EUR\/USD rose about 0.20% on Monday, lifting from near 1.1730 to around 1.1790 in the European session. It stayed within Friday\u2019s range after swinging from above 1.1840 to below 1.1780. <\/p>\n
A two-week US-Iran ceasefire is due to expire on Tuesday evening, with no agreement in place. The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday after firing on its engine room, after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on commercial vessels. <\/p>\n
President Trump said talks would resume in Islamabad on Monday evening, while Iran\u2019s foreign ministry said no second round was scheduled. WTI crude rose more than 6% to above $89 per barrel. <\/p>\n
The US Dollar Index traded near six-week lows, while markets awaited events. Key releases are US Retail Sales on Tuesday and global flash PMI prints on Thursday. <\/p>\n
On the 15-minute chart, EUR\/USD traded at 1.1788 and remained above the daily open at 1.1749. Stochastic RSI was 82.0, in overbought territory. <\/p>\n
On the daily chart, EUR\/USD traded at 1.1788 and stayed above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The 50-day EMA was near 1.1669, the 200-day EMA near 1.1597, and Stochastic RSI was near 95. <\/p>\n
We remember looking back to this time in 2025, when the near-expiry of a US-Iran ceasefire sent WTI crude oil soaring over $89 per barrel. Despite the US Navy seizing an Iranian ship and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, currency markets remained surprisingly calm with the EUR\/USD holding near 1.1790. This complacency in the face of escalating conflict offers a valuable lesson for today.<\/p>\n
Given this history, we see the current WTI price of $85.10 as an under-appreciation of simmering geopolitical risk in the region. With tensions once again on the rise, purchasing out-of-the-money call options on oil futures for the coming weeks could provide a low-cost way to profit from a sudden spike. A repeat of last year’s escalation could easily send prices back towards the $90 mark.<\/p>\n
The currency market\u2019s reaction in 2025, where the US Dollar Index lingered near six-week lows, is mirrored by today\u2019s low VIX reading of 15.7. This suggests traders are again underpricing the risk of a flight to safety, which would strengthen the dollar. Buying put options on the EUR\/USD, currently trading at a much lower 1.0945, is a prudent hedge against a shock that sends capital rushing into the greenback.<\/p>\n
Unlike the thin economic calendar during the 2025 event, this week we face major data releases including US GDP figures and the Core PCE Price Index. This combination of simmering geopolitical risk and high-impact data could create far more volatility than we saw last year. The market’s quiet state presents a good opportunity to buy volatility through strategies like straddles on major currency pairs.<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s technical picture showed momentum was overstretched, hinting that a pullback was possible even as the broader trend was constructive. Today, we see a similar setup where low implied volatility suggests the market is not prepared for a sharp move in either direction. Therefore, structuring trades that benefit from a breakout, rather than betting on a specific direction, seems to be the most logical response.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD climbed 0.20% as USD weakened; Iran tensions lifted oil; traders awaited US data, PMIs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45423","targetHints":{"allow":["GET","POST","PUT","PATCH","DELETE"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45423"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45423\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45423"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45423"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}