An economist at BNP Paribas compares the oil and gas price jump linked to the war in Iran with the energy shock seen in 2022 after the war in Ukraine. The article asks whether similar drivers will lead to similar inflation and growth outcomes.

It says inflation pressure may be weaker than in 2022 because demand is less dynamic and supply is less constrained. It adds that this could limit how far higher energy prices feed through into broader prices.

The piece notes that transmission delays mean the effects may take time to appear and to fade. It says the situation should be monitored closely as the economy adjusts.

It also states that central banks learned from the 2021–2023 inflation period. It adds that they may react faster to reduce spillovers, second-round effects, and a spiral between price rises, inflation expectations, and wages.

The article says a set of indicators has been chosen to track effects on activity and prices in the Eurozone, the United States, oil and gas markets, and emerging countries. It aims to assess how closely current conditions match those in 2022.

It notes the article was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. The content is credited to the FXStreet Insights Team, which compiles market observations and analysis.

Given the recent surge in oil prices, we believe this energy shock will not be a repeat of the 2022 inflationary spiral. While Brent crude has jumped to nearly $115 per barrel in the past month due to the conflict in Iran, the underlying economic conditions are fundamentally different. Looking back to 2022, the post-pandemic demand boom provided fertile ground for inflation, which is not the case today.

Weaker global demand is a key reason for this view, which should limit how much energy costs pass through to core prices. For instance, China’s latest manufacturing PMI reading slipped to 49.8, indicating a slight contraction, while US retail sales were flat last month. This contrasts sharply with the robust demand environment we saw in early 2022.

This suggests that options pricing in a sustained oil price above $130, similar to the 2022 peak, may be overvalued. The latest US CPI data supports a more moderate inflation outlook, rising to 3.1% but not showing the explosive momentum seen when it surged past 7% in 2022. Traders might consider strategies that bet on a ceiling for energy prices, such as selling out-of-the-money call options on WTI or Brent futures.

Furthermore, we see that central banks are not behind the curve this time. The Federal Reserve and ECB have been clear they will react swiftly to any signs of inflation expectations becoming unanchored, a lesson learned from the 2021-2023 period. This implies that the front end of the yield curve will react quickly, making bets on prolonged central bank inaction very risky.

Therefore, traders should be cautious about simply replaying the 2022 strategy of going long on broad commodities and shorting bonds. The increased vigilance from central banks could cap long-term inflation expectations, potentially making inflation swaps at current levels look expensive. The key difference now is the proactive stance of policymakers, who are determined to prevent a wage-price spiral before it can even begin.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement on Friday that there is an opportunity for a historic deal with Lebanon, according to Reuters. He said he agreed to a temporary ten-day ceasefire with Lebanon.

Netanyahu said Israel’s key demand is that Hezbollah must be dismantled. He also said Israel has not agreed to Hezbollah’s demand for Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon back to the international border.

Israel Lebanon Ceasefire And Security Zone

He said Israel will remain in Lebanon with an extensive security zone up to the Syrian border. He added that President Trump told him he is determined to continue the blockade of the Hormuz Strait and dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

In markets, risk appetite stayed positive in the American session. The US Dollar Index traded near 97.80, in the lower half of its weekly range, and was down 0.4% on the day.

We recall the optimism back in 2025 when a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced. That ten-day pause ultimately failed to produce a lasting agreement, as the core demands were never met. Today, the situation remains tense, with cross-border skirmishes being a regular feature of market news.

The unresolved tensions with Iran, which were highlighted back in 2025, are directly impacting oil markets today. With Brent crude futures trading near $115 a barrel after another reported shipping disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, volatility in the energy sector is high. We believe long-dated call options on major oil producers offer a way to gain exposure to further supply shocks.

Market Volatility And Hedging Strategies

The risk-positive sentiment we saw in 2025 has evaporated. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently elevated, hovering around 28, a stark contrast to the low teens we saw for much of last year. This suggests traders should consider buying protective puts on broad market indices like the S&P 500 to hedge against a sudden escalation.

The failure to dismantle Hezbollah, a key Israeli demand in the 2025 talks, has led to sustained military budgets in the region. Defense sector ETFs, such as ITA, are up over 15% year-to-date, reflecting these ongoing security concerns. We see continued strength here, and selling out-of-the-money puts on these names could be a way to collect premium.

