DJIA futures traded above 49,800, extending a near 1,500-point rebound from about 48,500 and moving towards 50,000. S&P 500 futures stayed above 7,200 after the index closed at a new record, while Nasdaq futures tracked further tech gains and the Dow followed its strongest month since November 2024. <\/p>\n
Iran sent a revised proposal via Pakistani mediators on Thursday evening, according to IRNA, in the first clear diplomatic step in weeks. WTI fell 3% to above $101 a barrel and Brent slipped 2% to above $108 after Brent briefly hit $126 on Thursday; the 60-day War Powers deadline expires on Friday. <\/p>\n
Apple rose more than 3% pre-market after fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue beat forecasts, and current-quarter revenue guidance was above estimates. iPhone revenue missed expectations for the second time in three quarters. <\/p>\n
Trump said tariffs on EU cars and trucks will rise to 25% next week, with no tariff on vehicles made in US plants. Stellantis fell more than 2% and Ferrari slipped nearly 1.5%. <\/p>\n
ISM Manufacturing PMI for April was 52.7 versus 53 expected and 52.7 prior. Employment fell to 46.4 from 48.7 versus 49 expected, Prices Paid rose to 84.6 from 78.3 versus 80 forecast, and New Orders increased to 54.1; next Friday\u2019s NFP is forecast at 73K versus 178K.<\/p>\n
The current market rally, pushing the Dow toward 50,000, is largely built on hopes for a diplomatic solution with Iran. We should consider riding this positive momentum with short-term index call options, but recognize that the good news may be priced in, as crude oil has already pulled back over $20 from its recent highs. This de-risking means any breakdown in talks could cause a violent reversal.<\/p>\n
With the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) suppressed near 14.5 amid the rally, hedging against a downturn is relatively inexpensive. The threat of new European auto tariffs and the stagflationary signals from the latest ISM report are significant risks being overlooked. We believe buying VIX calls or out-of-the-money puts on the SPY for late May expiration is a prudent way to protect gains.<\/p>\n
The announcement of a 25% tariff on European autos creates a clear opportunity for a pairs trade or targeted bearish position. We can use put options on European automotive stocks or related ETFs, which have yet to fully price in a sustained trade conflict. This strategy acts as a specific hedge that is separate from the broader market’s optimism on the Iran situation.<\/p>\n
The April ISM manufacturing data is the most concerning development for the medium term, as the jump in Prices Paid to 84.6 is reminiscent of the inflationary spikes we saw in 2025. This makes the Federal Reserve’s job incredibly difficult, and we have already seen futures markets slash the odds of a summer interest rate cut. This underlying inflation pressure puts a cap on how far this equity rally can run without better economic news.<\/p>\n
All attention now shifts to next week’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, where the consensus forecast of 73K is already weak. The collapse in the ISM Employment index to 46.4 suggests a significant risk of a downside surprise, which could be the catalyst that breaks the market’s current euphoria. We are positioning for this by lightening up on long positions and carrying downside protection through the data release.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Futures rose toward 50,000; oil slid on Iran diplomacy; Apple jumped; Trump tariffs; mixed ISM data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46438"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46438\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46438"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46438"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}