Gold (XAU\/USD) was near-flat at $4,790 on Monday, supported by demand for the US Dollar amid threats to the US-Iran peace process. Over the past two weeks, it has traded in a horizontal channel, with resistance at $4,850.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s foreign ministry said it may skip the peace process after the US seized an Iranian cargo on Sunday, which Tehran called an \u201caggressive act\u201d and a ceasefire violation. Markets still price in a chance of talks resuming on Tuesday, limiting further US Dollar gains.<\/p>\n
Technically, gold remains neutral to slightly bearish below $4,850. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD is negative and the RSI is near 50, suggesting weaker upward momentum.<\/p>\n
Support has held around $4,730, with the channel base near $4,600. A break above $4,850 (April 8, 14, and 15 highs) would point towards resistance just above $5,000.<\/p>\n
Central banks are the largest holders of gold and often buy it to diversify reserves. They added 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest yearly purchase on record, with China, India, and Turkey among buyers.<\/p>\n
Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries and can also be inversely linked to risk assets. Its price can react to geopolitical tension, recession fears, and interest-rate changes, while remaining sensitive to US Dollar moves because it is priced in dollars.<\/p>\n
We remember looking at gold trading sideways around $4,790 in April 2025, caught between geopolitical jitters and a strong dollar. That tight range between $4,600 and $4,850 feels like a distant memory from today’s vantage point. Now, with the price consolidating well above the $5,200 mark, the market dynamics have clearly shifted.<\/p>\n
The trend of central bank accumulation has only accelerated since we saw those reports from 2022. The World Gold Council’s final numbers for 2025 showed another record year of net purchases, easily surpassing the 1,082 tonnes bought in 2023. This persistent demand from official sectors continues to build a solid floor under the market, absorbing any significant dips.<\/p>\n
Unlike last year, the primary concern now is stubbornly high inflation, with the latest March 2026 CPI data coming in at a sticky 3.8%. This environment has traders pricing in a pause from the Federal Reserve, with a potential rate cut now being considered for the third quarter. A pivot away from higher interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.<\/p>\n
Given this supportive backdrop, we see traders moving away from the flat or bearish bias some held in 2025. A viable strategy for the coming weeks is purchasing call options to capture potential upside beyond the current consolidation range. For those wanting to reduce costs, a bull call spread could limit premium outlay while still profiting from a measured move towards the $5,400 level.<\/p>\n
However, complacency is a risk, as geopolitical tensions in new hotspots could flare up unexpectedly, causing sharp, volatile swings. To prepare for this, some are considering long straddles, which would profit from a large price move in either direction. More cautious traders are simply buying out-of-the-money puts to hedge their long positions against a sudden reversal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Gold steady near $4,790 as Iran-US tensions boost dollar; technicals neutral-bearish below $4,850 resistance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45388\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}