TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects US retail sales for March to rise 1.7% month on month, compared with a 1.4% consensus forecast. It links the increase mainly to higher petrol prices and notes a likely sideways move in auto sales.

The team expects the retail sales control group to rise 0.6% month on month, versus a 0.2% consensus forecast. It adds that core goods inflation may also support the headline figure.

Retail Sales Services And Event Risks

Food services sales, the only services category in the report, are estimated to increase 0.7%. The release is due in the morning and is being watched alongside other event risks.

Markets are also focused on Kevin Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee hearing for his nomination as Fed Chair. His prepared remarks defend Fed independence and take a hawkish tone on inflation, with rates and balance sheet policy under review.

Middle East developments are also being monitored, including negotiations starting in Pakistan. On Monday, rates bear flattened after the Strait was closed again over the weekend, while equities were only modestly lower.

Looking back at the situation in March 2025, we saw how unexpectedly strong retail sales, fueled by high gas prices, signaled persistent inflation and a hot economy. This pattern is reminiscent of March 2022, when retail sales were boosted by an 8.9% monthly surge in gasoline station receipts alone. Given this, we should consider using options on retail ETFs, like the XRT, to hedge against similar inflation-driven surprises in the economic data for the coming months.

Hedging Rate And Geopolitical Surprise Risk

The market’s focus on a hawkish Fed nominee and the resulting bear flattening of the yield curve in 2025 was a textbook signal of impending rate hikes. As of April 2026, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates markets are pricing in a period of rate stability, which could make the market vulnerable to hawkish surprises. We should therefore watch for opportunities in interest rate futures, such as SOFR contracts, to position for potential shifts in Fed policy communicated in upcoming speeches.

The sudden closure of the Strait over a weekend last year underscores how geopolitical events create immediate volatility, a lesson reinforced by the Red Sea shipping disruptions that began in late 2023. These events cause spikes in energy costs, which directly impacts inflation and corporate earnings. Therefore, holding call options on crude oil futures or major energy sector ETFs provides a direct hedge against these unpredictable supply shocks in the coming weeks.

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Oil prices are steady slightly above $90 per barrel, based on TD Securities’ base case. Brent has traded between $90 and $100 per barrel since the ceasefire began.

Trading has suggested acceptance of prices around current levels, with limited movement above that area. The note links this to ongoing tensions.

Middle East Risk And Market Focus

Uncertainty around Middle East developments remains in focus. Attention is also on whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open, closes, or shows mixed conditions.

The report says markets are moving towards a view that energy prices will settle near current levels. The article was produced using an AI tool and checked by an editor.

We are seeing Brent oil prices holding steady in a $90 to $100 per barrel range, and our base case is that this will continue for now. This stability follows the ceasefire that began in late February 2026, which has calmed the market’s immediate fears. Traders seem comfortable with these prices, balancing the risk of Middle East tensions with solid global demand.

For the next few weeks, this suggests that selling volatility could be a primary strategy for us. We should look at option structures like iron condors on June and July contracts, with short strikes placed just outside this expected $90-100 channel. This approach is designed to profit from the price remaining range-bound and time decay.

Volatility Strategy And Range Expectations

This view is supported by the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX), which has settled around 38 after spiking above 55 earlier in the year. Additionally, recent statements from the OPEC+ monitoring committee confirmed they will hold production quotas steady through the second quarter. These factors provide a fundamental floor and ceiling that reinforces the current trading range.

The key uncertainty is the Strait of Hormuz, which is keeping a floor under implied volatility. However, maritime tracking data for April shows tanker transits are down only about 5% from the Q4 2025 average, indicating the disruption risk is a premium rather than a physical reality at this moment. This makes selling that premium attractive, but it demands close attention.

Looking back at the sharp volatility we experienced through much of 2025, the current calm feels fragile. That period taught us how quickly geopolitical headlines can invalidate a range. Therefore, while we favor selling premium, we must maintain disciplined stops and consider holding some cheap, far out-of-the-money options to hedge against a sudden breakout.

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The Indian rupee fell further against the US dollar on Tuesday, pushing USD/INR towards 93.50. Selling followed the Reserve Bank of India withdrawing limits on state-run banks’ non-deliverable forwards and curbs on rebooking foreign exchange derivative contracts.

Market risk mood improved after reports said Iran agreed to resume talks with the US on a permanent ceasefire. The Wall Street Journal reported Iran would send a team to Islamabad on Tuesday, though Tehran has not confirmed this.

