In Monday’s trading session, the S&P 500 closed with minimal change, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones showed varied movements. Investors awaited October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, predicting a 3.3% year-over-year growth in inflation. Moody’s highlighted the U.S. fiscal deficits and political gridlock but maintained its AAA credit rating. The dollar retreated slightly as traders anticipated the CPI release, impacting currency markets. The EUR/USD pair gained, reflecting a dovish market sentiment. In other currencies, USD/JPY remained near flat, and GBP/USD rose due to political developments and hawkish Bank of England comments. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, gold rose, and silver edged up, aligning with expectations of a steady Federal Reserve. Bitcoin fell influenced by a cautious Fed rate outlook but remained near trend highs.

Stock Market Updates

On Monday, the S&P 500 closed nearly unchanged, down 0.08% at 4,411.55, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.22% to close at 13,767.74. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.16%, gaining 54.77 points and closing at 34,337.87. Traders were cautiously awaiting the release of October’s consumer price index (CPI) data, a key indicator of inflation. Economists predicted a 3.3% year-over-year growth in headline inflation, with a 0.1% increase from the previous month. The market sentiment appeared cautious as investors monitored economic indicators for potential impacts on future Federal Reserve policies.

Additionally, Moody’s highlighted the United States’ “very large” fiscal deficits and political gridlock as factors influencing a negative outlook. Despite this, Moody’s reaffirmed the country’s credit rating at AAA, the highest level. This assessment followed Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA three months earlier, citing anticipated fiscal deterioration, a growing debt burden, and political disagreements on fiscal matters. Despite these concerns, Treasury yields remained flat on Monday, with the 10-year Treasury note yielding 4.638%, up about 1 basis point, indicating a somewhat stable market response to the negative fiscal outlook.

Data by Bloomberg

On Monday, the overall market experienced a slight decline of 0.08%. Among the sectors, Energy demonstrated the strongest performance with a gain of 0.71%, followed by Health Care at 0.57% and Consumer Staples at 0.37%. Consumer Discretionary and Industrials saw modest increases of 0.29% and 0.09%, respectively. In contrast, Materials, Financials, Communication Services, Information Technology, Real Estate, and Utilities all registered losses, with Utilities experiencing the most significant decline at 1.24%. The Information Technology sector led the declines with a decrease of 0.54%, contributing to the overall dip in the market on Monday.

Currency Market Updates

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar experienced a mild retreat, holding slightly lower in U.S. afternoon trade despite earlier gains. Traders were in a state of anticipation as they awaited the release of the key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Tuesday. According to Reuters consensus forecasts, the core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%, while headline inflation is projected to decrease from 3.7% to 3.3%, influenced by a decline in oil prices. Although the anticipated core price stability is not anticipated to significantly impact Federal Reserve rate expectations, with futures markets indicating a pause in rate hikes and potential cuts in H2 2024, the market sentiment appeared more dovish ahead of the CPI release. The euro to U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) pair rallied 0.14%, asserting its influence on the U.S. dollar index as traders positioned themselves cautiously in anticipation of the CPI data, which seemed to have a more dovish impact than last week’s comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell advocating for maintaining tight monetary policy to bring U.S. inflation back to the 2% target.

In other currency movements, the U.S. dollar to Japanese yen (USD/JPY) pair remained near flat after reaching a new high for 2023 at 151.92. However, it retreated from this peak due to reports of option-related activity, with approximately $3.45 billion set to mature during the week. Meanwhile, the British pound to U.S. dollar (GBP/USD) pair rose by 0.4% to 1.2276, driven by political developments in the UK that saw former Prime Minister David Cameron joining the Sunak government as foreign minister. Additionally, hawkish comments from Bank of England’s Catherine Mann, one of three Monetary Policy Committee members voting for a rate hike this month, contributed to the pound’s gains. Looking ahead, sterling traders are closely watching key events, including Tuesday’s UK employment and wage data and Wednesday’s UK CPI. Overall, Treasury yields saw a slight increase, gold rose by 0.5% to $1,946, and silver edged up 0.15% to $22.25, reflecting market expectations of a steady Federal Reserve and potential lower rates in 2024. Conversely, Bitcoin fell 1% to $36.7k, influenced by a more cautious Fed rate outlook, although it remained near trend highs supported by optimism surrounding crypto ETF registrations.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Gains Ground Amid Weaker Dollar and Eager Anticipation of Economic Data

