US Dollar’s Current State: The US dollar shows a rangebound pattern, with minimal gains amid mixed Treasury yields and market caution.
Anticipation of Key Events: Traders are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of significant events, including US PCE data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday.
Bank Holiday Impact: Thinner market liquidity expected due to a bank holiday on Friday and Easter Monday in some European countries, potentially delaying market reactions.
Core PCE Data Significance: Friday’s core PCE data release is crucial for understanding consumer price trends, influencing policymakers’ decisions.
Fed Chair Powell’s Speech: His speech is keenly awaited for hints on the timing of the first interest rate cut in 2024.
Delayed Market Reaction Expected: Market response to these events may be postponed until the following week due to the holiday.
Reduced Liquidity Warning: Traders advised to exercise caution as reduced liquidity over the holiday could lead to larger price swings.
Technical Analysis Focus: The article will next explore the technical setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD, identifying key support and resistance levels for strategic trading.
STOCK MARKET:
Late-Day Reversal: US stocks, after a strong start, reversed gains towards the end of Tuesday’s session.
Nasdaq’s Decline: The Nasdaq Composite fell approximately 0.4%, missing a record close.
S&P 500 and Dow Jones Performance: The S&P 500 dipped nearly 0.3%, and the Dow Jones dropped about 0.1%.
Economic Data Focus: Attention was on economic data, including a 1.4% rise in durable goods orders in February, driven by transportation equipment and machinery orders.
Home Price Index Rise: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index increased by 6% in January year-over-year, marking the highest annual rise since 2022.
Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March showed a slight decrease in consumer confidence about the US economy’s future.
Expectations Index Dip: A decline in the Expectations Index to 73.8 in March from 76.3 indicates potential recession signals for the coming year.
PCE Inflation Data Anticipation: Markets await the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index release on Friday, giving insight into inflation trends.
Trump Media & Technology Group’s Debut: Former President Donald Trump’s social media company made its debut on Wall Street, ending the day up 16% after an earlier surge.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
This week witnessed a slight retreat in major U.S. stock indexes, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all experiencing downturns, contrasting sharply with their recent record highs. Notably, Tesla, Seagate Technology, and Krispy Kreme outperformed, driven by positive developments. Mixed economic data revealed robust durable goods orders but a drop in consumer confidence, setting a cautious tone for investors as they await key reports on personal consumption and labor market trends. In currency markets, the dollar index recovered, supported by U.S. Treasury yield rebounds and anticipation of upcoming economic data releases. The forex market sees cautious trading, with the USD/JPY pair in focus amid intervention concerns, and the EUR/USD facing downward pressure due to diverging central bank policies and economic forecasts. The market remains watchful, with investors poised for the next set of economic indicators to gauge future directions.
Stock market updates
The S&P 500 experienced a downturn for the third consecutive session, evidencing a modest retreat in the broader market. This downtrend saw the S&P 500 decline by 0.28%, closing at 5,203.58, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.42%, ending the day at 16,315.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly decreased by 31.31 points, or 0.08%, to settle at 39,282.33. This cooling period contrasts sharply with the performance seen last week when all three indexes reached record highs on Thursday, and the Dow neared the 40,000 milestone. Notably, Tesla, Seagate Technology, and Krispy Kreme were among the stocks that bucked the day’s downward trend, posting significant gains due to various positive developments.
Market dynamics on Tuesday were influenced by a mix of economic indicators and corporate news. Tesla’s shares surged nearly 3%, marking a notable rebound for the electric vehicle giant amidst a challenging year. Seagate Technology enjoyed a 7.4% uplift after an optimistic rating upgrade by Morgan Stanley, fueled by artificial intelligence prospects. Krispy Kreme’s shares skyrocketed by 39% following the announcement of an expanded partnership with McDonald’s, signaling positive investor sentiment towards these corporate strategies. According to Tom Hainlin, a senior investment strategist, the market’s expansion to include more cyclical sectors is a reflection of enduring economic health and persistently high inflation, despite mixed signals from Tuesday’s economic data, including robust durable goods orders but declining consumer confidence.
