On Wednesday, the U.S. stock market saw mixed performances, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by 0.20% to 34,575.53, while the S&P 500 managed a slight uptick of 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.29%. These moves were in response to a surprising increase in August’s core inflation, which exceeded expectations, prompting concerns. In the currency market, the U.S. dollar initially gained strength due to the inflation data but later reversed course as core CPI figures aligned with forecasts. This led to a perception of disinflationary pressure and eliminated the possibility of an immediate Fed interest rate hike. Treasury yields attracted buying interest but fell short of this year’s peaks. Notably, EUR/USD declined, and the ECB meeting is closely watched with a 64% probability of an ECB rate hike priced in. USD/JPY showed resilience, and the Australian dollar remained flat, while the offshore yuan gained amid hopes of stabilizing financial and economic conditions in China.

Stock Market Updates

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a decline of 70.46 points, equivalent to a 0.20% drop, settling at 34,575.53, marking its second consecutive day of losses. In contrast, the S&P 500 managed a slight uptick of 0.12%, reaching 4,467.44, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a more significant gain, rising by 0.29% to conclude the day at 13,813.59. Within the Dow, CNBC and 3M bore the brunt of losses, with a sharp drop of over 5.7%, followed by Caterpillar, which saw its shares dip by 2%. Meanwhile, Apple shares declined for a second consecutive day, falling by more than 1%. Conversely, the tech sector bolstered the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with Tesla shares gaining 1.4% as billionaire investor Ron Baron expressed optimism about the electric vehicle maker. Amazon shares also surged, reaching their highest level since August 2022, with an increase of over 2.5%.

The market reaction came in response to a surprising increase in August’s core inflation print within the consumer price index. The core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3%, surpassing expectations for a 0.2% increase, and stood at 4.3% year-on-year, meeting forecasts. Federal Reserve officials typically focus on the core inflation number as it offers a more reliable indication of long-term inflation trends. In contrast, the headline numbers, including all components, increased by 0.6% in the past month and were up 3.7% compared to the same period last year. Economists surveyed had anticipated smaller increases of 0.6% and 3.6%, respectively. Although the unsettling inflation report raised concerns, experts believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take immediate action, with market participants not expecting any moves until November. Currently, Wall Street appears to have factored in a pause in interest rate hikes, with a 97% probability of rates remaining unchanged at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.

Data by Bloomberg

On Wednesday, the overall market saw a modest gain of 0.12%. Among the sectors, Utilities performed the best with a significant increase of 1.21%, followed by Consumer Discretionary, which rose by 0.90%. Communication Services and Information Technology also showed positive momentum, with gains of 0.40% and 0.31%, respectively. Consumer Staples and Health Care had smaller increases of 0.26% and 0.02%. However, Financials experienced a slight decline of -0.10%. The Materials sector saw a more notable decrease of -0.59%, while Industrials and Energy had more substantial losses of -0.67% and -0.76%, respectively. Real Estate was the weakest performing sector, declining by -1.03% on Wednesday.

Currency Market Updates

The currency market reacted to the U.S. CPI data with a cautious stance, as traders had entered the session with an excessively short position in Treasuries and a strong long position in the U.S. dollar. The dollar index initially saw gains following a higher-than-expected increase in core CPI and an above-forecast overall rise compared to the previous year. However, the core CPI figure fell to 4.3% from the August reading, aligning with forecasts, which led to a perception of disinflationary pressure, eliminating the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike in the near term. Two- and 10-year Treasury yields, which had approached their highest levels of the year, attracted significant buying interest but failed to surpass those peaks.