The EUR/USD experienced a rise, finding support around 1.0560, propelled by a weakened US Dollar and declining US yields. This shift was influenced by a decrease in risk aversion, with Wall Street’s equity prices and commodity prices both on the upswing. As market attention turns to impending economic data releases from the US and Euro area, the focus centers on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with potential implications for interest rate decisions. A positive inflation outcome could strengthen the US Dollar, while a softer reading may boost the EUR/USD pair. Concurrently, Eurostat’s release of employment and growth data, with an expected 0.1% contraction, adds further anticipation, making the upcoming period crucial for EUR/USD dynamics.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved slightly higher on Monday, reaching above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading just above the middle band, indicating the potential for a consolidating move to try to reach the upper band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56, signaling that the EUR/USD is back in a neutral bias.

Resistance: 1.0725, 1.0755

Support: 1.0679, 1.0645

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Slide to Near-Month Low as Safe-Haven Appeal Wanes Amid Hawkish Global Policies

XAU/USD continues its decline, reaching $1,918.35, its lowest point in nearly a month. Despite a less optimistic market sentiment, safe-haven assets, particularly Gold, remain unattractive, contributing to the precious metal’s downward trend. Global policymakers maintain a hawkish stance, dispelling speculation of an end to the tightening cycle or potential rate cuts in 2024. Concerns persist about inflationary pressures, as central banks hesitate to raise rates consistently, and tight labor markets hinder economic slowdown. Investors await the release of October inflation figures from the United States on Tuesday for potential insights into future market dynamics.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, XAU/USD moved slightly higher on Monday and managed to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price of gold is moving just below the middle band, creating the possibility of moving slightly higher above the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 45, indicating that the XAU/USD pair is back in a neutral bias.

Resistance: $1,962, $1,992

Support: $1,945, $1,920

Economic Data

This week is anticipated to be one of heightened activity for market participants, with a particular focus on developments within the United States. Noteworthy economic indicators, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Sales data, are scheduled for release. These reports are expected to introduce substantial volatility and potentially set the directional course for the US Dollar.

It’s crucial for traders to be cautious and stay on top of the latest developments for a successful week of trading. 

UK Claimant Count Change (14 November 2023)

The Claimant Count Change in the UK rose to 20,400 in September 2023, up from -9,000 in August 2023.

The next figures will be released on 14 November, with analysts anticipating an increase of 25,000.

US Consumer Price Index (14 November 2023)

Consumer prices in the US increased by 0.4% month-on-month in September 2023, easing from a 0.6% rise recorded in August.

Analysts expect a 0.1% increase in the figures for October, which are due for release on 14 November.

Australia Wage Price Index (15 November 2023)

Australia’s seasonally adjusted wage price index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in Q2 2023, slightly down from the 3.7% increase seen in Q1 2023.

The data for Q3 2023 is set to be released on 15 November, with analysts expecting an uptick to 3.8%.

UK Consumer Price Index (15 November 2023)

The UK’s inflation rate remained steady at 6.7% in September 2023, consistent with the 18-month low observed in August.

The upcoming CPI figures are projected to indicate a further decrease to 4.9%.

US Producer Price Index (15 November 2023)

Producer prices in the US increased by 0.5% month-over-month in September 2023, the smallest rise in three months after a 0.7% increase in August.

The data for October 2023 will be released on 15 November, with analysts forecasting a modest 0.1% increase.

US Retail Sales (15 November 2023)

Retail sales in the US increased by 0.7% month-on-month in September 2023, following an increase of 0.8% in August.

Analysts expect a slight decrease of 0.1% in the October figures, which are scheduled for release on 15 November.

Employment in Australia (16 November 2023)

Employment in Australia grew by 6,700 in September 2023. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a three-month low of 3.6% in the same peried, a marginal decrease from the figure recorded in August.

Analysts expect the employment figures for October 2023 to reveal an increase of 24,900, with the unemployment rate predicted to remain steady at 3.6%. The data are scheduled to be released on 16 November.

