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· The U.S. dollar saw a modest increase, with its strength limited by low U.S. Treasury yields, indicating market caution.
· Traders are eagerly awaiting the core PCE deflator data, a key inflation metric preferred by the Federal Reserve, which could significantly impact the central bank’s policy direction and market volatility.
· Predictions for January’s core CPI suggest a 0.4% month-over-month increase and a slight annual deceleration from 2.9% to 2.8%, indicating a minimal shift towards lower inflation.
· Recent CPI and PPI reports for the same period have been significantly higher than expected, suggesting that investors might be underestimating inflation risks, which could lead to surprises in the upcoming data.
· A higher-than-expected PCE report may lead to Wall Street adjusting its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and could delay the anticipated easing cycle, potentially increasing U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar value while negatively affecting gold prices.
· Analysis of FOMC meeting probabilities as of February 28 reflects market anticipation and interest rate expectations.
· The article will also cover technical analyses for currency pairs EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and gold, focusing on recent price trends and identifying key levels for potential buying or selling pressure, useful for risk management in trading strategies.
STOCK MARKET:
· US stock futures dropped slightly as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s important inflation metric to discern future interest rate directions. Bitcoin continued its ascent, surpassing $63,000.
· S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both saw a decrease of around 0.3%, while European stocks experienced slight gains amidst a busy earnings announcement day. Notable movements included Moncler SpA’s rise after exceeding profit expectations, Air France-KLM’s drop due to a fourth-quarter loss, and Anheuser-Busch InBev’s decline after failing to meet profit forecasts.
· The market is preparing for the release of the US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, expected to highlight the Federal Reserve’s challenge in reaching its 2% inflation target. This data could indicate the Fed’s continued cautious approach towards easing monetary policy.
· Asian stock markets improved, led by a rebound in Chinese shares. The yen experienced a notable increase against the dollar following indications from the Bank of Japan that it might end its negative interest rate policy.
· Bitcoin’s value neared $64,000, continuing its growth spurred by new demand from exchange-traded funds, approaching its record high of just below $69,000 set in 2021.
· Treasury yields rose slightly after a bond rally, with the 10-year yield decreasing by four basis points and the two-year yield by six points, as per the previous day’s trading.
· Comments from New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic emphasized the ongoing battle against inflation and urged patience with policy adjustments, respectively.
· Market predictions align with Federal Reserve officials’ December projections, anticipating roughly 80 basis points of easing by year’s end, equivalent to three rate cuts.
· The dollar weakened against other currencies, particularly the yen, as traders expect a narrowing interest rate gap between Japan and the US.
· Upcoming key events include economic data releases from Germany and the US, statements from Federal Reserve officials, and PMI reports from China and the Eurozone.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
On Wednesday, stocks saw a decline as investors awaited an important inflation report due later in the week, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all experiencing losses. Notable decliners included UnitedHealth, Intel, Alphabet, and Urban Outfitters, the latter due to disappointing quarterly results. The market’s attention is now on January’s forthcoming personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, a crucial inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve. This anticipation comes amid mixed movements in the currency market, where the dollar index made slight gains while investors closely monitor upcoming inflation reports from the U.S. and the eurozone. These reports are pivotal for future monetary policy and interest rate expectations, especially with predictions leaning towards rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) within the year, amidst contrasting inflationary trends in the U.S. and eurozone.
Stock Market Updates
Stocks experienced a decline on Wednesday as the market anticipated an important inflation report set to be released later in the week. The S&P 500 dropped slightly by 0.17%, closing at 5,069.76, while the Nasdaq Composite experienced a more significant fall of 0.55%, ending at 15,947.74. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a minor decrease, losing 23.39 points, or 0.06%, to close at 38,949.02, marking its third consecutive day of losses. Among the notable decliners were UnitedHealth, which fell nearly 3%, and tech giants Intel and Alphabet, which dropped 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. Additionally, Urban Outfitters saw a significant decrease of 12.8% following its announcement of weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results.