Meanwhile, in the currency pairs, EUR/USD experienced a 0.14% decline but remained above its Wednesday low. This was partly supported by higher bund-Treasury yield spreads. The market is closely watching the ECB meeting, with a 64% probability of an ECB rate hike priced in after being below 50% just a day earlier. Sterling remained relatively stable, recovering from an initial dip due to disappointing data and a subsequent drop following the U.S. CPI release. USD/JPY saw a 0.18% rise, showing resilience to the drop in Treasury yields, as concerns about a potential BoJ rate hike or FX intervention by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) receded. However, the path to higher prices in this pair depends on a resumption of the uptrend in Treasury yields. The Australian dollar remained flat, while the offshore yuan gained 0.4% on hopes of China’s FX actions and housing stimulus efforts stabilizing the financial and economic landscape amid growth concerns.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Holds Steady Ahead of ECB Meeting Amid Uncertainty

The EUR/USD maintained its position unaffected by the release of US consumer inflation data, trading within a familiar range with support around 1.0700. All eyes are now on the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which holds the potential to spark significant market movements due to the lack of consensus on policy actions. Reports suggest the ECB may raise its inflation forecast, fueling speculation about a rate hike. The ECB faces a dilemma between a rate hike and a pause, given economic conditions and persistent inflation. The outcome will be crucial, with potential implications for the Euro’s performance, while important US data releases could add to volatility in the days ahead.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, EUR/USD moved flat on Wednesday and is currently trading just around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. This movement suggests the possibility of further consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 50, indicating that EUR/USD is in a neutral stance.

Resistance: 1.0759, 1.0803

Support: 1.0702, 1.0653

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Slips as US Inflation Data Fails to Spark Dollar Rally

Gold traded around $1,910 in the American afternoon, marking its second consecutive day of losses. Earlier in the day, major assets remained within familiar ranges as investors awaited the release of US inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August showed a 0.6% MoM increase and a 3.7% YoY rise, surpassing market expectations, leading to an initial rally in the US Dollar. However, the Dollar’s gains were short-lived as the CPI readings were not strong enough to trigger a hawkish response from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, US indexes held modest gains, and US Treasury yields saw some uptick. Attention now turns to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where expectations for a rate hike collide with economic challenges in the Euro Zone, leaving financial markets in a cautious state.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, XAU/USD moved flat on Wednesday and moving between the lower and middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is trading slightly above the lower band with the potential for further downward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, indicating that the XAU/USD pair is still biased towards the bearish side.

Resistance: $1,916, $1,925

Support: $1,903, $1,893

Economic Data

Dear Client,

New contracts will automatically be rolled over as follows:

Please note:

• The rollover will be automatic, and any existing open positions will remain open.

• Positions that are open on the expiration date will be adjusted via a rollover charge or credit to reflect the price difference between the expiring and new contracts.

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Dear Client,

To provide a better trading environment in accordance to the market condition, VT Markets will adjust the trading time of CHINA50 on September 18th, 2023.

Please find the table below for more information:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

Kind Reminder:

The rest of the specifications remain original except for the trading time.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

In a mixed day for the financial markets, the Nasdaq Composite faced a 1.04% decline on Tuesday, spurred by Oracle’s sharp 13.5% drop following disappointing results. This decline, though not a massive stock, reflects broader business spending trends and impacted both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Meanwhile, tech giants like Apple and Adobe also saw their share prices decline. On the energy front, U.S. crude oil prices hit their highest level since last November, boosting energy stocks. In the currency market, the US Dollar Index showed a modest increase as investors awaited the release of the August US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to influence Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations. The week also holds key inflation data with the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for Thursday. In the UK, mixed labor market data pointed to economic challenges, while in currency trading, the Pound weakened amid uncertainties. The EUR/USD pair faces upcoming Eurozone Industrial Production data and the European Central Bank’s meeting.

Stock Market Updates

On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite experienced a 1.04% decline, marking its first day of losses in three days. This drop was primarily driven by the sharp decline in Oracle shares, which tumbled 13.5% following disappointing quarterly results and a lackluster revenue forecast. This setback in Oracle, while not a massive stock, is indicative of larger business spending trends, impacting both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Additionally, other tech giants like Amazon, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), and Microsoft also saw their stock prices slide.

Meanwhile, Apple’s shares fell by 1.7% after the announcement of a new iPhone model, and Adobe’s shares dropped approximately 4% ahead of its upcoming earnings report. On a different note, U.S. crude oil prices reached their highest level since November of the previous year, driven by OPEC’s optimistic demand growth forecast. This surge in oil prices provided a boost to energy stocks, with Chevron and Exxon Mobil both seeing gains of about 1.9% and 2.9%, respectively. Investors are now closely watching key inflation data set to be released later this week, along with the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday.