UK Retail Sales (17 November 2023)

Retail sales in the UK declined by 0.9% month-over-month in September 2023, reversing a 0.4% increase in August.

Analysts anticipate that UK retail sales for October 2023, which are to be released on 17 November, will increase by 0.3%.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

On Thursday, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw declines as bond yields surged, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing over 12 basis points. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on inflation added to the market’s dip. While Disney posted a 6.9% increase in individual stock performance, Arm dipped by 5.2%, and MGM Resorts saw a 1.1% decline. The currency market experienced changes in the US dollar’s value, with anticipation for upcoming CPI and PPI reports. EUR/USD decreased despite weaker Eurozone data, USD/JPY faced resistance, and Sterling saw a decline, all impacted by economic data and central bank policies.

Stock Market Updates

On Thursday, the stock market experienced a reversal of fortune, ending an eight-day winning streak for the S&P 500. The benchmark index, the S&P 500, saw a decline of 0.81%, closing at 4,347.35 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.94% to settle at 13,521.45 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a decline of 0.65%, losing 220.33 points to close at 33,891.94. This decline in stocks was largely attributed to a sharp jump in bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing more than 12 basis points to 4.634%, and the 30-year bond rate jumping about 11 basis points to 4.772%. The situation was further exacerbated by a weak U.S. Treasury auction. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks about the need to address inflation also contributed to the stock market’s dip, despite the recent slowing in the inflation rate, which had been seen as a positive sign for policymakers. The market’s performance for the week showed a mixed picture, with the Dow down 0.5%, the S&P 500 down approximately 0.3%, and the Nasdaq being the only major average in positive territory with a potential 0.3% gain.

In terms of individual stocks, Disney stood out with a 6.9% increase, driven by better-than-expected profit results and an expanded cost-cutting plan. In contrast, Arm dipped by 5.2% following its first quarterly report as a public company, and MGM Resorts saw a 1.1% decline despite posting strong results and announcing a new share buyback program. The prevailing sentiment in the market was that interest rate volatility was taking center stage, with market participants closely monitoring movements in interest rates to determine the market’s future direction.

Data by Bloomberg

On Thursday, across all sectors, there was a general decline in the stock market with an overall decrease of 0.81%. The most significant losses were observed in the Consumer Discretionary and Health Care sectors, which experienced declines of 1.82% and 2.10%, respectively. Utilities and Real Estate also saw substantial drops at 1.38% and 1.51%, while Materials exhibited a significant decline of 0.85%. The Information Technology, Consumer Staples, and Financials sectors had relatively moderate decreases, ranging from 0.40% to 0.41%, while the Industrials, Energy, and Communication Services sectors had smaller declines of 0.25%, 0.27%, and 0.30%, respectively.

Currency Market Updates

In the currency market, the US dollar experienced little change at the outset of the week but later saw a rise in value alongside Treasury yields following a 30-year bond auction. Investors were eagerly anticipating the release of CPI and PPI reports scheduled for the upcoming Tuesday and Wednesday, as these reports would provide essential data for the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent policy. However, this came in the wake of the release of Thursday’s continued claims, which showed an unexpected increase, signaling that the October employment report had fallen significantly short of expectations. Despite this, the upward movement in Treasury yields was primarily driven by concerns about rising government debt issuance surpassing demand. The market remained watchful for further developments, especially as the Fed’s next likely move was being priced in as a rate cut in mid-2024, and major gains for the US dollar might hinge on the forthcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data, requiring these figures to be significantly hotter than anticipated.

Meanwhile, in the currency pairs, the EUR/USD exchange rate decreased by 0.15% as it tested recent buying opportunities with the hope that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle might start reversing by mid-2024. This occurred despite the Eurozone’s economic data showing persistent weakness compared to that of the United States. The USD/JPY pair registered a slight increase but faced resistance at levels above 151. This resistance came from key weekly range top targets that had not both been closed above since the Federal Reserve’s initial rate hike in March 2022. Sterling also saw a 0.16% decline, even after Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill made statements advocating for the maintenance of current interest rates to curb inflation, a change in tone from earlier in the week when he discussed the possibility of cuts next year. The currency market remains highly sensitive to economic data and central bank policies, with the upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI reports poised to have a significant impact on the US dollar’s trajectory.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Bears Gain Momentum as Powell’s Remarks Boost US Dollar

