Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
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On Wednesday, the Dow Jones experienced a slight decline, continuing its downward trend for the third consecutive day, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw modest gains. Market fluctuations were influenced by individual stock performances, such as Intel’s significant drop, and broader economic indicators pointing towards a resilient economy, which in turn affected investor sentiments regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. In currency markets, the US dollar faced pressure, with notable movements against the Euro, British pound, and Australian dollar amidst geopolitical tensions and commodity price rallies. Investors remain cautiously optimistic, balancing between the best first quarter since 2019 and the potential for a volatile period ahead as markets adjust to recent gains and anticipate the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
Stock market update
The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight decline on Wednesday, continuing its struggle to break free from the slump that has characterized the second quarter. The Dow fell by 43.10 points, a 0.11% drop, closing at 39,127.14, marking its third consecutive day of losses. In contrast, the S&P 500 managed a slight increase of 0.11%, closing at 5,211.49, its first gain of the week, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a 0.23% rise, ending the day at 16,277.46. The downturn for the Dow was primarily due to a significant over 8% drop in Intel shares following the announcement of operating losses in its semiconductor manufacturing sector. Despite a positive trend for most of the day, artificial intelligence leader Nvidia ended in the red, hampering the overall market gains. However, substantial increases in major technology stocks like Netflix, up by 2.6%, and Meta Platforms, with a 1.9% gain, provided some support to the market.
Interest rates have continued to place pressure on the stock market. The release of ADP data on Wednesday indicated a higher-than-expected increase in private payrolls for March, signaling a resilient economy but also heightening investor anxiety over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. Comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened hopes for early rate cuts, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggesting a potential rate decrease not occurring until the fourth quarter. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for more evidence of inflation easing before any reduction in borrowing costs. Market predictions now lean heavily towards unchanged rates at the Fed’s May policy meeting, with a diminishing likelihood of a cut by June, as reflected in the shifting odds according to the CME FedWatch Tool and Fed funds futures data.
Despite the challenging start to the quarter, some market analysts remain optimistic, viewing the recent downturn as a period of consolidation after a strong first quarter, the best since 2019 for the S&P 500.
Currency market update
The US dollar experienced additional downward pressure, challenging the 104.00 level as measured by the USD Index (DXY). Upcoming economic data includes February’s Balance of Trade results and weekly Initial Jobless Claims on April 4, alongside speeches from Fed members Barkin, Goolsbee, and Mester. The Euro gained momentum against the dollar, pushing towards the significant 200-day SMA at the 1.0830 region, with market participants looking forward to the final HCOB Services PMIs from Germany and the euro area, as well as the release of the ECB Accounts on the same day. Meanwhile, the British pound surged to new multi-day highs beyond the 1.2600 mark, aligning with the 100-day SMA, ahead of the final S&P Global Services PMI announcement for the UK.
The Japanese yen maintained a steady position against the dollar, staying below the 152.00 mark, with investors eyeing the upcoming release of weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures in Japan. The Australian dollar saw increased buying interest, surpassing the crucial 200-day SMA around 0.6545, with the final Judo Bank Services PMI report due on April 4. In the commodities market, ongoing geopolitical tensions drove West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to new 2024 highs, exceeding the $86.00 per barrel mark. Safe-haven demand, coupled with anticipations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in June, propelled gold prices to a record peak near the $2,300 per troy ounce, while silver prices continued their rally, reaching new highs just above the $27.00 level per ounce for the first time since June 2021.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD surges amid diverging central bank policies and mixed economic signals
The EUR/USD pair experienced a significant upswing, breaking past the 1.0800 mark and nearing the 200-day SMA, driven by a noticeable decline in the US Dollar amidst contrasting movements in US and German bond yields. Despite the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both indicating the onset of easing cycles potentially beginning in June, divergences in their approach could lead to varied strategies. This period saw mixed messages from Fed officials on interest rate adjustments, amidst indicators suggesting a softer economic landscape in the eurozone but expectations of a resilient US economy. These dynamics, coupled with inflation data below expectations in the euro area, hint at a complex interplay of economic factors influencing the EUR/USD trajectory, with a potential shift towards a stronger Dollar in the medium term as both central banks embark on easing measures, potentially driving the pair to revisit its recent lows.
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD moved higher, able to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving slightly below widen the upper band, suggesting a potential another upward movement to reach the resistance level. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position at 67, signaling a bullish outlook for this currency pair.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
The stock market’s continued downturn, driven by concerns over interest rates and persistent inflation, contrasts with a slight recovery in the currency market despite the dollar’s fluctuation. While the stock market’s early 2024 gains face challenges from economic indicators and Federal Reserve officials’ cautious outlooks, currency markets adjust to new data and geopolitical tensions, with notable movements in the Euro, Pound, and Australian Dollar. As investors navigate these turbulent waters, the focus turns to upcoming economic reports and Fed communications, which could further shape market trajectories in both stocks and currencies.
