Twilio (TWLO) shares rose as much as 21% on Friday after first-quarter results were released after hours on Thursday. The stock reached $179.48 at the open, its highest level in four years, as Q1 revenue growth came in at 20% year on year.<\/p>\n
The wider US market was also supported by earnings from Apple (AAPL) and reports that Iran sent an updated peace deal to intermediaries in Pakistan. US Oil (WTI) fell 4%, which supported equities.<\/p>\n
For the quarter ended 31 March, Twilio posted adjusted EPS of $1.50 versus a $1.27 consensus estimate. Revenue rose to $1.41 billion, about $70 million above consensus.<\/p>\n
For Q2, the company forecast revenue of $1.425 billion, $35 million above consensus, and adjusted EPS in line with the prior $1.29 consensus. Twilio raised its full-year free cash flow midpoint to $1.09 billion from $1.05 billion.<\/p>\n
Wells Fargo lifted its price target to $200 from $147, while RBC Capital kept an Underperform rating and raised its target to $120 from $100. The monthly chart shows support near $150, and the monthly RSI is approaching 65, below the 70 overbought level.<\/p>\n
Looking back, we remember the significant spike in Twilio’s stock in the spring of 2025 following its impressive first-quarter earnings report. That period was defined by its highest revenue growth in three years and the early excitement around its Voice AI story. The stock surged to a four-year high, riding a wave of analyst upgrades and broad market optimism.<\/p>\n
That bullish momentum carried the stock to Wells Fargo\u2019s $200 price target by the third quarter of 2025, rewarding traders who bought call options. However, the stock has since consolidated and is now trading around $165, a pullback of over 17% from its 2025 peak. This consolidation comes as the market digests a more challenging macroeconomic environment.<\/p>\n
Recent data from Q1 2026 showed revenue growth moderating to a still-healthy 12%, as the company now faces tougher year-over-year comparisons from its stellar 2025 performance. Furthermore, the latest US inflation print came in slightly hotter than expected at 3.1%, renewing concerns about Federal Reserve policy and putting pressure on growth stocks like Twilio. These factors have contributed to the stock’s recent range-bound trading.<\/p>\n
Implied volatility on Twilio options has recently increased to near 45%, up from a low of 35% earlier this year, suggesting the market expects larger price swings ahead of its next earnings call. This makes strategies like selling cash-secured puts at the $150 strike price attractive, as this level represented a significant support area back in 2025 and now offers a healthy premium. The goal here is to either collect income or acquire the stock at a price level that has proven historically strong.<\/p>\n
For those who believe the Voice AI narrative still has room to run, buying call spreads could be a prudent approach. A bull call spread, such as buying the July $170 call and selling the July $185 call, would cap potential gains but significantly reduce the upfront cost in this high-volatility environment. This strategy offers a defined-risk way to bet on a rebound toward last year’s highs.<\/p>\n
We are also watching the price of WTI crude oil, which has climbed back to $85 per barrel, unlike the drop we saw this time last year that provided a tailwind for equities. The current commodity strength is a headwind, acting as a tax on the consumer and businesses. Any sign of easing energy prices could quickly reignite interest in tech growth stories, making near-term call options a compelling tactical play.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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