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US equities churned lower on Thursday, led by the tech sector as markets continued to monitor the war and negotiation in Ukraine. In the meantime, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned rates are headed higher despite of the uncertainty in Ukraine. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with 0.29% lower, and the S&P 500 declined 0.53% on Thursday. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.56% at the end of the day.
Western countries continues to impose more sanctions against Russia along with widespread measures against its president and officials. With all of the current sanctions, the Wall Street expects Russia’s GDP is going to contract by 35% in the second quarter of 2022, which is a drastic slowdown comparable to the financial crisis back in 1998.
Russia’s Ukraine invasion could potentially have set in motion an energy market disruption since the major oil crisis in the 1970s. The disruption is approaching as the energy market in already tightly supplied; sanctions by the US and its allies on Russia’s financial system virtually disrupt sales of crude oil. With those, oil price might heads toward another peaks.
Main Pairs Movement:
EURUSD rebounded a bit, but still hitting fresh 22- month lows on Thursday, closing with 1.10659. The euro dollar remained pressured against the US dollar after the release of NFP report. US dollar continued embracing buyers with all the expectations that the Fed’s interest rate hikes. At the same time, as the war in Ukraine continues, markets tend to favor the traditional safe- heaven currency, the US dollar.
AUDUSD witnessed a rally in the first week of March, extending its gain to 0.73336 amid a strong performance by its trade balance.
USDJPY did not change much amid the slightly dovish stance by Jerome Powell’s second speech. USDJPY traded at 115.453 at the end of the day on Thursday. Further price action eye on Friday’s US economic data.
Gold surged to $1941.29 per ounce in the late US trading session as the second round of the negotiation between Russia and Ukraine has not came up with a result yet.
Technical Analysis:
GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The British Pound sank again against the Dollar as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reassures the hawkish stance of the Fed. In his testament, Chairman Powell reassured senators that the Fed will reduce its balance sheet and commit to interest rate hikes in order rein in inflation. The second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine failed to stop Russia’s advance onto Ukraine’s soil. As of writing, Russian troops have entered Kherson, one of Ukraine’s key strategic port.
On the technical side, Cable is still trading above our projected support level at 1.3311 and the pair is expected to stay above this key support level. RSI for the pair sits at 42.82. Currently GBPUSD is trading below its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.3435, 1.35212
Support: 1.331
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The Euro continues to sell off and has dropped to a new multi-month low. The conflict in eastern Europe continues to weigh on the shared currency. Nord Stream 2, a key project that would bring energy costs lower, announced bankruptcy amid global economic sanctions on Russia. The ECB released its latest meeting, which stated a scaling back of accommodative monetary policy; furthermore, the PEPP is projected to end by March. Despite ECB’s expressed interest in scaling back accommodative monetary policies, the shared currency will continue to be unattractive as global central banks engage in direct interest rate adjustments.
On the technical side, EURUSD has, as projected, broken through our estimated support level at 1.11629. Further down support for the pair can be found at 1.1007. RSI for the pair has dripped to 32.2354, as of writing. EURUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.12793
Support: 1.11629
XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)
Gold traded sideways as no resolute came out of the second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The safe haven asset remains highly in demand as situations are still extremely fluid. As of writing, Russia troops have taken over a key strategic port of Ukraine. The recent volatility of gold seems to have waned, despite escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
On the technical side, a new support level has formed around 1918 for XAUUSD; on the other hand, a new resistance level at 1946 seems to have formed as well. As of writing, RSI for the precious metal sits at a neutral 54.81. XAUUSD is currently trading above its 50, 100, and 200 days SMA.
Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.
Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please note the specific adjustments as follows:
Note: The above data is for reference only, the actual execution data may be changed, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for details.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Equities rebounded sharply on Wednesday despite of the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine and a surge in crude oil price. At the same time, US equities moved higher after the testification of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, implying that the policy rate is likely to hike in March regardless of the war in Ukraine. The Dow Jones Industrial Averages climbed 1.79% while the Nasdaq Composite gains 1.62%; meanwhile, the S&P 500 added 1.86% at the end of the day on Wednesday.