The market’s focus is now on the upcoming personal consumption expenditure reading for January, a critical inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve. This report is highly anticipated as investors and analysts gauge the potential for continued economic growth and the impact of inflation on monetary policy. The market’s recent performance has been less robust, with the major indexes on track for their second negative week in the last three, despite having reached record highs recently. The downturn, especially in the tech sector, has sparked debates about the durability of the market rally, which has been partly driven by enthusiasm over advancements in artificial intelligence.
On Wednesday, the overall market experienced a slight downturn, with all sectors combined seeing a decrease of 0.17%. Despite this general downtrend, several sectors managed to post gains, led by Real Estate, which saw a notable increase of 1.28%. Other sectors that experienced growth included Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Staples, with increases ranging from 0.09% to 0.35%. On the flip side, some sectors faced declines, with Energy, Health Care, Information Technology, and Communication Services witnessing drops between -0.20% and -0.92%, indicating a mixed performance across different areas of the market.
Currency Market Updates
The currency market is currently experiencing nuanced movements as investors anxiously await inflation reports from the U.S. and eurozone, which could significantly influence the trajectory of risk-sensitive currencies. The dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.1%, though it retreated from its early Wednesday highs, indicating a cautious stance among traders. The EUR/USD pair dipped marginally by 0.05%, recovering after testing key support levels amid a broad-based rise in the dollar earlier in the day. The focus now shifts to Thursday’s release of the U.S. core PCE and eurozone CPI reports, which are expected to play a critical role in determining whether the recent reduction in anticipated Fed rate cuts for 2024—and the consequent support this has lent to the dollar—will continue or come to a halt.
Market expectations are leaning towards the Federal Reserve beginning to cut rates by June, with a total of 81 basis points of easing anticipated by the end of the year. Similarly, a June rate cut by the ECB is fully priced in, with expectations of 90 basis points of cuts throughout the year. These developments come as core PCE in the U.S. is forecasted to rise, contrasting with December’s figures, and with the euro zone’s overall and core CPI also set for release, offering further insights into inflationary trends. Amidst this backdrop, the USD/JPY pair has seen a slight increase, attempting to continue its upward trend as markets digest varying signals from Fed speakers and global economic indicators, highlighting the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the significant impact of central bank policies and economic data on currency valuations.
The EUR/USD pair experienced a decline early Friday, pressured by disappointing sentiment indicators from Europe and a significant disparity in US GDP figures that maintained the currency pair’s position within a familiar range midweek. With a packed schedule, Thursday’s focus shifts to German Retail Sales and CPI data, alongside the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation figures. The week will conclude with Friday’s release of the pan-European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February, providing critical insights into economic health and potential currency movement directions.
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD moved slightly lower and was able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving just below the middle band, suggesting a potential upward movement to reach above the middle band. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position at 51, signaling a neutral outlook for this currency pair.
Resistance: 1.0858, 1.0896
Support: 1.0823, 1.0783
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
XAU/USD Steady Amid Economic Expansion and Fed Remarks
Gold prices remained stable near $2,030 on Wednesday, achieving a modest increase of 0.17% as the US economy showed signs of expansion according to the latest BEA report. Despite the US GDP for the last quarter of 2023 slightly missing expectations and mixed retail and wholesale inventory data, a fall in US Treasury bond yields has supported gold prices, keeping them near monthly and weekly highs, just below the 50-day SMA. Meanwhile, comments from Federal Reserve Regional Presidents, Susan Collins and John Williams, about potentially easing policy later in the year while still not meeting the core inflation goal of 2%, have influenced market sentiment, alongside a cautious Wall Street trading mostly in the red.
On Wednesday, XAU/USD moved slightly higher to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving just below the upper band, suggesting a potential higher movement to reach above the upper band and reach the resistance level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57, signaling a neutral but bullish outlook for this pair.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
On Tuesday, the stock market displayed mixed outcomes with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experiencing slight gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average faced a minor decline amidst anticipation for upcoming inflation data. Corporate earnings, particularly from Macy’s and Lowe’s, alongside economic indicators, played significant roles in market dynamics. Meanwhile, the currency market witnessed subtle shifts, with the Japanese yen strengthening against the dollar following Japan’s higher-than-expected core CPI report. Investor focus remains on key economic releases, including the personal consumption expenditure price index, with global monetary policy expectations influencing market sentiment.
