USD/JPY was slightly softer on Monday as the Yen found modest support and the US Dollar weakened amid reports of ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran. The pair was around 159.45, while the US Dollar Index was near 99.84, down about 0.34% on the day. Axios reported discussions involving the US, Iran and regional mediators on a possible 45-day ceasefire. Reuters said both sides have received a two-step proposal that could start as early as Monday and may include reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Ceasefire Talks In Focus

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said Tehran has prepared its diplomatic response to the US and will announce it in due time, according to SNN. If there is no clear outcome, oil prices, inflation risks and growth concerns may stay in focus for central bank policy. In Japan, higher oil prices could add to inflation and keep the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path, while also weighing on growth as Japan imports energy. Markets are pricing about a 70% chance of an April rate rise and expect two rises by year-end. USD/JPY trading near 160.00 keeps intervention risk elevated. In the US, markets now expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold through 2026, versus earlier expectations of at least two cuts this year, while the ISM Services PMI fell to 54 from 56.1, below the 55 forecast. The potential US-Iran ceasefire presents a clear opportunity to position for lower market volatility, as geopolitical risk premiums start to come out of the market. One-month implied volatility for USD/JPY, which spiked above 15% during the peak of the conflict in February, has already fallen to near 11% on these reports. We could see traders begin to sell volatility through strategies like short straddles on the pair if diplomatic progress continues.

Fed Pricing Shifts

A combination of peace talks and softening US economic data, like the recent ISM Services PMI miss, is shifting the outlook for the Federal Reserve. We are seeing a significant repricing in interest rate futures, which now imply a 40% chance of a rate cut by the third quarter, up from less than 10% just last week. This puts renewed downward pressure on the US Dollar, as expectations for rate cuts, which were completely abandoned when the conflict began, are now back on the table. For USD/JPY, the 160.00 level represents a powerful ceiling, reinforced by the constant threat of intervention from Japanese authorities. Given the weakening US dollar backdrop and this firm resistance, traders should view upside potential as limited and asymmetric risks skewed to the downside. Buying put options with strikes below 159.00 offers a defined-risk way to position for a sharp move lower, either from a confirmed ceasefire or direct intervention. We should remember the lessons from Japan’s major intervention cycles in 2022 and 2024, which caused the pair to drop by several hundred pips within hours. History shows that Japanese officials are most likely to act when the market is overextended and a global catalyst, such as a shift in Fed policy, supports their actions. This environment is quickly developing, making long positions near 160.00 exceptionally risky. A ceasefire would also complicate the Bank of Japan’s plans, as a drop in oil prices would ease inflationary pressures. WTI crude, which traded over $110 a barrel last month, has already pulled back, which could reduce the urgency for the BoJ to follow through with its two expected rate hikes this year. This policy divergence, with the Fed leaning dovish and the BoJ potentially turning less hawkish, remains a primary driver for a lower USD/JPY in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold held mild gains on Monday as the US Dollar eased and risk appetite improved. XAU/USD traded near $4,684 after dipping to about $4,600. Reports said the US, Iran and regional mediators were discussing a 45-day ceasefire. A separate report said a two-step plan could start as early as Monday and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomacy And Strait Of Hormuz

Iran said it has prepared a diplomatic response to the US. Earlier, Donald Trump said strikes on power plants and other civilian sites could follow if Hormuz is not reopened and no deal is reached by Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Oil prices pulled back from recent highs but stayed above pre-war levels, keeping inflation and growth worries in view. Expectations that central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, may keep rates higher for longer limited gold’s upside. The ISM Services PMI for March was 54, down from 56.1 in February and below 55 expected. This week includes US CPI and PCE, after last week’s stronger-than-expected NFP report. Technically, gold tried to hold above the 100-day SMA at 4,654, with resistance near 4,800 and the 50-day SMA around 4,944. Below 4,654, support levels cited were 4,350 and 4,100.