As the month draws to a close in a relatively quiet trading environment, expectations are set for the market’s performance in light of upcoming economic reports. Ross Mayfield, an investment strategy analyst, suggests that investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of crucial updates on personal consumption expenditure and labor market openings. The major stock indexes are poised for their fifth consecutive month of gains, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average showing increases of over 2%, 1.4%, and 0.7%, respectively, for March. This resilience underscores the market’s capacity to sustain growth momentum amidst varying economic signals.
Currency market updates
The dollar index witnessed a revival, climbing back to positive territory amidst cautious trading ahead of the quarter-end and upcoming holidays, bolstered by mildly supportive U.S. economic data and anticipation of Friday’s core PCE update. The uplift in Treasury yields and the dollar was partly fueled by a rebound in U.S. durable goods orders, although mixed signals came from regional Fed manufacturing indexes and a dip in consumer confidence below expectations. The two-year Treasury yields saw a brief recovery, influenced by a solid five-year auction, setting the stage for potential shifts in yield and dollar movements post the critical core PCE, income, and consumption data release, with the forex market open for trading despite the closure of bond and stock markets on Friday.
In the currency pairs, USD/JPY modestly increased after overcoming concerns of potential Japanese intervention, which had been a hot topic following the Bank of Japan’s rate hike. Despite speculation and previous interventions aimed at curbing the yen’s decline, the upcoming U.S. economic data could solidify the dollar’s uptrend, making it difficult to justify intervention based on fundamental analysis. Meanwhile, EUR/USD experienced a slight decline, with market sentiment influenced by expectations of policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed, further compounded by pessimistic GDP forecasts for Germany contrasted with an upgraded U.S. GDP outlook by the FOMC.
The Swiss franc emerged as the weakest among major currencies, influenced by expectations of further rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank. Sterling remained stable, facing resistance ahead of recent highs, while the yuan found some footing after a previous setback, hinting at state-supported stabilization efforts. The currency market’s dynamics continue to be shaped by a complex interplay of economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical factors, awaiting more definitive direction from upcoming high-tier U.S. data and its implications for global financial markets.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD holds steady as central banks signal easing cycles amid mixed economic signals
In a day marked by slight movements, the US dollar saw a marginal rise, leading to a modest decline in the EUR/USD pair, which hovered around 1.0830. This minor fluctuation occurred amidst a backdrop of falling US and German yields, reflecting broader uncertainties and a cautious outlook from investors. Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are gearing up for anticipated easing cycles starting possibly in June, with the pace of interest rate cuts expected to vary between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Despite differing strategies, the ECB is poised not to fall significantly behind the Fed in its monetary easing efforts.
The week also highlighted contrasting perspectives within the Fed regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, underpinning a broader debate on how to navigate current economic challenges while aiming for a “soft landing.” With the FedWatch Tool indicating a rising probability for a rate cut in June, and ECB officials signaling readiness for easing, the stage is set for potential shifts in monetary policy that could impact currency dynamics.
Amid these developments, the enduring resilience of the US economy, juxtaposed with the euro area’s more tepid fundamentals, suggests a medium-term outlook favoring a stronger dollar. This scenario sets the stage for a potential deeper correction in the EUR/USD pair, with targets looming at the year-to-date low around 1.0700 and possibly extending towards the 1.0500 level observed in late 2023. The interplay of central bank policies, economic indicators, and market sentiment will be critical in shaping the currency pair’s trajectory in the coming months.
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD moved higher, able to reach near the upper band but then moved back lower to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving slightly below the middle band, suggesting a potential slight downward movement to reach the lower band. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position at 42, signaling a neutral but bearish outlook for this currency pair.
Sydney, Australia, 27 March 2024 – Global multi-asset broker VT Markets recently successfully participated in the World Affiliate Dubai conference, a prestigious event brought together global top affiliate marketers and ecommerce entrepreneurs to network and exchange professional insights among peers.