Investors eagerly await the release of key inflation data later this week, especially following a series of stronger-than-expected economic indicators from the previous week, which raised concerns about the possibility of the Federal Reserve increasing rates more than previously anticipated.

Data by Bloomberg

On Tuesday, the overall market slipped by 0.57%, with notable sector performance variations. Energy surged by 2.31%, and financials gained 0.85%, while utilities and real estate had slight gains of 0.13% and -0.03%, respectively. In contrast, information technology saw a substantial 1.75% drop, and communication services declined by 1.06%. Consumer discretionary, industrials, materials, and health care sectors faced moderate declines ranging from -0.17% to -0.89%, while consumer staples decreased by 0.71%. These sector-specific movements contributed to the market’s overall decline.

Currency Market Updates

The US Dollar Index saw a modest uptick on Tuesday, nearing 105.00 before retracing, with markets relatively calm as they awaited crucial US data. The highlight of the week, the August US Consumer Price Index (CPI), is scheduled for release on Wednesday. It’s expected to show an annual rate rebound from 3.2% to 3.6%, while the Core rate may slow down from 4.7% to 4.3%. These figures are poised to influence expectations about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, likely leading to increased volatility. Thursday will bring more inflation data with the Producer Price Index (PPI).

In the UK, mixed labor market data signaled a deteriorating economic situation, as the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% – the highest since September 2021 – accompanied by a decline in employment by 207K. Despite average hourly weekly earnings exceeding expectations at 8.5%, the Pound weakened. The GBP/USD pair approached its monthly low before rebounding toward 1.2500. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair reached a weekly high at 1.0769 and has Eurozone Industrial Production data scheduled for Wednesday, along with the European Central Bank’s Governing Council meeting on Thursday.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Sees Modest Pullback Ahead of Key Economic Data and ECB Meeting

The EUR/USD pair experienced a moderate pullback on Tuesday, initially spiking to 1.0769 during the Asian session, its highest level in a week, before retracing while still holding above the 1.0700 mark. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of US consumer inflation data and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.

The market received mixed signals from Germany, with the current condition index dropping to -79.4, its lowest point since August 2020, and the expected index coming in at -11.4, surpassing the forecast of -15.0. These indicators contribute to concerns about a potential recession in Germany and the Eurozone, impacting expectations regarding an ECB rate hike. Market pricing suggests a nearly 50% probability of a rate hike on Thursday, but most analysts anticipate at least one 25 basis points rate hike by year-end. The economic outlook of the Eurozone, in contrast to the more resilient US economy, remains a critical factor influencing the direction of the EUR/USD pair, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday poised to play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, EUR/USD moved higher on Tuesday and is currently trading just below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. This movement suggests the possibility of further continuation to the upside, potentially pushing towards the upper band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57, indicating that EUR/USD is in a neutral stance with a slight bullish bias.

Resistance: 1.0759, 1.0803

Support: 1.0702, 1.0653

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Dips Amid Dollar Demand but Recovers Slightly as Markets Await US CPI Data

Gold prices saw a decline on Tuesday, influenced by renewed demand for the US Dollar, as XAU/USD dropped to $1,907.53 per troy ounce. The decline in the precious metal was most pronounced during European trading hours, as weak local data raised concerns about economic setbacks in the United Kingdom and the Euro Zone.

However, the mood improved as Wall Street opened, with local indexes outperforming their international counterparts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was in positive territory, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite posted minor losses. XAU/USD managed to recover some of its earlier losses, trading at approximately $1,912 per troy ounce.

Speculative traders are exercising caution in anticipation of significant events scheduled for the latter part of the week, refraining from making strong commitments. Nevertheless, Gold has been among the weakest performers against the US Dollar this week. Attention now turns to the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to rise by 0.6% MoM and 3.6% YoY, surpassing July’s figures. Higher-than-expected CPI numbers could fuel speculation about an impending Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, benefiting the USD in a risk-averse environment. Conversely, if CPI figures fall short of market expectations, markets may turn notably optimistic.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, XAU/USD moved lower on Tuesday and reached the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is trading slightly above the lower band with the potential for further downward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 35, indicating that the XAU/USD pair is still biased towards the bearish side.

