EUR\/USD stayed weak in Friday\u2019s Asian session, trading around 1.1680\u20131.1675, just above a nearly two-week low set on Thursday. The pair remained under pressure after a three-day rise in the US Dollar.<\/p>\n
A temporary ceasefire extension did not lead to progress in peace talks, with a US naval blockade of Iranian ports weighing on risk sentiment. Higher crude oil prices also raised inflation worries and supported expectations of a more restrictive US Federal Reserve stance, helping the Dollar.<\/p>\n
On the 4-hour chart, price hovered near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average, leaving the near-term tone neutral after the latest drop. However, Thursday\u2019s move below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from the March swing low favoured sellers, while the RSI near 32 pointed to ongoing downside pressure.<\/p>\n
The MACD remained slightly negative, suggesting limited bullish momentum despite the EMA area. Support levels were cited at the 50.0% retracement at 1.1648, then 1.1600 and 1.1532, ahead of 1.1445.<\/p>\n
Resistance was seen at 1.1696 (38.2%), then 1.1755 (23.6%). The technical analysis section was produced with help from an AI tool.<\/p>\n
The current weakness in EUR\/USD, now trading near 1.0550, is being driven by familiar pressures. Renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are reviving inflationary concerns, strengthening the US dollar as the market anticipates a more aggressive Federal Reserve. The fundamental picture is creating a significant headwind for the euro.<\/p>\n
We have seen Q1 2026 core CPI stubbornly hold at an annualized 3.1%, pushing futures markets to price in a nearly 75% probability of a Fed rate hike by July. This contrasts sharply with the European Central Bank, which is signaling a longer pause, widening the policy divergence between the two central banks. This gap in interest rate expectations is the primary force weighing on the pair.<\/p>\n
Looking back from 2025, we saw a similar dynamic unfold in late 2021 when the pair broke down from the 1.1600s amid rising inflation and a hawkish Fed. That period, along with the slide below parity in 2022, taught us that these fundamental trends can exert sustained pressure. The historical precedent suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.<\/p>\n
For the coming weeks, buying EUR\/USD put options provides a straightforward strategy to capitalize on expected weakness. A break below the 1.0500 support level could open the door for a test of the 1.0400 handle. Traders could also consider bear put spreads to define risk and reduce the initial premium outlay.<\/p>\n
Any unexpected de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or a surprisingly soft US inflation report could trigger a short-term relief rally. We should watch the 1.0650 area as the first major resistance level on any bounce. However, the underlying trend suggests that any meaningful recovery is likely to be met with fresh selling pressure.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD weak near 1.1680 as dollar rises; Iran tensions, oil-driven inflation fears and bearish technicals pressure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45787"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45787\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}