The abovementioned event, along with the Smart Vision Summit Oman 2024 in mid-February, where VT Markets picked up the Best Forex Introducing Broker Provider award, are key events in the region that serve the fintech community by facilitating the exchange of information, while providing a platform for key industry players to showcase their innovations and solutions to the public. These engagements signify an integral part of VT Markets’ strategic growth plans in the MENA region.
In addition to active participation in industry events, VT Markets recently achieved notable recognition at the International Business Magazine Awards 2024, securing three prestigious accolades: Best Multi-Asset Broker MENA 2024, Most Reliable Trading Platform MENA 2024, and Most Transparent Forex Broker MENA 2024. A spokesperson for VT Markets commented, “Winning these awards underscores our unwavering commitment to delivering trading excellence to our clients, with reliability and transparency as our guiding principles.”
VT Markets is committed to providing comprehensive and unparalleled client experiences, including personalized account management and priority customer support. Further elevating the experience, private luxury car commutes are made available for client consultations, ensuring clients enjoy seamless financial journeys in every way.
Looking ahead, VT Markets remains proactive in its engagement with the MENA region, with plans to participate in the upcoming Brokersview Expo on April 16th, 2024. This global event, which integrates resources from the financial sector, further solidifies VT Markets’ ongoing commitment to the MENA region as it continues its momentum into the second quarter of 2024.
About VT Markets:
VT Markets is a regulated multi-asset broker with a presence in over 160 countries. To date, it has won numerous international accolades including Best Customer Service and Fastest Growing Broker.
In line with its mission to make trading accessible to all, VT Markets currently offers unfettered access to over 1,000 financial instruments and a seamless trading experience via its award-winning mobile app.
GBP/USD Movement: The British Pound has slightly risen above 1.26 against the US Dollar, fueled by anticipation of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve in June.
Market Sentiments: Confidence is high among investors that the US will commence lowering borrowing costs in June, with over a 70% probability indicated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Fedwatch tool.
Federal Reserve Signals: Statements from the Federal Reserve have led markets to expect a drop in borrowing costs this year, contingent on sustained inflation decreases.
Bank of England Stance: While hinting at reaching the peak of interest rates, the Bank of England suggests it might not cut rates before the US, considering persistent inflation issues.
UK’s Economic Indicators:
Fitch upgraded the UK’s credit rating from ‘negative’ to ‘stable.’
Retail sales in January remained steady despite adverse weather conditions, contradicting economists’ expectations of a decline.
The UK is seen as gradually recovering from a mild recession, presenting a slightly more positive outlook than initially predicted.
Upcoming Economic Data:
US Durable Goods orders, set to be released on Tuesday, will be a key focus for GBP/USD traders.
The UK’s final GDP figures for the fourth quarter will be announced on Thursday, adding to this week’s significant economic updates.
Top of Form
STOCK MARKET:
Key Highlights:
Tesla’s New Promotion: Tesla introduces a one-month free trial of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to U.S. customers.
CEO Announcement: Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, announced the trial offer on the social media platform X, aiming to boost sales and margins amid decreasing demand and competitive pricing pressures.
Product Details and Challenges: Despite being marketed at $12,000, FSD has yet to achieve full autonomy as promised by Musk, facing regulatory and safety scrutiny.
Implementation Strategy: Musk instructed Tesla employees to demonstrate FSD features to new buyers and serviced vehicle owners, emphasizing its capabilities in internal communications.
Consumer Response: The uptake of FSD among Tesla customers has decreased, dropping from 53% in Q3 2019 to 14% in Q3 2022 according to researcher Troy Teslike.
Financial Impact: Aggressive price cuts and declining FSD sales have significantly affected Tesla’s profit margins, with the company also anticipating lower delivery growth for the year due to a focus on new electric vehicle (EV) production.
Analyst Perspective: Industry analysts view the FSD demonstration mandate as one of Musk’s tactics to improve quarterly sales figures and revenues, amidst challenges.