Unlike the weaker US dollar environment noted in 2025, today’s persistent geopolitical risks have renewed its safe-haven appeal. The Dollar Index has been grinding higher, recently breaking through the 107 level. We anticipate this trend will continue, making long positions on the dollar against commodity-linked currencies an attractive trade.

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WTI US oil fell on Friday to about $81.50, after dropping 9.12% on the day. It had briefly risen above $90, then slid to an intraday low of $80.30, its weakest level since 10 March.

The move followed news from the Middle East. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that after the ceasefire in Lebanon the Strait of Hormuz has been declared fully open to all commercial vessels for the rest of the truce period.

Strait Of Hormuz Reopens

Araghchi said shipping would resume using coordinated routes set by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation. US President Donald Trump said the strait is open for passage, while a naval blockade would still apply to Iran until a US-Iran transaction is completed.

The change reduced fears that the strait would stay closed after rising US-Iran tensions. The Strait of Hormuz is a major route for global oil shipments.

ING had estimated that about 13 million barrels per day of oil supply was disrupted by the blockade around the strait. With reopening now announced, trading shifted towards the ceasefire’s duration and whether the US and Iran can agree terms to keep the route open.

The dramatic unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium means that implied volatility in crude oil options is set to collapse in the coming days. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX), which had been trading near multi-year highs around 55, will likely fall sharply toward its year-to-date average. For us, this makes selling volatility through strategies like short strangles or iron condors an attractive proposition, capitalizing on the market’s shift away from extreme event risk.

With the immediate threat of a wider conflict removed, our focus must now shift back to market fundamentals, which were already tight. Remember that OPEC+ agreed back in December 2025 to hold production cuts through the second quarter, and recent demand figures from China for Q1 2026 came in stronger than anticipated. This suggests that while the fear-driven peak is gone, a solid floor for prices may establish itself in the high $70s.

Options Strategy After Volatility Drops

This new environment favors selling downside protection that was recently very expensive. We should look to sell out-of-the-money put options below the $80 strike price, collecting what is left of the elevated premium as the market digests the news. The extreme demand for upside call options seen over the past few weeks has evaporated, and those positions will now see their value decay rapidly.

We have seen this pattern before, such as after the drone attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities back in 2019. In that instance, a massive price spike was almost fully retraced within two weeks as supply fears were proven to be overblown. Today’s 9% drop is a similar reaction, suggesting the market will now seek equilibrium based on actual supply flows rather than potential disruptions.

Moving forward, the key data will be the weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory reports and real-time shipping data. After last Wednesday’s report on April 15, 2026, showed a surprise crude draw of 2.1 million barrels, we will now watch to see how quickly the resumption of traffic through Hormuz translates into inventory builds. Satellite tracking data from firms like Vortexa will be critical in confirming that the nearly 17 million barrels per day of average flow seen in late 2025 has truly resumed.

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UK 10-year gilt yields rose by 3.4bps after a Guardian report said Peter Mandelson failed security vetting for a former US ambassador role, and that the decision was overruled by the Foreign Office.

The report contrasted with Prime Minister Starmer’s statement to the House of Commons that “full due process was followed”. This fed concerns about a change in leadership and the possibility of looser fiscal rules, higher borrowing, more gilt issuance, and higher yields.

Gilts were already slightly underperforming before the report. UK GDP grew by 0.5% month on month in February, compared with a 0.2% expectation.

The article states it was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. It is attributed to the FXStreet Insights Team.

We remember how the political news surrounding Peter Mandelson in 2025 caused a sudden jump in 10-year gilt yields. This event provides a clear playbook for how the market reacts to perceived weakness in the Prime Minister’s authority. Any sign of political instability should be seen as a direct trigger for higher borrowing costs.

This political sensitivity is happening against a backdrop of stubborn inflation, which recent data for March showed is still at 3.2%, well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. This limits the central bank’s ability to support the bond market, leaving it exposed to shocks. The 10-year gilt yield is already elevated, hovering around 4.35% in response to these persistent price pressures.

Derivative traders should consider positioning for increased volatility and a potential spike in yields. We see value in buying put options on Long Gilt futures, providing a defined-risk way to profit from a fall in UK government bond prices. This strategy acts as an effective hedge against unexpected political flare-ups or a fiscally loose successor.

Just as we saw with the surprisingly strong GDP data in February 2025, the UK economy is showing signs of resilience again, with monthly growth coming in at 0.1%. This positive economic data further reduces the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. This combination of a firm economy and political risk creates a compelling case for yields to move higher.