Resistance: $1,919, $1,925

Support: $1,910, $1,903

Economic Data

Read Part 1 of this article to learn about the purpose of charts in Forex trading, different chart types, and how to use line charts.

Bar Charts (OHLC) 

OHLC stands for Open, High, Low, and Close. Bar charts are a widely used type of Forex chart that display these four key price points for each time period. They are represented as vertical bars, and each bar provides a comprehensive view of price movements within that specific timeframe. 

Here’s a breakdown of the components of a bar on a bar chart: 

• _{Open Price: The top of the vertical bar represents the opening price of the currency pair at the beginning of the chosen time period.} 
• _{High Price: The top point or “spike” of the vertical bar indicates the highest price reached during that time period.} 

• _{Low Price: The lowest point or “dip” of the vertical bar represents the lowest price reached during that time period.} 
• _{Close Price: The bottom of the vertical bar represents the closing price of the currency pair at the end of the chosen time period.} 

Bar charts are valuable for traders who want a more detailed understanding of price movements. They provide a holistic picture of what happened within a given timeframe. 

How to Read and Interpret Bar Charts 

Reading and interpreting a bar chart involves analysing each bar to understand the dynamics of the market during that specific time period. Here’s how you can read and interpret a bar chart: 

• _{Open to Close: The vertical length of the bar represents the price range between the opening and closing prices for that period. A longer bar indicates a larger price range.} 
• _{High and Low: The “spike” at the top and the “dip” at the bottom of the bar show the highest and lowest prices reached during the period.} 
• _{Market Sentiment: Analysing the relationship between the opening and closing prices can help you gauge market sentiment. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, it suggests bullish sentiment (buying pressure). Conversely, if the closing price is lower than the opening price, it indicates bearish sentiment (selling pressure).} 

• _{Patterns and Trends: By observing patterns in multiple bars, traders can identify trends, reversals, and potential trading opportunities.} 

In summary, bar charts are a powerful tool for traders seeking detailed insights into price movements. While they may seem complex at first, they are worth exploring as you gain experience in Forex trading. 

Candlestick Charts 

Candlestick charts are a highly visual and popular way to represent price movements in Forex trading. They use “candles” to provide a comprehensive view of the opening, high, low, and closing prices within a specific timeframe. 

Here’s a breakdown of the key elements of a candlestick: 

• _{Body: The central and thicker part of the candlestick is known as the “body.” The body represents the price range between the opening and closing prices for the given time period.} 
• _{Wicks or Shadows: Thin lines extending above and below the body are called “wicks” or “shadows.” These wicks represent the highest and lowest prices reached during the same time period.} 
• _{Colour: Candlestick charts use colour to convey valuable information about price movement during the timeframe. Typically, candles are coloured green or red, but this can vary depending on your chart settings and platform.} 

How to Read and Interpret Candlestick Charts 

Reading and interpreting candlestick charts involve understanding the relationship between the body, wicks, and their colours. Here’s how you can read and interpret a candlestick: 

• _{Body and Wick Length: The length of the body and the wicks provides insights into price volatility. A longer body or wick signifies greater price movement during the timeframe.} 
• _{Green (Bullish) and Red (Bearish): In most cases, a green (or white) candle represents a bullish candlestick, indicating that the closing price is higher than the opening price. Conversely, a red (or black) candle represents a bearish candlestick, signifying that the closing price is lower than the opening price.} 

• _{Upper and Lower Shadows: The upper shadow extends from the top of the body to the high price, while the lower shadow extends from the bottom of the body to the low price. These shadows illustrate the price range’s extremes during the timeframe.} 
• _{Patterns: Candlestick charts are renowned for their ability to reveal specific patterns, such as doji, hammer, and engulfing patterns. Traders often use these patterns to predict market reversals or continuations.} 

In summary, candlestick charts are a powerful tool for traders seeking a visually engaging way to analyse price movements. Their ability to reveal patterns and market sentiment makes them a favourite among traders, but mastering their interpretation may require some practice and education. 

