{"id":45845,"date":"2026-04-24T20:20:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T20:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/45845\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T20:20:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T20:20:00","slug":"holidays-are-up-in-the-air-airline-stocks-in-holding-pattern","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/opinion\/45845\/","title":{"rendered":"Holidays are Up in the Air: Airline Stocks in Holding Pattern"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The jet fuel supply and summer wanderlust gap speaks volumes in the market.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The summer travel season is supposed to be when airlines print money. Passengers book months ahead, planes fly full, and fares climb. But this year, an uncomfortable gap has opened between what airlines are reporting and what’s happening at the gate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The one thing that changed everything<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, triggering what’s being called the aviation industry’s biggest shock since COVID-19. Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the conflict erupted, leaving carriers squeezed between spiralling costs and tickets sold months in advance at prices they can no longer adjust.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fuel typically accounts for around a quarter of airline operating expenses. Double it, and the business model starts to buckle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jet fuel in the U.S. was at $3.51 a gallon this week \u2014 down from a peak of $4.78 on April 2<\/a>, but still far above the $2.39 it sat at on February 27, the day before the first strikes on Iran. Full price analysis can be monitored on IATA<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Q1 looks better than it is<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Here’s the puzzle. Despite all of that, most major U.S. airlines just posted revenue growth. So what’s going on?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The short answer: Q1 is a delayed snapshot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Airlines sell most seats weeks or months ahead. The fares locked in for January through March were priced before February 28 and stayed resilient. The fuel shock arrived mid-quarter, but the revenue to absorb it had already been set.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think of it like a restaurant that locked in ingredient prices before a supply crisis hit. The first week’s menu looks fine. It’s the reprinting of next month’s menu that tells the real story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Q1 results show a business that hadn’t yet felt the full weight of what hit it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Airline<\/td>Q1 revenue<\/td>Full-year EPS guidance<\/td>Outlook<\/td><\/tr>
United (UAL)<\/td>Beat expectations at $14.6 billion<\/td>Cut to $7\u2013$11 (from $12\u2013$14)<\/td>Most resilient<\/td><\/tr>
Southwest (LUV)<\/td>$7.2B \u2014 record<\/td>Held at $4<\/td>Stable, domestic-heavy<\/td><\/tr>
American (AALG)<\/td>$13.91B \u2014 record<\/td>Lower end now a loss<\/td>Most exposed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Reading the numbers: a quick primer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Two figures are appearing in airline earnings coverage right now. Here’s what they actually mean:<\/p>\n\n\n\n