The US Dollar Index (DXY) held near 98.60 as markets stayed cautious due to the US-Iran situation. A ceasefire extension was followed by Iran seizing two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, supporting demand for the US Dollar.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc in daily performance. Trading conditions stayed defensive as risks around shipping and energy remained in focus.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD moved lower towards 1.1710 as risk appetite weakened in Europe. Regional equities fell again, while higher oil prices raised inflation concerns in the Eurozone.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD traded around 1.3500 after UK annual CPI rose to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February. Services inflation increased to 4.5%, affecting expectations for Bank of England policy.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY held near 159.50 as US Treasury yields eased. The Yen showed safe-haven support, which limited gains in the pair.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD edged up near 0.7160 but remained sensitive to risk swings. WTI oil rose above $93.10 per barrel, while gold moved up towards $4,735 per troy ounce.<\/p>\n
Forthcoming data includes Eurozone and UK PMIs, US jobless claims, US new home sales, Japan inflation, UK retail sales, Germany IFO, Canada retail sales, and US Michigan data and inflation expectations.<\/p>\n
We are seeing a much different market compared to this time last year. In April 2025, the seizure of ships in the Strait of Hormuz drove a strong defensive mood and a flight to the US Dollar. Today, geopolitical tensions in the region have eased, with recent OPEC+ reports confirming stable production quotas and uninterrupted shipping flows through the strait.<\/p>\n
This has shifted the drivers for the US Dollar, which was trading near 98.60 on the DXY during the 2025 crisis. The dollar’s strength now comes less from pure safe-haven demand and more from persistent inflation, with the latest Q1 2026 GDP figures showing a slowdown that complicates the Fed’s policy path. Consequently, the DXY is currently holding firm above the 106 level, reflecting a different kind of resilience based on interest rate differentials.<\/p>\n
The significant surge in WTI crude to over $93 per barrel we saw in April 2025 is a key memory, which at the time amplified inflation concerns globally. In contrast, oil prices have stabilized, with WTI currently trading closer to $85, partly due to increased US shale output reported by the EIA this month. This relative calm in energy markets suggests that call options on oil may be overpriced if they are based on last year’s volatility.<\/p>\n
This changes how we should approach European currencies, particularly as options expirations approach. Last year, the EUR\/USD was sliding toward 1.1710 under broad risk aversion, whereas today its weakness below 1.07 is more about the ECB’s dovish stance compared to the Federal Reserve. The Pound, which was trading near 1.3500, has found more solid footing after the Bank of England\u2019s rate hikes successfully brought the core inflation we saw in early 2025 down to a more manageable 2.8%.<\/p>\n
We must also reconsider our safe-haven strategies based on this new environment. Last year’s crisis saw USD\/JPY hold near 159.50, but we are now seeing a gradual strengthening of the Yen as the Bank of Japan signals a slow move away from its ultra-loose policy. Gold, which rallied to $4,735 an ounce on the back of 2025’s uncertainty and falling yields, has since consolidated as geopolitical risks have been repriced and yields have firmed up.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY held near 98.60 amid US-Iran tensions; currencies reacted to risk, oil, inflation, key data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45647"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45647\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}