Gold prices in Pakistan fell on Monday, based on data compiled by FXStreet. Gold was priced at PKR 39,269.07 per gram, down from PKR 40,379.37 on Friday. Gold also dropped to PKR 458,026.80 per tola from PKR 470,977.10 per tola on Friday. Other listed rates were PKR 392,691.70 for 10 grams and PKR 1,221,406.00 per troy ounce.

Gold Price Conversion And Local Rates

FXStreet converts international gold prices into Pakistani rupees using the USD/PKR rate and local measurement units. Rates are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference, as local prices may differ slightly. Central banks are the largest holders of gold. World Gold Council data says they added 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual total since records began. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and it can also move against risk assets such as shares. Its price can change due to geopolitics, recession fears, interest rates, and shifts in the US Dollar because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). Given the ongoing geopolitical instability in early 2026, we see gold’s role as a safe-haven asset becoming more critical. Any sudden flare-up in global tensions will likely drive capital into gold, creating sharp price increases. We believe traders should consider using call options to capitalize on this potential upside while limiting their initial risk.

Key Drivers And Trading Considerations

The direction of the US Dollar remains a pivotal factor, tied directly to the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. After the cycle of rate adjustments we observed through 2025, there is now significant uncertainty about the path forward, which creates trading opportunities. This environment suggests that using futures contracts could be an effective way to speculate on price movements following key economic announcements. We must pay close attention to the immense and steady demand from central banks, which continues to provide a solid floor for gold prices. Looking back, we saw them add a near-record 1,037 tonnes to their reserves in 2023, and this trend has shown little sign of slowing. This consistent buying pressure makes aggressive short-selling or buying put options a particularly risky strategy in the current market. Gold’s inverse correlation with equities is especially relevant now, following the significant stock market gains of 2024 and 2025. With major indices still near their highs, a market correction remains a distinct possibility. We can use gold derivatives as a direct hedge to insulate our portfolios from a potential downturn in these riskier assets. Inflation continues to be a primary concern for the market, supporting gold as a hedge against depreciating currencies. Even though interest rates are higher than they were a few years ago, the persistent erosion of purchasing power makes holding gold attractive. This fundamental pressure supports a long-term positive outlook on the precious metal. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in India fell on Monday, based on data compiled by FXStreet. Gold was priced at INR 13,251.32 per gram, down from INR 13,623.12 on Friday. The price per tola dropped to INR 154,550.80 from INR 158,897.30 on Friday. Listed rates were INR 132,506.20 for 10 grams and INR 412,136.80 per troy ounce.

How Fxstreet Calculates Indias Gold Prices

FXStreet derives India’s gold prices by converting international prices using USD/INR and applying local measurement units. Prices are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, and local rates may vary slightly. Gold has historically been used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. It is also used in jewellery and is often treated as a safe-haven asset and as protection against inflation and currency weakness. Central banks hold the most gold. They added 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council, the highest yearly purchase since records began. Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move opposite to risk assets. Prices are influenced by geopolitics, recession fears, interest rates, and the US Dollar because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

Drivers Behind The Latest Gold Pullback

The recent pullback in gold is notable after the strong rally we experienced through most of 2025. This dip could represent simple profit-taking or the beginning of a more significant correction. We should question if the factors that drove prices to these record highs are now losing momentum. The US Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone at their March meeting is a key driver, especially after last week’s US inflation data came in at 3.1%, slightly above expectations. This has caused the US Dollar Index to strengthen to 105.5, its highest level this year. As a non-yielding asset priced in dollars, gold faces pressure when the dollar and interest rate expectations rise. We are also noting a shift in the institutional buying that supported the 2025 rally. The World Gold Council’s latest report showed that central bank net purchases fell by 12% in the final quarter of 2025, a significant slowdown after nearly two years of record buying. This suggests a major source of demand may be weakening for the first time since the inflationary period of 2024. For traders anticipating a further slide, buying put options offers a direct way to position for a price decline. A more conservative strategy is a bear put spread, which involves buying a higher-strike put and selling a lower-strike one. This approach lowers the upfront cost of the position while defining the risk. However, implied volatility in gold options has ticked up, suggesting the market is bracing for a larger move without being certain of the direction. This environment makes strategies like long straddles, which involve buying both a call and a put option, potentially useful. Such a position would profit from a significant price swing in either direction over the coming weeks. We must also watch the equity markets, as the S&P 500 has climbed 4% this quarter, diverting capital from safe-haven assets. Throughout 2025, we saw gold benefit from fears of an economic slowdown that never fully materialized. Now, with risk appetite returning, gold’s appeal as a safe store of value is being tested. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Silver (XAG/USD) fell for a fifth session, trading near $65.60 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict have raised inflation concerns and supported tighter central bank policy. Reports say US President Donald Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face possible strikes on energy infrastructure. Washington is also reported to be weighing a ground operation to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, a major oil export site.