Ceasefire Outcome Scenarios

Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual total on record. Gold often moves opposite to the US Dollar and Treasuries, and can act as a store of value. The current focus is on the US-Iran ceasefire talks, which are creating massive uncertainty for the gold market. We see this as a binary event, meaning gold could either soar or plummet in the coming days depending on the outcome. Traders should therefore be positioned for a major spike in volatility rather than betting on a single direction. If a peace deal is announced, the significant war premium built into gold’s price will likely vanish almost instantly. We saw a similar dynamic when oil prices fell over 5% in a single day after the Iran nuclear framework was agreed upon back in 2015, showing how quickly geopolitical relief can reprice commodities. For traders, this means buying put options or setting up bear call spreads could be a way to profit from a sharp drop toward the $4,350 support level. On the other hand, a failure in negotiations by the Tuesday deadline would likely send gold surging past the $4,800 resistance mark. This bullish case is strengthened by stubborn inflation, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showing a 3.5% annual increase, well above the Fed’s target. A strong labor market, evidenced by the recent Nonfarm Payrolls report adding over 300,000 jobs, gives the Federal Reserve very little room to cut rates, which supports gold as an inflation hedge. Given these two extreme possibilities, a long straddle is a strategy worth considering. By purchasing both a call option and a put option with the same strike price and expiration date, a trader can profit from a large price move in either direction. This approach is a pure play on the high-impact news we are anticipating this week. We are also watching oil prices, as they are the main engine of these inflationary pressures. Even if a ceasefire is reached, crude oil holding above $110 per barrel will keep inflation risks alive and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. This dynamic creates a confusing picture where a traditional safe-haven asset like gold is caught between geopolitical risk and high interest rates. The technical levels provide clear triggers for derivative plays. A breakdown below the 100-day moving average at $4,654 would be a strong signal to initiate bearish positions. Conversely, a clean break above the recent high of $4,800 would confirm bullish momentum and could be a trigger to buy calls targeting the next resistance level near $4,944. Looking back from the perspective of 2025, we know that strong underlying support for gold came from central banks. They added a record 1,037 tonnes to their reserves in 2023, following an even bigger haul the year before, signaling a long-term strategy to de-dollarize. This suggests that any major price drop from a peace deal might be cushioned as central banks view it as a buying opportunity. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY edged lower on Monday as the Japanese Yen gained mild support and the US Dollar weakened. The pair traded near 159.45, while the US Dollar Index was around 99.84, down 0.34%. Reports pointed to possible ceasefire talks linked to the US-Iran conflict. Axios reported discussions on a possible 45-day ceasefire involving the US, Iran, and regional mediators.

Ceasefire Talks And Market Impact

Reuters reported a proposed two-step deal that could start as early as Monday and may include reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran has prepared a diplomatic response and will announce it in due course. Oil prices and related inflation and growth risks remain a factor for central bank policy. In Japan, higher oil costs can add to inflation and support gradual Bank of Japan tightening, but may also weaken growth as Japan imports energy. Markets are pricing about a 70% chance of a rate rise at the April meeting, with two rises expected by year-end. USD/JPY trading near 160.00 keeps the risk of Japanese intervention in focus. In the US, expectations shifted towards the Federal Reserve holding rates through 2026. The ISM Services PMI for March was 54, down from 56.1 and below the 55 forecast.

