Last week, global financial markets saw a variety of movements, with US equity markets climbing thanks to strong earnings from tech giants like Tesla, Microsoft, and Alphabet.
These gains helped offset concerns from the US’s lower-than-expected GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 and higher inflation figures.
In contrast, Australia’s ASX 200 faced challenges, particularly influenced by a drop in BHP’s shares following its failed acquisition bid for Anglo American.
Recap of Last Week’s Economic Data
The US Durable Goods Orders showed a promising increase of 2.6% in March, exceeding analyst expectations. However, the US GDP growth did not meet the anticipated 2.5%, recording only a 1.6% increase quarter-over-quarter.
In Europe, the Eurozone Composite Flash PMI demonstrated its fastest growth in eleven months, reaching 51.4. Meanwhile, Australia’s inflation cooled to 3.6% year-over-year in the first quarter, though this was still above what many had forecasted.
What Will Happen This Week?
This upcoming week holds several key economic events:
Tuesday, April 30
Insights into China’s manufacturing sector will be updated with the release of the NBS and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs. Additionally, first-quarter GDP data from Germany and the broader Eurozone will help gauge the pace of economic recovery in these regions.
The China NBS and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs are closely monitored as indicators of the economic health of China’s manufacturing sector, which plays a crucial role in the global economy.
A positive reading can boost investor confidence in China’s market stability and growth prospects, potentially lifting global markets, especially in sectors reliant on manufacturing and exports.
Conversely, a contraction can raise concerns about slowing economic growth in China, affecting commodity prices and global supply chains. The Caixin PMI, in particular, is noted for its sensitivity to market risk sentiment.
Wednesday, May 1
New Zealand’s unemployment rate will shed light on the economic conditions in the region. In the US, the ADP Employment report and Consumer Confidence Index are expected to provide vital information about the labor market and consumer sentiment.
Thursday, May 2
The US will release its ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, offering further clarity on the manufacturing sector and job market. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will also announce its decision on interest rates, which is likely to remain unchanged due to ongoing inflation concerns.
An unexpected rate hike could strengthen the USD and lead to a drop in stock prices, whereas signals of future rate cuts could do the opposite.
Friday, May 3
The US Non-Farm Payrolls will be closely watched as an essential indicator of the country’s economic health and could impact the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions in the coming months.
Strong job growth will suggest a robust economic environment, potentially leading the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy, which could bolster the USD and impact bond yields.
Conversely, weak job growth might raise concerns about economic stagnation, possibly leading to lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar.
Saturday, May 4
The week will conclude with the US ISM Services PMI, providing a snapshot of the service sector’s status, which dominates the US economy.
As with key events like these, this week’s economic events are likely to cause market fluctuations. Traders should pay close attention to the releases and central bank activities, as these could sway market expectations regarding future monetary policies, especially in the US.
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Gold prices saw a modest increase on Friday, with spot gold climbing 0.3% to $2,339.32 per ounce by 0640 GMT, and U.S. gold futures also rising 0.4% to $2,351.20. This slight uptick comes as markets anticipate the release of key U.S. inflation data.
Weekly Gold Price Dynamics
Despite Friday’s increase, gold is poised for its first weekly fall in six weeks, with a 2.3% drop. This marks the most substantial weekly decrease since the beginning of December. The easing of concerns regarding a major escalation in the Middle East crisis has contributed to this weekly decline. Gold prices have receded nearly $100 from the all-time high of $2,431.29 reached on April 12.
Gold prices experienced a notable drop earlier in the week and have since remained relatively stable. While gold prices are typically influenced by factors such as yields and the U.S. dollar, the current market appears to be insulated by China’s reserve accumulation.
U.S. Economic Data and Fed Stance
Recent data indicated that the U.S. economy grew more slowly than expected in the first quarter, yet an uptick in inflation echoes the sentiment of Federal Reserve members, suggesting the central bank is not in a rush to cut interest rates. Higher interest rates traditionally diminish the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold.
