Societe Generale\u2019s Kit Juckes expects EUR\/USD to stay within a range as geopolitical risk and uncertainty in US policy counter economic drivers. He says risk aversion may keep FX volatility low and keep G10 currency pairs in tight trading bands.<\/p>\n
He points to two-year rate differentials as implying EUR\/USD near 1.14, with a move towards 1.17 over the next year if consensus rate forecasts are correct. He also cites consensus GDP forecasts as indicating that 1.14 fits expected growth.<\/p>\n
He links the prospect of a weaker US Dollar to President Trump\u2019s stated preference for a weaker dollar and lower interest rates. He adds that episodes of reduced concern about escalation have tended to coincide with a weaker Dollar, and he expects EUR\/USD to return to 1.20 in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
The article notes it was produced using an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.<\/p>\n
We see EUR\/USD caught between conflicting forces, keeping it range-bound. Economic fundamentals, like interest rate differentials, suggest the pair should be closer to 1.14. However, ongoing US policy uncertainty is preventing the dollar from fully capitalizing on its strength.<\/p>\n
The data supports a stronger dollar, which would mean a lower EUR\/USD. Recent US inflation figures from March 2026 came in stubbornly high at 3.1%, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path. In contrast, the Eurozone’s Q1 2026 GDP growth was a sluggish 0.2%, giving the European Central Bank reason to remain accommodative and creating a wide policy divergence.<\/p>\n
However, the current US administration’s consistent calls for a weaker dollar are creating a ceiling for the currency. This political pressure to boost exports is the main factor supporting EUR\/USD and fueling speculation of a return to the 1.20 level. This is why, despite strong US economic data, the dollar has failed to make significant gains in recent weeks.<\/p>\n
For traders, this environment points to range-trading strategies while volatility remains low. The Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index is currently trading near its lowest levels since before the 2025 market adjustments, making it attractive to sell options. Establishing positions that profit from the pair staying within the 1.1400 to 1.1750 range could be a primary strategy.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the low cost of options makes it prudent to prepare for a breakout. Any sign of de-escalation in global geopolitical tensions or a more forceful policy push from Washington could cause a sharp dollar decline. Buying cheap, out-of-the-money call options on EUR\/USD would provide upside exposure for a move towards 1.20.<\/p>\n
We saw a similar dynamic in the second half of 2025, when a hawkish Fed was consistently undermined by political commentary, leading to sharp but short-lived currency reversals. This historical precedent suggests that while the economic case is clear, the political wildcard remains the dominant factor. Therefore, any rallies in the dollar should be viewed with caution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Societe Generale\u2019s Kit Juckes sees EUR\/USD range-bound near 1.14, with potential rise toward 1.20 soon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45609"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45609\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}