USD\/INR rose to a record near 95.35 at Thursday\u2019s open as the rupee weakened alongside higher oil prices and a firmer US Dollar after the Federal Reserve decision. WTI was up almost 1% at about $107.00, the highest level in over seven weeks. <\/p>\n
The US continued a naval blockade affecting Iranian sea ports after President Donald Trump rejected a proposal linked to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The strait carries almost 20% of global energy supply, and disruptions have added to oil supply pressures. <\/p>\n
The US Dollar extended gains for a third trading day, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying the number of officials supporting a move away from an easing bias has increased. The Dollar Index (DXY) edged up to near 99.10. <\/p>\n
The Fed kept rates at 3.50%\u20133.75% by an 8\u20134 vote. One member dissented for a cut, while three dissented against including an easing bias, and Powell referred to risks and Middle East-related uncertainty. <\/p>\n
Foreign Institutional Investors were net sellers in Indian shares for eight straight sessions, selling Rs. 22,863.50. Technical levels cited include the 20-period EMA at 93.83, RSI near 67, and a potential move towards 96.00.<\/p>\n
The intense pressure on the Indian Rupee has not subsided, with the pair now trading near 97.00 as of late April 2026. We see that the core drivers from late 2025, a strong US Dollar and elevated energy costs, continue to dictate the trend. This environment suggests that long positions in USD\/INR remain the favorable trade for the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve’s position has become even more firm, with the benchmark rate now in the 4.00%-4.25% range following further hikes in the first quarter of 2026. Market pricing, reflected in fed funds futures, now indicates less than a 20% chance of a rate cut before the end of the year. This sustained policy tightness continues to attract capital to the US Dollar, creating a headwind for the Rupee.<\/p>\n
While oil prices have retreated from the highs above $107 seen during the peak of the Iranian blockade in 2025, WTI crude has stabilized around a stubbornly high $95 per barrel. Persistently tight global supply and resilient demand mean energy costs remain a major drain on India’s foreign reserves. As one of the world’s largest oil importers, India’s trade balance remains vulnerable, weighing heavily on the currency.<\/p>\n
Given this backdrop, we believe traders should consider buying USD\/INR call options to gain upside exposure while limiting downside risk. Implied volatility has remained elevated, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty, making strategies like call spreads attractive to reduce the initial premium cost. This approach allows participation in a potential move towards the 98.00-99.00 range.<\/p>\n
The technical picture reinforces this bullish outlook, as the previous target of 96.00 mentioned last year has now become a support level. We can use futures contracts to establish long positions, looking for a sustained break above the recent highs. A prudent strategy would be to place stop-loss orders below the 96.00 mark to manage risk in case of a sharp reversal.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/INR hit record near 95.35 as rupee weakened amid higher oil, stronger dollar post-Fed decision.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46276"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46276\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}