The US economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in Q1, while an acceleration in inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before September. Here's a look at the stories shaping global markets https://t.co/zK55mp59jipic.twitter.com/8NKkkUeCQ6
Attention is now shifting to the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for March, due later on Friday, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. According to IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong, an acceleration in the PCE figures could temper expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Fed within the year.
Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Movements
In the metals market, spot silver experienced a 0.7% increase to $27.61 per ounce, while spot platinum rose by 1.2% to $925.40. Palladium also saw a gain of 1.5% to $988.63. Despite these increases, all three metals were on a trajectory for a weekly decline.
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With forex brokerages a dime a dozen these days, it’s easy to overlook the importance of a good broker. With each broker touting a variety of selling points and gimmicks, traders today are overwhelmed from information overload – making them especially susceptible to exploitation by scammers.
While not entirely fool-proof, traders equipped with comprehensive market knowledge are significantly less vulnerable to fraud. Which is why today we explore the case of Michael Philip Atkins – a 51-year-old American man who was extradited to Singapore after being arrested for fraudulent trading.
Atkins, who was recently sentenced in Singapore, deceived investors out of approximately $13.2 million by misrepresenting the success of their investments.
How Did the Scam Work?
Michael Philip Atkins and his company, Aureus Capital, is a textbook example of how a forex trading can be used as a pretext for a scam.
The Setup
Aureus Capital was ostensibly set up to offer leveraged foreign exchange trading services. From April 2013 to July 2014, the company attracted clients with the promise of managing their funds to generate substantial profits through forex trading.
Clients entered into agreements where they would share 40% to 50% of the profits with Aureus, while bearing all the losses.
The Deception
To begin trading, clients were instructed to transfer funds directly into a specified bank account. Over the course of operation, this account amassed more than S$13.2 million from hopeful investors. However, the majority of these funds were not used for their intended purpose.
Of the S$18 million collected, Aureus Capital funneled more than S$14.7 million into other channels, including hefty payments to its directors, leaving a minuscule portion for actual trading.
Misrepresentation
To maintain the illusion of profitability, Aureus Capital issued weekly statements to its clients. These statements purportedly reflected profitable trades and a healthy investment portfolio.
In reality, these statements were grossly misleading as only about $1.25 million was ever actually used for trading activities, and these operations were, in fact, loss-making.
The Collapse
The scheme began to unravel in mid-2014 when Aureus Capital announced it was halting trading to “acquire a banking license.”
This was a diversion. When clients requested withdrawals of their funds, they were stalled with promises of refunds and rebranding. Eventually, the company became uncontactable, leading to a police alert by the distressed investors.
Legal Actions
Atkins initially evaded legal consequences by fleeing to the United States but was eventually extradited back to Singapore due to international law enforcement cooperation, marked by an Interpol red notice.
His extradition and subsequent legal proceedings eventually led to a prison sentence of three years and three months.
Global Incidents of Forex Fraud
Sadly, Atkins’ case is not an isolated incident. Multi-million forex scams are not unique or rare – in a field where accountability often is slighted,
The Crown Forex Scam
In Switzerland, Crown Forex declared bankruptcy in 2009 after being investigated for financial irregularities.
Investors around the globe lost around $79 million due to the firm’s illicit activities, including the misuse of investor funds for personal gains and operational expenses rather than actual forex trading.
Refco Scandal
Another high-profile forex fraud was the collapse of Refco in 2005, a company that concealed $430 million in bad debts from its investors.
The scandal not only led to significant financial losses for traders but also highlighted severe lapses in corporate governance and risk management.
Proliferation of Forex Scams
Fraudulent practices in forex range from Ponzi schemes to sophisticated “Robot” scamming, where fake automated trading systems are touted for their supposed high returns.
Additionally, “signal seller” scams involve individuals who, after collecting fees for trading tips, disappear without delivering any real value.
The allure of easy money can be tempting, but these examples serve as a cautionary tale about the risks of engaging with unregulated entities or those promising unrealistic returns.
Identifying and Avoiding Scams
The key to avoiding such pitfalls is education and vigilance. Traders must be wary of brokers promising high profits with no risks, and the absence of regulatory oversight.