Rupee Weakness And Policy Shift

The US has said Vice President JD Vance is travelling to Islamabad to lead talks, expected on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. On Monday, sentiment had turned risk-averse after Iran said there was “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now”.

Foreign Institutional Investors were net sellers of Indian shares on Monday, selling Rs. 1,059.53 crore. In the prior three sessions, they bought Rs. 1,731.71 crore in total, averaging Rs. 577.24 crore per day.

Traders are watching Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing and US Retail Sales data for March at 12:30 GMT. Retail Sales are forecast to rise 1.4% month-on-month versus 0.6% in February.

USD/INR is back above the 20-day EMA at 93.08, with RSI (14) in the 40.00–60.00 range. Levels noted include 94.00 on the upside and 92.46 on the downside.

Market Focus And Trade Setup

The Indian Rupee is facing renewed pressure, pushing the USD/INR pair toward the 93.50 mark. This weakness is primarily driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s decision last year in 2025 to remove trading curbs on banks, which has taken away a key layer of support for the currency. We should anticipate that this policy shift will continue to allow for greater downward moves in the Rupee.

Adding to the complexity is the renewed possibility of US-Iran peace talks, which creates significant market volatility. While a permanent ceasefire would typically be a “risk-on” event that strengthens emerging market currencies, the recent on-again, off-again nature of the talks suggests caution. The last time a ceasefire was announced in late 2025, we saw Brent crude prices drop nearly 4% in two days, showing how sensitive markets are to this geopolitical situation.

The bearish sentiment towards Indian assets is reinforced by persistent outflows from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Last year, we saw FIIs pull a net of over $3.5 billion from Indian equities in the final quarter of 2025, and this trend of selling appears to be continuing. This consistent selling pressure from foreign funds directly contributes to the Rupee’s weakness against the Dollar.

From the US side, we are watching for signs of continued economic strength, which would further bolster the Dollar. Strong US retail sales data, like the 1.4% growth expected, would reinforce the case for a hawkish Federal Reserve, especially with a new chair nominee like Kevin Warsh. Looking back at 2025, the Dollar Index (DXY) climbed from 102 to over 106 in the second half of the year on the back of resilient US economic data.

Given these factors, the path of least resistance for USD/INR appears to be upward, with the 94.00 level being a realistic target. Traders should consider strategies that profit from both a rising exchange rate and increased volatility. Buying call options on the USD/INR pair could be an effective way to capitalize on a potential breakout above 93.50 while limiting downside risk.

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EUR/JPY traded near 187.20 during Asian hours on Monday, after modest gains the previous day. The pair was steady as the Euro moved little after German ZEW survey data.

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to -17.2 in April, below the -5 forecast and down from -0.5 in March. The Current Situation index dropped to -73.7, missing -70.0 and falling from -62.9.

The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment index declined to -20.4, compared with expectations of -3.6. The data added to weak sentiment readings across the region.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said private credit is a source of risk to financial stability, alongside elevated market valuations and loose fiscal policy in some countries, Reuters reported. The comments were made during European trading on Tuesday.

The Japanese Yen remained under pressure amid uncertainty about the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. The BoJ is expected to raise inflation forecasts and cut growth projections due to higher energy costs and headwinds linked to the Iran conflict.

Nikkei reported the BoJ may keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75% on 28 April. Other reports said the BoJ is assessing the Middle East conflict and may point to renewed policy normalisation as early as June.

We are seeing EUR/JPY hold around 187.20 despite a sharp downturn in German economic sentiment. The ZEW survey’s plunge to -17.2 signals significant headwinds for the Eurozone’s largest economy. This weakness in the Euro is being counteracted by pressure on the Japanese Yen.

Recent Destatis flash estimates showing German CPI for April dipping to 1.9% year-over-year further solidify the case for a cautious European Central Bank. This data suggests the ECB will be in no rush to tighten policy, potentially capping the Euro’s strength in the medium term. The central bank’s own warnings about private credit risk reinforce this hesitant outlook.

The main driver for this currency pair, however, remains the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. With the BoJ expected to hold its rate at 0.75% during its meeting on April 28, the Yen’s yield disadvantage continues to be the dominant theme. Market pricing, reflected in overnight index swaps, now suggests only a 15% probability of a BoJ rate hike before July, reinforcing the dovish sentiment.