Nordea now expects the ECB to deliver four consecutive 25 bp rate rises starting in June, even after ceasefire news in the Middle East. The forecast was updated just before the ceasefire announcement.

The ceasefire is described as a downside risk to this path, but the forecast is still presented as workable. The view does not depend on further escalation in the Middle East.

Core inflation is said to have been above target for more than four years. The labour market is described as tight and the economy as resilient, which keeps inflation concerns high.

Comments cited from ECB Governing Council members suggest there is time to assess conditions. The remarks also point to a June rise being likely, with an April move argued against.

The longer end of the yield curve is described as supported by this ECB view, a resilient growth forecast, and expectations of higher term premia. These factors are linked to a further rise in longer yields.

We are now preparing for the European Central Bank to start a series of four consecutive 25 basis point rate hikes, beginning this June. Core inflation has been the primary concern, having stayed well above the bank’s target for a sustained period. The economy’s surprising resilience gives the ECB the justification it needs to act decisively.

The latest data from Eurostat gives this view credibility, with March 2026 core inflation holding stubbornly at 2.7%, significantly above the 2% goal. Furthermore, the eurozone unemployment rate recently dipped to 6.4%, a multi-year low that signals a tight labor market likely to fuel wage growth. These figures make it difficult for the ECB to justify delaying its hiking cycle any further.

Recent ceasefire news in the Middle East has certainly eased some immediate concerns, but our focus remains on those underlying price pressures. These domestic inflation drivers, like service sector price increases, were building long before recent geopolitical tensions. Therefore, we believe the ECB’s hiking path is not dependent on external conflicts and remains viable.

For the short end of the curve, this means positioning for higher rates through instruments like Euribor futures. We are looking at selling futures contracts for the second half of 2026 and early 2027 to reflect the expected hikes. Interest rate swaps that involve paying a fixed rate are also an effective way to position for this anticipated move.

Longer-term yields are also expected to climb as the market prices in a more hawkish central bank and a resilient economy. This suggests traders should consider bearish strategies on long-dated government bond futures, like the German Bund. Positions such as buying puts on Bund futures will become more attractive as we expect longer-term bond prices to fall.

We only need to look back to late 2025 to see how the market was caught off guard by the persistence of inflation. Many traders who bet on early rate cuts faced significant losses when the economic data refused to cool down. That historical precedent supports the view that underestimating the ECB’s resolve in the current environment would be a mistake.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Friday that after the ceasefire in Lebanon, all commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be fully open for the rest of the ceasefire period. He said vessels would use a coordinated route set out by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation.

US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz was open for “full passage”. He said a naval blockade would still apply to Iran until a US-Iran transaction was “100% complete”, and said the process should move quickly because most points are already negotiated.

Following the reports, US stock index futures were up between 0.8% and 1.2% at the time of publication. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was below 97.70, its lowest level since late February, and was down more than 0.5% on the day.

The opening of the Strait of Hormuz, even with a specific blockade on Iran, should lower the geopolitical risk premium baked into oil prices. This key waterway sees about a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply pass through it, and recent tensions had kept WTI crude futures trading above $95 a barrel through March of 2026. We should consider strategies that benefit from falling oil prices, such as buying put options on crude futures expiring in the next two to three months.

This news is also a clear signal to expect a decline in broad market volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) will likely fall from its current levels in the low 20s, much like we saw during the temporary de-escalation in the spring of 2025 when it dropped nearly 30% in two weeks. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads on the VIX or VIX-related ETFs offers a way to capitalize on this expected return to calm.

Lower energy costs directly combat the inflation concerns that have been weighing on the market this year. With the latest March 2026 Consumer Price Index report showing inflation still stubbornly high at 3.1%, this development could give the Federal Reserve more justification to proceed with a potential rate cut this summer. This improves the outlook for equities, making bullish call options on the S&P 500 index attractive.

The US Dollar’s decline is a direct result of this risk-on sentiment, as capital flows from the safety of the dollar to higher-growth assets. We have seen the DXY drop below 97.70 for the first time since February 2026, a significant technical breakdown. This trend supports taking bearish positions on the dollar through options on currency ETFs.