Common red flags include high-pressure sales tactics often found in boiler room scams, unprofessional practices like unsolicited cold calls, and the use of unfamiliar trading platforms.
The Importance of Regulation
But often times there are simply too many variables to take into account when evaluating these brokers. That’s where regulation comes in.
See – regulation is a critical factor in the trustworthiness of a forex broker. A regulated broker is more likely to offer transparent operations and fair trading conditions.
Here’s a look at the steps forex brokerages must undertake before acquiring a license and the protections these regulations afford to investors:
Capital Requirements
To ensure financial stability and the ability to withstand market volatility, regulatory bodies often require forex brokers to maintain a minimum level of operating capital. This requirement protects clients by ensuring that the brokerage can meet its financial obligations, particularly during periods of unexpected losses
KYC and Background Checks
Regulatory authorities conduct thorough background checks on the brokerage’s owners and key staff members. This helps prevent individuals with a history of fraudulent activities or financial malpractice from running or being involved in forex brokerage operations.
Operational Compliance
Forex brokers must comply with operational standards that include fair execution of trades, transparent pricing, and the proper handling of customer funds.
Compliance is monitored through regular audits and reporting requirements.
Segregation of Funds
To protect investors, regulations often require that client funds be held in segregated accounts separate from the brokerage’s operating funds.
This prevents the misuse of client money and ensures that the funds are available for withdrawal at all times
Risk Disclosure
Brokers must provide detailed and clear information about the potential risks associated with forex trading.
This includes the risks of leveraged trading, the volatility of the forex market, and the potential for loss. Accurate risk disclosure ensures that clients make informed financial decisions.
Protections in Place for Investors
Regulations also protects traders by setting in place certain safeguards to ensure accountability by brokerages.
Investor Compensation Schemes
Many regulatory jurisdictions offer compensation schemes that protect investors if a forex broker fails. These schemes can reimburse investors for losses up to a certain amount if the broker becomes insolvent or ceases trading.
Perhaps the most well known example of an investor compensation scheme is the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) in the United Kingdom. This scheme acts as a safety net for clients of authorized financial services firms.
Ever had that sinking feeling that you may have been scammed? 😲
— Financial Services Compensation Scheme (@FSCS) March 18, 2024
If a firm fails or goes bankrupt, the FSCS can compensate customers. For investment claims, including those related to forex trading, the FSCS covers up to £85,000 per eligible person, per firm.
This protection includes investments, insurance policies, insurance broking (for policies underwritten), and deposits.
Dispute Resolution
Regulated forex brokers are required to have in place effective procedures for addressing customer complaints and disputes.
This often includes access to an independent ombudsman or a financial dispute resolution service, which can offer a way to resolve issues without the need for costly legal action.
Transparency and Fair Practices
Regulation enforces strict rules on marketing and what brokers can promise to potential clients. It ensures that all advertising material is honest and not misleading, providing traders with realistic expectations about the outcomes of forex trading.
Regular Monitoring and Reporting
Regulated brokers are subject to ongoing monitoring by their regulatory body, which includes regular reporting on their financial health and compliance with trading practices.
This continuous oversight helps to maintain a safe trading environment for all participants
A good broker like VT Markets can significantly reduce the risk of falling victim to forex scams.
Regulated by multiple regulatory bodies, such as Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) as well as Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa, VT Markets strictly adheres to regulatory standards, transparency in operations, and robust educational resources.
Such resources empower traders with the knowledge to spot scams. This includes providing detailed information about trading conditions and the risks involved in forex trading.
Nevertheless, education remains the trader’s best defense, ensuring they are equipped to identify and avoid potential scams.
Copper prices have been inching closer to the $10,000 per metric ton mark, reflecting a broader uptrend among base metals driven by increasing investment flows.
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), the price for three-month copper reached $9,965.50 per ton, showing a 1% increase, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported a 1.5% rise in their most-traded June copper contract, reaching 80,500 yuan ($11,108.96) a ton.