This dynamic feels familiar, as we remember the sharp JPY depreciation trends back in 2023 and 2024. During that period, the BoJ’s ultra-loose policy consistently outweighed weakness in its counter-currencies, leading to prolonged trends. The current uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising energy costs gives the BoJ more reason to delay any significant policy normalization.

Given this backdrop, traders anticipating continued JPY weakness could consider buying EUR/JPY call options with strike prices above 188.00 to capitalize on a potential move higher. Alternatively, with the upcoming BoJ meeting, implied volatility for one-month options has ticked up to 9.5%. A long straddle strategy could be used to profit from a significant price move in either direction, should the BoJ deliver a major surprise.

AUD/USD traded 0.35% lower near 0.7150 in the European session on Tuesday, after a sharp rise on Monday. The US Dollar strengthened ahead of the 14:00 GMT confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair.

The US Dollar Index was up 0.25% near 98.25 at the time of reporting. Warsh previously favoured a strong US Dollar and opposed Quantitative Easing in the Fed balance sheet.

Demand for the US Dollar also increased as Iran has not issued official confirmation of returning to peace talks with the US. Washington said Vice President JD Vance will travel to Pakistan to attend ceasefire talks with Tehran.

On the chart, AUD/USD stayed above the 20-day EMA at 0.7072 and remained in an uptrend from the 0.69 area. An uptrend line from the 0.6585 base, with a reference level near 0.6922, continued to support the move.

The 14-day RSI held above 60.00. Support levels were cited at 0.7072 and 0.6922, while resistance levels were 0.7222 and 0.7300.

We remember when the market anticipated a hawkish Federal Reserve, which briefly pushed the US Dollar Index toward 98.25. Today, on April 21, 2026, the situation is quite different as the Fed is now signaling a prolonged pause on interest rates. With recent data showing US core inflation has eased to 2.8%, futures markets are pricing in a 40% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is in a similar holding pattern, keeping its cash rate at 4.10% amid concerns over weakening global demand. Iron ore, a key Australian export, has recently fallen below $100 per tonne for the first time in over a year, putting sustained pressure on the Aussie dollar. This contrasts with the commodity optimism we saw in previous years.

This has left the AUD/USD pair trading in a tight range around 0.6650, far from the 0.7150 levels discussed in the past. The old support around 0.6922 has now become a major resistance level that has capped all rallies since late 2025. We believe this environment of central bank uncertainty will keep implied volatility elevated.

For derivative traders, this suggests that selling options to collect premium is a viable strategy for the coming weeks. We are considering short strangle strategies, which profit if the AUD/USD pair remains between two set prices. This approach takes advantage of time decay while both central banks remain on the sidelines.

However, we must remember the dollar’s strength in the 2022-2023 period, which fundamentally altered these exchange rates. A significant surprise in the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data could easily trigger a breakout from the current range. This remains the primary risk to any range-bound derivatives strategy.

Dow Jones futures rose 0.14% to above 49,700 during European trading on Tuesday. S&P 500 futures gained 0.13% to near 7,160, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.27% to about 26,820 ahead of the US open.

Moves in futures came as reports said Iran will send a delegation to Islamabad for a second round of talks with the US before the truce expires. Donald Trump said Vice President JD Vance will travel to Pakistan to resume negotiations, either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

On Monday, Wall Street ended lower in regular trading. The Dow Jones slipped 0.01%, the S&P 500 fell 0.24%, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.26%, after tensions escalated again over the weekend.

Large technology shares led declines, with Broadcom and Meta down more than 2%. Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet dropped over 1%.

Trump said he is unlikely to extend the truce with Tehran if no deal is reached before it expires this week. He added the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until an agreement is finalised.

These developments pushed oil prices higher and raised inflation risk. That reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

We are seeing a slight relief rally in futures based on the hope of a deal between the US and Iran. However, the market remains on a knife’s edge, with the truce set to expire this week. This environment suggests that implied volatility is underpriced, making it a key area to watch.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently trading near 18, up from lows around 14 just last month, but this may not fully price in the risk of negotiations failing. Buying call options on the VIX or VIX-related ETFs could provide an inexpensive hedge against a sharp market downturn if the talks collapse. This strategy would profit from a spike in fear.

