Deutsche Bank reported a sharp reversal in Brent crude after conflict-related headlines, as concern about Iran-linked supply risks eased. Brent fell 11.28% in one day to $87.80 a barrel, the largest daily drop since March 2022, and was slightly lower again the next morning. The 12-month Brent future dropped 1.93% to $72.05 a barrel. Brent was about 27% below Monday’s intra-day highs, but still around 20% above levels seen before US and Israeli strikes against Iran.

Drivers Of The Reversal

Price swings followed several news events, including US political comments and a statement from Saudi Aramco. Saudi Aramco said it would raise crude flows through its pipeline to the Red Sea to 7mb/day within a few days, allowing it to resume 70% of its usual oil shipments. Late-session reports about possible mining of the Strait of Hormuz briefly lifted prices. Prices then fell again after the Wall Street Journal reported that the IEA proposed the largest oil reserve release in history to address rising prices. Looking back at the sharp reversal in 2025, we are reminded how quickly geopolitical news can drive the oil market. That event, which saw an 11% one-day drop, serves as a crucial lesson for the current environment. With Brent currently trading around $92/bbl amid renewed Mideast shipping concerns, the potential for similar volatility remains high. Given the memory of 2025’s sudden price collapse, traders should consider strategies that profit from volatility itself. Implied volatility on Brent options has already crept up, with the OVX index rising from 30 to 35 in the last two weeks. This suggests using straddles or strangles could be more effective than taking a simple directional bet on prices. The underlying supply and demand fundamentals remain tight, which contrasts with the headline risks. The latest OPEC+ meeting maintained production cuts into the second quarter, and the EIA’s March 2026 outlook slightly lowered its forecast for US shale growth. This suggests that while a sudden diplomatic breakthrough could cause a price drop, the fundamental floor is higher than it was a year ago.

Positioning And Risk Management

We saw in 2025 how announcements from Saudi Aramco or the IEA could reverse a rally in a matter of hours. Therefore, holding long positions without protection is very risky in the coming weeks. Traders should consider using call spreads to cap upside but lower entry costs, or buying puts as a direct hedge against a sudden drop. The futures curve also tells a story, with the 12-month forward price around $81/bbl, indicating sustained tightness but not panic. This backwardation supports holding long positions, but the lessons from 2025 teach us to be prepared for sudden news to overwhelm fundamentals. Watch for any statements regarding strategic petroleum reserve releases, as this was a key driver of the sell-off back then. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold fell below $5,200 on Wednesday and reached a new daily low in early European trading. The drop came as the US dollar firmed after rebounding from a one-week low. The dollar’s move lacked strong momentum as markets judged that Crude Oil prices may not be high enough to block US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This expectation can support non-yielding gold.

Oil Pullback And Gold Sensitivity

Crude Oil pulled back after rising to its highest level since June 2022 earlier this week, following comments from US President Donald Trump about the Middle East war possibly ending soon. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the International Energy Agency has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history. Fighting continued, with Iran facing the most intense US-Israeli strikes on Tuesday. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would target opponents’ technological infrastructure in the region. Traders are waiting for US Consumer Price Index data due later today, with the US PCE Price Index due on Friday. Attention remains on risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz and oil supply disruption. Technically, gold moved above the rising 100-hour simple moving average, but buying did not continue. MACD (12, 26, close, 9) is below its signal line, and RSI (14) fell from above 70 to the mid-50s. Resistance is near $5,228, then $5,260. Support is at $5,190, then $5,160, with $5,140 below that.

