USD\/CHF trades about 0.25% higher near 0.7800 in Tuesday\u2019s European session. The move comes as the US Dollar rises before Kevin Warsh\u2019s confirmation hearing as the next Federal Reserve chair at 14:00 GMT.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar Index is up 0.25% at about 98.30. Markets are watching Warsh\u2019s testimony for guidance on the Fed\u2019s policy direction.<\/p>\n
US Retail Sales for March are due at 12:30 GMT. The release is forecast at 1.4% month-on-month, up from 0.6% in February.<\/p>\n
A Wall Street Journal report says Iran has agreed to another round of peace talks with the US. There has been no official confirmation.<\/p>\n
Despite the rise, the near-term technical tone remains bearish below the 20-day EMA at 0.7866 and the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 0.7826. The 14-period RSI is near 41.<\/p>\n
Support levels are 0.7775, then 0.7701 and 0.7608. Resistance levels are 0.7826, 0.7866, 0.7878, then 0.7941 and 0.8044.<\/p>\n
We see the USD\/CHF trading with a firm tone around 0.9150, a significant shift from the levels we were accustomed to through much of 2025. The US Dollar’s strength is broad, with the Dollar Index (DXY) currently holding steady above 106.00. This strength is creating a clear upward bias for the currency pair in the near term.<\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve’s commentary is the primary driver behind this dollar rally. Any hopes for near-term rate cuts that we held at the end of last year have diminished, as recent inflation numbers have proven sticky. Fed officials are now emphasizing a “higher-for-longer” interest rate policy, which continues to attract capital toward the dollar.<\/p>\n
This hawkish stance is supported by recent economic figures that point to a resilient US economy. For example, the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report for March 2026 showed the addition of 295,000 jobs, comfortably beating expectations and signaling a tight labor market. This robust data makes it difficult for the Fed to justify easing monetary policy anytime soon.<\/p>\n
Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly surrounding ongoing trade negotiations with China and tensions in the Middle East, is also playing a role. Unlike the periods of relative calm we saw in 2025, the current environment is prompting a flight to safety. This market sentiment generally benefits the US Dollar as a primary safe-haven currency.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this suggests a strategy of positioning for continued, but perhaps volatile, upward movement. With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) now approaching overbought territory near 70, buying call options with strikes around 0.9250 could capture further upside while limiting risk. Alternatively, selling out-of-the-money put options can generate income by taking the view that significant downside is unlikely in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
Key levels to watch are the immediate resistance at the 0.9200 mark, a level that has capped gains previously. A sustained break above this could open the path toward the 0.9280 highs we saw earlier in the year. On the downside, solid support appears to be forming near the 20-day moving average at 0.9060.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF rises to 0.7800 as dollar firms pre-Warsh hearing; retail sales awaited; bearish tone persists.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45483"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45483\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}