Timeframes and Charting Periods 

Forex charts can be customised to display price data at various timeframes. The timeframe you choose determines how much data each candlestick or bar represents. Here are some common timeframes: 

• _{1-Minute: Each candlestick or bar represents one minute of trading data. This timeframe is popular among day traders for making quick decisions.} 
• _{5-Minute: Each candlestick or bar represents five minutes of trading data. It provides a slightly broader view than the 1-minute timeframe while still catering to short-term traders.} 
• _{1-Hour: Each candlestick or bar represents one hour of trading data. This timeframe is suitable for traders who want to capture short- to medium-term price movements.} 
• _{4-Hour: Each candlestick or bar represents four hours of trading data. It’s commonly used by swing traders and provides a more extended perspective of the market.} 

• _{Daily: Each candlestick or bar represents one full trading day. Daily charts are favoured by long-term traders and investors who want to identify significant trends and potential entry points over several days or weeks.} 
• _{Weekly: Each candlestick or bar represents one trading week, making it ideal for traders with long-term investment horizons who aim to capture trends over months or even years.} 

Choosing the Right Timeframe 

Selecting the appropriate timeframe is a crucial decision that depends on your trading style, goals, and preferences. It impacts the type of price movements you observe and the duration of your trades. By aligning your timeframe with your trading style and objectives, you can make more informed decisions and enhance your overall trading success. 

Here are some considerations: 

• _{Short-Term Traders: If you’re a day trader or scalper looking for quick profits from short-term price fluctuations, lower timeframes like 1-minute or 5-minute charts may be more suitable.} 
• _{Medium-Term Traders: Traders with a medium-term horizon, such as swing traders, often use 1-hour or 4-hour charts to capture price movements that span a few days to a few weeks.} 
• _{Long-Term Investors: If you’re an investor or trader focused on long-term trends, daily or weekly charts provide a broader view of the market and are better suited for identifying significant trends and potential entry points over a more extended period.} 

• _{Combination: Some traders use a combination of timeframes to gain different perspectives on the same currency pair. For example, they might use a daily chart for trend analysis and a 1-hour chart for precise entry and exit points.} 

In conclusion, Forex charts are indispensable tools in the currency trading world, offering clarity amid market complexity. Whether you choose line, bar, or candlestick charts, your chart type significantly impacts your trading strategy. Understanding various timeframes is key for aligning your trading style with your goals. As you dive into trading, remember that chart analysis is a skill to refine, guiding you to profitable decisions and financial growth. Happy trading! 

Summary: 

• _{Forex charts are vital for traders, providing visual insights into currency pair price movements.} 
• _{They are essential for price analysis, timing trades, risk management, decision-making, strategy development, and psychological support.} 
• _{Three main types of Forex charts are available: line charts, bar charts (OHLC), and candlestick charts, each offering a unique perspective on the market. The choice of chart type depends on your trading style and goals.} 
• _{Timeframes, such as 1-minute, 1-hour, and daily, determine the data granularity, aligning with your trading style.} 

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

The stock market opened the week on a positive note, with renewed investor interest in tech stocks following a recent slump. The Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a robust 1.14% gain, reaching 13,917.89, while the S&P 500 climbed by 0.67% to 4,487.46, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 34,663.72, up 0.25%, with Walt Disney contributing to its rise. Tesla surged by 10% due to an upgrade by Morgan Stanley, driven by optimism about its autonomous software. Qualcomm also saw a 4% increase after announcing a deal to supply Apple with 5G modems. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund rebounded by 0.5% after recent declines, and Disney shares rose by 1.2% following the resolution of a cable blackout dispute with Charter Communications. The market was buoyed by a report indicating that the Federal Reserve was unlikely to raise rates at its upcoming meeting, given improving inflation data. Investors are now eagerly awaiting key inflation figures in the coming week. In parallel, the US dollar declined broadly, while EUR/USD rose by 0.46%, despite the European Commission lowering its growth forecast, reflecting a weakening dollar amidst upcoming data releases and central bank meetings.