Safe Haven And Fed Watch

Given the persistent conflict in the Middle East, gold remains a primary safe-haven asset, holding strong above the $5,200 level. The unpredictable situation around the Strait of Hormuz is creating significant volatility in crude oil markets, which directly impacts inflation expectations. This setup suggests that any news from the region will cause sharp, immediate moves in both gold and oil futures. The Federal Reserve is caught in a difficult position, as we have seen throughout early 2026. February’s CPI report showed core inflation holding firm at 3.1%, making the Fed hesitant to signal the rate cuts the market desires. Consequently, upcoming inflation data will be scrutinized for any signs that energy price shocks, with WTI futures holding above $90, are feeding into the broader economy. For derivatives traders, this environment suggests that buying calls on gold during any corrective dip towards the $5,160 support level could be a viable strategy. Given the high implied volatility, which we have seen spike over 25% on any escalation news, using call spreads can help manage the premium cost. This allows for participation in the upside while defining risk in case of a sudden de-escalation. We saw a similar dynamic in late 2025 when tensions first flared, where dips were aggressively bought and volatility spiked. Short-dated options that expire just after the US inflation data release could be a tactical way to play the event itself. A break above the $5,228 resistance level following a soft CPI number would likely trigger a rapid move higher, rewarding those positioned for it. On the other hand, the risk of a sudden peace agreement or a massive strategic petroleum reserve release, as has been proposed, cannot be ignored. Such an event would likely cause a sharp drop in both crude oil and gold prices. Therefore, holding some protective puts or structuring trades like collars could be prudent to hedge against a sudden reversal. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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MUFG said an IEA-coordinated oil reserve release could temporarily offset supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, while market attention turns towards US inflation. The February US CPI release is due today, with price effects from the attack expected to appear more clearly in next month’s data. Consensus forecasts point to headline CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2%, while core CPI is expected at 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points. Annual rates are forecast to stay at 2.4% for headline and 2.5% for core.

Energy Shock And Cpi Watch

Energy is expected to transmit the shock fastest, with the AAA national daily average petrol price up 18% in March to date through 9 March. That takes it to the highest level since July 2024. Energy’s weight in headline CPI was 6.38% as of December. A scenario with Nymex crude at USD 100 per barrel in Q1–Q2, then back to USD 70 by year-end, implies energy CPI could peak at 15–20% by mid-year. Under that scenario, headline CPI could rise by about 1.0 percentage point, assuming smaller increases in natural gas prices. US year-on-year energy CPI in Q4 was -20%. We are again focused on how an energy shock could drive inflation, much like the situation we saw around this time in 2025 following the Strait of Hormuz conflict. With Brent crude futures recently breaking above $95 per barrel due to renewed maritime tensions, the market is on edge. The potential for a coordinated reserve release is being discussed, but its impact may be temporary.

Market Positioning And Volatility

All eyes are on the upcoming US CPI data for February 2026, which will be critical in shaping the Federal Reserve’s next move. Early indications suggest a hotter-than-expected print, with some economists forecasting a 0.4% month-over-month rise in the headline number. This would be a significant acceleration and challenge the narrative of disinflation. We must remember the lesson from last year when a similar situation unfolded. In March 2025, we saw US gasoline prices surge by 18% in just the first nine days of the month. This pass-through from energy prices ultimately added nearly a full percentage point to headline CPI by the middle of that year. The current situation is developing rapidly, as the national average for gasoline is already up 10% so far this March. If oil prices remain elevated near $100 per barrel through the second quarter, we could see energy CPI once again peak in the 15-20% year-over-year range. This presents a clear upside risk to inflation forecasts for the coming months. Traders should consider positioning for increased volatility and persistent inflation. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has already climbed to over 18, reflecting rising uncertainty. Options strategies on energy futures and inflation swaps could offer a direct way to hedge or speculate on these unfolding price pressures. This environment also calls for a close watch on interest rate derivatives, as a sticky, energy-driven CPI could force the Fed to delay any planned rate cuts. This implies opportunities in trades that benefit from a stronger US dollar. It would also be prudent to look at downside protection on major equity indices, as sustained high energy prices could dampen economic growth. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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DBS Group Research said the DXY Index failed to break above 99.7 after an oil price fall. The note linked the move to weaker demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven as the “energy apocalypse” trade faded and G7/IEA actions reduced pressure. The report said Federal Reserve policy is already restrictive, with a positive real policy rate of +0.75%. It contrasted this with a real policy rate of -5.65% at the start of the Ukraine crisis.