The EUR/USD took a sharp downward turn in response to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, establishing a clear bearish trend. While European Central Bank (ECB) officials initially supported the Euro, the market anticipates unchanged rates, with the focus shifting to when the first-rate cut might occur. The US dollar’s strength is bolstered by a strong US economy, as emphasized by Powell, who expressed concerns about inflation and triggered a dollar rally and soaring US bond yields. This shift in sentiment, combined with ongoing market analysis, continues to shape the EUR/USD landscape.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved slightly lower on Thursday, reaching the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading around the lower band, indicating the potential for a consolidating move to try to reach the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 46, signaling that the EUR/USD is back in neutral bias.

Resistance: 1.0695, 1.0725

Support: 1.0645, 1.0615

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Rebounds Amidst Cautious Optimism and Fed Officials’ Insights

In the first half of the day, the US Dollar appeared strong, but it changed direction after the American opening, prompting XAU/USD to bounce back from a weekly low of $1,944.71 and trade above $1,960. Financial markets remain cautiously optimistic, anticipating a pause in monetary tightening by central banks. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin’s positive remarks about the economy and inflation progress added to the market sentiment, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the uncertainty of recent policies’ effects. Market participants await US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s potential comments on monetary policy during an IMF panel discussion titled “Monetary Challenges in a Global Economy.”

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, XAU/USD moves slightly higher on Thursday and is able to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price of gold is moving just below the middle band, creating a possibility to push lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 41, indicating a bearish bias for the XAU/USD pair.

Resistance: $1,962, $1,992

Support: $1,945, $1,920

Economic Data

Time is of the essence in the global pursuit of sustainability, and Latin America stands as a key player in shaping a greener, more environmentally responsible future. The potential of this region to take centre stage as a worldwide leader in the production and export of commodities vital for the transition to cleaner energy cannot be underestimated. 

Latin America’s abundance of natural resources is nothing short of astonishing. With vast reserves of minerals like lithium, copper, nickel, and cobalt, the region is an essential provider of the building blocks for batteries and renewable energy technologies, which are at the core of the global clean energy revolution. 

The demand for these resources, driven by the ever-increasing need for electric vehicle batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines, continues to surge, and Latin America holds the key to driving this vital transition. 

However, Latin America’s contribution to the global commodities market doesn’t stop at hard minerals. The region is a major player in the agricultural commodities sector. Staples such as soybeans, corn, and sugar are not only crucial for global food security but also integral to the production of sustainable biofuels. In a world where reducing carbon emissions is a priority, Latin America’s agricultural sector plays a pivotal role in supporting cleaner energy alternatives. 

Projections from the Inter-American Development Bank are nothing short of extraordinary. They indicate that Latin America’s exports of “green commodities” have the potential to reach a staggering $1.5 trillion by 2050, representing a fivefold increase from current levels. 

This growth is more than just impressive figures; it has the power to generate millions of new jobs, infuse energy into local economies, and foster sustainable development across the entire region. It’s a chance for both financial success and positive change that’s too substantial to ignore. 

The Green Transition: A Game-Changer 

The world stands at the precipice of a momentous transformation in energy generation and consumption. The clean energy revolution, propelled by technological innovations and a growing environmental consciousness, is reshaping our relationship with power production. 

At the vanguard of this transition lie solar, wind, and electric vehicle technologies, which are not only altering our perspectives on energy but also driving a remarkable upsurge in the demand for specific critical metals. 

The global clean energy market is on a trajectory of exponential growth, with predictions of soaring from $2.1 trillion in 2021 to a staggering $6.5 trillion by 2030. This extraordinary expansion is underpinned by the sustained adoption of clean energy solutions, rendering it one of the most promising sectors for investment and economic expansion. 

As we observe the widespread embrace of solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles, the demand for critical metals has reached unprecedented heights. These metals, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, lie at the heart of these pioneering technologies.

Lithium-ion batteries, in particular, have emerged as the preferred power source for electric vehicles, portable electronics, and renewable energy storage solutions, leading to a skyrocketing demand that has reverberated through the global commodities market. 

