Brent has moved down from recent highs after President Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely. Oil prices remain on an uncertain route towards normalisation, including any steps linked to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Brent has faced resistance near $120 and has pulled back after meeting this level more than once. It also rose above $100\/b intraday before retreating.<\/p>\n
Tehran has indicated there are signs the US may lift a naval blockade, which is set as a condition for joining the next round of talks in Pakistan. The US is expected to pause further strikes until Iran submits a new proposal and discussions conclude.<\/p>\n
On technical levels, the April high near $104 is a near-term barrier. A move above $104 would support the case for a broader rebound.<\/p>\n
Brent has tested the 50-day moving average (50\u2011DMA) for the first time since January, and a short period of consolidation is possible. If Brent fails to hold the 50\u2011DMA area around $91\/90, it may point to a deeper decline.<\/p>\n
We are seeing Brent crude in a pullback phase after the indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire eased immediate supply fears. This has brought the price down to test a critical support level for the first time since January. The market is now watching the 50-day moving average around $91\/$90 very closely as this will dictate the next major move.<\/p>\n
If we fail to hold this support zone, a deeper decline is likely, and traders should be prepared. Buying put options with strike prices around $85 or $80 could offer downside protection or speculative gains. The latest EIA report showing a surprise build in US crude inventories of 2.1 million barrels adds weight to this potential move lower.<\/p>\n
Conversely, if the $90 support level holds, we could see a rebound towards the recent April high near $104. A decisive break above that level would signal a broader recovery, making call options or bull call spreads attractive strategies. This path remains highly dependent on any concrete news about the US lifting its naval blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Given the high level of geopolitical uncertainty, we expect volatility to remain elevated regardless of the next price direction. With the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) still high at 45, strategies that profit from large price swings, such as long straddles, could be effective. This allows traders to benefit from a significant move whether it’s up or down.<\/p>\n
We have seen similar patterns in the past, such as the periods of consolidation following major geopolitical shocks in 2022. Those phases often ended with sharp, decisive breakouts once the market absorbed the new information. Therefore, being positioned for a significant move in the coming weeks is more important than betting on a specific direction right now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent slips from highs after Trump extends Iran ceasefire; Hormuz reopening uncertain; $104 key, 50\u2011DMA support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45598\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}