However, the situation remains fragile, as the blockade on Iran is still in full effect pending completion of a “transaction.” Any negative headlines from these negotiations could cause a rapid reversal in sentiment, snapping oil prices and volatility higher. We must therefore keep our position sizes moderate and use defined-risk option strategies to protect against a sudden shift.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, gave a statement at the fifty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee of the IMF on Friday. She said uncertainty about the outlook for euro area inflation has increased after the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

She said risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, especially in the near term. She added that inflation could be higher than the baseline if inflation expectations and wage growth rise more than expected.

She said the ECB is closely monitoring the situation.

The uncertainty around Euro area inflation has grown significantly due to conflict in the Middle East. Risks are now tilted towards higher-than-expected inflation, particularly in the coming months. We should prepare for inflation to overshoot the baseline if wage growth and public expectations react more strongly than anticipated.

This situation is complicated by the recent surge in energy prices, with Brent crude futures climbing over 15% in the last month to trade near $105 a barrel. This is a direct inflationary pressure that mirrors the dynamic we saw during the energy crisis of 2022. The latest Eurostat data showing headline HICP inflation ticking up to 2.6% in March supports this cautious view.

We are also closely monitoring second-round effects, as the conditions for sustained price pressures are in place. Negotiated wage growth in the first quarter of 2026 remained elevated at 4.5%, and core inflation has been stubbornly sticky, holding at 2.9%. These figures suggest underlying inflation is not cooling as quickly as hoped.

For interest rate traders, this means bets on aggressive rate cuts should be pared back. The market has already repriced, now forecasting only 25 basis points of cuts this year, down from 75 basis points a month ago. Positioning through paying fixed on short-dated euro interest rate swaps or shorting German Bund futures could hedge against rates remaining higher for longer.

Given the significant increase in uncertainty, buying volatility is a direct and logical response. The VSTOXX, which measures volatility on the EURO STOXX 50 index, has already climbed to its highest level since the market instability of late 2025. We believe there is still value in owning options that would profit from further market swings.

The path for the euro is now less clear, caught between the support of higher rate expectations and the drag from potential stagflation. A clear directional bet is therefore risky. A better strategy may be to trade currency volatility itself, using options to position for a large move in EUR/USD without betting on the specific direction.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) changed its 2026 outlook last autumn, shifting from a forecast surplus to a forecast deficit. This change supports expectations of a tighter copper market.

The ICSG’s first outlook for 2027 is expected to point to further tightening, with the possibility of a persistent shortage. The copper price has already recovered from a setback in March.

Refined copper output in China is still expected to rise. Even with higher Chinese production, the market outlook remains focused on supply constraints into 2027.

The market outlook for copper is tightening, and we see a clear deficit forming for the rest of 2026. This view is supported by the International Copper Study Group, which is also expected to forecast further shortages into 2027. This fundamental backdrop suggests the price recovery we saw after the March pullback has strong support.

To add credibility to this view, we can see that LME copper inventories have recently fallen to a critical 18-month low of around 85,000 tonnes. At the same time, the Global Manufacturing PMI has remained in expansionary territory above 50 for the third consecutive month. This combination of shrinking supply and rising industrial demand points to continued price strength.

For traders, this outlook suggests positioning for upward price movement in the coming weeks. We believe it is a good time to consider buying call options or establishing bull call spreads with expiries in the third quarter. This allows for participation in the expected medium-term rally while managing risk.

Looking back, the price action we observed through late 2025 showed a similar pattern of consolidation followed by a sharp uptrend. The recent rebound from the dip in March 2026 confirms that buying interest remains strong. History suggests that when supply forecasts tighten this significantly, the subsequent price move can be swift.

Demand from the green energy and technology sectors continues to exceed earlier projections. Global EV sales data for the first quarter of 2026 showed a 15% year-over-year increase, and the build-out of new AI data centers is adding an unexpected layer of copper consumption. These are not short-term trends but structural shifts in demand.

On the supply side, disruptions are proving difficult to resolve, further squeezing the market. Ongoing labor negotiations in Peru and lower-than-expected ore grades from key mines in Chile have constrained raw material availability. Even with Chinese refined copper output rising, it appears insufficient to cover the global shortfall.

GBP/JPY edged lower on Friday in calm trade, with the Yen slightly firmer as expectations of a possible US–Iran peace agreement weighed on Oil. The pair traded around 215.05 after an intraday high of 215.69.

