The New York Post reported on Wednesday, citing US President Donald Trump and Pakistani sources, that a second round of US-Iran talks could take place as soon as Friday.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s Tasnim news agency said Iran has not yet decided whether it will attend the talks. Fox News reported that a White House official said President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran for 3\u20135 days.<\/p>\n
At the time of reporting, the US Dollar Index was almost unchanged on the day at about 98.40. The report said the developments did not appear to be affecting market mood.<\/p>\n
With reports of a potential ceasefire and renewed talks between the US and Iran, we are reminded of the playbook from the late 2010s. The initial market reaction seems quiet, but this quiet often precedes a significant move in energy markets. Derivative traders should be preparing for a potential drop in the geopolitical risk premium that has been building up.<\/p>\n
The most direct impact will be on crude oil prices, where implied volatility has been creeping higher. We remember back in early 2020 when similar tensions caused the oil volatility index (OVX) to spike over 30% before collapsing as the immediate threat faded. This suggests that selling out-of-the-money call options on Brent or WTI futures could be a prudent way to collect premium, anticipating that successful talks will calm the market.<\/p>\n
For those looking for a clearer directional play, buying long-dated put options on crude oil offers a hedge against a peace dividend. Historically, geopolitical price spikes in oil are sharp but often short-lived, as we saw after the attacks on Saudi facilities in 2019 when prices retraced most of their 20% jump within weeks. A confirmed dialogue could easily push Brent crude back toward the lower end of its recent trading range.<\/p>\n
We should also monitor safe-haven currencies, which have not reacted yet. The US dollar and Swiss franc typically strengthen when Middle East tensions escalate. Any sign of talks faltering could present an opportunity to buy call options on the USD Index (DXY) as a broader macro hedge against a risk-off scenario.<\/p>\n
This pattern is consistent with what we observed last year in 2025, when a minor disruption in the Strait of Hormuz caused a brief 8% rally in oil that fully reversed within ten trading days. Given that over 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through that chokepoint, any easing of military posture has an outsized dovish effect on prices. We should therefore be positioned for a decline in oil prices and volatility if this Friday’s talks materialize.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
New York Post says US-Iran talks may resume Friday; Iran undecided as markets, dollar remain steady overall.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45618"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45618\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}