EUR\/USD held onto Thursday\u2019s gains near 1.1735 in Asian trading on Friday, as the US Dollar stayed weak after suspected Japanese intervention in forex markets. The US Dollar Index traded near its Thursday low around 98.00.<\/p>\n
US preliminary Q1 GDP growth was 2% annualised, below the 2.3% forecast. Markets awaited the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for April at 14:00 GMT, expected at 53.0 versus 52.7 previously.<\/p>\n
The euro traded broadly firm as traders awaited comments from European Central Bank officials after the post-decision quiet period. EUR\/USD remained above the 20-period EMA at 1.1702 and hovered just below the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1745, with RSI near 55.<\/p>\n
Resistance levels were cited at 1.1745, then 1.1825, with further levels at 1.1938 and 1.2082. Support levels were noted at 1.1702 and 1.1666, then 1.1567, with the cycle low near 1.1408.<\/p>\n
The report stated that its technical analysis used an AI tool.<\/p>\n
Looking back at this time in 2025, we saw the EUR\/USD holding firm near 1.1730 on the back of a weaker dollar. Today, the situation is reversed, with the pair trading much lower around 1.0720. The primary difference is the strength in the US Dollar Index, which now trades near 106, compared to the 98 level it held a year ago.<\/p>\n
The economic data tells a similar story of divergence from the past. In 2025, a US Q1 GDP of 2% was seen as a modest disappointment against a 2.3% estimate. This year, the preliminary Q1 2026 data showed a more pronounced slowdown at 1.8%, while the latest April ISM Manufacturing PMI just printed at 49.5, signaling contraction rather than the healthy expansion expected in 2025.<\/p>\n
A year ago, we were waiting for ECB commentary, but now we are witnessing clear policy divergence between central banks. We have seen the European Central Bank signal a more dovish stance and even deliver a rate cut, while the Federal Reserve remains cautious due to inflation. This fundamental gap continues to put downward pressure on the Euro.<\/p>\n
Interestingly, suspected intervention by Japan to support the yen was a factor causing dollar weakness in 2025. We have seen similar reports of intervention in the past week, but its effect on the broader dollar strength has been much more temporary this time around. The market appears more focused on the underlying interest rate differentials.<\/p>\n
Given this context, we believe traders should adjust their strategies for continued euro weakness or range-bound activity at these lower levels. Buying EUR\/USD put options or establishing bear put spreads can offer a defined-risk way to position for a potential slide towards the 1.0600 handle. With central bank policy as the main driver, selling out-of-the-money call options to collect premium could also be an effective strategy if the pair fails to break significant resistance.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD holds near 1.1735 as dollar weakens; traders await US PMI, ECB remarks, key levels watched.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46371\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}