Iran Threatens Strait Closure

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would fully shut the strait if the US moves ahead. Tehran also threatened to target US and Israeli assets in the region, including energy, IT, and desalination facilities. Reuters reported Saudi Aramco cut crude shipments to Asian buyers for a second month in April as disruption through the Strait of Hormuz affects flows. Supplies are being limited to Arab Light crude from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, tightening input supply for Asian refiners and limiting output. Traders increased bets on a possible Federal Reserve rate rise by year-end due to inflation risks. The ECB, BOE, and BOJ left rates unchanged last week, while indicating they could tighten further if inflation remains persistent. We are seeing the after-effects of the US-Iran conflict from early 2025, which saw Brent crude surge past $110 a barrel. While prices have since retreated to the mid-$80s as of March 2026, the geopolitical risk premium has not vanished entirely. This suggests acquiring long-dated call options on crude oil futures could be a prudent hedge against any renewed escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Strategy Implications For Markets

The inflation fears from last year’s oil shock did materialize, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance through 2025. However, the latest data shows US CPI has cooled to 2.6% year-over-year, leading us to believe the Fed’s tightening cycle is over. Consequently, positioning for a flatter yield curve through interest rate futures seems logical, anticipating that long-term rates may fall faster than short-term ones. Silver’s drop to the mid-$60s in 2025 was a direct result of traders pricing in the central bank hawkishness we saw unfold. With the Federal Funds Rate holding steady at the 5.50% mark for the last two quarters, silver has been unable to gain significant traction as a non-yielding asset. We see an opportunity in buying slightly out-of-the-money call options on XAG/USD, as any signal of a future rate cut could cause a sharp upward repricing. We recall that implied volatility spiked during the Hormuz ultimatum in 2025, with the VIX index touching levels above 35. It has since collapsed and is now trading in the much calmer 15-17 range as of late March 2026. This presents a favorable entry point to buy VIX call spreads, offering a cost-effective way to protect portfolios from a future shock. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in Malaysia fell on Monday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at MYR 553.22 per gram, down from MYR 568.88 on Friday. The price per tola dropped to MYR 6,452.65 from MYR 6,635.29 on Friday. FXStreet listed MYR 5,532.20 for 10 grams and MYR 17,207.97 per troy ounce.

How FXStreet Calculates Malaysia Gold Prices

FXStreet produces Malaysia gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/MYR rate and local units. Prices are updated daily at publication time and are for reference, with local rates able to differ slightly. Gold has been used historically as a store of value and a medium of exchange. It is also used in jewellery and is often linked to demand during market stress, inflation, and currency weakness. Central banks hold large gold reserves and bought 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council. The report said this was the highest annual purchase since records began, with emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey increasing reserves. Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move opposite to risk assets such as equities. Its price can also react to geopolitical events, recession fears, and changes in interest rates, and is quoted globally in US dollars as XAU/USD.