Following the major economic sanctions toward Russia, rumors said that major cryptocurrencies might be next, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to the statistics from cryptocurrency provider Kaiko, it showed that transactions on centralized exchanges in Ruble has surged to the highest levels in months; this might be the move that Russians are using cryptocurrencies to hedge their risks, resulted from sanctions. With all of that, the US is reportedly trying out a new way to dial up the pressure on Russia and Putin, sanctioning cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
As Russia’s turmoil lifts oil price, OPEC+ eventually ratifies modest supply hike. The OPEC+ and its allies have agreed to increase 400,000 barrels a day, continuing the gradual restoration of output since the pandemic. However, oil price continues to surge above $110 a barrel on Wednesday.
Main Pairs Movement:
EURUSD falls to slightly below 1.1057, the lowest level in nearly two years. The euro dollar weakens as fears dominated financial markets; the war between Russia and Ukraine is going to have a negative impact on the economic growth, particularly in Eurozone besides in Russia and Ukraine themselves. On the other hand, the US ADP employment report adds 475K new jobs, better than expected; that being said, the US Fed is more likely to go ahead dealing with the policy rates, thus the US dollar gets boosted.
Gold declines from near- a 13 month high as risk sentiment is buoyed by the US Fed indicating the commitment to fighting inflation with interest rate hikes. Despite of the intensification of the war between Russia and Ukraine, gold dropped more than $17 per ounce in a minute after the speech from Jerome Powell.
WTI rallies for the third consecutive day, targeting a new high of $112.20 since 2017. The market sentiment is upbeat as the market continues to react and digest the impact of sanctions on Russia. Further price action of oil eye on the next step of OPEC+.
Technical Analysis:
GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)
Cable traded sideways against the Dollar over the course of yesterday’s trading. The U.S. ADP nonfarm employment change came in better than expected, thus buoying the Dollar. In his statement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated his support for a 25 basis point interest rate increase in March; however, Chairman Powell reiterated the uncertainty that the crisis in Ukraine and Russia has brought to financial markets. On the economic docket, the U.K. is due to release its February PMI data and the U.S., its initial jobless claims figures for the previous month.
On the technical side, Cable successfully defended the support level at 1.3311. The key resistance level at 1.3435 still stands unchallenged. RSI for the pair has resumed to normal levels at 39.64. At the time of writing, Cable is trading below its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.3435, 1.35212
Support: 1.331
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The Euro continued to trade lower against the Dollar for the second straight day. As of writing, the shared currency has fell 0.25% against the greenback. Worse than expected inflation data from the EU has sent the shared currency further down. With the U.S. Fed Reserve set on a tightening monetary policy, the Euro will continue to be disfavored compared to the Dollar.
On the technical side, the support level at 1.1087 still holds but this support level is relatively weak as the pair has dipped below multiple times. RSI for the pair sits at 38.17, as of writing. EURUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.12793
Support: 1.11629
XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)
Gold traded lower over the course of yesterday’s trading as global market participants reassessed the Ukraine – Russia crisis. The Dollar soared with the help of strong U.S. economic data and a strong rebound by U.S. equities. In his State of the Union speech, U.S. president Joe Biden reaffirmed the American public that President Putin’s aggression will not go without punished. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s support for a 25 basis point rate hike by March has also provided momentum for the greenback.
On the technical side, XAUUSD continues to be capped at 1950 for the past 2 days. Support level for gold at 1920 seems to have formed and the support level at 1900 still stands unchallenged. RSI for the pair has resumed to normal levels at 51.4, as of writing. Currently, XAUUSD is trading above its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Wall street three major indexes ended sharply on Tuesday, with the bank stocks tumbled due to falling U.S. Treasury yields and worries about the economic outlook after oil rose above $100 a barrel as Russia ramped up its crackdown on Ukraine. At the end of the market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.76% to 33,294.95 points, the S&P 500 index lost 1.55% to 4,306.24 and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.59% to 13,562.46 points. Not only U.S. stocks were under pressure, but so was Europe, with major stock indexes in Germany, France, Italy and Spain closing down more than 3%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 2.4%.
10 sectors in the S&P 500 ended lower, with the financial sector falling the most, down 3.71%, followed by material and information technology sectors, down 2.31% and 1.99%, respectively. The only winner is the energy sector, which has received a huge boost from skyrocketing oil prices. In the financial sector, regional banks including Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group, Zion Bank and Regional Financial Corporation lead the way financial stocks sold off as U.S. government yields, which dropped 7.94%, 5.95% and 8.60% respectively. Large-cap bank stocks were also hit hard, with JPMorgan Chase falling to a 52-week low, Wells Fargo and Bank of America down 5.77% and 3.91%, respectively. In the energy sector, APA Corporation, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum were among the top gainers, gaining 4.66%, 3.97% and 7.0%, respectively.