Earlier in the week, GBP/JPY reached 215.91, its highest since July 2008, as higher Oil prices increased pressure on Japan’s import costs. The cross was still set for a second weekly rise.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for all commercial vessels during the ceasefire, in line with the truce in Lebanon. WTI fell to its lowest level since March 11 and traded near $81.50, down nearly 9% on the day.

On the daily chart, GBP/JPY stayed above the 20-day SMA at 212.92 and traded below the upper Bollinger band at 216.39. The 14-day RSI was 63.83 and the MACD histogram was about 0.33.

Resistance sat near 216.39, while support levels were 212.92 and 209.45. The technical analysis was produced with help from an AI tool.

We remember the market action well around this time in 2025, when the GBP/JPY pair quickly fell from multi-year highs. The trigger was a sudden drop in oil prices after Iran signaled the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This immediately strengthened the Japanese Yen because of Japan’s heavy reliance on energy imports.

Today, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil hovering around $85.75 per barrel, the link between geopolitics and the Yen remains critical. Recent data shows Japan still imports over 99% of its crude oil, with nearly 95% of that coming from the Middle East. This fundamental vulnerability means any disruption or resolution in the region will directly impact currency markets.

For derivative traders, this creates an opportunity to position for similar sudden moves. Even without a direct threat, diplomatic chatter alone can cause oil prices to swing, making the Yen volatile. Given that the GBP/JPY has recently traded in a tight range, the market may be underpricing the risk of a sharp move.

One strategy is to consider buying options to prepare for a breakout in volatility. For instance, purchasing puts on GBP/JPY could provide a defined-risk way to profit if positive geopolitical news causes oil to fall and the Yen to strengthen. This reflects the pattern we observed in 2025 when the cross pulled back sharply.

Looking back at the technicals from 2025, the pair found solid support near its 20-day moving average, even during the sell-off. This suggests that traders who believe the long-term uptrend is intact could consider selling put options below current key support levels. This strategy collects premium while banking on history repeating itself, where dips are seen as buying opportunities.

It is crucial to monitor implied volatility, which has risen to 10.8% for one-month options on the pair. This indicates that the market is beginning to anticipate larger price swings in the coming weeks. Traders should watch this metric closely, as a further increase could signal an imminent move.

Global markets are consolidating as attention stays on whether the US-Iran ceasefire will hold. Brent crude is below $100 a barrel, while stock and bond markets have paused after recent gains.

The MSCI world stock index reached a record high. Long-term sovereign bond yields are modestly lower across major economies, and the US dollar has been trading on the defensive after recovering the prior day’s losses.

BBH expects the dollar to be driven mainly by rate differentials in the coming months. It forecasts DXY will stay within its established 96.00–100.00 range over the next few months.

The bank says the energy shock may not be over, but expects the worst to be past, with end-March seen as the low point for risk sentiment. It also maintains a structurally bearish view on the dollar, citing concerns about US trade and security policy confidence, US fiscal credibility, and the politicisation of the Federal Reserve.

We recall how markets in 2025 consolidated around the US-Iran ceasefire, which helped keep risk sentiment stable and Brent crude oil prices under $100 a barrel for a time. That period of relative calm, however, has given way to new uncertainty. With recent satellite imagery showing renewed activity at Iranian nuclear sites, Brent crude has crept back up to $104 this month, reminding us that the energy shock may not be entirely behind us.

The view last year that the Dollar Index (DXY) would remain confined to a 96.00-100.00 range proved profitable for much of 2025 for those selling volatility. However, that range broke decisively to the downside as we entered 2026, with the DXY recently hitting a low of 94.75. This breakdown suggests the market is no longer solely trading on simple rate differentials.

Given that the old range has failed, implied volatility on dollar options is ticking up from last year’s lows, making strategies like selling strangles less attractive. We believe traders should now consider buying put spreads on dollar-pegged currency pairs. This allows for positioning for further dollar weakness while defining risk in what could become a more volatile environment.

The long-held bearish dollar arguments we noted in 2025 are now becoming the market’s primary focus. Concerns over US fiscal credibility, in particular, have grown as the Congressional Budget Office’s latest report puts the US debt-to-GDP ratio at 110%, a figure not seen since World War II. This fundamental pressure is likely to weigh on the dollar for the foreseeable future.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot in the first quarter of 2026 has significantly altered the landscape from last year. While the European Central Bank has held rates steady, the Fed’s recent rhetoric has collapsed the dollar’s yield advantage. This shift is a key reason why the dollar has stopped responding positively to US data surprises.