Base Metal Prices Rise Alongside Copper
The uplift in copper prices is echoed across other base metals. LME aluminium saw an increase of 0.2%, priced at $2,568.50 a ton.
Nickel followed suit with a 0.2% rise to $19,190, and zinc prices increased by 1% to $2,877.50. Similarly, lead and tin prices showed modest gains, with lead up by 0.5% to $2,219.50 and tin by 0.2% to $32,950.
On the SHFE, gains were seen with aluminium up 1.1% to 20,555 yuan a ton, nickel rising by 0.4% to 143,120 yuan, and zinc climbing 1.5% to 22,880 yuan. Tin showed an increase of 2.3% to 261,800 yuan, and lead was up by 0.8% to 17,210 yuan.
Low Import Demand in China
The recent peak in LME copper prices nearly reached a two-year high, touching $9,979 a ton. This upward trajectory places LME copper on a path for its fourth consecutive week of gains.
In contrast, the Yangshan copper premium rebounded to $2.5 a ton, though this remains considerably lower than the $67.50 recorded at the start of the year, suggesting a muted appetite for importing copper into China.
LME Aluminium Set for Possible Downturn
On the downside, LME aluminium appears poised for a downturn, marking a potential end to six consecutive weeks of gains, with a 3.9% decrease this week alone. This could represent the worst weekly performance since early January. Additionally, LME tin experienced a significant drop of 7.4% week-on-week, marking the most considerable decline since September 2023.
These trends suggest a mixed outlook for base metals. Copper’s surge towards the $10,000 threshold could be tempered by geopolitical tensions or shifts in economic policies, reminiscent of the volatility observed during the 2011 commodity boom.
Conversely, the decline in tin and aluminium might hint at underlying weaknesses in specific sectors, potentially linked to a slowdown in industrial demand or adjustments in supply chains.
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Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has ascended to a more than five-month peak, increasing by 4 basis points to 0.93%, the highest since November 3, and settled at 0.925%.
🇯🇵 Japan's five-year government bond yields climb to the highest since April 2011 ahead of the BoJ interest rate decision#bonds#Japan
The two-year yield, reacting to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy, rose to its highest since July 2009, at 0.315%. This movement reflects anticipation of the BoJ’s policy meeting’s conclusion, where rates are expected to remain steady.
BoJ’s Likely Conclusion
The central bank, in its meeting concluding today, is anticipated to maintain interest rates and project that inflation will hover near its 2% target in the upcoming years. This forecast is based on the expectation of steady wage increases. Market participants are especially attuned to any indications from the BoJ concerning the yen, which has been weakening, recently surpassing 155 per dollar.
Although the BOJ does not directly manage the currency, the yen’s devaluation presents a challenge to the bank’s inflation outlook.
There is speculation that Governor Kazuo Ueda might adopt a hawkish tone or the BoJ could signal a reduction in its bond purchasing program, currently committed to buying 6 trillion yen worth of JGBs monthly.
Rising Cost of Oil
The combination of a weakening yen and climbing oil prices has amplified inflation expectations. The break-even inflation rate reached record highs this week, revealing heightened market predictions for future inflation.
These expectations play a dominant role in the valuation of JGBs and are a key metric for investors.
Following the BoJ’s move away from negative interest rates in March, the yen has remained pressured due to low yields and a significant disparity with U.S. rates. Even though ten-year yields have approximately doubled this year, they are still just shy of the 1% threshold, which was the BoJ’s previous target cap until its policy shift in March.
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As the trading week closes, Chicago wheat futures are on track to record their largest weekly uptick since 2021, fuelled by persistent dry conditions in key wheat-growing areas of Russia and the United States. These adverse weather patterns are stoking fears of a tightened supply landscape.
Corn and soybeans also saw upward movements. Corn is nearing its most dominant weekly rise in nine months, while soybeans are experiencing their first weekly increase after a month-long downtrend.
SEE: Wheat prices see significant gains on VT Markets trading app.
Weather Concerns
The most actively traded wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) dipped slightly by 0.1% to $6.19-3/4 a bushel early in the trading day. In contrast, corn prices ticked up by 0.1% to $4.52-1/4 per bushel, and soybeans advanced marginally by a quarter of a cent to $11.80-1/4 per bushel.