Main Pairs Movement:
Tension in Eastern Europe continue to lead financial markets. Safe-haven assets continued to rise as Russia escalated its attack on Ukraine, while President Vladimir Putin said the invasion would continue until he hit his target. Neutral countries have joined the global effort to stop Russia. Countries such as Switzerland and Finland are either sending armored vehicles to Ukraine or joining the financial blockade against Moscow. Meanwhile, the next round of talks between Russia and Ukraine will take place on Wednesday.
The dollar rose against most of its major rivals, especially Euro. EUR/USD fell to its lowest since June 2020 and closed around 1.11200, while GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3320. On the other hand, commodity-linked currencies were relatively strong, with AUD/USD hovering around 0.7300 ahead of intraday gains and ended little changed around 0.7250. USD/CAD edged higher to settle near 1.2735 amid stocks fell and ignored record crude oil prices.
The gold prices continued to surge and topped $1,950 an ounce intraday, and held most of its gains at the market close. In addition, oil prices surged to their highest level in seven years on concerns that the Russian war would affect supply. WTI was trading as high as $106.76 a barrel, while Brent was trading at $107.25.
Technical Analysis:
GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)
Cable fell sharp against the greenback as market sentiment turned risk off once again. Ramping up sanctions from global economic power houses did not seem to yield expected results, as President Putin continues to increase military presence in Ukraine. The Dollar continues to to be the choice for risk hedging, however, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak on the 2nd and could cause further price action for the Dollar.
On the technical side, Cable has fell through the short term support at 1.33722 and is consolidating around 1.3315, as of writing. RSI for Cable has dropped to 32.89, entering over-sold territory. GBPUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.3435, 1.35212
Support: 1.331
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The Euro sank against the Dollar and the shared currency is projected to head even lower. With no foreseeable end to the Ukraine-Russia crisis, Europe’s energy crisis is being exacerbated as global financial sanctions pile on to Russia. Despite no direct sanctions on Russian energy exports as of yet, European nations still rely heavily on Russian energy exports, thus escalating uncertainty in Eastern Europe will continue to have spill-over effects on the European region and its currency; furthermore, the ECB’s unwillingness to raise interest rates only acts as a downward pressure on the shared currency.
On the technical side, EURUSD has broken below our previously estimated support level at 1.116. As of writing, EURUSD is consolidating around 1.1116. RSI for the pair is sitting at 33.31, indicating some over selling. EURUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.12793
Support: 1.11629
XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)
Mounting tensions from the Ukraine-Russia crisis continue to send Gold prices higher. At the open of U.S. equity markets, Gold prices jumped 0.38% as market participants rotated into safe haven assets. However, the weaking U.S. treasury yield does not seem slow down the Dollar, evident from the Dollar index’s 0.77% intraday gain. As two of the world’s leading safe haven asset, Gold and the Dollar has recently exhibited highly correlated trading movements.
On the technical side, resistance levels for Gold seems to be irrelevant as any breaking news from Ukraine could send Gold flying through the resistance levels. Short term resistance level is projected at 1953 and Gold is firmly supported at the 1900 price level. RSI for XAUUSD is overheated at 71.49. XAUUSD is currently trading above its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Major indices declined on Monday following the weekend’s nuclear deterrent comment from Putin. However, equities market began splitting as the negotiation between Russia and Ukraine commenced. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.49% while the Nasdaq Composite closed higher at 0.41%; the S&P 500 closed slightly below the previous trading session, dropping 0.24% on Monday.
Currency markets were also a major area of volatility on Monday. In response to a currency move that the Ruble tumbled almost 22% against the US dollar and major sanction from several countries, the Central Bank of Russia decided to hike more than double of its interest rate, from 9.5% to 20%.
Along with the US joined allies in Canada and Europe in moving to remove Russian banks from SWIFT, Switzerland addressed that it will freeze Russian assets, setting aside a tradition of neutrality. Data from Swiss national bank has shown that there are more than 11 billion worth of assets in 2020.
Main Pairs Movement:
GBPUSD seesaws around 1.3410 heading into the Asian session on Tuesday. The British Pound bounced back on Monday as markets saw the development of Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a downside move in the safe- heaven currency, the US dollar.
