EUR\/USD rebounded from the 1.1730\u20131.1725 area, a one-week low set in Asia, and has filled much of Monday\u2019s earlier gap. It is trading just above the mid-1.1700s after easing from the 1.1850 area, a two-month peak.<\/p>\n
The US Dollar has struggled to extend gains as expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate rise have weakened. Geopolitical risk linked to the US-Iran dispute over the Strait of Hormuz remains a factor that could support the Dollar and limit EUR\/USD rises.<\/p>\n
Technically, the pair is holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from the late-March low, but it remains below the 100-hour EMA. Momentum measures show RSI near 43 and MACD slightly below zero, pointing to sideways trade with a mild downside lean.<\/p>\n
Support levels include 1.1754 (23.6%), then 1.1695 (38.2%) and 1.1648 (50%) if declines continue. Resistance is near the 100-hour EMA at 1.1770, with a break higher exposing 1.1849.<\/p>\n
The report notes the analysis was produced with help from an AI tool.<\/p>\n
Looking back at the analysis from mid-2025, we were watching EUR\/USD struggle around the 1.1750 level. At the time, the market was pricing out Federal Reserve rate hikes, but geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz kept a floor under the dollar. This created a consolidative environment where the pair was capped by its 100-hour moving average.<\/p>\n
Today, the situation has evolved significantly, with the pair now trading near 1.1280. The interest rate divergence we only speculated about in 2025 became a reality, as the Fed enacted two further quarter-point hikes in late 2025 while the European Central Bank held steady. This is supported by recent data showing US core inflation holding at 2.8% year-over-year, while the latest Eurozone HICP figure has softened to just 2.1%.<\/p>\n
For the coming weeks, this divergence suggests strategies that favor a stronger dollar or a range-bound to weaker euro. With implied volatility in EUR\/USD options having risen to an 8-month high of 9.2%, buying puts to hedge against a drop below 1.1200 could be a prudent move. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads with a strike above 1.1400 might also be attractive to collect premium, capitalizing on the strong technical resistance now established at that level.<\/p>\n
Traders should also be mindful of the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which will be critical for the Fed’s future path. The market’s reaction to the 2025 US-Iran standoff taught us how quickly safe-haven flows can dominate fundamentals. Any unexpected escalation in current global trade discussions could cause a similar flight to the dollar, making long-dated protective puts more valuable.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD rebounded from weekly lows, dollar subdued on Fed doubts, while geopolitics and technicals cap upside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45352"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45352\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}