Gold trimmed earlier gains on Wednesday as caution persisted over the US-Iran conflict, even after President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire shortly before it was due to expire. XAU\/USD traded near $4,735, above a one-week low of $4,668 set on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Iranian leaders rejected negotiations \u201cunder the shadow of threats\u201d and did not attend a second round of talks expected in Pakistan. Trump said Pakistan\u2019s leadership requested the extension to give Iran time to present a unified proposal.<\/p>\n
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, with Trump ordering the military to continue it until a proposal is submitted and talks conclude. The New York Post reported talks could take place as soon as Friday, while Tasnim said Tehran has not decided on that date.<\/p>\n
Gold\u2019s recovery was limited as expectations for higher US interest rates persisted, and the metal is down nearly 10% since the war began. Oil prices stayed elevated as supply through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely restricted.<\/p>\n
US data showed Retail Sales up 1.7% month-on-month in March after 0.7% in February, while CPI rose 0.9% month-on-month from 0.3%. On charts, gold held above the 100-day SMA at $4,731 and the 200-day SMA at $4,236, but stayed below the 50-day SMA at $4,882; RSI was 48 and MACD was positive.<\/p>\n
Looking back at the US-Iran conflict in 2025, we saw gold become highly sensitive to both geopolitical headlines and oil prices. The fragile ceasefire and lingering naval blockade created a choppy environment, a pattern that continues to influence the market today. This history suggests that any news from the Middle East can cause sharp, unpredictable moves.<\/p>\n
In the coming weeks, we should consider that lingering tensions can cause sudden spikes in volatility. Recent disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea show how quickly these old conflicts can re-emerge, making outright directional bets risky. Therefore, using options to define risk, such as buying a straddle to play a big move in either direction, seems prudent.<\/p>\n
The “higher-for-longer” rate environment that capped gold last year remains a central theme, even as we are now in April 2026. The latest March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation is still persistent at 3.5%, causing the market to price out several anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. This monetary pressure creates a significant headwind against geopolitical safe-haven bids for gold.<\/p>\n
Given this conflict between bullish geopolitical risk and bearish monetary policy, traders should look at volatility itself as an asset. Implied volatility on gold options has been creeping up, suggesting the market is bracing for a significant price swing. We can structure trades that profit from this uncertainty, rather than trying to guess the correct direction.<\/p>\n
Technically, the levels we watched in 2025 are still relevant psychological barriers, with the old resistance near $4,882 now acting as a key support pivot. A derivative strategy could involve buying call options with a strike price above the $5,000 mark to capture a potential breakout. Conversely, buying puts below the $4,882 support level could hedge against a failure to hold and a return to last year’s consolidation range.<\/p>\n
The price of oil remains a critical factor, as it was during the naval blockade in 2025. Recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data has shown surprise drawdowns in crude inventories, keeping oil prices firm and feeding into the very inflation concerns that keep the Fed on hold. This dynamic continues to complicate gold’s role, making it trade less like a pure safe haven and more like a high-beta asset tied to energy markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Gold pared gains amid US-Iran tensions despite ceasefire extension; higher-rate expectations limited recovery as talks remain uncertain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45631"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45631\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}