Latin America commands an astounding share of the world’s known lithium and cobalt reserves, boasting over 60% of lithium reserves and more than 40% of cobalt reserves. This abundant wealth places the region in a position of paramount importance in guaranteeing the supply of these critical metals vital for fuelling the clean energy revolution. 

In this era of transformation, Latin America emerges as a pivotal player, possessing substantial reserves of the critical metals essential for powering the clean energy revolution. The region’s wealth of resources positions it as a central hub for providing the raw materials required for this global shift towards sustainability, encompassing extensive lithium deposits and significant cobalt and rare earth element reserves.

Copper, often referred to as the “metal of the future,” with its remarkable conductivity, holds an indispensable role in electrical and electronic applications and renewable energy technologies. Latin America, in this context, stands as a global leader in copper mining, underscoring its dominance and the far-reaching implications this holds for the global clean energy movement. 

Furthermore, in the realm of lithium, a crucial component in electric vehicle batteries, Latin America’s significance takes centre stage. As the global adoption of electric vehicles continues to gain momentum, the region’s extensive lithium resources become pivotal in sustaining the shift towards cleaner transportation solutions and energy storage. 

With projections indicating that electric vehicle sales are set to reach 10 million units in 2023, escalating to a remarkable 40 million units by 2025, Latin America’s role in supplying the requisite resources for this electrifying revolution becomes even more pronounced. 

At this pivotal juncture, Latin America’s status as a powerhouse of critical metals holds global implications. As the clean energy revolution gains momentum, these abundant resources will not only drive economic growth in Latin America but also play a significant role in the worldwide transition towards a greener and more sustainable future. 

Soft Commodities: Latin America’s Hidden Potential 

In the world of commodities, soft commodities often remain overshadowed by their harder counterparts, yet they play a vital role in the global market. Soft commodities comprise various agricultural products, cultivated and harvested rather than mined. These essentials include coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton, and more, serving as daily necessities and underpinning international trade. 

These agricultural commodities are not only pivotal for sustaining global food security but also find versatile applications in various industries. Traders looking to broaden their commodities portfolio must grasp the dynamics of this sector. 

Latin America emerges as a prominent player in this domain, boasting a climate and fertile soils well-suited for cultivating these crops. 

In the realm of coffee, Latin America’s dominance is indisputable. The region contributes over 40% of the world’s coffee supply. Brazil, in particular, holds the crown as the world’s leading coffee producer, with a share exceeding 30% of global coffee output. As global coffee consumption is poised to grow by 2% annually in the coming decade, Latin America is poised to meet this escalating demand, cementing its position as a leader in coffee production. 

Shifting to cocoa, Latin America produces about 20% of the world’s cocoa. Nations like Ecuador and the Dominican Republic, the fifth- and sixth-largest cocoa producers globally, are renowned for their high-quality cocoa beans. With global cocoa consumption expected to grow by 3% annually over the next decade, Latin America’s role as the world’s primary cocoa producer is pivotal, ensuring a steady supply to the global chocolate and confectionery industries. 

Latin America’s sugar production also commands attention, contributing more than 25% to the world’s sugar supply. Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, accounts for over 20% of global production. Notably, Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina are key contributors to the world’s sugar production. As global sugar consumption is projected to grow by 1% annually in the next decade, Latin America’s significance in sugar production and export is set to rise. 

In the cotton industry, Latin America plays a substantial role, producing about 15% of the world’s cotton. Brazil ranks as the second-largest cotton producer globally, after India, while countries like Argentina, Paraguay, and Colombia significantly contribute to this sector. With global cotton consumption forecasted to grow by 1.5% annually over the next decade, Latin America’s stature as a major cotton producer and exporter underscores its role in the global textile and fashion industries. 

The future holds promise for Latin American soft commodities, driven by the expected global population growth to 9.7 billion by 2050. As demand for food and agricultural products surges, market trends point to ample room for expansion and innovation. 

Other Valuable Commodities in the Region 

Beyond the spotlight on critical metals, Latin America’s mineral wealth offers diverse trading prospects. 