Fed Policy And Dollar Strength Weigh On Gold

We are seeing gold prices pull back, as shown by the drop in Malaysian Ringgit terms today, March 23, 2026. This is largely a reaction to a strengthening US Dollar, which has seen the Dollar Index (DXY) climb back above the 105 mark for the first time this year. Because gold is priced internationally in US dollars, this currency strength is creating a direct headwind. This market movement is being driven by the US Federal Reserve’s more cautious tone on inflation from its meeting last week. Traders are now pushing back their forecasts for the first interest rate cut, with market consensus shifting from June towards the later part of the third quarter of 2026. This expectation for higher interest rates for a longer period makes a non-yielding asset like gold less appealing to hold. The Fed’s caution is supported by recent data, as the February 2026 inflation report showed consumer prices rose by 3.1%, halting the steady decline we witnessed through most of 2025. This surprise uptick in inflation has made the market nervous about a swift return to monetary easing. It suggests that the path for gold could be challenging in the coming weeks. For derivative traders, this outlook makes buying put options an interesting strategy to consider for potential further price declines. Alternatively, selling call options or implementing bear call spreads could be used to generate income if we believe gold prices will struggle to break through recent highs. Given the uncertainty, we expect volatility to increase around upcoming economic data releases. However, we must remember the underlying support from central bank demand, which set purchasing records back in 2022 and remained robust throughout 2024 and 2025. While recent World Gold Council data for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed a slight slowdown in buying, any geopolitical instability could quickly trigger gold’s safe-haven status. This makes aggressive short-selling a risky proposition without careful management. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD fell for a second day on Monday in the Asian session, moving back towards 0.5800. The pair stayed under pressure as rising geopolitical tensions supported the US dollar. The New Zealand dollar weakened after a disappointing Q4 GDP report, a dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of New Zealand’s credit outlook. These factors kept the bias tilted to further losses.

Technical Breakdown Signals

The pair has broken below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.5865–0.5870 and has failed to regain it. The 200-day SMA has started to slope down, while MACD remains below the signal line and under zero with a slightly negative histogram. RSI is near 41 and below the 50 midpoint, suggesting bearish pressure without oversold conditions. Support sits at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5776, and a daily close below it may open a move to the 100% retracement low at 0.5581. Resistance is at the 50.0% retracement level at 0.5837, with the 200-day SMA reinforcing that area. A break above could target the 38.2% retracement level at 0.5897. Looking back at the analysis from early 2025, we can see the bearish perspective was well-founded as concerns over a dovish RBNZ and weak growth did push the pair lower. The forecast proved correct when the NZD/USD tested support near the 0.5776 level and eventually bottomed out later in the year. Those geopolitical tensions mentioned kept the US Dollar strong for much of 2025.

Shift In Macro Backdrop

The situation has now changed considerably as we move through the first quarter of 2026. Last week’s data showed New Zealand’s Q4 2025 GDP grew by a surprising 0.5%, beating expectations and signaling a more robust economic footing than a year ago. This contrasts sharply with the dismal GDP figures we were analyzing back in early 2025. Furthermore, with US inflation now trending down to 2.9% in the latest February 2026 reading, pressure is easing on the Federal Reserve, softening the US Dollar’s dominance. The NZD/USD pair has since reclaimed the critical 200-day moving average, which now sits as support around 0.5910. This former resistance level breaking suggests the bearish momentum from last year has faded. Given this shift, derivative traders should adjust their strategy away from the outright bearish positions of 2025. We believe purchasing call options with strike prices above 0.6000 could be an effective way to capitalize on potential upside over the coming weeks. This allows traders to benefit from a rising spot price while defining their maximum risk to the premium paid. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 99.65 in early European hours on Monday, moving above 99.50. It rose amid Middle East tensions and after the US Federal Reserve kept policy steady with a hawkish tone. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said “threats and terror” were strengthening unity after US President Donald Trump warned he would “obliterate” Iranian power plants. Trump set a 48-hour deadline for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened.

Geopolitical Risk Supports The Dollar

Iran’s military said it would completely shut the strait if the US targets Iranian energy facilities. The prospect of further conflict supported demand for the US Dollar. Crude oil and energy prices rose as the US-Israeli war with Iran escalated. Higher energy costs revived inflation concerns, which can lead markets to expect tighter US monetary policy and support the DXY. Markets are also watching US data for direction. The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March is due on Tuesday, and a weaker reading could weigh on the DXY. The strong upward movement in the US Dollar Index is a clear signal driven by both safe-haven demand and interest rate expectations. We are seeing a classic flight to safety as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate over the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, fueled by resurgent inflation fears from rising energy prices, is only adding to the dollar’s strength.