Gold was once boosted more than $30 on Monday, but it cooldown back to $1,906 in the US session as the market mod has improved following the negotiation of Russia and Ukraine. The first round of the negotiation looks peaceful, which pares the safe- heaven demand.
West Texas Intermediate surged 7% towards $100 mark on Putin’s nuclear threats and Russia- SWIFT ban. WTI price jumps as Russia is going to face disruptions and obstacles to its oil export without SWIFT system. In the meantime, OPEC+ has revised down the market surplus estimate for 2022.
Technical Analysis:
GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)
Cable ended the day trading 0.4% higher than the previous day’s close. Market participants continue to favor the greenback as tensions between Ukraine and Russia are yet to resolve. Today’s Sterling gain is mostly attributed to decreasing U.S. treasury yields—the 10 year treasury yield is currently at 1.86%. With geopolitical conflicts yet to be resolved, the pound could continue to be dominated by the greenback.
On the technical side, Cable has found firm support around the 1.3311 price region. Near term resistance level at 1.3435 has been challenged but the pair is unable to break through that level yet. RSI for the pair sits at 47.1758. As of writing, Cable is trading below its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.3435, 1.3522
Support: 1.3311
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The Euro-Dollar pair saw a sharp drop at market open, but the pair was able to regain some ground as market sentiment for the Euro improved. News of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia buoyed the Euro, however the Dollar remains dominant as the safe haven asset. Lowering U.S. treasury yields also benefited the Euro.
On the technical side, the Euro-Dollar pair is facing a key resistance at around the 1.12251 price region, but the pair would see another key resistance level around 1.12793. RSI for the pair sits at 46.67, as of writing. EURUSD is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.12793
Support: 1.11629
XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)
Gold prices continue to be highly correlated to the events between Ukraine and Russia. Peace talks held today did not yield solid resolution to the conflict, unfortunately; furthermore, Russian president Putin’s unpredictable moves have sent gold prices higher. XAUUSD ended the day 1.07% higher than previous day’s close.
On the technical side, the resistance at 1909.16 is still firm, but gold prices can easily break through this level as market participants continue to use gold as a hedge for risk. RSI for XAUUSD 66.5, indicating some overbuying. Gold is currently trading above its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Stocks closed out a volatile week of trading, rebounding on Friday as markets reassessed the information from the war between Russia and Ukraine. US major equities, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.5%, while the S&P 500 added another 2.2% on Friday. The technology-heavy weighted Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6%, climbing back to the bullish territory. The equities market got a boost after Moscow Kremlin said that Russia is ready to send a delegation for negotiation with Ukraine.
Countries around the world are imposing sanctions against Russia and President Putin over his aggressive invasion of Ukraine. At the moment, several countries are working on the potential ban on SWIFT toward Russia. Moreover, Germany halts its certification of the Nord Stream 2 following Russia’s invasion. The US applied sanctions on Russian banks and companies; it would cut off Russian companies from raising funds in the US, including some energy giants and banks.
Main Pairs Movement
Gold hovers slightly below $1,900 as markets take a breather from the tension between Russia and Ukraine. The main price action of gold remains to focus on the intensity of the war and the tightening expectations from the FOMC.
EURUSD falls to fresh low following the weekend headline surrounding the war. As there is no full picture of the prospects of the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, markets embrace the safe-heaven, resulting in a decline in EURUSD.
GBPUSD tumbles toward 1.3300 on Russia’s nuclear deterrent on Ukraine. In the meantime, Russia announces the ban on the UK- registered aeroplanes from landing in Russia’s airspace in terms of retaliation.
AUDUSD slumps below 0.7200 amid the escalation of war between Russia and Ukraine. The nuclear comment from Russia put a huge downside pressure toward non-safe- haven currencies.
Technical Analysis:
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The EUR/USD pair advanced on Friday, recovering from the lowest level since June 2020. This is because of the improving market mood, as Russia indicated it was ready for talks with Ukraine. The pair dropped to a daily low near the 1.1170 mark during the European session but then regained upside tractions to recover most of its daily losses. The pair is now trading at 1.1244, posting a 0.47% gain daily. EUR/USD stays in the positive territory amid weaker US dollar across the board, as the risk aversion weighed on the greenback and helped riskier assets like EUR/USD to find demand. Russia said it was ready to send a delegation to Minsk, which revived some minor hopes that a diplomatic solution could ease the conflict. For the Euro, ECB President Christine Lagarde said today that the central bank stands ready to take whatever action is needed to ensure price and financial stability.