Stock market updates
The stock market experienced another day of declines, marking a continuation of its sluggish start to the quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1%, losing 396.61 points to close at 39,170.24, with a session low dipping over 500 points. Similarly, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.72% and 0.95%, respectively, with the Dow and S&P 500 seeing their worst day since March 5. This downturn reflects growing concerns over bond yields and a dampening of expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June, further exacerbated by rising oil prices and persistent inflation.
Despite the recent market setbacks, some experts view this as a normal market correction after significant gains in the first quarter. Greg Bassuk of AXS Investments highlighted the market’s reaction to continuous inflation concerns paired with profit-taking activities, while Sarat Sethi from Douglas C. Lane & Associates saw the sell-off as a “natural digestion” of the rapid equity gains. The first quarter saw the S&P 500 enjoying a 10% increase, its best start since 2019, buoyed by hopes of easing inflation and continued economic growth, alongside a strong performance in tech stocks driven by the AI sector. Yet, recent economic indicators and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest that immediate rate cuts are unlikely, casting doubts on the market’s ability to sustain its early 2024 momentum.
Currency markets updates
In the currency markets, the USD Index (DXY) faced downward pressure, dropping to 104.70 after recent peaks, indicating renewed selling interest. Upcoming economic indicators such as the ADP Employment Change, S&P Global Services PMI, and statements from Federal Reserve officials could further influence the dollar’s trajectory. Meanwhile, the Euro and the British Pound both recovered against the dollar, thanks to its recent weakness, with the Euro area’s inflation rate and unemployment data eagerly anticipated. The Australian Dollar also saw an uplift, moving past the 0.6500 mark, amidst a backdrop of rising WTI oil prices and gold reaching new highs, reflecting increased market volatility and safe-haven demand.
Pick of the day
EURUSD
EUR/USD moved slightly higher on Tuesday and reach our resistance level. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0768.
At the time of writing, the four-hour Stochastic indicator is moving higher targeting the overbought area, and the price is moving at the 20-period moving average. We expect that EUR/USD might move lower today and reach our support level at 1.0741.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
As the world’s economies continue to navigate the post-pandemic landscape, key indicators from the United States, Switzerland, and Canada offer insights into the ongoing recovery and challenges faced by various sectors. The upcoming weeks are set to deliver pivotal data on services sector performance, inflation rates, and employment changes that will shed light on the economic direction of these countries. Below, we delve into the specifics of each report and what analysts are anticipating.
U.S. ISM Services PMI Takes a Slight Dip
In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) saw a slight decline to 52.6 in February 2024, down from a four-month peak of 53.4 in January. This metric is crucial as it reflects the health of the services sector, which constitutes a significant portion of the U.S. economy. The anticipated PMI for March, set to be unveiled on 2 April 2024, is expected to hold steady at 52.6, signaling continued expansion in the services sector, albeit at a tempered pace.
Switzerland’s Inflation Rate on the Rise
Moving to Europe, Switzerland reported an uptick in its inflation rate to 0.6% in February 2024, a significant jump from the 0.2% recorded in the preceding month. This increase was primarily driven by higher costs for housing rentals and air transport. Analysts are closely watching the Swiss economy and forecast a further inflation rise of 0.3% for March 2024, with the official figures scheduled for release on 4 April 2024. This gradual increase in inflation could signal a strengthening consumer demand and economic activity in the country.
Canadian Employment Figures Show Growth
In Canada, the employment landscape showed positive momentum with the addition of 40.7K jobs in February 2024, an improvement over the 37.3K jobs added in January. However, the unemployment rate edged higher to 5.8% in February, up from 5.7% the month before. The focus now turns to the March 2024 employment report, expected on 5 April 2024. Analysts predict a more modest job growth of 25K, with unemployment anticipated to tick slightly higher to 5.9%. These figures suggest that while the job market remains robust, it faces headwinds that could moderate growth.
U.S. Job Market Shows Resilience Amidst Challenges
Lastly, the U.S. job market continued to demonstrate resilience with the economy adding 275K jobs in February 2024, surpassing the revised figure of 229K in January. Despite this strong job growth, the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022. Looking ahead to March 2024, analysts are forecasting the addition of 200K jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 3.9%. The upcoming jobs report, due on 5 April 2024, will be crucial in assessing whether the U.S. labor market can sustain its momentum amidst economic uncertainties.
As these economic indicators unfold, they will provide valuable insights into the health and trajectory of the global economy. Stakeholders, from policymakers to investors, will be watching closely to gauge the effectiveness of current economic policies and to strategize for the future amidst a landscape of ongoing challenges and opportunities.
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