Stock Market Updates
On Tuesday, the stock market saw mixed results as investors awaited crucial inflation data expected later in the week. The S&P 500 edged up by 0.17% to 5,078.18, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a modest increase of 0.37%, closing at 16,035.30. Contrarily, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight downturn, dropping by 96.82 points, or 0.25%, to end at 38,972.41. Notable movements included Macy’s, which surged 3.4% after announcing plans to close approximately 150 underperforming stores due to a previous revenue shortfall. Additionally, Lowe’s shares increased by 1.7% following an earnings beat, with Zoom Video and Hims & Hers Health also making significant gains after surpassing Wall Street’s earnings expectations.
A mix of corporate earnings reports and economic indicators influenced the market’s dynamics. The utilities sector led the market with a 1.9% increase, while the communications services and technology sectors also saw gains. This activity followed a decline from record highs the previous week, spurred by Nvidia’s impressive earnings. Moreover, investor sentiment was affected by a drop in consumer confidence amid concerns over a potential labor market slowdown and a divisive political climate, as reported by the Conference Board. Additionally, a decrease in orders for long-lasting goods in January, particularly in transportation, underscored these economic uncertainties. As investors look ahead, the forthcoming release of the personal consumption expenditure price index and personal income data will be closely scrutinized for insights into economic health and monetary policy direction.
On Tuesdayday, the overall market saw modest gains, with all sectors collectively up by 0.17%. Utilities led the performance with a significant increase of 1.89%, followed by Communication Services and Materials, which rose by 1.03% and 0.35%, respectively. Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials also experienced gains, though more modest, ranging from 0.12% to 0.27%. Information Technology and Real Estate sectors saw minimal increases, whereas Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Energy sectors faced declines, with Energy recording the largest drop at -0.43%.
Currency Market Updates
The currency market saw nuanced movements with the dollar index slightly declining by 0.09%, influenced by a mix of supportive corporate month-end flows and weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data concerning durable goods and consumer confidence. The Japanese yen emerged as a notable performer, appreciating following a report that showed Japan’s core CPI rising above forecasts. This development came amidst static policy pricing from major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, with the market participants keenly awaiting further key data releases scheduled for later in the week and the next.
The FX landscape was further characterized by the lingering weakness of the USD against the JPY, spurred by Japan’s inflation data, while the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and other major currency pairs saw marginal gains. Despite some reasons to overlook the disappointing U.S. durable goods data, attributed partly to Boeing’s challenges, the misses in economic reports have heightened the anticipation for upcoming releases on core PCE, income, spending, and employment data. Market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path remains a focal point, especially after Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid’s hawkish remarks, contrasting with the market’s reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts. The evolving monetary policy expectations for the ECB, BoE, and BoJ also play a critical role in shaping the currency market dynamics, with all eyes on the upcoming eurozone CPI and U.S. core PCE data to gauge potential shifts in monetary policy and currency valuations.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD Stabilizes Amid Anticipation of Key Economic Data
The EUR/USD pair has been hovering around the 1.0850 mark, showing little movement as traders await impactful economic releases. Following a more significant than expected decline in US Durable Goods Orders for January, market focus now shifts to upcoming US GDP figures, German Retail Sales, CPI data, and the US PCE inflation report. These forthcoming data points are crucial for gauging the economic health of both regions and could potentially influence the currency pair’s direction.
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD moved slightly lower and was able to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving around the middle band, suggesting a potential downward movement to reach below the middle band. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position at 53, signaling a neutral outlook for this currency pair.
Resistance: 1.0858, 1.0896
Support: 1.0823, 1.0783
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
XAU/USD See Modest Gains Amid Weakening Dollar and Anticipation for Key Economic Reports
Gold (XAU/USD) experienced a slight increase in its price during Tuesday’s mid-North American session, trading at $2,034.88, a 0.18% gain, amid a backdrop of falling US Treasury bond yields and a weakening US Dollar, as indicated by a 0.05% drop in the US Dollar Index (DXY). This modest uptick occurs as the precious metal hovers around the 50-day Simple Moving Average, with investors keenly awaiting the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report and latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which are anticipated to be significant factors that could drive Gold out of its current $2,020-$2,050 trading range. The outlook is further clouded by the recent report on Durable Goods Orders for January, which fell more sharply than expected, and mixed Home Prices data, suggesting a potentially volatile period ahead for Gold prices.