Positioning Ideas For Dollar Oil And Volatility

Given this environment, we should consider buying call options on the US dollar, particularly against currencies with more dovish central banks like the Euro and the Japanese Yen. With the Fed funds rate holding firm above 5%, the significant interest rate differential continues to make long-dollar positions attractive through the carry trade. This rate gap provides a fundamental tailwind for the dollar’s value. The direct threat to the Strait of Hormuz puts oil prices at the center of this crisis, and we must position accordingly. Around 21 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, representing about 20% of global consumption, so any disruption will cause a severe price shock. Call options on WTI and Brent crude futures are a direct way to trade the risk of further escalation and a potential closure of this critical waterway. This level of market uncertainty also suggests that volatility is likely to increase across asset classes in the coming weeks. Looking back, we saw a similar dynamic in early 2022 when geopolitical conflict caused a surge in both energy prices and the US dollar. Therefore, employing volatility strategies like long straddles on major currency pairs such as EUR/USD could be profitable, capturing a large price move in either direction. This hawkish tone from the Fed marks a notable shift from the more neutral policy expectations we held in late 2025. However, we must remain tactical and watch Tuesday’s preliminary Manufacturing PMI reading. A surprisingly weak report could cause a temporary dip in the dollar, offering a more favorable entry point for establishing these long dollar and energy positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CAD fell for a second session and traded near 1.3710 in Asian hours on Monday. Price stayed above the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a mild bullish near-term bias within a wider range. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) held in the mid-50s after rebounding from below 40. This points to firmer buying pressure without entering overbought territory.

Technical Levels And Breakout Watch

On the daily chart, the pair traded near the top of a rectangle pattern around 1.3750. A break above this area could open a move towards 1.3928, the three-month high set on 16 January. Support was seen at 1.3700, close to the nine- and 50-day EMAs at 1.3697 and 1.3696. A drop below these levels could shift focus to the lower edge of the range near 1.3540. The technical content was produced with help from an AI tool. We are watching the USD/CAD pair closely as it tests the critical 1.3700 support area. This level is significant because it aligns with both the nine- and 50-day moving averages, acting as a key pivot point for the near term. The pair’s ability to hold above this zone suggests an underlying bullish tone is still present.

Macro Drivers And Positioning

Fundamentally, the divergence between central bank policies is supporting the US dollar. Recent data showed US core inflation holding firm at 2.8% year-over-year, prompting expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain patient, while the Bank of Canada has signaled more concern about a slowing domestic economy. This policy difference continues to favor a stronger USD relative to the CAD. Adding pressure on the Canadian dollar, WTI crude oil prices have recently dipped below $80 per barrel, a drop of over 5% this month, due to concerns about global demand. As a major oil exporter, Canada’s currency is sensitive to these price shifts. This weakness in oil reinforces the potential for further USD/CAD upside. Considering the improving momentum shown by the RSI, we should consider purchasing April 2026 call options with a strike price around 1.3750. This strategy positions us for a potential breakout above the channel, targeting the January high near 1.3928. The defined risk of an options contract is prudent given the market is at a clear decision point. We saw a similar technical setup back in the fourth quarter of 2025, when the pair consolidated near its moving averages before a significant rally. That period was also marked by uncertainty around commodity prices, reminding us that these consolidations can precede strong directional moves. This historical precedent gives us added confidence in a potential upward resolution. However, risk must be managed carefully if the 1.3700 support level fails to hold. A definitive break below the moving averages would invalidate our bullish outlook. In that event, we should be prepared to quickly shift strategy and purchase put options targeting the lower channel boundary around 1.3540. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Asian shares fell at the start of the week after tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about energy supply. The move followed a 48-hour ultimatum from US President Donald Trump for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 3.75% near 51,360, Shanghai was down 2.23% near 3,870, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 3.3% around 24,440. Gift Nifty futures indicated the Nifty 50 could open more than 350 points lower near 22,770.

Markets React To Strait Of Hormuz Risk

Over the weekend, Trump posted on Truth.Social that Iranian energy facilities could face complete destruction if the strait is not reopened within 48 hours. Iran said it would close the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely, Politico reported. Iran also threatened to target US- and Israel-linked energy, IT, and desalination infrastructure in the region, according to Politico. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Trump discussed the strait on Sunday, with both stating it must reopen to resume global shipping. The disruption has added to oil supply risks for Asia. Saudi Aramco cut crude supply to Asian buyers for a second month in April after the US-Israeli war with Iran disrupted trade via the strait. Higher energy prices can raise household costs and company expenses. Many Asian economies rely heavily on imported oil for their energy needs.