Dollar Upside Now Limited

DBS noted US unemployment is 4.4% and said this limits the scope for further US Dollar gains compared with 2022. It added that expecting two Fed cuts in 2026 reduces the chance of a rate-hike driven rise in the Dollar. The note said only a renewed Iran conflict that triggers a long inflation spiral could remove expectations for two 2026 cuts. It also said the gap between the real rate stance and labour market conditions puts a ceiling on the Dollar that it did not face in 2022. The US Dollar Index’s failure to break the 99.7 level suggests a major shift in market sentiment. With oil prices dropping significantly since late 2025, the intense demand for the dollar as a safe haven has cooled. This technical rejection at a key resistance point should be seen as a strong signal that the dollar’s upside is now limited. Unlike the environment in 2022, the Federal Reserve is no longer aggressively fighting inflation. The current real interest rate is a restrictive +0.75%, and with unemployment ticking up to 4.4%, the Fed’s focus has clearly shifted toward engineering a soft landing. This removes the powerful rate-hike momentum that previously drove the dollar higher.

Strategy Implications For Dxy

Recent data reinforces this view, as February’s Consumer Price Index came in at a manageable 3.1%, supporting the market’s expectation for rate cuts later this year. The drop in WTI crude prices to below $80 a barrel further eases inflationary pressures, giving the Fed more room to maneuver. For us, this means the dollar lacks a compelling reason to rally strongly from here. Given this ceiling on the dollar, we should consider strategies that profit from range-bound price action or a slight decline. Selling DXY call options with strike prices above 100 or establishing bearish call spreads could be effective ways to capitalize on this capped upside. These positions benefit as long as the index stays below key resistance and from a likely decrease in implied volatility. This environment also makes being long other currencies against the dollar more attractive. After looking back at the Bank of Japan’s hawkish shift in late 2025, buying call options on the Japanese Yen seems particularly compelling. A stagnant dollar combined with a less dovish central bank in Japan creates a favorable setup for JPY strength. The primary risk to this outlook is a sudden escalation of geopolitical conflict, particularly concerning Iran, that could trigger a new energy crisis. Such an event would reignite inflation fears and force markets to abandon the pricing of two Fed rate cuts for 2026. This would provide the dollar with a new, unexpected tailwind, invalidating the current capped-upside thesis. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Spain’s retail sales rose by 4% year on year in January. This was up from 2.9% in the previous period. The data shows faster annual growth in retail activity compared with the prior reading. It indicates an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous figure.

Spanish Consumer Resilience Signals Upside

The jump in Spanish retail sales to 4% shows surprising strength and resilience from the consumer. We should reconsider any overly pessimistic views on Eurozone domestic demand that have been priced into the market. This underlying strength could provide a positive catalyst for regional equities in the coming weeks. This data directly supports a more bullish stance on Spain’s IBEX 35 index. Consumer-facing stocks, in particular, should be on our radar for potential upside. We see opportunities in short-dated call options on the index or on individual retail and travel giants, anticipating that the market has not yet fully absorbed this positive signal. This robust data point complicates the picture for the European Central Bank. With the latest Eurozone core inflation figures we saw last week still stubbornly high at a reported 2.3%, this consumer strength makes a near-term interest rate cut less probable. Consequently, we should be prepared for upward pressure on short-term European government bond yields. From a currency perspective, this reinforces the narrative of Spain outperforming its peers, especially after Germany reported weaker industrial production numbers for January. This divergence adds a layer of support for the Euro, particularly against currencies with a more dovish central bank outlook. We could see the EUR/USD pair test its recent highs on the back of this relative economic strength.

Market Echoes From The 2025 Cycle

We recall how the market consistently underestimated the consumer recovery throughout 2025. Similar strong data points back then were initially dismissed before leading to a sustained rally in European assets. This January 2026 figure feels like an echo of that period, suggesting current market positioning might again be too cautious. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/USD was little changed and stayed below 1.1650. Over the prior session, 2‑year Bund yields fell about 6bp and 2‑year US Treasury yields fell 2bp. Markets are focused on the US February CPI release. Danske forecasts headline CPI at +0.3% m/m (seasonally adjusted) and 2.5% y/y, with energy inflation supported by rising US petrol prices that started before the war in Iran.

