The International Energy Agency warned of the biggest energy security threat in history, linking it to supply disruption from the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iran talks were described as stalled, with the strait mostly shut.<\/p>\n
Vessel traffic through Hormuz fell to two from three the previous day, alongside reports of Iranian gunboats firing on commercial ships. The US intercepted two oil tankers and escorted a third in the Indian Ocean, while Reuters reported three more interceptions in Asian waters near Sri Lanka and Malaysia.<\/p>\n
Market moves included rising gasoline and diesel crack spreads and increased Brent put activity for June and July. June\u2013July backwardation reached $6.50 overnight.<\/p>\n
Around 13 million barrels per day of oil supply were reported lost, with the route under a double blockade. The strait previously carried average flows of 20 million barrels daily.<\/p>\n
The disruption was expected to weigh on global growth, raise inflation, and increase the risk of fuel shortages, with Europe facing possible jet fuel constraints within weeks. Emergency stock releases were described as temporary support, with reopening the strait presented as necessary and diversification and demand reduction listed as options if shortages continue.<\/p>\n
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the primary driver for energy markets as of April 23, 2026. With Brent crude futures holding firm above $135 this morning, the severe supply shock is being fully priced in by the market. The extreme backwardation between the June and July contracts, which we’ve seen widen past $6.50, signals a desperate scramble for immediate barrels.<\/p>\n
We believe traders should focus on strategies that benefit from sustained high prices and tight physical supply. This includes buying front-month Brent or WTI call options to capture further upside from any escalation in the conflict. Looking back at the market of 2022, the backwardation spreads we see now are nearly double what they were during the peak of the post-Ukraine invasion panic, suggesting a more severe setup for calendar spread trades.<\/p>\n
The surge in crack spreads for gasoline and diesel, now exceeding $60 a barrel according to the latest figures, points to extreme refiner profitability. This makes long positions in RBOB gasoline and ULSD heating oil futures attractive, potentially even more so than crude itself. We are seeing a significant risk of fuel shortages, particularly for jet fuel in Europe, which could push those specific product prices even higher.<\/p>\n
The pronounced rise in options activity reflects deep uncertainty about the conflict’s duration, with implied volatility on near-term Brent options jumping over 85%. While the primary trend is bullish, the noted increase in put buying for June and July suggests some players are also hedging against a sudden diplomatic breakthrough that could cause prices to collapse. This makes strategies that profit from large price swings, in either direction, worthy of consideration.<\/p>\n
We must remember that emergency stock releases are only a temporary fix for a loss of 13 million barrels per day. The latest weekly data confirms the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has already fallen by another 12 million barrels, reaching its lowest level since 1983. This limited buffer means any extension of the blockade into the summer driving season will magnify the supply crisis significantly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
IEA warns historic energy security threat as Iran conflict disrupts Hormuz, cutting flows, spiking spreads, risking shortages.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45712","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45712"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45712\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45712"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45712"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45712"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}