Trading Implications From The 2025 Playbook

We saw exactly this scenario play out in early 2025 when the Hormuz Strait conflict caused Asian markets to plummet almost overnight. That event created a clear template, showing us that geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East now have an immediate and severe impact on energy prices and equities. Any trader who was not prepared for that volatility paid a heavy price. Following the 2025 tensions, WTI crude futures briefly spiked to over $130 a barrel before settling into a new, higher range. As of last week, oil is holding steady around $95 a barrel, significantly above its pre-crisis levels, reflecting a permanent risk premium now priced into the market. This makes long-dated call options on oil a necessary hedge, as any new disruption could send prices soaring again. We should also remember how the Nikkei 225 took nearly six months to recover from the sharp sell-off it experienced in 2025. Today, Asian economies remain incredibly sensitive to energy costs, with Japan’s latest trade data showing a 12% year-over-year increase in the cost of energy imports. Buying put options on Asian index ETFs offers crucial protection against a repeat of this economic shock. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is another key lesson from the 2025 incident, where it jumped from 18 to over 45 in less than a week. The VIX is currently trading at a nervous 22, indicating that the market has not forgotten how quickly stability can vanish. We should view VIX call spreads as a cost-effective insurance policy against the next unpredictable event. The lasting effect from 2025 is that supply chain diversification is now a major theme, with U.S. LNG exports to Asia having risen by over 15% since the crisis. This has created new derivative opportunities tied to logistics and alternative energy sectors. These are no longer niche plays but essential positions in a world where traditional energy routes can no longer be taken for granted. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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WTI crude slipped from intraday highs but held near $98.10 a barrel in Monday’s Asian session as Middle East supply risks persisted. Reports said US President Donald Trump set a 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face possible strikes on energy sites. Other reports said Washington is weighing a ground operation to take control of Iran’s Kharg Island, an oil export hub. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would shut the strait if the US acts, and Tehran said it could target US and Israeli assets in the region.

Supply Risks And Shipping Disruptions

Reuters reported Saudi Aramco cut crude shipments to Asian buyers for a second month in April, with disruption linked to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply was limited to Arab Light crude from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, tightening feedstock for Asian refiners and limiting output. IEA chief Fatih Birol said he is speaking with governments about possible emergency stock releases. He said reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the main route to ease the situation, and warned the disruption could exceed the combined oil shocks of the 1970s. With West Texas Intermediate crude near $98 a barrel and a 48-hour US deadline for Iran, we are seeing a massive increase in implied volatility. Traders should consider buying call options on May and June futures with strike prices well above $100, such as $105 or $110. This gives exposure to a potential price surge if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, similar to how prices shot past $120 a barrel in early 2022 after the conflict in Ukraine began. The extreme uncertainty of the situation means prices could also collapse if a diplomatic solution is found. To profit from a large price swing in either direction, a long straddle is a viable strategy, involving the purchase of both a call and a put option. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has likely surged, and we saw it jump from the 40s to over 90 during the 2022 supply shock, which shows how profitable playing volatility can be.

Brent Wti Spread And Relative Value Trades

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz affects the international Brent benchmark more directly than WTI, so we expect the Brent-WTI spread to widen significantly. A pair trade, going long Brent futures while shorting WTI futures, could capture this divergence. This is reinforced by reports that Asian refiners are already seeing supply cuts, which will impact their margins and product output. Given that Saudi Aramco is limiting shipments to Asia, the market for refined products like gasoline and diesel will tighten even faster than crude. We should look at buying futures for refined products like RBOB gasoline while selling WTI crude futures, a position known as a long crack spread. Last year, we saw Asian crack spreads nearly triple in a few weeks during the South China Sea naval exercises, highlighting the potential here. The warnings from the International Energy Agency about releasing emergency stocks suggest they see a real possibility of a crisis worse than the 1970s shocks. While an SPR release could eventually cap prices, the announcement itself confirms the severity of the supply threat we are facing. Looking back at the 1973 oil crisis, prices quadrupled within six months, a historical precedent that makes holding long positions a compelling strategy for the weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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