Subscription Option: Tesla also offers FSD as a subscription service for $199 a month, highlighting that the technology requires driver supervision and does not fully automate the vehicle.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
This week witnessed a modest retreat in stock markets, with key indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite pulling back from recent record highs, while the currency market saw nuanced movements amid varying global fiscal policies and geopolitical tensions. Intel and United Airlines faced declines due to regulatory and operational headwinds, respectively, slightly dampening the otherwise strong momentum driven by tech enthusiasm and Federal Reserve policies. Meanwhile, the dollar index experienced a slight dip, influenced by a mix of foreign exchange interventions, regulatory actions in China, and shifts in bond yields that affected major currency pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY. As investors gear up for the release of the U.S. core PCE data, the market remains attuned to potential signals on inflation and monetary policy directions, balancing optimism with caution amid ongoing economic developments.
Stock market updates
Stocks experienced a slight downturn on Monday, initiating a subdued start to the trading week and momentarily pausing the upward trajectory that had propelled Wall Street to unprecedented highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated by 162.26 points, or 0.41%, to close at 39,313.64. The S&P 500 also witnessed a minor pullback, dropping 0.31% to end the day at 5,218.19. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite edged lower by 0.27%, finishing at 16,384.47. Contributing to the market’s tepid performance, Intel’s shares fell by 1.7% following reports from the Financial Times about China’s new guidelines that could potentially restrict the use of the company’s chips in government servers. United Airlines saw a more significant decline, dropping 3.4% after announcements of increased scrutiny from the Federal Aviation Administration due to recent safety concerns.
Despite the day’s losses, the broader market remains on a robust growth path, marking its fifth consecutive month of gains and reaching new all-time highs last week. Last week’s rally was particularly strong, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq Composite rising by approximately 2.3%, 2%, and 2.9%, respectively. This surge was buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s reaffirmation of its rate-cutting timeline and a sustained interest in tech stocks, driven partly by the enthusiasm for AI technologies. Market sentiment has remained resiliently optimistic, as evidenced by the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey, which continues to reflect a positive outlook above historical averages.
However, some market participants expressed concerns over the sustainability of the rally and the prospect of enduring high-interest rates. With the S&P 500 trading at a 33% premium over its 20-year average price-to-earnings ratio, the stage is set for cautious observation. Investors are keenly awaiting the release of the February personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for further clues about inflation’s trajectory. Despite expectations of a muted response to the PCE data, the market’s anticipation underscores the ongoing scrutiny of inflationary pressures and their implications for future monetary policy.
Currency market updates
In the currency markets, the dollar index saw a modest decline of 0.19%, as the EUR/USD pair experienced a rebound of 0.27%. This movement came after the pair managed to recoup some of its previous losses, tracing back to a significant Fibonacci retracement level. Contributing factors to the dollar’s pullback included a temporary dip in USD/JPY after Japan’s Ministry of Finance intensified its rhetoric on foreign exchange intervention and measures by Chinese authorities to stabilize the yuan following a sharp drop. Additionally, reports indicated that Chinese regulators are urging banks to expedite loan approvals for private property developers, adding a layer of complexity to the currency dynamics.
The British pound found its footing and began the week on a stronger note after bouncing off a key Fibonacci support level. Meanwhile, currency markets were also influenced by movements in bond yields, particularly as energy prices continued to climb amid geopolitical tensions and Russia’s compliance with OPEC+ production cuts. The interplay between Treasury and JGB yields, alongside speculation about Japan’s monetary policy, offered a nuanced backdrop for the USD/JPY pair, which remained a focal point of investor attention due to potential interventions and the broader implications for yen valuations.