Us February Cpi In Focus

Danske also forecasts core CPI at +0.2% m/m (seasonally adjusted) and 2.5% y/y. The view is based on a low housing contribution. The report says the forecasts are marginally above consensus. It also states this is not expected to materially change current market pricing for the US dollar or interest rates. Attention is also on planned remarks from ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. The ECB silent period ahead of the March meeting begins tomorrow, and both Luis de Guindos and Schnabel are scheduled to speak today. We see the EUR/USD is holding steady below 1.0800, a marked difference from the 1.1650 level we were observing this time last year. The main driver continues to be inflation, with the most recent US CPI data for February 2026 coming in at 2.8%, just above market forecasts. This release will likely reinforce the current strength of the US dollar.

Policy Divergence And Trading Implications

This persistent inflation supports the view that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance, especially when contrasted with the European Central Bank which held rates steady last week. This policy divergence should continue to favour the dollar. We see one-month implied volatility for EUR/USD has consequently risen to 9.2%, suggesting traders are pricing in more uncertainty. Much like how we watched energy prices during the conflict in Iran back in 2025, we are now focused on ongoing global supply chain reports. Comments from ECB officials will be closely watched for any deviation from their current dovish tone before they enter their silent period. Any change in their language could create short-term trading opportunities. The yield difference between 2-year US Treasuries and German Bunds has now widened to 160 basis points, making long-dollar positions more attractive. Derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from a stable or stronger dollar, such as selling out-of-the-money call options on the Euro. This approach takes advantage of both the interest rate differential and elevated volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The G7 said on Wednesday that its energy ministers backed, in principle, proactive steps to respond to current conditions, including using strategic reserves, according to Reuters. This followed a Wall Street Journal report that the International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed its largest-ever release of oil reserves to help bring down crude prices during the US-Israel conflict with Iran. The IEA’s 32 member states held an emergency meeting on Tuesday to review the Middle East situation and its effect on oil prices. In market trading, WTI rose back towards $85 but remained about 1% lower on the day.

Wti Benchmark Overview

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is one of three main crude benchmarks, alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. It is described as “light” and “sweet” due to low density and low sulphur content, is sourced in the United States, and is distributed via the Cushing hub. WTI prices are driven mainly by supply and demand, with global growth affecting consumption and conflicts, sanctions, and political instability affecting supply. OPEC production decisions and the US Dollar also influence prices because oil is traded in US Dollars. Weekly inventory reports from the API (Tuesday) and the EIA (Wednesday) can move prices, as falling stocks can imply stronger demand and rising stocks can imply higher supply. Their results are within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The G7 and IEA are signaling a major release from strategic reserves to combat high prices. However, the market seems hesitant, with WTI crude holding near $85 because the underlying US-Israel conflict with Iran continues to threaten actual supply. This sets up a classic battle between a potential artificial supply glut and a very real geopolitical risk premium for traders to navigate.

Trading Implications And Volatility

We should consider the possibility of a sharp, short-term price drop if this is the largest reserve release in history. Looking back, the coordinated 180 million barrel release throughout 2022 was effective in helping push prices down from over $120 to below $90 within a few months. Traders anticipating a repeat of this playbook might look at buying May WTI put options or establishing bear call spreads. On the other hand, an SPR release could be a drop in the ocean if the conflict disrupts actual production or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The latest EIA report showed a surprise inventory draw of 3.1 million barrels, suggesting the physical market is already extremely tight. We also hear credible rumors that OPEC+ is considering an emergency meeting to announce deeper production cuts to counteract any IEA release. Given these opposing forces, the most certain outcome in the coming weeks is higher volatility. The crude oil volatility index (OVX) has surged past 45 in recent days, a level not sustained since the early days of the conflict last year. This suggests that non-directional derivative strategies like long straddles or strangles, which profit from a large price move in either direction, could be more prudent than betting on a specific outcome. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD edged up to about 1.3450 in Asian trading on Wednesday, after small losses in the prior session. Sterling rose as markets judged the Middle East conflict may have a smaller effect on inflation than first expected. Risk appetite improved as oil prices eased after the Wall Street Journal said the International Energy Agency is considering its largest-ever oil reserve release. The proposed release would be larger than the 182 million barrels sold in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Middle East Conflict And Market Impact

