Gold fell by more than 2% on Tuesday as there was no confirmation of a second round of US\u2013Iran talks in Pakistan. XAU\/USD traded at $4,720 after reaching a daily high of $4,833.<\/p>\n
A White House official said the US delegation, led by Vice President Vance, Steve Wytkoff and Jared Kushner, remained in Washington. Iran\u2019s Foreign Ministry spokesperson told Fars there was no final decision on joining talks with Washington.<\/p>\n
US Retail Sales rose 1.7% in March, above expectations, following 0.7%, while annual growth stayed at 4%. The ADP four-week average increased to 54.8K from 39K.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar Index rose 0.43% to 98.47 and touched 98.57, a six-day high. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.305%, up by nearly five basis points.<\/p>\n
WTI crude gained more than 5.50% to $90.77 per barrel, with prices supported by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. US jobless claims and S&P Global Flash PMIs for April are due on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Gold failed to clear the 50-day SMA at $4,889 and broke below the 100-day SMA at $4,712, putting focus on $4,700. RSI turned bearish, with levels to watch at the 20-day SMA of $4,679, the 2 April low of $4,555, and resistance near $4,750 and $4,800.<\/p>\n
The sharp drop in gold below $4,750 signals a shift in sentiment, driven by a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields. We’re seeing robust US retail sales, reminiscent of the persistent inflation figures that marked late 2025, giving the Federal Reserve less reason to consider easing policy. This environment suggests considering bearish strategies, such as buying put options on gold futures.<\/p>\n
With US-Iran talks stalling and the Strait of Hormuz remaining a chokepoint, oil prices are likely to stay high. Historically, such geopolitical flare-ups have a direct impact, as roughly 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption moves through the strait. We see this as a reason to look at long positions in WTI crude oil, possibly through call options to capitalize on further price spikes.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar Index recovering to over 98.40 is a key development, fueled by Treasury yields now pushing above 4.3%. The hawkish tone from the Fed Chair nominee suggests a pivot away from the more dovish forward guidance we saw for much of last year. This strengthens the case for a stronger dollar in the coming weeks against other major currencies.<\/p>\n
We are watching the $4,700 level in gold very closely, as a sustained break below the 100-day moving average could trigger further selling toward the April lows. The bearish turn in the Relative Strength Index supports the idea of selling rallies or establishing short positions. Given the geopolitical uncertainty, implied volatility has been creeping up, making strategies with defined risk attractive.<\/p>\n
All eyes will be on this Thursday’s jobless claims and flash PMI numbers for further direction. Another set of strong figures would reinforce the narrative of a resilient US economy. This would likely push Treasury yields even higher and delay any market expectations for a Fed rate cut, putting more downward pressure on gold.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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