For the technical aspect, RSI indicator 44 figures as of writing, suggesting that the downside is more favoured as the RSI stays below the mid-line. But for the Bollinger Bands, the price rise towards the moving average after touching the lower band, indicating a continuation of upside traction for the pair. In conclusion, we think the market will be bullish as the pair is now testing 1.1240 resistance—a break above that level might open the road for near-term profits.
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1382, 1.1465
Support: 1.1161, 1.1132
GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The pair GBP/USD edged higher on Friday, struggling to extend the rebound from a two-month low that touched yesterday on mixed market sentiment. The pair was trading higher to a daily top above 1.3430 level during the Asian session but failed to preserve its bullish momentum and retreated to surrender some daily gains. At the time of writing, the cable stays in positive territory with a 0.16% gain for the day, flirting with 1.3380~1.3400 area on renewed US dollar weakness. The news reported that a probable meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials have lent some support to the market mood. But the fact that Russian forces have entered the Obolon district in Kyiv might limit further gains for the cable. For the British pound, British finance minister Rishi Sunak said he had spoken with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday to ensure financial stability after Russia’s invasion.
For the technical aspect, RSI indicator 36 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair remain technically bearish in the near term. For the Bollinger Bands, the price seems to lack momentum to rise towards the moving average, indicating that the pair could witness some downside movement. In conclusion, we think the market will be bearish as the pair might re-test the 1.3372 support—a significant positive shift risk sentiment is also unlikely to be seen in the short term.
Resistance: 1.3456, 1.3508, 1.3636
Support: 1.3372, 1.3336
USDCAD (4-Hour Chart)
As the market mood improved slightly heading into the weekend, the pair USD/CAD came under selling pressure and extend its previous day’s slide from a two-month high amid the retreating US dollar. The pair was trading lower at the start of the day and failed to stage a rebound in the early European session, now seeing fresh selling on positive news about the Russia/Ukraine war. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2740 at the time of writing, losing 0.60% daily. Reports from Russia said that Vladimir Putin is open to sending a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine. Therefore, the latest headlines about the Russian invasion disfavored the greenback and dragged USD/CAD lower. On top of that, falling crude oil prices failed to act as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair, as WTI has eased back to near $92.00 a barrel, amid the absence of sanctions from the US, EU and UK that directly restrict Russian energy exports.
For the technical aspect, RSI indicator 46 figures as of writing, suggesting that the downside is more favoured as the RSI stays below the mid-line. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price has crossed below the moving average, showing that the downside traction should persist. In conclusion, we think the market will be bearish as long as the 1.2840 resistance line holds.
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U.S. stocks staged a massive reversal Thursday after Wall Street’s main benchmarks each plunged more than 2% in early trading as Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine roiled financial markets around the globe. Nasdaq Composite rebounded from a morning sell-off that saw the index tumble more than 3% to close 3.4%, or 436 points higher, at 13,473.58 in its best day of 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in positive territory after plunging more than 800 points during intraday trading, and the S&P 500 bounced back from a drop of 1.5% to close 1.5% higher at 4,288.69.
President Joe Biden imposed stiff sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine as Western nations warned that Kyiv could fall. As Russian tanks, troops and aircraft pushed closer to Ukraine’s capital city, Biden, speaking to the nation from the White House, promised to inflict a “severe cost on the Russian economy” that will hamper its ability to do business in foreign currencies.
“This is a dangerous moment for all of Europe,” Biden said, adding that the “next few weeks and months will be hard on the people of Ukraine.” The Russian military effectively eliminated Ukraine’s air defenses and rapidly advanced across the neighboring country, meaning Kyiv could quickly be overrun as well, a senior Western intelligence official said.
After weeks of warnings that an attack would bring about a “massive” economic response, Biden announced that the U.S. would sanction Sberbank — Russia’s largest lender — and four other financial institutions that represent an estimated $1 trillion in assets, as well as a broad swath of Russian elites and their family members. Treasury said the penalties target “nearly 80 percent of all banking assets in Russia.”
Main Pairs Movement:
Panic took over financial markets as Russia launched a military attack on Ukraine. Moscow attacked not only the Donbas region but got near Kyiv during US trading hours. Russia ignores global sanctions and seems determined to take full control of Ukraine.