On Tuesday, XAU/USD moved lower to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving just above the middle band, suggesting a potential consolidation movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53, signaling a neutral outlook for this pair.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
The DXY index, which measures the US dollar’s performance, showed limited movement on Monday despite a slight increase in US Treasury yields.
Investors are adopting a cautious approach in anticipation of Thursday’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator release, a critical inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve.
January’s core PCE is anticipated to rise by 0.4% from December, potentially reducing the annual rate from 2.9% to 2.8%, indicating a modest yet positive development.
There’s a possibility that the actual figures could exceed expectations, mirroring recent trends seen in CPI and PPI reports, which could impact traders’ outlooks.
Upcoming US PCE Report Analysis:
An unexpected increase in the PCE data might lead to higher interest rate expectations, suggesting a delayed start or smaller reductions in the easing cycle by policymakers.
Such a scenario would likely result in higher US Treasury yields, benefiting the US dollar.
Technical Analysis of USD Currency Pairs:
The latter part of the article shifts focus to the technical analysis of EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY currency pairs.
It will explore market sentiment and pinpoint crucial support and resistance levels that may influence the pairs’ movements in the near future.
STOCK MARKET:
Market Performance:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) decreased by 0.2%.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped by 0.4% after reaching new highs last week.
The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) experienced a 0.1% decline, following a strong performance in tech stocks.
Inflation Data Anticipation:
Investors are on edge as they await new inflation figures that could challenge the recent stock market rally, particularly after Nvidia’s (NVDA) impressive results.
Concerns are mounting over a potential surprise in the upcoming Thursday PCE index report, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, especially after a higher-than-expected CPI report earlier in February led to market volatility.
Economic Indicators and Corporate Results:
This week’s inflation report is a key focus, alongside updates on consumer and manufacturing sectors, which will provide insights into the US economy’s condition.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) is nearing a $1 trillion market valuation following a record annual profit, with Warren Buffett highlighting the company’s durability and acknowledging Charlie Munger’s contributions.
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) shares surged 6% after announcing a dividend increase and surpassing fourth-quarter sales forecasts.
Coinbase (COIN) shares rose 16% as Bitcoin (BTC-USD) remained above $54,000, reflecting positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
In forex trading, correlations show how different currency pairs or financial instruments move together. For example, when the EUR/USD pair goes up, the USD/CHF pair often goes down, and vice versa.
source: investopedia
Understanding these relationships is crucial. It helps traders predict market movements, manage risks, and make smarter decisions. In this guide, we will explore correlations in forex trading and how you can use them to improve your strategies. Let’s get started!
Understanding correlations
Correlation in forex refers to the statistical relationship between different currency pairs or financial instruments and how they move in relation to each other.
It is measured on a scale from -1 to +1, where -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation (inverse movement), +1 indicates a perfect positive correlation (same direction movement), and 0 indicates no correlation (movements are independent of each other).
Correlation types source: Simply Psychology
Understanding correlation helps traders anticipate how one asset’s movement may affect another.
Positive correlation: This occurs when two currency pairs or assets tend to move in the same direction. For example, if the EUR/USD pair goes up, the GBP/USD pair also tends to rise. Traders can use positive correlations to diversify their portfolios by trading multiple currency pairs that move in tandem, potentially reducing overall risk exposure.
Negative correlation: In contrast, negative correlation occurs when two currency pairs or assets move in opposite directions. For instance, when the USD/JPY pair increases, the price of Gold may decrease. Traders can use negative correlations as a hedging strategy to offset potential losses in one position with gains in another, helping to mitigate risk during market fluctuations.
