Higher gold prices and wider access to non-US markets helped support Canada\u2019s exports amid US tariff pressures. Nominal exports fell by 0.8% year-on-year in 2025, as stronger demand outside the US, especially from the UK, offset weaker US trade flows.<\/p>\n
The rise in non-US exports was linked to a price surge in gold exports and added export capacity from the TMX pipeline, which increased access beyond North America. When adjusted for price changes, total merchandise exports fell by 2% over the year.<\/p>\n
Tariffs had a larger effect on manufacturing-heavy provinces such as Quebec and Ontario. Energy-producing provinces, and some provinces exporting agricultural goods, gained more from growth in markets outside the US.<\/p>\n
Last year, in 2025, we saw how a surge in gold prices and new export routes helped soften the blow from U.S. tariffs on Canada\u2019s trade numbers. Nominal exports only dipped slightly because higher-value gold shipments, especially to the U.K., and increased oil capacity from the new TMX pipeline made up for weaker trade with the U.S. This tells us that Canadian economic performance is highly sensitive to commodity prices and trade diversification.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead, we should pay close attention to derivatives tied to gold. While gold\u2019s surge was a key support in 2025, prices have become more volatile, with gold currently trading around $2,350 an ounce after a recent pullback. Options on gold ETFs could be a way to trade this uncertainty, as central bank interest rate policies are creating choppy conditions in the precious metals market.<\/p>\n
The Canadian dollar is another area of focus, as its value is tied to these same export trends. With the Bank of Canada signaling potential rate cuts ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve and ongoing trade policy uncertainty, the USD\/CAD exchange rate has been testing the 1.37 level. We could consider using options on the currency to hedge against or speculate on further weakness in the loonie, especially if oil prices, now hovering near $82 a barrel for WTI, fail to provide strong support.<\/p>\n
We also see a clear split in the economy that can be played with equity derivatives. The data from 2025 showed manufacturing-heavy provinces were hurt more by tariffs, a trend confirmed by the latest manufacturing PMI which recently registered a contractionary 49.5 reading. A potential strategy is to use options to favour energy sector indexes, which benefit from the TMX pipeline now shipping over 500,000 barrels per day to global markets, while taking a more cautious stance on broad-market Canadian indexes sensitive to manufacturing output.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Higher gold prices and TMX pipeline access boosted non-US exports, offsetting U.S. tariffs despite overall declines.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47627"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47627\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}