Gold soared to $1.974.40 a troy ounce, its highest since September 2020. The yellow metal then retreated and plummeted to the intraday lows at $1,880.00 price zone during US trading hours, as investors unwind fear-related trades following US President Biden’s statement.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Raphael Bostic noted that Fed policy is poised to return to a more normalized stance. Among other things, he added that he is “very open” to going for more than 3 rate hikes this year.
EUR/USD recovered from a fresh 2022 low of 1.1105 to currently trade around 1.1195. The GBP/USD pair stands at around 1.3380, while commodity-linked currencies dropped significantly during Thursday’s trade. Crude oil prices also dipped into negative territory after reaching multi-year highs. WTI traded as high as $100.50 a barrel, now changing hands at around $94.50. Brent trades at $99.50.
Technical Analysis:
EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The EUR/USD pair tumbled on Thursday, extending its previous slide from 1.1360 level amid panic through financial markets. The pair was surrounded by heavy bearish momentum most of the day, collapsing to monthly lows below 1.1160 mark in early American session. The pair is now trading at 1.1148, posting a 1.36% loss on a daily basis. EUR/USD stays in the negative territory amid risk-off market sentiment, as Russia launched a full scale of invasion on Ukraine earlier in the day. The fact that Russia started the military assault on Ukraine bolstered the demand for the safer assets like the US dollar, meanwhile acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. For the Euro, the latest geopolitical developments and risk appetite trends will keep deciding near-term direction for the currency, as there are no releases in the Eurozone calendar.
For technical aspect, RSI indicator 20 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair is in oversold zone now, a trend reversal could be expected. But for the Bollinger Bands, the price is dropping out of the lower band, indicating a strong trend continuation for the pair. In conclusion, we think market will be bearish as the pair is heading to test the 1.1132 support. The pair is clearly bearish in its 4-hour chart, with technical indicators heading firmly lower within negative levels.
Resistance: 1.1284, 1.1356, 1.1465
Support: 1.1132, 1.0995
GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)
The pair GBP/USD plunged on Thursday, suffering heavy losses and dropping to 1.3300 area after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The pair remained under massive selling pressure and refreshed its monthly low near 1.3310 mark, extending its heavy intraday losses heading into American session. At the time of writing, the cable stays in negative territory with a 1.43% loss for the day, preserving its downside traction on renewed US dollar strength. Investors now abandon their riskier assets and turned to safe-haven assets after Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized a special military operation in Donbas earlier in the day. A massive sell-off was also seen in the equity markets. For British pound, the currency is now undermined by the fact that the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine could dampen prospects for a 50 bps rate hike by the BoE at its March meeting.
For technical aspect, RSI indicator 19 figures as of writing, suggesting that a trend reversal could be possible as the pair is in oversold zone now. For the Bollinger Bands, the price is moving out of the lower band, indicating a strong trend continuation. In conclusion, we think market will be bearish as the pair just dropped below the previous 1.3372 support. If the bear can find constant strength below that level, short-term additional losses could be expected.
Resistance: 1.3522, 1.3636
Support: 1.3372, 1.3249, 1.3185
USDCAD (4-Hour Chart)
After Russia launched a full scale of invasion on Ukraine today, the pair USD/CAD came under slightly upside momentum amid stronger US dollar across the board. The pair witnessed fresh buying most of the day and reached the highest level since December 2021, now retreated slightly to surrender some of its daily gains. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2841 at the time of writing, rising 0.83% on a daily basis. Russian troops continued to cross the Ukrainian border and have reportedly destroyed Ukrainian military bases. Therefore, the worsening situation in Ukraine help the greenback to find strong demand and pushed USD/CAD higher. However, surging crude oil prices had underpinned the commodity-linked loonie and limit further gains for USD/CAD pair. WTI advanced to around $100 a barrel for the first time in eight years, as concerns about disruptions on global oil supply elevate following the attack from Russia.
For technical aspect, RSI indicator 69 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair is technically oversold in the near term. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price moved out of the upper band so a trend continuation is possible. In conclusion, we think market will be bullish as the pair is testing the 1.2843 resistance. On the upside, the pair could push lower toward 1.2900 if that resistance fails.
Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.
Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please note the specific adjustments as follows:
Note: The above data is for reference only, the actual execution data may be changed, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for details.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
