USD\/CHF rose about 0.15% on Monday, trading near 0.7854 as the US Dollar rebounded from daily lows during the North American session. The pair is compressing near resistance and is close to the 100-day SMA at 0.7860.<\/p>\n
The daily chart is neutral to downward-biased, while the RSI remains bearish but is nearing the neutral line. A move above 0.7860 would bring the 20-day SMA at 0.7881 into view, then 0.7900 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7931.<\/p>\n
If the pair drops below the 50-day SMA at 0.7843, it may move towards 0.7800. Further downside levels include the 10 March daily low at 0.7747 and the 0.7700 area.<\/p>\n
The Swiss Franc is Switzerland\u2019s currency and is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, with volumes that exceed the size of the Swiss economy. From 2011 to 2015, CHF was pegged to the euro; after the peg ended, CHF rose by more than 20%.<\/p>\n
The Swiss National Bank meets four times a year and targets inflation below 2%. CHF often tracks the euro closely, with some models placing EUR\u2013CHF correlation at more than 90%.<\/p>\n
Looking back to early 2025, we saw the USD\/CHF pair compressing near the 0.7860 level, coiling around its 100-day moving average. The market was at a key inflection point, with momentum indicators suggesting a potential shift in favor of the US dollar. That setup was a precursor to a significant move that has since unfolded.<\/p>\n
Today, the situation has evolved considerably, with the interest rate differential between the US Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank becoming a dominant driver. With the pair now trading around 0.9150, the bullish break we watched for last year has clearly materialized and extended. This trend has been fueled by the SNB’s proactive rate cuts to combat a strengthening franc and low domestic inflation.<\/p>\n
Recent data reinforces this divergence, making a compelling case for continued dollar strength. US core inflation is proving sticky at 2.8%, keeping the Federal Reserve cautious, while Swiss inflation sits at just 1.4%, giving the SNB room for further easing. This fundamental gap suggests the path of least resistance for USD\/CHF remains upward in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this environment favors strategies that profit from a continued grind higher. We should consider buying call options with strike prices targeting the 0.9250 level to capture potential upside with defined risk. Alternatively, bull call spreads could be used to lower the upfront cost of entry while still capitalizing on a move toward that target.<\/p>\n
However, we must remain aware of the Swiss Franc’s safe-haven status, which acts as a constant background risk. Any unexpected flare-up in geopolitical tensions or a sudden downturn in global risk appetite could trigger a rapid flight to safety, strengthening the CHF. Traders should hedge long positions with protective puts or maintain clear stop-loss levels to manage this possibility.<\/p>\n
The high correlation between the Euro and the Swiss Franc also remains a key factor to monitor. With the European Central Bank signaling a potential rate cut at its next meeting, further weakness in the Euro could weigh on the Franc. This would provide an additional tailwind for our long USD\/CHF positions, reinforcing the current bullish outlook.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CHF gained 0.15% near 0.7854, testing 100-day SMA resistance; breakouts or drops signal key levels ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46003\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}