EUR\/USD recovered from an early dip and returned to around 1.1760 after falling below 1.1730. Gains stayed capped under 1.1770, which matches lows from late last week.<\/p>\n
Market mood stayed cautious after US authorities seized an Iranian vessel and doubts grew about the ceasefire. Iran\u2019s foreign ministry said Tehran might not attend a second round of peace talks due to start next Tuesday.<\/p>\n
In Europe, Germany\u2019s Producer Price Index rose 2.5% month on month in March, the strongest reading since August 2022. The data followed stronger wholesale prices and higher consumer inflation in several EU countries last week, adding to expectations of higher ECB rates in coming months.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD traded just above 1.1750, with former support near 1.1770 now acting as resistance. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI eased to around 50 and the MACD histogram stayed negative.<\/p>\n
Support held between 1.1720 and 1.1740, with further levels at 1.1680 (April 13 low) and 1.1660 (late March trendline). Resistance sits at 1.1770, then 1.1825 (April 16 high) and 1.1850.<\/p>\n
We are seeing a familiar pattern of risk-off sentiment emerge, similar to what we observed around this time in 2025. The current tensions in the South China Sea are creating market anxiety, much like the US-Iran peace talk failures did last year. The US Dollar is gaining strength as a result, pushing EUR\/USD down toward the 1.0700 level.<\/p>\n
Last year’s concerns about European inflation, driven by events like the 2.5% jump in the March 2025 German PPI, have now faded. The European Central Bank is currently signaling potential rate cuts, with April 2026 inflation data showing a core rate of just 1.9%, below the bank’s target. This contrasts sharply with the hawkish pressure the ECB faced in 2025, adding further downward pressure on the Euro.<\/p>\n
Given this environment, buying EUR\/USD put options with a strike price below the key 1.0750 support level is a strategy to consider for the next few weeks. The Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index has risen 12% this month, suggesting options are pricing in larger moves, which could make this a profitable trade if the Euro weakens further. We are watching for a decisive break of that support, much like the 1.1680 level we monitored last April.<\/p>\n
This risk-off tone also makes short positions against commodity-linked currencies attractive. The Australian dollar is particularly vulnerable, as iron ore prices have fallen 9% in the last month due to revised global growth forecasts from the World Bank. A long USD\/AUD futures position or buying call options on the pair could benefit from this divergence.<\/p>\n
It is important to remain cautious, as geopolitical headlines can reverse market sentiment quickly. Using option spreads can help define risk in this volatile environment. We only need to look back to the market reversal in late 2024 to see how rapidly capital can flow out of safe-haven assets on positive news.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD rebounds to 1.1760; geopolitical risks cap gains; hot German PPI boosts ECB hike bets, resistance 1.1770.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45390"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45390\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}