Trade Setups For A Weaker Dollar

Given the potential for a US-Iran ceasefire, the primary signal for us is to anticipate a weaker US Dollar. This de-escalation reduces global risk, lessening the appeal of the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from this, such as buying put options on USD-linked currency pairs or the US Dollar Index itself. Specifically for USD/JPY, the 160.00 level now acts as a formidable ceiling due to the high probability of intervention from Japanese authorities. We all remember how Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened to strengthen the yen back in late 2022, causing a rapid drop in the pair. Selling call options with strike prices at or above 160.00 could be an effective way to collect premium while betting that this level will hold. A successful ceasefire would almost certainly lead to a drop in oil prices, especially if the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil transit, reopens fully. This would ease global inflationary pressures and further diminish the dollar’s appeal. Positioning for this outcome could involve buying put options on WTI or Brent crude oil futures. The divergence in central bank policy adds another layer to this outlook. While markets now expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady through 2026, a sharp shift from the rate cut expectations we held in 2025, the Bank of Japan is signaling more rate hikes. This fundamental backdrop provides a compelling reason to be bearish on USD/JPY in the coming weeks. Finally, the softening US economic data, like the recent ISM Services PMI miss, reinforces this cautious view on the dollar. The March reading of 54.0, down from 56.1, suggests a loss of momentum in the services sector, which makes the Fed less likely to adopt a more hawkish stance. This environment makes shorting the dollar against a strengthening yen an increasingly attractive position. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Beyond Meat (BYND) is trading near $0.59, close to an all-time low area at $0.50. The chart describes this as a double bottom, with price having reached $0.50 twice. A down-sloping trendline has capped rallies since November 2025. The trendline is moving towards the $0.75–$0.80 area, and price would need to close above it on a daily basis to move beyond the downtrend. A daily close above $0.65–$0.70 is presented as a near-term level that could support a short-term move higher. The descending trendline is described as the main test for any continued upside. If price closes below $0.50 on a daily basis, the chart is described as having limited further support levels. The text notes that repeated tests of $0.50 may reduce its strength over time. Risk management is advised for trading BYND. The scenario focuses on watching whether $0.50 holds or breaks. With Beyond Meat’s stock pressing its all-time low around $0.50, we are looking at a clear decision point. This level has been tested multiple times, increasing the chances of a volatile move in either direction. For derivative traders, this is a moment to watch for defined entry signals rather than guessing. A potential play is to watch for the stock to hold $0.50 and then use a break above $0.65 as a trigger to buy short-dated call options. These options would be cheap, offering leverage on a potential squeeze towards the descending trendline resistance near $0.75. We would view any such move as a short-term trade, given the fundamental headwinds facing the company. Fundamentally, the picture remains challenging after the weak earnings report we saw in February 2026. Recent industry data shows that sales growth in the plant-based category has slowed to just 2% year-over-year, a stark contrast to the boom we saw a few years ago. This broader market saturation, combined with elevated short interest near 35% of the float, suggests any rally will face significant selling pressure. Conversely, if we see a confirmed daily close below the $0.50 floor, we would consider buying put options to capitalize on the downside. That support level has been tested repeatedly since 2025, and a failure there would open up an air pocket with no clear technical support below. Such a breakdown would likely trigger a wave of stop-loss orders, potentially accelerating the decline. Given the binary nature of this setup, traders should consider using defined-risk strategies like spreads to manage cost and potential losses. Implied volatility will likely expand as the price coils near this $0.50 level, making outright long options more expensive. We are not interested in predicting the direction, but in reacting decisively if one of these key levels is breached.

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Canadian government bond yields opened higher, rising 2–3 bps across the curve, in line with moves in US rates after Friday’s US payrolls data. Market direction was also linked to geopolitical tensions. A busy US data calendar was expected to drive larger moves in Canadian rates than domestic factors. Volatility was described as mainly imported rather than generated in Canada.

Canadian Rates Track Us Moves

Canada’s employment report on Friday was expected to show only a modest rebound and could affect markets. Geopolitical developments were expected to carry more influence later in the week if no agreement was reached by Tuesday night’s deadline. A 5-year bond auction was also due and was expected to affect duration during the week. Positioning remained focused on being long Canada’s 2-year segment while monitoring Middle East developments and March Labour Force Survey data. The article stated it was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. We are seeing Canadian rates open weaker this week, with yields across the curve up about 2 to 3 basis points. This is tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries following last Friday’s surprisingly strong American jobs report, which showed the creation of 290,000 new positions. The market is now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a June rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Key Data And Positioning