Silver 

Latin America ranks as the world’s largest silver producer, contributing about 50% of the global silver output. Leading silver producers within the region include Mexico, Peru, and Argentina. Silver’s industrial and investment applications make it an adaptable choice for traders exploring this versatile commodity. 

Tin 

Latin America further solidifies its position as the world’s third-largest tin producer, accounting for more than 15% of global tin production. Notable contributors to this sector are Bolivia, Peru, and Brazil. Latin America’s role in tin production is vital for the global electronics and manufacturing industries. 

Nickel 

The region also holds the title of the world’s fifth-largest nickel producer, contributing over 10% to global nickel production. Brazil, Cuba, and Mexico stand out as leading nickel producers within the region. With diverse applications spanning stainless steel to batteries, nickel offers traders opportunities in a pivotal industrial commodity. 

Oil Sector Growth 

The region claims the title of the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, accounting for over 10% of the global oil output. Key countries leading this industry in Latin America are Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia. 

Latin America’s strategic significance in the global oil market is evident through its substantial oil reserves, estimated at over 330 billion barrels. These reserves rank second only to the Middle East, underscoring the region’s vital role in global energy supply. 

Anticipating an expansion in production, Latin America is expected to increase its output by over 1 million barrels per day by 2030. This growth exemplifies the region’s dedication to meeting global energy demands and adapting to the evolving dynamics of the oil industry. 

Key Factors to Watch 

Successful LATAM commodity trading demands vigilance in observing critical factors: geopolitics, environmental rules, and technological advances. Understanding these elements is key to thriving in the dynamic commodities market. 

• ^{Geopolitical Factors: Keep an eye on international conflicts, trade disputes, and political instability, as they can disrupt supply chains and impact commodity prices.} 
• ^{Environmental Regulations: Environmental policies, emissions standards, and sustainability initiatives can significantly influence commodity demand, especially in the clean energy sector. Monitor regulatory changes closely.} 
• ^{Technological Advancements: Stay updated on mining and energy production innovations, as they can alter supply, production costs, and market dynamics. New technologies can create opportunities and challenges for traders in the commodities market.} 

In conclusion, Latin America’s immense potential as a commodities market powerhouse is undeniable. Forex traders have a unique opportunity to participate in this growth story – simply open a live account with VT Markets and start trading. However, success in the LATAM commodities market requires careful research, risk management, and a keen understanding of the region’s evolving dynamics. As Latin America charts a course towards a greener and more prosperous future, traders who venture into this market have the potential to secure substantial rewards. 

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be server maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Hours :
11th of November 2023 (Saturday) 00:00 – 08:00 (GMT+2)

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:

1. The price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.

2. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed.

3. Please refer to MT4/MT5 for the latest update on the completion and market opening time. Our services will be back online once the maintenance is completed.

4. Please note that during the maintenance period, the Client Portal may be unable to operate or unable to log in.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected]

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued their winning streaks, marking their longest runs in two years, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a minor decline. Earnings reports from companies like Rivian, Robinhood, and Warner Bros. Discovery influenced stock movements, with Roblox reporting strong results. In the currency market, the US dollar stabilized after earlier gains, with a dovish outlook on the Federal Reserve. The euro rebounded, while the USD/JPY pair faced resistance and potential intervention threats. Sterling remained flat, and the Australian and Canadian dollars, as well as the offshore yuan, fell due to various concerns. The week’s economic calendar is relatively light, with jobless claims and sentiment data as key points of interest.

Stock Market Updates

The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to eight consecutive days, marking its longest run in two years. The index gained 0.1%, closing at 4,382.78, which matched an eight-day winning streak from November 2021. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite also saw gains, rising by 0.08% to reach 13,650.41, making it the ninth positive day and the longest streak in two years. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 0.12% decline, losing 40.33 points and breaking its best win streak since July. Investors are keeping an eye on upcoming inflation and economic data to gauge the future trajectory of equity gains. While the economy is showing signs of slowing, it is not plummeting drastically.