US President Donald Trump said the conflict could end quickly and said the US Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The move is aimed at protecting key shipping routes. Bank of England rate expectations shifted back towards possible cuts, with Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley now looking for the first cut in the second quarter. Higher energy prices had raised inflation concerns that could alter easing plans. Markets price a 98% chance the BoE keeps rates unchanged this month, based on London Stock Exchange Group data. Reuters reported a British brokerage moved an expected March cut to the second quarter, trimmed later cuts by 0.25 percentage points, and kept a terminal rate of 3.25% by end-2026. The US dollar stayed soft ahead of US CPI data due later. US officials said operations in Iran were intensifying, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the Strait of Hormuz blockade would continue until US and Israeli attacks stop.

Oil Prices And Sterling Volatility

The recent strength in the Pound Sterling is primarily a reaction to cooling oil prices. We’ve seen Brent crude pull back below $100 a barrel from its February 2026 peak of $115, driven by talk of the largest-ever strategic reserve release from the IEA. This has temporarily eased the inflation fears that dominated market sentiment at the start of this year. This uncertainty is clearly reflected in the derivatives market, where traders are pricing in significant moves. One-month implied volatility for GBP/USD is hovering near 11.5%, a sharp contrast to the calmer 7% average we saw for most of 2025. This indicates that the market expects sharp price swings, not a return to stability, making strategies that profit from volatility worth considering. The geopolitical risk is far from over, despite reassuring statements about protecting shipping lanes. With about one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz, any escalation would send energy prices soaring again. The conflicting reports from political and military officials mean headline risk will be a major driver for the foreseeable future. Central bank policy remains a key factor, with the Bank of England’s hands tied by stubborn inflation. The latest data for February 2026 showed UK CPI at 3.8%, still well above the 2% target, which justifies the market pushing rate cut expectations into the second quarter. All eyes are now on this afternoon’s US CPI data, where forecasts for a 0.4% month-over-month increase could strengthen the dollar and cap any further gains for the pound. We saw a similar pattern in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, where the initial energy shock led to months of sustained currency volatility. Traders should therefore look at options structures that can perform whether the recent optimism holds or if the conflict escalates further. Given the market is now pricing a BoE terminal rate of 3.25% by the end of the year, positioning for a hawkish surprise from the central bank later this summer could be a valuable trade. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CAD stayed lower in early European trade on Wednesday, holding just above the mid-1.3500s and down nearly 0.15% on the day. It remained close to a near one-month low reached on Monday and appeared open to further falls. The US Dollar faced selling as markets priced in the chance of US rate cuts, with lower crude oil prices seen as less of a constraint on Federal Reserve policy. Another drop in crude oil, which can weaken demand for the Canadian dollar, did not prevent USD/CAD from moving down.

Technical Signals Point Lower

Price action showed a break below a short-term range and sustained trade under the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index sat in the low-40s, pointing to mild downside pressure rather than an oversold reading. The MACD line stayed slightly above its Signal line but near zero, suggesting weak momentum. On the 4-hour chart, the pair remained below a gently falling 100-period SMA near 1.3657, limiting rebounds. Resistance levels were noted at 1.3600, then 1.3657, and 1.3690. Support was at 1.3540, with 1.3500 next if 1.3540 breaks, while a move above 1.3657 would reduce the bearish bias. Given the current weakness in the USD/CAD pair, derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from further downside. The pair is currently struggling just above the 1.3550 mark, and the fundamental backdrop supports a continued decline. With the recent US February CPI print coming in at a milder-than-expected 2.8%, the market is pricing in a higher probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this summer. This outlook is reinforced by the stabilization of energy markets, which contrasts sharply with the volatility we saw last year. WTI crude has been holding steady around the $75 per barrel mark, removing a key inflationary pressure that previously concerned the Fed. This gives the central bank more leeway to ease policy, putting downward pressure on the US Dollar that is overpowering any weakness in the commodity-linked loonie.

