GBP\/USD fell 0.1% to about 1.3545 in Thursday\u2019s European session and struggled to break above 1.3600. The move came as the US Dollar recovered, with the Dollar Index up 0.15% near 98.20.<\/p>\n
Risk appetite remained firm, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2% around 7,070. Markets focused on expectations of a US\u2013Iran permanent ceasefire, but no date was set for further talks.<\/p>\n
Pakistan\u2019s foreign ministry said on Thursday that dates for another round of US\u2013Iran discussions on a permanent ceasefire have not been finalised. This kept attention on geopolitical developments without new timelines.<\/p>\n
In the UK, February monthly GDP rose 0.5%, above the 0.1% forecast, according to the Office for National Statistics. The stronger reading contrasted with the day\u2019s softer Pound trading.<\/p>\n
Technically, the pair stayed above the 20-day EMA at 1.3410 and held the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3517. The 14-day RSI was 61.4.<\/p>\n
Resistance levels are 1.3601, 1.3720, and 1.3872. Support is at 1.3517, 1.3433, 1.3410, then 1.3329 and 1.3162.<\/p>\n
Looking back to early 2025, we remember when GBP\/USD was struggling to break the 1.3600 barrier despite a constructive technical bias and strong UK growth data. The market was optimistic about a potential US-Iran ceasefire, which kept the dollar in check but didn’t provide enough momentum for a sterling breakout. That resistance level remains a key battleground for the pair.<\/p>\n
As of today, April 16, 2026, the fundamental picture has shifted firmly in favor of the pound. The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data released this week showed UK core inflation remains sticky at 3.8%, putting significant pressure on the Bank of England to delay any rate cuts until the fourth quarter. This contrasts with the situation in 2025 when inflation was beginning to moderate more predictably.<\/p>\n
On the other side of the pair, recent US economic data has been softer, with last week’s retail sales figures showing a meager 0.2% increase against expectations of 0.5%. This has led to the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping to 97.45, well below the 98.20 level we saw during the consolidation period last year. The market is now pricing in a greater than 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut by September.<\/p>\n
Given this divergence in central bank policy, we see a clear opportunity for a topside break. Derivative traders should consider buying GBP\/USD call options to capitalize on a potential move through the long-standing 1.3600 resistance. Specifically, June 2026 calls with a strike price of 1.3650 offer good leverage to a rally towards the 1.3720 level mentioned in last year’s analysis.<\/p>\n
The primary risk remains a failure at the 1.3600 level, which has acted as a ceiling for over a year. We would view a decisive daily close below the 1.3517 mark as an invalidation of this bullish setup. Traders could use a bull call spread to limit the upfront premium cost while still participating in the potential upside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD dipped to 1.3545 as dollar firmed; UK GDP beat forecasts; traders watched US-Iran ceasefire developments closely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"josephine","author_link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/author\/josephine\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45129","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45129"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45129\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}