In earnings news, Rivian’s stock slipped 2.4% despite posting better-than-expected results. Robinhood’s shares declined by 14.3% after significant drops in trading volumes. Warner Bros. Discovery faced a 19% decline, its worst day since March 2021, due to a wider-than-expected loss. In contrast, Roblox saw an 11.8% increase in its stock price after reporting strong results. The S&P has gained 4.5% in November, the Nasdaq has surged 6.2%, and the Dow has risen by 3.2% for the month. Earnings season is winding down, with the majority of companies in the S&P 500 surpassing earnings estimates, but only 62% have exceeded revenue expectations, reflecting the impact of slowing demand. The season continues with earnings reports from companies like Walt Disney, Affirm Holdings, and MGM Resorts.

Data by Bloomberg

On Wednesday, the overall market saw a slight gain of 0.10%. Information Technology and Real Estate sectors performed well, with gains of 0.64% and 0.58% respectively, while Industrials and Materials sectors also showed positive movements at 0.27% and 0.26%. However, the Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors experienced losses of -0.14% and -0.25%, and the Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors saw larger declines at -0.42% and -0.73%. The Energy sector had the most significant decline, dropping by -1.22% during the day.

Currency Market Updates

In the latest currency market updates, the US dollar index remained relatively flat, relinquishing earlier gains. This stabilization came as Treasury yields showed signs of faltering after a 10-year auction later in the day. The dollar had been supported by concerns about rising Treasury supply lifting yields, but confidence in this support diminished following successful 3-year and 10-year auctions earlier in the week. The outlook for the US dollar and the Federal Reserve remains dovish, with the market pricing in a minimal chance of another Fed rate hike and even potential cuts by mid-year. Next week’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings are forecasted to be modest at just 0.1% month-on-month, further reinforcing the dovish sentiment in the market.

In other developments, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from early losses, supported by a broader pullback in the US dollar and rising 2-year bund-Treasury yield spreads. However, the eurozone continued to experience poor economic data, and the European Central Bank (ECB) resisted easing expectations. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair saw a 0.3% increase but faced significant technical and options resistance at 151. It also grappled with the risk of intervention threats or actual USD/JPY sales from the Japanese Ministry of Finance. In this environment, the unexpected decline in energy prices, coupled with global geopolitical tensions such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, favored major importers like Japan and the eurozone over exporters like the United States. Sterling remained flat, with expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in mid-2024 despite UK inflation remaining high at 6.7%, indicating negative real gilts yields. Additionally, the Australian and Canadian dollars fell 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, while the offshore yuan lost 0.12% due to ongoing concerns about China’s property sector and U.S. lawmakers’ intent to increase tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles. The week’s economic calendar is relatively light, with jobless claims on Thursday and Michigan November sentiment data on Friday.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Rebounds Despite US Dollar Strength and ECB’s Dovish Outlook

The EUR/USD staged a rebound during the American session, regaining ground to reach the 1.0700 area, despite a strengthening US Dollar against riskier currencies. The final reading of the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) displayed an annual rate of 3.8%, the lowest since August 2021, indicating a slowing economy and potential recession, leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to halt its tightening cycle, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, Eurozone Retail Sales declined slightly in September, with August figures revised higher. In the US, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s panel discussion and comments from Fed officials will be closely monitored, with the market expecting a dovish stance and anticipating confirmation from the upcoming US Consumer Price Index report on monetary policy expectations.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved slightly higher on Wednesday, reaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading around the middle band, indicating the potential for a consolidating move around the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57, signaling that the EUR/USD is back in neutral bias.

Resistance: 1.0711, 1.0765

Support: 1.0675, 1.0615

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Faces Persistent Pressure Amidst Uncertain Rate Hike Outlook and Strong US Dollar Demand

Persistent demand for the US Dollar is keeping the XAU/USD pair near a two-week low of $1,950.93 per troy ounce. Central bank officials from the United States and Europe have downplayed the likelihood of imminent rate cuts but left room for potential tightening if inflation trends change. While global equities waver, Wall Street maintains its positive stance, and low Treasury yields raise questions about the feasibility of higher yields tightening financial conditions. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming panel discussion may shed more light on the monetary policy outlook, impacting the gold market.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, XAU/USD moves lower on Tuesday and is able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price of gold is moving near the lower band, creating a possibility to push lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 31, indicating a bearish bias for the XAU/USD pair.

Resistance: $1,962, $1,992

Support: $1,945, $1,920

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].