Options Strategy For Further Downside

We remember how in mid-2025, oil prices spiking to over $90 a barrel created significant headwinds for any policy easing, a factor that is now absent. The technical picture aligns with this bearish sentiment, as the pair has broken below key moving averages. This suggests that the path of least resistance is lower for the USD/CAD in the coming weeks. Considering this, buying put options with a strike price around 1.3500 could be an effective way to position for a drop. The immediate support level is seen at 1.3540, and a convincing break below that would open the door to our target. This strategy allows for participation in the downward move while clearly defining the maximum risk. However, we must remain disciplined and manage the risk of this bearish view. A sustained move back above the 1.3657 area would signal that the downward momentum has faded and would serve as our key level to reconsider bearish positions. This level acted as a strong technical cap and would need to be breached to shift the near-term outlook. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Denison Mine reported an adjusted quarterly loss of $0.02 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compared with an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share a year earlier. In the prior quarter, the estimate was a loss of $0.02 per share, while the result was a loss of $0.01, a +50% surprise. Across the last four quarters, it beat consensus EPS estimates twice. Revenue for the quarter ended December 2025 was $0.88 million, 12.44% above the consensus estimate. This compared with $0.84 million a year earlier, and the company beat consensus revenue estimates three times in the last four quarters. Denison Mine shares rose about 43.2% since the start of the year, while the S&P 500 fell 0.7%. Near-term price moves may depend on management comments on the earnings call. The stock held a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) ahead of the release. The current consensus estimates are EPS of -$0.02 on $0.78 million revenue for the next quarter, and EPS of -$0.06 on $3.2 million revenue for the fiscal year. The Mining – Miscellaneous industry ranks in the top 25% of 250+ Zacks industries. Zacks research says the top 50% outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1. Almonty Industries has not yet reported for the quarter ended December 2025. It is expected to post a loss of $0.01 per share, with the estimate revised 7.1% higher in 30 days, and revenue of $10.13 million, up 125.7% year on year. Looking back at the fourth quarter 2025 results, we saw Denison Mine meet its earnings per share targets while delivering a solid revenue beat. This performance, combined with its strong 43.2% share price gain throughout 2025, confirmed a bullish foundation for the company. The positive sentiment was further supported by the mining sector’s overall strength. The key driver in the weeks since that report has been the uranium spot price, which has continued its upward trend. Since the beginning of the year, spot prices have surged past $105 per pound, an increase of over 10%, fueled by persistent supply concerns and growing demand for nuclear energy. This macroeconomic tailwind directly benefits future revenue projections for developers like Denison. This sustained momentum in the underlying commodity suggests a bullish outlook, reinforcing the favorable trends we observed late last year. The consistent outperformance of the mining industry relative to the broader market has continued into the first quarter of 2026. We believe this environment warrants a bullish stance on the company’s direction. For derivative traders, the stock’s strong run has pushed up implied volatility, making options premiums richer. This presents an opportunity for strategies that benefit from high volatility and a positive directional view. Selling cash-secured puts at strike prices below the current market level could be an effective way to collect this elevated premium. This approach allows for generating income while defining a potential entry point at a discount should the stock experience a minor pullback. We see any market-driven weakness in the coming weeks as a chance to implement this strategy. The focus should be on near-term expiration dates to capitalize on the current sentiment and volatility. We will be watching for any new company updates on its Wheeler River project, as progress on its development timeline is the next major catalyst. These updates will likely have a significant impact on options pricing leading into the summer. The positive industry backdrop provides a strong floor for the stock, barring any unforeseen operational setbacks.

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