The major market moves in the coming weeks will likely be imported from the U.S. rather than driven by our own data. We saw a similar pattern throughout 2025, where Canadian bond yields were heavily influenced by the Fed’s policy decisions. The upcoming U.S. inflation data this week will therefore be the most significant catalyst for our market. Our own domestic picture is less impactful, with the March Labour Force Survey due this Friday. We are only expecting a modest rebound, with forecasts for job growth around the 15,000 to 20,000 mark. This level of growth is unlikely to shift the Bank of Canada’s current cautious stance. Geopolitical factors may hold more weight, especially with renewed tensions in the Middle East pushing Brent crude oil back above $95 a barrel. These energy price shocks create volatility that can override domestic economic signals. We will be watching these developments closely as they can complicate the inflation outlook. Given this backdrop, we are maintaining a bias to be long 2-year Canada bonds through derivatives like futures or swaps. This position benefits if short-term yields fall, which could happen if global risk aversion increases or the Bank of Canada signals a more dovish path. However, the upcoming 5-year government bond auction will put some temporary upward pressure on longer-term yields. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Beyond Meat (BYND) is trading near $0.59, close to a chart level described as a double bottom at the all-time low of $0.50. The price has reached the $0.50 area twice, and it is being watched as a support zone. A down-sloping trendline has capped rallies since November 2025. This resistance is now near $0.75–$0.80, and a daily close above it is presented as the condition needed to support a broader change in direction. A daily close above $0.65–$0.70 is described as an early sign of strength, but the descending trendline remains the main barrier. Any upside before clearing that level is framed as movement within a wider downtrend. If the stock closes below $0.50, the chart is described as having limited nearby support, making downside moves harder to map. The text also references using risk management when trading BYND, with attention on whether $0.50 holds or breaks. Given that Beyond Meat is at such a critical technical point, the coming weeks present a clear opportunity for derivative traders. The tension between the strong support at $0.50 and the overhead resistance suggests a significant price move is likely, causing implied volatility in the options market to be heightened. This means option premiums are more expensive, but also that a correct directional bet could be very profitable. For those anticipating a bounce, buying call options with a strike price around $0.75 expiring in May or June offers a low-cost, high-leverage way to play a recovery. If the stock confirms a hold above $0.50 and moves toward the trendline, these calls would gain value rapidly. This strategy defines our risk to the premium paid, which is essential for a stock that has been in a long-term downtrend. Conversely, traders who believe the support will break should consider buying put options. A confirmed daily close below the $0.50 all-time low could trigger stop-loss orders and a swift decline, as there is no established price floor beneath it. Buying puts with a $0.50 strike price would position us to profit from such a breakdown scenario. The fundamental picture justifies this cautious view, as the company’s most recent earnings report for Q4 2025 showed a continued 18% slide in year-over-year revenue amid intense competition. Furthermore, recent data shows short interest has remained stubbornly high, now sitting near 38% of the public float. This indicates that a large part of the market is betting against any meaningful recovery. We have to remember the context of this stock’s history, looking back to when it traded over $200 a share in 2019. The persistent downtrend, especially the one that has been in place since November 2025, shows that sellers have consistently overpowered buyers on every rally attempt. This long-term weakness suggests any bounce should be treated with skepticism until proven otherwise. Our strategy should be one of patience, waiting for the market to confirm its direction rather than guessing. We can place alerts for a daily close below $0.50 to trigger a put option entry or a close above $0.70 to consider a short-term call option trade. Entering a position before the stock breaks out of this tight range is a high-risk proposition.

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Canadian rates opened weaker, with domestic yields 2–3 bps higher across the curve while tracking US moves after Friday’s payrolls. Market moves this week are expected to be driven more by external factors than by Canadian data. A busy US data calendar may lead to larger imported swings in Canadian rates. Geopolitical tensions are also being monitored, with focus on a Tuesday night deadline and potential market impact if no agreement is reached.