Neutral correlation: Neutral correlation indicates a weak or non-existent relationship between currency pairs or assets. For example, the EUR/USD and USD/CHF pairs may show little correlation, meaning their movements do not significantly influence each other. While neutral correlations may not offer direct trading opportunities, they can still provide valuable information about market dynamics and help traders avoid making decisions based on false assumptions of correlation.
The correlation coefficient formula may seem complex, but you can use a specialised online calculator. source: BYJU’S
How to identify correlations
If you’ve decided to count the correlation between two currency pairs, here’s a guide to help you get started:
1. Select currency pairs: Choose the currency pairs you want to analyse for correlation. For example, you might want to examine the correlation between EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
2. Collect historical data: Gather historical price data for the selected currency pairs. You can obtain this data from various sources such as trading platforms, financial websites, or specialised data providers.
3. Calculate correlation coefficient: Use online correlation calculators, Excel spreadsheets with built-in functions like CORREL, or trading platforms such as MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and MetaTrader 5 (MT5) to compute correlation coefficients between the currency pairs.
4. Interpret results: Analyse the correlation coefficient to understand the relationship between the currency pairs. A coefficient close to +1 indicates a strong positive correlation, while a coefficient close to -1 indicates a strong negative correlation. A coefficient close to 0 suggests a weak or no correlation.
5. Repeat for different timeframes: Consider calculating correlations over different timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) to identify any changes in correlation patterns over time. This can provide valuable insights into the stability of the correlation relationship.
By following these steps, you can effectively count and interpret the correlation between currency pairs, helping you make more informed trading decisions in the forex market.
Various factors influence the correlations between currency pairs in forex trading. Understanding these nuances is crucial for traders seeking to anticipate market movements and make informed trading decisions.
Economic indicators: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), growth rates, and inflation significantly shape currency correlations. Positive GDP figures in both the Eurozone and the US can strengthen the correlation between EUR/USD and USD/CHF pairs. Divergent inflation rates can weaken correlations as traders adjust their strategies based on economic forecasts.
Market sentiment: Reflecting traders’ attitudes towards currencies, market sentiment impacts correlations. During periods of increased risk appetite, currencies like the Australian dollar (AUD) and New Zealand dollar (NZD) tend to exhibit positive correlations. Safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar (USD) and Japanese yen (JPY) may strengthen during times of uncertainty, thereby weakening correlations with riskier currencies.
Geopolitical events: Events such as elections or trade negotiations can disrupt currency correlations. Major agreements may strengthen correlations between currencies, while heightened tensions can weaken them as traders seek refuge in safer assets. Increased geopolitical risks might diminish the correlation between USD/JPY and gold.
The relationship between currencies and commodities: The interplay between currencies and commodities also influences currency correlations. For example, the Canadian dollar (CAD) often correlates positively with oil prices due to Canada’s significant oil exports. Consequently, a rise in oil prices could strengthen the correlation between USD/CAD and oil. Conversely, if gold prices surge, the correlation between USD/JPY and gold may weaken, given the status of the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency.
USD/CAD and oil prices positive correlation source: Reuters
Using correlations in trading
Leveraging correlations in forex trading provides traders with a strategic advantage, offering insights into market dynamics and aiding in risk management. By incorporating correlations into trading strategies, traders refine their approach, optimise trade timing, and enhance overall performance in the forex market.
Strategy development: Design strategies to capitalise on currency correlations, identifying trends, and optimising trade timing.
Risk management: Utilise correlated pairs for hedging to mitigate losses and minimise risk exposure. Additionally, diversify risk across multiple currency pairs or asset classes to reduce volatility and enhance stability.
Portfolio diversification: Spread investments across various currency pairs or asset classes with low or negative correlations to minimise overall portfolio risk and enhance long-term stability.
Identifying opportunities: Utilise correlations to identify diversification opportunities by selecting currency pairs with low or negative correlations.
Asset class monitoring: Monitor correlations between different asset classes to optimise portfolio allocation and achieve risk-adjusted returns.
In conclusion, knowing how currency pairs interact is vital for smart decision-making and managing risks in forex trading. Using correlation analysis is strongly recommended as it helps traders choose the best times to trade, manage risks effectively, and get the most out of their investments.
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