Rabobank strategist Michael Every said conflict linked to Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could extend the energy normalisation timeline into Q4. He said clearing possible mines could take from weeks to months, depending on how many are present.<\/p>\n
The report said Iran fired on ships in the Strait and seized two. It also said there were suspicions that speedboats were used to lay mines more widely in the waterway.<\/p>\n
It said marine drones used for mine clearance are relatively untested compared with older methods. Based on past benchmarks, the estimate remains weeks to months to clear the Strait.<\/p>\n
The report said oil and natural gas futures were materially under-pricing supply risk. It linked this to potential effects on prices into Q4.<\/p>\n
It also said the Iran war pushed Panama Canal lane prices to a record high of up to five times the pre-war level. It said this was mainly due to Asian LNG importers bidding for access.<\/p>\n
We are seeing escalating actions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 21 million barrels of oil pass daily. Recent intelligence reports this month have confirmed the presence of new marine drones and potential mines, which could take months to clear if deployed widely. This creates a direct and immediate threat to a significant portion of the world’s energy supply.<\/p>\n
Futures markets seem to be overlooking the severity of this supply risk for both crude oil and natural gas. With Brent crude hovering around $95 per barrel, implied volatility remains surprisingly low, suggesting traders are not pricing in a major disruption. Looking back at 2019, we saw how a drone attack on Saudi facilities caused a nearly 20% intraday price spike, highlighting how quickly the market can react when it is caught off guard.<\/p>\n
This tension is already creating global ripples, with Asian LNG importers driving up Panama Canal transit prices to record highs to secure passage. This scramble for LNG is happening as European natural gas storage sits at 55%, slightly below the five-year average and leaving little cushion for a supply shock from the Middle East. Any disruption in Hormuz would put extreme pressure on an already tight global gas market.<\/p>\n
Given these conditions, traders should consider positioning for a sharp rise in energy prices in the coming weeks. Buying longer-dated call options on Brent crude and Henry Hub natural gas futures for Q3 and Q4 2026 could be a prudent strategy. This allows for participation in a potential price surge while capping the maximum loss at the premium paid.<\/p>\n
The current market complacency suggests that options are not fully pricing in the potential for a sudden supply shock. This makes buying volatility an attractive proposition. The key is to act before the broader market wakes up to the timeline for energy normalization being pushed well into the end of the year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Iran-linked Hormuz disruption risks delaying energy normalisation into Q4, with mine clearance taking weeks to months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45701\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}