Stock Market Updates

On Monday, the stock market saw a positive start to a significant week filled with inflation data releases. Investors displayed a renewed interest in tech stocks following a recent period of weakness. The Nasdaq Composite led the way with a robust 1.14% gain, reaching a value of 13,917.89. Similarly, the S&P 500 also climbed, rising by 0.67% to 4,487.46, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 87.13 points, or 0.25%, closing at 34,663.72. Notably, Walt Disney shares contributed to the Dow’s increase. Tesla experienced a remarkable surge of 10% due to an upgrade by Morgan Stanley, which anticipated a significant rally owing to advancements in its autonomous software. In addition, Qualcomm shares rose by nearly 4% following their announcement that they would supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones until 2026.

Meanwhile, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), composed of tech shares within the S&P 500, had faced a 1.5% decline in August and more than a 1% decrease this month. However, on Monday, the ETF managed to rebound, recording a gain of approximately 0.5%. Remarkably, it had gained nearly 40% over the course of the year. Additionally, Disney shares increased by around 1.2% as the media conglomerate and Charter Communications resolved their cable blackout dispute. The positive sentiment in the market was further bolstered by a report from The Wall Street Journal on Sunday, which suggested that there was a consensus within the Federal Reserve not to raise rates at the upcoming meeting. The report also indicated a policy shift, with members perceiving less urgency for an additional rate hike later in the year, given the improving inflation data.

Investors eagerly await the release of key inflation data in the coming week, especially following a series of stronger-than-expected economic indicators from the previous week, which had raised concerns about the possibility of the Federal Reserve increasing rates more than previously anticipated.

Data by Bloomberg

On Monday, the stock market displayed a generally positive trend, with all sectors collectively rising by 0.67%. Notably, Consumer Discretionary led the way with a significant gain of 2.77%, while Communication Services also performed well, posting a 1.17% increase. Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Information Technology sectors saw moderate gains, while Materials and Financials showed modest upticks. However, Real Estate and Industrials had marginal increases, and Energy experienced a notable decline of -1.32%, reflecting the varying performances of different sectors during the trading day.

Currency Market Updates

On Monday, the US dollar experienced a broad decline, with USD/JPY dropping due to comments by BoJ Governor Kazuo suggesting the potential for a year-end rate hike. Concurrently, USD/CNH fell by 0.8% in response to stronger Chinese data and robust efforts to bolster the yuan. Despite Germany’s recession and a cut in forecasts by the EU Commission, EUR/USD rose by 0.46% amid the dollar’s overall retreat.

In the US, the New York Fed’s August Survey indicated little change in inflation expectations but heightened concerns about job prospects and financial conditions. After eight consecutive weeks of losses, consolidation was anticipated ahead of key data releases, including US CPI, PPI, and retail sales midweek, as well as the ECB meeting on Thursday. The drop in USD/JPY to its lowest level since September 1st contrasted with the rise in JGB yields but was influenced by more attractive 2- and 10-year Treasury yields at 4.99% and 4.29%.

GBP/USD, despite Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann’s comments, gained 0.37% but remained above the 200-day moving average. The focus shifted to Tuesday’s UK employment report, which anticipated a significant drop in employment and an increased jobless rate. AUD/USD declined by 0.8%, reflecting strong gains in commodity prices and positive sentiment regarding China’s economy. The week ahead held key events, including German and euro zone updates, US CPI, and PPI releases, with inflation forecasts and retail sales data contributing to market dynamics.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Rebounds as ECB Meeting Looms Amidst Dollar Weakness

The EUR/USD pair staged a recovery, bouncing back from three-month lows to reach the 1.0760 level, marking its highest point in six days. This upward movement was primarily driven by a broad weakening of the US Dollar, attributed to improved risk sentiment. The US Dollar Index registered its first decline in nearly two weeks. The upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting on Thursday holds the possibility of a modest interest rate hike, although the market wouldn’t be shocked by a pause. Last week, uncertainty surrounding the ECB’s future actions had put pressure on the Euro. Additionally, the German ZEW Survey is scheduled for release on Tuesday.