Canadian Policy Outlook

Canada’s employment report on Friday is expected to show only a modest rebound and could move markets. Domestic events also include the March Labour Force Survey. A 5-year auction is expected to be a factor in the background and may add pressure on duration during the week. The stance remains positioned long Canadian 2-year bonds while tracking developments in the Middle East and incoming domestic data. Canadian rates are opening weaker, with yields climbing a few basis points to start the week. This is a direct echo of the US market, which is still reacting to the strong March payrolls report from last Friday that showed over 275,000 jobs were added. We see this trend of following US sentiment continuing in the near term. We expect most of the market’s turbulence in the coming weeks to be imported from the United States. All eyes will be on the upcoming US inflation data, which is forecasted to show core CPI remaining stubbornly above 3%, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve. Any surprise in that American report will likely have a much bigger impact on our market than domestic drivers.

Positioning And Key Risks

Looking back, we saw the Bank of Canada hold rates firm throughout most of 2025 to ensure the inflation that spiked a few years prior was truly beaten. That long pause has now given way to intense speculation about the timing of the first rate cut in this new cycle. This uncertainty about when the Bank will finally move is creating opportunities in the front end of the curve. Because of this, we continue to be biased toward being long 2-year Canada bonds, or equivalent derivatives. This position benefits if the market increases its bets on a Bank of Canada rate cut happening later this year, especially as our own inflation has cooled to 2.8%. It is a bet that our economic path will eventually have to diverge from the hotter US economy. However, we must watch for external shocks, particularly from the Middle East, where ongoing ceasefire negotiations could easily send WTI crude oil prices back above the $90 mark. This Friday’s Canadian Labour Force Survey could also shift expectations, but it would need to be a major surprise from the consensus forecast of a 15,000 job gain to truly change the narrative. The upcoming 5-year government bond auction will also add some temporary weight on rates this week. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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ISM data showed the US Services PMI eased to 54 in March from 56.1, below the 55 forecast. The reading pointed to slower growth in services. Inflation pressure rose as the Prices Paid Index increased to 70.7 from 63. Labour conditions weakened, with the Employment Index dropping to 45.2 from 51.8.

Services Growth Cools Inflation Risks Persist

Demand improved, as the New Orders Index climbed to 60.6 from 58.6. After the release, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 100.00 to fresh two-day lows. Ahead of the report, the ISM Services PMI had been scheduled for 14:00 GMT and was expected at 55.0 versus 56.1. The services sector is described as about two-thirds of the US economy, with focus also on employment, orders, and prices. EUR/USD traded up 0.25% near 1.1544 in late European trade. Levels cited included resistance near 1.1566 and 1.1600, then 1.1667, with support near 1.1500 and 1.1411; RSI remained in the 40.00–60.00 range. We are seeing a familiar pattern that reminds us of the market back in early 2025. Just as we saw then, the latest March 2026 ISM Services data shows a slight cooling in the sector, coming in at 53.5. However, the inflation component remains a major concern, with the Prices Paid index still elevated at 68.9.

Watching Key Dollar Levels And Volatility

Back in 2025, this mix of data pushed the US Dollar Index below the key 100.00 support level. We are now watching the 103.00 level closely as the current market prices in a less aggressive Federal Reserve. Any further signs of economic softness could trigger a similar break in the dollar. The conflicting signals from slowing growth and persistent price pressures are creating uncertainty, which points towards higher market volatility in the coming weeks. For options traders, this suggests that long volatility strategies could be profitable. Consider buying straddles on the EUR/USD, as this pair will react sharply to any change in Fed expectations. The weak hiring conditions we saw in the 2025 report, with the Employment Index dropping to 45.2, are a critical piece of the puzzle. Now, with the national unemployment rate having edged up to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2026, the labor market is showing clear signs of softening. This makes it harder for the Fed to stay aggressive, adding weight to bearish dollar positions. Given this outlook, we believe that short positions on US dollar futures are becoming more attractive. A decisive break below the 103.00 level on the DXY would be a strong signal to add to these positions. Traders should watch for this as a key trigger in the next one to two weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US ISM Services Prices Paid index rose to 70.7 in March from 63. This points to faster price growth for inputs in the services sector compared with the previous month. The jump in the ISM services prices paid to 70.7 is a significant signal of resurgent inflation. This figure, coming in well above expectations, indicates that price pressures in the largest part of the economy are accelerating, not cooling. For us, this data strongly suggests the Federal Reserve will be forced to maintain a hawkish stance in the coming weeks.