With the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly 20% of the world’s daily oil consumption, at risk, any escalation will directly impact energy prices. We are already seeing West Texas Intermediate crude holding above $95 a barrel, a level not seen since the supply chain scares of late 2025. Bullish call spreads on energy ETFs like XLE or USO could offer a way to profit from further price shocks.

The recent surge in oil prices has significantly dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which was a major tailwind for stocks earlier this year. The probability of a June rate cut has fallen from over 75% to below 40% in the last few weeks, according to CME Group data. This shift makes it prudent to consider protective put options on rate-sensitive growth sectors, particularly the Nasdaq 100 via the QQQ ETF.

For those of us holding long positions in the broader market, the current calm in futures presents a window to add downside protection. Buying S&P 500 (SPY) or Dow Jones (DIA) put options that expire in the next several weeks can act as insurance. The goal is not to bet against the market, but to mitigate potential losses from a negative geopolitical surprise.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Tuesday that the ECB views private credit as a risk to financial stability. He also listed high market valuations and loose fiscal policy in some countries as sources of risk, according to Reuters.

The comments did not move the euro, as they gave no clear guidance on the monetary policy outlook. At the time of reporting, EUR/USD was 0.2% lower, trading near 1.1760, with the US dollar firm.

We are seeing a disconnect where European officials flag risks in private credit and high market valuations, yet the market’s immediate response is quiet. This suggests complacency, which often precedes a rise in volatility. For us, this is a signal to look for undervalued protection against potential market shocks.

The VSTOXX volatility index is currently trading near 13.8, a multi-year low, making options relatively cheap. Meanwhile, the EURO STOXX 50 index is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of over 15, which is well above its ten-year average and signals stretched valuations. This combination of low implied volatility and high valuations presents a compelling case for buying downside protection.

We remember similar central bank warnings back in 2021 regarding inflation risks, which the market largely dismissed before the aggressive rate hikes of 2022 forced a major repricing. Looking back from our perspective in 2025, that period serves as a clear lesson on heeding such official notices. These historical patterns show that official warnings can be leading indicators of risks the market is currently choosing to ignore.

Therefore, in the coming weeks, we should consider gradually building positions in long-dated put options on major European indices. Using put spreads can help manage the cost of this insurance while the market remains calm. We should also monitor European corporate credit spreads, like the iTraxx Europe Crossover index, as any significant widening there would be the first sign that these flagged risks are materializing.

China’s silver imports reached a record in March, supported by demand from retail buyers and the solar sector. Imports rose to around 836 tonnes, based on Chinese customs data.

This level was far above the 10-year March average of roughly 306 tonnes. Earlier in the year, strong domestic demand lifted Chinese silver prices to a premium over international markets and led to arbitrage flows.

Silver prices later pulled back from their January record highs. Retail buying demand also eased.

The article was produced with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.

We remember this time last year when China’s record silver imports in March 2025 created a significant market move. Now in April 2026, we are closely watching for signs of a repeat pattern driven by both industrial and retail demand. The key is to see if the market is setting up for another arbitrage opportunity.

The solar sector remains a primary driver for industrial demand, as China’s National Energy Administration is targeting over 230 GW of new solar installations this year. This provides a strong underlying support for silver, a critical component in photovoltaic cells. This sustained industrial consumption is a fundamental factor that was also present during the 2025 price action.

Traders should carefully monitor the premium between silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and those in London, which is currently sitting around 4-5%. While not yet at the double-digit levels seen at the peak in early 2025, this gap signals that regional demand is again outpacing international supply. This premium is the critical trigger for the arbitrage flows that can quickly move global prices.

Given the potential for a sharp upward move, buying near-term call options presents a strategy with defined risk. We saw last year how quickly retail momentum can fade after a price spike, causing a pullback. Therefore, options allow for participation in the potential upside while limiting exposure if the market reverses unexpectedly.

We also recall that implied volatility for silver options spiked by over 30% during the first quarter of 2025 as prices surged. For those expecting another significant price swing but are unsure of the direction, volatility-based plays could be effective. Strategies like long straddles might be appropriate to capture a large move in the coming weeks.

USD/CHF trades about 0.25% higher near 0.7800 in Tuesday’s European session. The move comes as the US Dollar rises before Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing as the next Federal Reserve chair at 14:00 GMT.

The US Dollar Index is up 0.25% at about 98.30. Markets are watching Warsh’s testimony for guidance on the Fed’s policy direction.

