EUR\/USD pared losses on Friday despite a risk-off tone linked to uncertainty in the Middle East. It traded above 1.1700 after rebounding from a two-week low at 1.1670 and was set for a near 0.4% weekly fall.<\/p>\n
The ceasefire remained in place, but US-Iran tensions continued to rise. Trump urged Iran to sign a deal, Israel said it was awaiting a \u201cUS green light\u201d to resume strikes, and Tehran warned it would hit Gulf oilfields if energy sites are targeted.<\/p>\n
Eurozone data was weak. Germany\u2019s IFO Business Climate index fell to 84.4 in April, the lowest since October 2022, while French consumer confidence also declined.<\/p>\n
In the US, attention was on a briefing by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine at 08:00 (12:00 GMT). In Europe, focus turned to the ECB meeting next Thursday, with rates expected to stay on hold.<\/p>\n
Technically, EUR\/USD held support between 1.1645 and 1.1670, with resistance near 1.1720 and a key level at 1.1740. The 14-period RSI on the 4-hour chart stayed below 50 and MACD was slightly negative, while lower targets sat at 1.1505 to 1.1525.<\/p>\n
Given the escalating conflict in the Middle East, we see a classic flight to safety benefiting the US Dollar. The recent surge in Brent crude oil, now pushing past $95 a barrel for the first time since late 2024, is amplifying recessionary fears in Europe. This situation mirrors the energy crisis we saw in 2022, which heavily weighed on the Eurozone economy.<\/p>\n
The weak German IFO data, hitting a low of 84.4, complicates next week’s European Central Bank meeting. While the market is pricing in a hawkish stance, these poor economic figures give the ECB a reason to delay any rate hikes. We remember how the EUR\/USD pair broke below parity in 2022 when the ECB was perceived as being behind the curve on inflation and growth.<\/p>\n
For the coming weeks, we should consider buying EUR\/USD put options to hedge against a dovish ECB surprise or a further escalation in Iran. Targeting strikes below the critical 1.1645 support level seems prudent, as a break could trigger a swift move toward the 1.1525 area. The cost of options is rising, but it provides defined risk in a highly uncertain environment.<\/p>\n
The general market anxiety is also reflected in the VIX, which has climbed over 22, indicating significant fear among investors. This suggests that broad market volatility is expected to increase, not just in currencies. Therefore, strategies that profit from a large price move, such as a long straddle on the EUR\/USD ahead of the ECB announcement, could be effective.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD rebounded above 1.1700 amid Middle East risks and weak Eurozone data, eyes ECB, key levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45821"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45821\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}