Silver rose 1.5% to about $72.35 in European trading on Thursday, after hitting a three-week low of $70.86 on Wednesday. Price direction remained uncertain after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75% and warned of upside inflation risks.<\/p>\n
Jerome Powell said the Fed remained attentive to risks on both sides of its mandate and that the energy surge had not yet peaked. Three rate-setting members supported moving away from an easing bias, citing higher energy prices and de-anchored inflation expectations.<\/p>\n
Expectations for a rate cut this year weakened after the decision. CME FedWatch showed the odds of one cut falling to 3.3% from 18.4% on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Oil rose after comments from US President Donald Trump that Washington\u2019s naval blockade on Iran would extend further. Higher oil prices can lift inflation expectations and make it less likely that central banks ease policy.<\/p>\n
Silver was still below the 20-day EMA near $75.43, with the RSI around 41. Resistance stood near $75.43, with $80 above, while further downside could target the April 7 low of $68.28.<\/p>\n
We are in a very different environment than what we saw in 2025 when the Federal Reserve was holding firm against inflation. Now, with the latest headline CPI moderating to 3.4%, the conversation has shifted towards the timing of the first rate cut. This change in tone is a key factor for silver’s recent performance.<\/p>\n
Given the current uncertainty around the Fed’s first move, implied volatility in silver options has become more pronounced, especially compared to last year’s bearish sentiment. Traders might consider using options strategies that benefit from this environment to manage risk around core positions. This allows for participation in further upside while defining a clear risk profile.<\/p>\n
The fundamental picture has also strengthened considerably since the geopolitical jitters of 2025. Industrial demand is now projected by The Silver Institute to reach a record 1.2 billion ounces this year, driven largely by investment in the solar and electronics sectors. This robust demand creates a strong underlying price floor that was less certain when we were focused solely on the Fed’s hawkish stance.<\/p>\n
Looking at market positioning, we see that managed money has built a significant net long position in silver futures, a stark contrast to the more cautious stance seen in 2025. From a technical standpoint, the levels that were resistance last year, such as the $75.43 area, are now being tested as key support. A sustained hold above this level would signal strong conviction from buyers.<\/p>\n
The CME FedWatch tool now shows a greater than 65% probability of at least one rate cut by the end of the third quarter, a world away from the 3.3% odds we saw this time last year. Traders should therefore watch for dips toward key support levels as potential buying opportunities. The strategy for the coming weeks appears to be buying into weakness rather than selling into rallies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Silver rebounds after three-week low as Fed holds rates, oil rises, rate-cut expectations fade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46268"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46268\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}