US Retail Sales for March are due at 12:30 GMT. The release is forecast at 1.4% month-on-month, up from 0.6% in February.

A Wall Street Journal report says Iran has agreed to another round of peace talks with the US. There has been no official confirmation.

Despite the rise, the near-term technical tone remains bearish below the 20-day EMA at 0.7866 and the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 0.7826. The 14-period RSI is near 41.

Support levels are 0.7775, then 0.7701 and 0.7608. Resistance levels are 0.7826, 0.7866, 0.7878, then 0.7941 and 0.8044.

We see the USD/CHF trading with a firm tone around 0.9150, a significant shift from the levels we were accustomed to through much of 2025. The US Dollar’s strength is broad, with the Dollar Index (DXY) currently holding steady above 106.00. This strength is creating a clear upward bias for the currency pair in the near term.

The Federal Reserve’s commentary is the primary driver behind this dollar rally. Any hopes for near-term rate cuts that we held at the end of last year have diminished, as recent inflation numbers have proven sticky. Fed officials are now emphasizing a “higher-for-longer” interest rate policy, which continues to attract capital toward the dollar.

This hawkish stance is supported by recent economic figures that point to a resilient US economy. For example, the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report for March 2026 showed the addition of 295,000 jobs, comfortably beating expectations and signaling a tight labor market. This robust data makes it difficult for the Fed to justify easing monetary policy anytime soon.

Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly surrounding ongoing trade negotiations with China and tensions in the Middle East, is also playing a role. Unlike the periods of relative calm we saw in 2025, the current environment is prompting a flight to safety. This market sentiment generally benefits the US Dollar as a primary safe-haven currency.

For derivative traders, this suggests a strategy of positioning for continued, but perhaps volatile, upward movement. With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) now approaching overbought territory near 70, buying call options with strikes around 0.9250 could capture further upside while limiting risk. Alternatively, selling out-of-the-money put options can generate income by taking the view that significant downside is unlikely in the coming weeks.

Key levels to watch are the immediate resistance at the 0.9200 mark, a level that has capped gains previously. A sustained break above this could open the path toward the 0.9280 highs we saw earlier in the year. On the downside, solid support appears to be forming near the 20-day moving average at 0.9060.

Safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc (CHF) has been limited by perceived risk of Swiss National Bank (SNB) action to curb currency strength. This has reduced the CHF’s usual support during periods of market stress.

The SNB has shifted towards more active intervention against franc appreciation since the outbreak of the US–Iran conflict. The approach has been described as reactive, aiming to cap CHF gains linked to safe-haven inflows rather than to push the currency lower.

EUR/CHF has moved below 0.92, which is being linked to lower expectations of SNB intervention as acute geopolitical risks ease. The move suggests markets may be adjusting how much SNB resistance they expect when the franc strengthens.

Despite this, it remains unclear whether the SNB will allow sustained CHF strength to help reduce imported inflation. The report indicates it is too early to assume the SNB will accept a stronger franc for that purpose.

The Swiss Franc’s role as a safe haven is currently being held in check by the market’s fear of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). We saw this during the Middle East diplomatic tensions in 2025, where the SNB likely intervened to cap the franc’s strength. This history makes traders cautious about betting on a strong and sustained rally in the currency.

With the EUR/CHF pair grinding below the 0.92 level, some are speculating that the SNB is becoming more tolerant as immediate geopolitical risks fade. However, Swiss inflation data from March 2026 came in at a manageable 1.4%, giving the central bank little incentive to desire a stronger currency to fight import prices. This suggests their primary goal remains stability, not active strengthening.

For derivative traders, this points towards selling call options on the Swiss Franc against the Euro or the Dollar. This strategy profits if the franc fails to appreciate significantly, which seems likely given the SNB’s perceived presence. The goal is to collect premium from the market’s expectation of capped upside.

Looking back, the SNB aggressively sold foreign currency during the high inflation period of 2022-2023 to deliberately strengthen the franc. The current situation is different, as the latest data on SNB foreign currency reserves shows they have been relatively stable through the first quarter of 2026. This signals a more reactive stance, focused on preventing excessive volatility rather than guiding the currency in a specific direction.

This creates a probable trading range for the franc, making volatility-selling strategies attractive. Traders could consider selling strangles on EUR/CHF, which involves selling both a call and a put option with different strike prices. This position is profitable as long as the currency pair does not make a large move in either direction in the coming weeks.