As the week progresses, market participants are bracing for the release of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, with anticipations of how it might influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. The timing of the data release, coupled with month-end and fiscal year-end flows, especially for the yen, suggests the potential for heightened volatility in currency markets. The prospect of hawkish signals from the PCE data could embolden USD/JPY bulls, despite looming intervention threats. This week also features several Federal Reserve speakers, whose remarks will be closely monitored for any shifts in the central bank’s outlook, particularly in light of recent economic indicators.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD rebounds amid mixed sentiments and central bank speculations
As the week commenced, the US Dollar’s (DXY) bullish trajectory moderated, leading to a slight retreat to the low 104.00s, despite rising US yields. This adjustment in momentum coincided with a renewed interest in riskier assets, providing the Euro with an opportunity to recover from its approach to 1.0800. Despite the Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining interest rates to combat inflation, with an eventual rate cut forecasted for 2025, market sentiment, as indicated by the FedWatch Tool, leans towards expecting three rate cuts within the year, potentially starting in June. This outlook is somewhat countered by Federal Reserve officials’ cautious views on rate adjustments, highlighting a complex landscape of inflation control and economic stimulation. With both the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) on the brink of initiating easing cycles, possibly in parallel, the medium-term forecasts suggest a stronger Dollar. Yet, the EUR/USD pairing shows resilience, hinting at a complex interplay of economic fundamentals, central bank policies, and investor sentiment, possibly leading to significant currency fluctuations soon.
On Monday, the EUR/USD moved higher, able to reach near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving slightly below the middle band, suggesting a potential slight upward movement to reach the lower band. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position at 47, signaling a neutral outlook for this currency pair.
In response to the upcoming high market volatility for TRY Forex during the Turkish election, there will be adjustments for the products on March 28, 2024. Please check the details below:
1. EURTRY and USDTRY leverage will be adjusted from 20:1 to 5:1
2. EURTRY and USDTRY will be set to close only effective on March 28, 2024
Friendly reminders:
1. All product settings stay the same except for the above adjustments.
2. The margin requirement of the trade may be affected by this adjustment. Please make sure the funds in your account are sufficient to hold the position before this adjustment.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
As we approach the end of March 2024, the world’s economic eyes are set on key indicators that are poised to shed light on the health and direction of major economies, including Australia, Canada, and the United States. These indicators, ranging from consumer prices and GDP growth to housing market dynamics and core inflation rates, are critical barometers for financial markets and policy decision-making. Here’s a brief overview of what’s expected in the coming days.
Australia’s Consumer Price Index Holds Steady
On the Australian front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation reflecting the annual price change of goods and services, remained stable at 3.4% in the year to January 2024, mirroring the figure from the previous month. This steadiness suggests a consistent economic environment down under. However, eyes are now on the upcoming CPI release for February 2024, anticipated on 27 March, with analysts forecasting a slight uptick to 3.6%. Such an increase, if realized, could signal mounting inflationary pressures within the Australian economy.
Canada’s Economic Growth: A Subtle Uptick Expected
Moving to Canada, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, showed no growth in December, falling short of the preliminary estimates that had predicted a 0.3% advance. This stagnation has placed increased importance on the upcoming January 2024 GDP figures, expected to be disclosed on 28 March 2024. Analysts remain optimistic, projecting a modest growth of 0.2%, which could mark a turnaround for the Canadian economy if achieved.
U.S. Economic Performance and Housing Market Dynamics
In the United States, the final GDP numbers for Q4 2023 revealed a 3.2% annualized growth rate, slightly below the advance estimate of 3.3% but following a robust 4.9% growth rate in Q3. The focus now shifts to the first quarter of 2024, with the GDP figures due on 28 March 2024. Analysts are aligning their forecasts with the previous quarter’s performance, expecting a 3.2% growth rate.
Simultaneously, the U.S. housing market seems to be experiencing turbulence. January 2024 saw a significant 4.9% drop in pending home sales, marking the largest decline since August 2023. The forecast for February, however, suggests a potential rebound, with a 1.5% increase in pending home sales anticipated when the data is released on 28 March 2024.
Core Inflation in the U.S.: A Close Watch
Lastly, the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, increased by 0.4% from the previous month in January 2024. This uptick was the most significant since February 2023. The upcoming release on 29 March 2024, for February’s figures, is predicted to show a slightly lower growth rate of 0.3%. This slight deceleration could signal easing inflationary pressures, a development likely to be closely scrutinized by policymakers and investors alike.
As we await these economic indicators, their collective outcomes will not only reflect the current state of affairs but also hint at the global economic trajectory for the months ahead.
Insights 
VT 