Dry conditions in certain regions of Russia and the U.S., major wheat producers have heightened market sensitivity to spring weather developments, prompting traders to reassess their positions. While southern Russia is expected to see scant rainfall until early May, forecasts indicate potential moisture relief for the U.S. Plains within the week.
Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Prices Soar
For the week, wheat has surged by 9.3%, marking its steepest increase since March 2022. Corn has ascended by 4.3%, its most robust performance since July of the previous year, and soybeans have climbed by 1.1%.
The European Commission recently revised downward its forecast for the European Union’s main wheat crop for the 2024/25 season to the lowest point in four years, now expecting a significant reduction in planted area.
Global Supply Adjustments
In terms of global supply adjustments, the European Commission has reduced its usable production forecast for common wheat to 120.2 million metric tons, down from last month’s prediction and marking the lowest since 2020.
The dry and hot conditions in northern Argentina could prompt the Buenos Aires grains exchange to lower its estimate for the 2023/24 soybean harvest, currently projected at 51 million metric tons.
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee says maize production could be down by 20% compared to last year.https://t.co/cGt9Dla3cY
Additionally, South African farmers are projected to harvest 18.5% less maize this season compared to the previous year, according to the government’s Crop Estimates Committee.
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Japan’s Nikkei share average recently saw a downturn, dropping 2.16% to close at 37,628.48, following a three-day upward streak. This slide was led primarily by losses in the technology sector, while the market braces for the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy announcement.
SEE: Nikkei 225 plummets as seen on VT Markets trading app.
On Thursday, the broader Topix index also dipped by 1.74% to 2,663.53, reflecting a general cautious mood across the market. Specifically, tech companies like Tokyo Electron and Advantest saw declines of 3.48% and 1.71%, respectively, pulling down the tech-heavy index.
Other major companies like Shin-Etsu Chemical and SoftBank Group also saw their shares drop, and even Toyota Motor fell 3.34% despite the yen reaching a 34-year low.
Yen Above 155 per Dollar
As noted by VT Markets, the USD/JPY pair rose above 155 yen per dollar, a weakened level not seen since June 1990. This dip in the yen’s value has stirred talk of possible government intervention in the currency market, reminiscent of past instances where significant currency shifts led to official action.
Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the Bank of Japan’s intention to raise its benchmark interest rate if underlying inflation rises toward its 2% target https://t.co/nSH3zhagcB
The focus is now turning to the Bank of Japan and what Governor Kazuo Ueda might say about interest rate changes. The Nikkei Volatility Index’s recent peak suggests that investors are feeling quite uncertain, which is not surprising given the current global economic cues.
Canon Stock Dips, Daiichi Sankyo Rises
In the tech sector, firms like Canon dropped 8.42% after reporting a profit forecast that didn’t meet market expectations. However, it’s not all gloomy news in the market. Daiichi Sankyo rose after announcing a plan to buy back up to 200 billion yen worth of its shares.
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Britain’s FTSE 100 stock index saw notable activity with miner Anglo American (AAL) surging 12.5% to a nine-month high following a buyout offer from BHP Group.
SEE: FTSE 100 sees upswing today on the VT Markets trading app
BHP proposed acquiring Anglo American in a deal valued at 31.1 billion pounds ($38.91 billion), aiming to establish the world’s largest copper miner. This acquisition would position BHP with approximately 10% of the global copper output. Despite this positive development for Anglo American, BHP’s UK-listed stock experienced a decrease of 2.7%.
$BHP Group has offered to BUY Anglo American for $38.8 billion in an all-share deal.
The proposal requires Anglo to divest its stakes in Anglo American Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore.
This potential merger would unite significant copper and iron ore assets, including the world's…
Fiona Cincotta, a senior market analyst at City Index, commented on the strategic benefits of the deal, noting BHP’s enhanced access to significant copper and iron ore resources, critical for future growth.