However, it’s important to note that the European Commission’s reduction of its 2023 growth forecast, particularly for Germany, which is expected to contract by 0.4%, has had an impact. The US economy’s relative strength continues to bolster the Greenback. Looking ahead, the key report in the US is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, ahead of the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where no rate hike is anticipated.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved slightly higher on Monday and is currently trading just below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. This movement suggests the possibility of a slight downward movement reaching the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 53, indicating that the EUR/USD is in neutral stance.

Resistance: 1.0759, 1.0803

Support: 1.0702, 1.0653

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Rise as Dollar Weakens in Risk-On Environment Amid Asia’s Economic Rebound

Gold prices saw an uptick on Monday, as the demand for the US Dollar waned in a risk-on environment. XAU/USD reached as high as $1,930.70 per troy ounce before settling at $1,924 as the initial optimism gradually subsided throughout the day.

This shift in gold prices was influenced by stock market rebounds, driven by news of improving economic conditions in Asia. China reported an increase in the August Consumer Price Index (CPI), reversing earlier negative trends, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments about a potential exit from negative rates contributed to a decline in the safe-haven US Dollar across the foreign exchange market.

While the positive sentiment extended to Wall Street with major indexes trading in the green, caution prevailed ahead of significant upcoming events. Speculators are keenly awaiting the US August Consumer Price Index (CPI), with an annual inflation rate expected to be slightly higher at 3.6%. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its monetary policy decision later in the week, with expectations leaning toward the ECB maintaining its current stance, although the possibility of a surprise 25 basis point rate hike lingers due to persistent price pressures. US indexes held onto modest gains, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way, while firmer US Treasury yields contributed to the Dollar’s recovery, with the 10-year note offering 4.29%.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, XAU/USD remained flat on Monday, oscillating around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is showing a consolidating movement around the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 45, indicating that the XAU/USD pair is still in a bearish mode but making an effort to shift back into a neutral zone.

Resistance: $1,925, $1,935

Support: $1,912, $1,903

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Of particular interest to traders this week will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), the US Producer Price Index (PPI), and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Rate Decision. These items have the potential to significantly impact the markets. Exercise caution and stay up to date with the latest developments to ensure a successful week of trading. 

Here are some notable market highlights for the upcoming week:

UK Claimant Count Change (12 September 2023)

The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK increased by 29,000 in July 2023.

The data for August 2023 will be released on 12 September, with analysts expecting a further increase of 17,000.

UK Gross Domestic Product (13 September 2023) 

The British economy expanded by 0.5% in June 2023, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May. 

Analysts anticipate a 0.3% decrease in the data for July 2023, scheduled for release on 13 September.

US Consumer Price Index (13 September 2023)

The monthly inflation rate in the US held steady at 0.2% in July 2023. 

Analysts expect an increase of 0.5% in the upcoming CPI figures, set to be released on 13 September.

Australia Employment Change (14 September 2023) 

Employment in Australia decreased by 14,600 in July 2023. 

Figures for August 2023 will be released on 14 September, with analysts anticipating an increase of 40,000.

European Central Bank Rate Decision (14 September 2023)  

The ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25% during its July meeting.

For the upcoming meeting on 14 September, analysts expect the central bank to keep the interest rates at 4.25%.

US Producer Price Index (14 September 2023) 

Producer prices in the US rose 0.3% in July 2023, the biggest increase since January 2023.

Analysts expect a 0.4% increase in the figures for August 2023, set to be released on 14 September.

US Retail Sales (14 September 2023)

US retail sales were up 0.7% in July 2023. This follows a 0.3% increase in June 2023 and marks a fourth consecutive rise.

Analysts expect a further increase of 0.2% in the figures for August 2023, set to be released on 14 September. 

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (15 September 2023)

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US was revised from preliminary estimates of 71.2 to 69.5 in August 2023.

Analysts expect the index to remain at 69.5 in the upcoming figures, set to be released on 15 September.