{"id":45223,"date":"2026-04-17T09:18:37","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T09:18:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/uncategorized\/45223\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T09:18:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T09:18:37","slug":"oil-slips-as-ceasefire-cools-panic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/analysis\/45223\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Slips as Ceasefire Cools Panic"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/1_Oil3-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-45843\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>CL-OIL trades at 89.637<\/strong>, up <strong>0.017 (+0.02%)<\/strong>, after a high of <strong>90.302<\/strong> and a low of <strong>89.347<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Brent fell 0.8% to $98.57<\/strong> and <strong>WTI dropped 1.1% to $93.61<\/strong> in early Europe as diplomacy improved sentiment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market still sees tight physical supply because the <strong>Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted for seven weeks<\/strong>, affecting about <strong>20% of global oil supply<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude has moved lower because the market is stripping out part of the war premium that built through March. A <strong>10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon<\/strong> and fresh talk of possible <strong>US-Iran discussions<\/strong> have reduced the need for immediate panic buying. That shift has pushed Brent back below <strong>$100<\/strong> and pulled WTI closer to the low <strong>$90s<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">CNBC Daily Open: Israel and Lebanon&#39;s 10-day ceasefire takes effect <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2eF4IFf547\">https:\/\/t.co\/2eF4IFf547<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/2045015040529465847?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 17, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The decline still looks more like a repricing of fear than a return to normal conditions. Traders are no longer treating every headline as a straight line toward escalation, but they are also not pricing a clean recovery in Gulf energy flows. That keeps oil softer than the March highs without turning the market outright bearish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A cautious near-term view still favours headline-driven volatility with prices supported above pre-war levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hormuz Still Controls The Floor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The biggest reason the downside has stayed limited is that the physical bottleneck has not been solved. The <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> remains the central issue because it handles roughly one-fifth<strong>of<\/strong><strong> global oil supply<\/strong>, and disruption there continues to distort flows, freight costs, and insurance pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Trump\u2019s plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz would halt the nearly 2 million barrels a day of Iranian oil that\u2019s been passing through the waterway, further squeezing global supply and cutting off a vital lifeline for the country. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nSLfR1CYl4\">https:\/\/t.co\/nSLfR1CYl4<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2043395012788879690?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 12, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>ING estimated the interruption at roughly <strong>13 million barrels per day<\/strong> of affected supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That means the market can fall on diplomacy without collapsing on it. Traders still need to see a more reliable reopening path before they price crude as though the supply shock is finished. Until then, every ceasefire headline removes some premium, but not all of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Focus on Trade Flow, Not Politics<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The pricing now reflects a simple distinction. Political calm helps. Physical normalisation matters more. Even if negotiations continue, crude stays supported as long as shipping remains patchy and inventories outside the Gulf keep doing more of the balancing work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A Pakistan-flagged tanker that entered the Persian Gulf over the weekend has become the first carrier to exit through the Strait of Hormuz with a crude cargo since a US blockade began on Monday <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AZkJV3XIt8\">https:\/\/t.co\/AZkJV3XIt8<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2045019730134659085?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 17, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>That is why the recent weakness in oil has been orderly rather than aggressive. Traders are more willing to sell the spike, but they are not yet willing to price a fully restored supply chain. The market still sees enough friction in the physical system to keep a floor under prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Broader Macro Story Has Improved, But Only Partly<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Lower oil has helped risk assets because it eases the inflation shock that had been tightening financial conditions. That support has shown up in equities and in a softer dollar tone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, crude is still far above the levels that would signal a fully normal energy backdrop, and that leaves central banks with less room to relax.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That makes the current oil move important for two reasons. First, it reduces immediate stagflation fear. Second, it still leaves enough supply stress in place to stop markets from getting too comfortable. That balance is why oil has come off the highs while remaining fundamentally elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CL-OIL Technical Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>CL-OIL is trading near <strong>89.64<\/strong>, continuing to drift lower after pulling back sharply from the recent high around <strong>119.43<\/strong>, with price now stabilising near the lower end of its recent range. The selloff has been steady, and recent price action suggests the market is attempting to find a base, though upside momentum remains weak for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a technical standpoint, the structure has shifted into a <strong>short-term bearish correction within a broader uptrend<\/strong>. Price is trading below the <strong>5-day (91.45)<\/strong> and <strong>10-day (97.01)<\/strong> moving averages, both of which are sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>20-day (97.43)<\/strong> sits just above, reinforcing a strong resistance cluster and signalling that bearish pressure is still in control in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/image-19-1024x454.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-47956\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Key levels to watch:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Support:<\/strong> 89.30 \u2192 87.15 \u2192 68.30<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance:<\/strong> 91.50 \u2192 97.00 \u2192 105.90<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil is currently hovering just above the <strong>89.30<\/strong> support area. A break below this level could open the path toward <strong>87.15<\/strong>, with further downside risk if selling pressure accelerates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the upside, <strong>91.50<\/strong> is acting as immediate resistance. A move back above this level could trigger a recovery toward <strong>97.00<\/strong>, though stronger confirmation would be needed to suggest a broader trend reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, CL-OIL is in a <strong>corrective phase with bearish momentum still present<\/strong>, as the market digests the prior rally. The next move will likely depend on whether support at <strong>89.30<\/strong> holds or gives way to further downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Traders Should Watch Next<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The next move depends on whether diplomacy produces real improvement in Gulf flows or just a pause in escalation. Watch the pace of shipping through Hormuz, the tone of any weekend US-Iran discussions, and whether Brent can stay below <strong>$100<\/strong> without triggering fresh concern over supply tightness. If flow confidence improves, crude can keep easing. If talks stall and transport remains constrained, the current dip may start to look too deep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Energies<\/a> on VT Markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/Insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Trader Questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<p><strong>Why Did Oil Prices Fall After The Ceasefire News?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude eased because the market removed part of the war premium after a <strong>10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon<\/strong> and fresh discussion of possible <strong>US-Iran talks<\/strong> reduced immediate escalation risk. That pushed <strong>Brent to $98.57<\/strong> and <strong>WTI to $93.61<\/strong> in early European trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why Haven\u2019t Oil Prices Fallen More Sharply?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The market still sees tight physical supply. Shipping disruption through the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, higher insurance costs, and operational friction are still limiting how quickly flows can normalise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why Does The Strait Of Hormuz Still Matter So Much?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because it handles about <strong>20% of global oil supply<\/strong>. Even partial disruption can keep freight costs high and leave the physical crude market tighter than headline diplomacy alone would suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Does A Ceasefire Mean The Oil Shock Is Over?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No. The ceasefire reduces immediate panic, but the supply story is still unresolved. The market still needs evidence that Gulf flows are moving more reliably before it prices a full return to normal conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why Is Oil Still Elevated Compared With Pre-War Levels?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because supply risk remains embedded in the market. Traders have cut some of the premium, but not all of it, since disrupted Middle East production and transport bottlenecks are still feeding into physical pricing.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CL-OIL trades near 89.64 as a ceasefire and Iran talk hopes weigh on prices, though Middle East supply risks still limit downside. | VT Markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":45220,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/Oil3-600x400.webp","featured_image_src_square":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/04\/Oil3-600x600.webp","author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45223"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45223\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}