— Fiona Cincotta City Index (@FionaCityIndex) April 24, 2024
Perhaps echoing this sentiment, this perspective helped catalyse the rise in Anglo American’s share price, reflecting market optimism about the long-term benefits of the merger.
The broader market responded positively, with the FTSE 350 industrial metal miners index climbing by 1.7%. The blue-chip FTSE 100 itself rose by 0.6% to 8,083.90, reaching a peak of 8,098.14 at one point. Cincotta highlighted the composition of the FTSE 100, noting its fewer tech stocks compared to U.S. indices and the advantageous impact of a weaker pound on the UK index.
Influence of Other Markets and Economic Signals
In contrast, other European markets experienced declines, and Wall Street was anticipated to face challenges following a negative outlook from social media giant Meta Platforms. These broader market movements underline the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the influence of multinational corporate forecasts on investor sentiment.
Earnings Driving Index Growth
Several blue-chip firms reported earnings that exceeded market expectations. AstraZeneca’s shares increased by 5.1% after announcing quarterly revenue and profits that surpassed estimates. Similarly, Unilever enjoyed a 4.8% rise after posting better-than-expected sales growth for the first quarter. Barclays also saw a 4.5% increase in its shares, despite reporting a drop in first-quarter profits, suggesting that investor expectations had been set even lower.
The mid-cap FTSE 250 index, however, did not mirror the gains of the FTSE 100, dropping by 0.2%. This decline was partly due to WH Smith, which fell by 7% after indicating a slowdown in growth at the beginning of the second half of the year, particularly in its airport retail operations.
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The USD/JPY pair has surpassed the 155.00 mark, a level highlighted by ex-Deputy Finance Minister Michio Watanabe as pivotal.
SEE: USD/JPY breaks the 155.00 level on the VT Markets trading app
This move comes as the market anticipates key economic data from the U.S., such as GDP and PCE figures. Historically, such breaches have led to a rise in the pair, which might continue unless Japan’s Ministry of Finance steps in. In the past, interventions by the Ministry have caused rapid declines in USD/JPY.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is maintaining a watchful eye on inflation trends, as stated by Governor Kazuo Ueda, with current readings still below their targets.
Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda has said the central bank may raise interest rates again if the yen's declines significantly push up inflation. https://t.co/EZIrTGbicP
With the upcoming BoJ meeting, traders should look for clues in the medium-term inflation forecasts. A shift from previous dovish policies could impact the yen’s trajectory, especially in the context of rising oil prices that exacerbate economic pressures in Japan.
Meta’s Performance and Future Outlook
Meta Platforms, Inc. recently reported earnings that exceeded expectations, with a Q1 EPS of $4.71 and revenue of $36.46 billion. Despite these strong results, a cautious Q2 revenue forecast between $36.5 billion and $39 billion, which falls short of the $38.24 billion midpoint estimate, led to a 15% decline in Meta’s stock.
To keep a rally that’s added nearly $350 billion in market value going, Meta must show it can maintain such growth when it reports earnings https://t.co/QK0solFkq7
Additionally, Meta’s CFO Susan Li noted that the full-year expenses are now projected to be between $96 billion and $99 billion, reflecting increases mainly due to infrastructure and legal costs. This adjustment might influence investor confidence, as increased expenses could weigh on profitability.
Strategic investments in AI, AR, and VR technologies are a focal point for Meta, spearheaded by CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Despite these sectors not yet being major revenue drivers, their development is essential for long-term growth. Comparatively, Meta’s stock has outperformed Google’s over the last year, which may be attributed to better market positioning and strategic initiatives such as dividends and stock buybacks.
Recent challenges, such as controversies around Meta’s AI chatbot, underscore the risks associated with new technology ventures. Nonetheless, Meta’s initiative to open-source its Horizon operating system for AR/VR headsets, and partnerships with firms like Lenovo and Microsoft, could broaden its influence in the AR/VR arena.
A big maybe in the air is the potential U.S. ban on TikTok – which could also provide a boost to Meta, as it might attract users and creators to its platforms, such as Instagram, further enhancing its market position in the digital space.
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