Implications For Fed Policy

We must now seriously reconsider the market’s pricing for interest rate cuts this year. Following the recent March Core CPI report which came in hot at 3.9%, this services data reinforces the idea that the Fed’s job is not done. Derivative positions should lean towards a higher-for-longer rate environment, making short positions in Fed Funds or SOFR futures an increasingly logical play. This data is also a headwind for equity markets, particularly for growth and tech stocks sensitive to interest rates. We should anticipate increased volatility and potential downside pressure on indices like the Nasdaq 100. In 2025, we saw how sticky inflation data led to sharp, albeit temporary, market corrections, making protective put options on the QQQ or SPY a prudent strategy. In the currency markets, this reinforces the case for a stronger U.S. dollar. The policy divergence between a hawkish Fed and other more dovish central banks is likely to widen. We should look to favor long dollar positions against currencies like the Euro or Swiss Franc, as their respective central banks remain on a path toward easing.

Positioning And Market Risks

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ISM data showed the US Services PMI eased to 54 in March from 56.1, below the 55 forecast. Prices Paid rose to 70.7 from 63, while the Employment Index fell to 45.2 from 51.8. The New Orders Index increased to 60.6 from 58.6. After the release, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 100.00 to a two-day low.

Market Reaction And Key Subindexes

Ahead of the report, the March Services PMI had been expected at 55.0, down from 56.1 in February. The services sector is described as about two-thirds of the US economy, with attention on employment, new orders and prices. EUR/USD was up 0.25% near 1.1544 in late European trade. It was trading below the 20-day EMA near 1.1566, with resistance near 1.1600 and 1.1667, and support near 1.1500 and 1.1411. The article also outlines GDP as a measure of economic growth, usually reported quarterly and compared with prior periods. It says higher GDP tends to support a currency and can push rates higher, which can weigh on gold. Looking back at the economic data from early 2025, the March ISM Services report was an important early signal for the market. It showed a conflict between slowing economic momentum and rising inflation pressures, alongside a weakening employment picture. This combination was an early sign of the stagflationary environment that we have been navigating for the past year.

Implications For 2026 Trading And Policy

This pattern of slowing growth alongside sticky inflation has continued into the first quarter of 2026. While fourth-quarter 2025 GDP came in at a sluggish 1.1%, the most recent CPI data for March 2026 showed inflation remains persistent at 3.8%, well above the Federal Reserve’s target. This has left the Fed in a difficult position, forced to hold interest rates steady to fight inflation even as the economy cools. As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which briefly dipped below 100 after that March 2025 report, has since found significant support and is now holding firm around 104.50. The high interest rate environment in the US continues to attract capital, keeping the dollar strong against other currencies. This is why we see EUR/USD trading closer to 1.0750 now, a stark contrast to the 1.15 levels seen over a year ago. For derivative traders, the primary takeaway is that this sustained economic uncertainty should keep volatility elevated. We believe positioning for sharp moves around key data releases, such as the upcoming FOMC meeting and CPI reports, is a prudent strategy. Using options to buy straddles on major indices like the S&P 500 allows a trader to profit from a significant price swing in either direction, without having to predict the outcome of the Fed’s policy dilemma. We should also focus on interest rate derivatives, particularly options on SOFR futures. The market is currently pricing in the possibility of rate cuts in late 2026, but the persistent inflation data creates significant doubt about that timeline. Buying call options on SOFR futures can be a cost-effective way to bet that a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown will force the Fed to cut rates sooner than the market anticipates. In the currency options market, the conflicting economic signals suggest range-bound strategies could be profitable. For a pair like EUR/USD, which is caught between a strong dollar due to high rates and a potentially weak dollar from a slowing economy, selling an iron condor could be effective. This strategy allows us to profit as long as the currency pair remains within a defined trading range over the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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