WTI crude rose on Monday, moving towards $100. It traded at $99.40, about $3 above the day\u2019s open of $96.46, but below Friday\u2019s close of $99.57. <\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump said the US military would help free vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. He described it as a \u201chumanitarian gesture\u201d towards neutral countries, but provided no further details. <\/p>\n
Iranian authorities said the waterway would remain closed. They said any action in Hormuz would violate the ceasefire and that they would protect the strait with \u201cfull strength\u201d. <\/p>\n
On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to raise supply by 188K barrels per day. The move had little effect on prices, as supplies were still constrained by the Strait of Hormuz being closed.<\/p>\n
We remember well the spike towards $100 in 2025 when the Hormuz situation dominated headlines. That price action was driven by a geopolitical fear premium that has since faded from the market. Today, WTI crude is trading in a more subdued range around $81 per barrel, influenced more by supply and demand fundamentals.<\/p>\n
The memory of that 2025 volatility shock keeps option premiums attractive, with the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) currently sitting near 33. This presents an opportunity for traders to sell volatility, as the market seems to be overpricing the risk of a similar event occurring now. We should consider strategies that benefit from time decay and stable prices.<\/p>\n
Unlike the supply constraints we saw in 2025 when OPEC+ barrels were stuck, the market is now well-supplied. U.S. crude oil production remains at a near-record pace, exceeding 13.3 million barrels per day, providing a substantial buffer against potential disruptions. This strong non-OPEC output is a key reason we believe prices will struggle to break significantly higher.<\/p>\n
Global demand growth, meanwhile, is solid but not spectacular, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day for 2026. This is primarily led by consumption in Asian markets like China and India. This steady, but not explosive, demand picture should provide a floor for prices without triggering a major rally.<\/p>\n
Given this context, we should position for range-bound activity in the coming weeks. Selling out-of-the-money puts and calls, or constructing an iron condor, seems prudent to collect the rich premium available. We see a likely trading channel between $75 on the downside and $88 on the upside for the next month.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI nears $100 as Trump pledges naval help; Iran keeps Hormuz shut, despite OPEC+ output hike.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46511\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}