different changes in their stock market performance. Overall, the All Sectors index decreased by 1.43%. The sectors of Utilities and Consumer Staples showed modest gains, with increases of 0.48% and 0.33%, respectively. On the other hand, several sectors saw declines: Energy (-0.16%), Financials (-0.30%), Health Care (-0.90%), Materials (-1.14%), Information Technology (-1.19%), Industrials (-1.27%), Real Estate (-2.07%), Consumer Discretionary (-2.40%), and Communication Services (-5.89%) all faced negative returns.
Currency Market Updates
In the latest currency market updates, the US dollar saw a 0.2% rise, primarily driven by risk-off sentiment and higher Treasury yields when compared to the yields of bunds, gilts, and JGBs, which favored the safety of the US currency. Notably, the EUR/USD pair struggled to gain momentum despite better-than-expected German Ifo data and the lowest MBA mortgage purchase reading in the US since 1995. Weak lending data in the eurozone raised concerns of a looming recession, while the US exhibited a strong rebound. Additionally, falling US stocks, a return of 10-year Treasury yields towards the 5% mark, and increasing oil prices all contributed to the dollar’s strength, particularly against currencies sensitive to market risks. The pair, EUR/USD, dropped by 0.2%, reaching its lowest level since the previous Friday. This decline followed a significant bearish rejection from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 55-day moving average resistance.
Furthermore, other major currencies were also impacted by the dollar’s resurgence. The British pound fell by 0.32%, with investors eagerly awaiting further UK inflation data that might confirm the Bank of England’s expectations of a significant year-end drop, potentially leading to interest rate cuts. USD/JPY briefly touched above the 150 mark for the third time in the current month, driven by the widening yield spreads between US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds (JGBs). The relatively shallow pullbacks observed in the market have placed the dollar in a critical make-or-break position, one that could challenge the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s tolerance for further yen depreciation towards the 32-year peak seen in 2022 at 151.94. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s readiness to continue quantitative easing to defend its current 1% 10-year yield cap also remains a crucial factor. In contrast, the Australian dollar experienced a brief rally following unexpectedly strong Q3 inflation figures but subsequently dropped by 0.72% due to risk-off market flows. Lastly, the Chinese yuan depreciated by 0.24% as concerns about local and central government limitations on risk-taking activities overshadowed the effects of modest fiscal stimulus announcements. The USD/CAD pair rose by 0.4% to reach its highest level since mid-March, following the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its interest rates and express concerns about the narrowing path to avoid a recession, raising questions about the comparative hawkishness of the Bank of Canada versus the Federal Reserve’s policy pricing. This week’s agenda includes the ECB meeting, which is widely expected to maintain the status quo, followed by significant US economic data releases, such as durable goods, Q3 GDP figures, core PCE data, jobless claims, and pending home sales.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD Slides Below 1.0600 as Strong US Dollar Dominates, Eyes on ECB and US Economic Data
The EUR/USD currency pair faced a second consecutive day of declines, dropping below the 1.0600 mark, driven by the strength of the US Dollar. Market attention now shifts to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming meeting and significant US economic data releases. Notably, the German IFO Business Survey displayed positive results, while the ECB is expected to maintain unchanged interest rates amid concerns about slowing inflation and subdued economic activity. Additionally, robust US economic data could further bolster the US Dollar, while any negative surprises may trigger a correction in the currency pair.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved lower on Wednesday, approaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading between the middle and lower bands, indicating the potential for further downward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39, signaling that the EUR/USD is adopting a bearish bias.
Resistance: 1.0616, 1.0705
Support: 1.0500, 1.0405
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
XAU/USD Climbs to $1,982 as Markets Weigh Economic Outlook Amidst Earnings Season and Central Bank Decisions
In Wednesday’s trading, XAU/USD made gains, reaching approximately $1,982 per troy ounce. As financial markets closely observe Wall Street’s earnings reports, the focus is on the economic outlook leading up to pivotal events on Thursday. Anticipations of robust U.S. economic growth, potentially at an annualized rate of 4.2% for the third quarter, are raising questions about interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s stance. Simultaneously, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain rates and adopt a cautious approach to future monetary policy. Earnings season is further impacting sentiment, with mixed results from major tech companies affecting stock indices, and rising government bond yields adding to market dynamics.
According to technical analysis, XAU/USD is consolidating on Wednesday and has the potential to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, which is currently squeezing. Presently, the price of gold is consolidating near the upper band, implying a possible downward consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 60, indicating a neutral bias for the XAU/USD pair.
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Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].